Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[Esker-pades]

Yes. Step 1: throw away the constraints and start again.

Which constraints? Because some (like speed limits) are quite important.

 

[liam456]

Yes. Step 1: throw away the constraints and start again.

That's what HS2 is! A clean slate with which these constraints can be mitigated through efficient design and high capacity.

 

[mmh]

Which constraints? Because some (like speed limits) are quite important.

The current stopping patterns will do to start with.

 

[liam456]

The current stopping patterns will do to start with.

Perhaps with a high capacity trunk line, without the need to deal with a-million-and-one intermediate stops, so that long distance travel can be properly catered for? Anyone know of a project to build a new line between London and Birmingham, which would give the WCML the breathing space it so sorely needs?

 

[mmh]

That's what HS2 is! A clean slate with which these constraints can be mitigated through efficient design and high capacity.

HS2 introduces no new capacity north of Birmingham. Where are all the new trains going to go after there?

 

[MarkyT]

I just don't accept that argument. If you need to be in London you'll get up 30 minutes earlier; if the 30 minute saving is to generate new traffic then the argument that HS2 is to satisfy natural growth falls over if it's actually to generate new traffic by its existence.

While nobody does or indeed can travel between Birmingham and London by air today except perhaps for a tiny number in private or executive charter craft, Phase 1 is about far more than the West Midlands right from day one, as trains from all over the North West and from Scotland will also transfer immediately to the new line, so resulting journey time improvements should assist in attracting mode transfer from air. As further phases are added, these journey times will improve still further, leveraging rails' advantages at each step. Also W. Midlands - S. East journeys that are non-competitive or marginal today by rail against road because of the time taken for connecting at each end into the Intercity leg may become more attractive if that segment becomes faster. So at least some of the growth is very likely to come from mode transfer, as has been seen over the longer term in all countries with extensive high speed networks. Mode transfer from either road or air is usually seen as a good thing. In addition HS2 moves high frequency very limited stop Pendolinos serving north western cities and Scotland away from the WCML fast lines, which creates capacity for alternative WCML services that can stop far more frequently at major intermediate towns and interchanges that get a very poor deal today.

 

[liam456]

HS2 introduces no new capacity north of Birmingham. Where are all the new trains going to go after there?

Onto a less crowded part of the WCML, where the Trent Valley + Birmingham loop(s) cater for long-distace travel acceptably. Or with HS2 Phase 2, even beyond Crewe.

 

[Esker-pades]

The current stopping patterns will do to start with.

So, we remove the current stopping patterns.

How many trains an hour will you have to the following cities?
Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Birmingham.

 

[mmh]

So, we remove the current stopping patterns.

How many trains an hour will you have to the following cities?
Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Birmingham.

No, you start with looking at the "local" stopping patterns, after all that is where extra capacity is needed and what HS2 is to improve, so I keep being told.

 

[Esker-pades]

No, you start with looking at the "local" stopping patterns, after all that is where extra capacity is needed and what HS2 is to improve, so I keep being told.

I usually start with the longer distance services and thread the stopping ones into the natural gaps, but you're the one doing the timetable here. How many "local" services would you have per hour? Where would they stop?

 

[liam456]

No, you start with looking at the "local" stopping patterns, after all that is where extra capacity is needed and what HS2 is to improve, so I keep being told.

That much is true, that HS2 improves local stopping patterns, but if you prioritise towards that, then IC travel will inevitably suffer. HS2 allows the balance between the two to maximise ultimate capacity.

 

[MarkyT]

HS2 introduces no new capacity north of Birmingham. Where are all the new trains going to go after there?

Yes it does. At Phase 2 it will have created an entirely new independent pair of tracks all the way from London to Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. How could that fail to be recognised as additional track capacity to accommodate the fastest trains, each of which can also be larger in passenger carrying capacity than those on the WCML they replace?

 

[mmh]

Yes it does. At Phase 2 it will have created an entirely new independent pair of tracks all the way from London to Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. How could that fail to be recognised as additional track capacity to accommodate the fastest trains, each of which can also be larger in passenger carrying capacity than those on the WCML they replace?

Phase 2 will never be built. Even if it were to be, it would be decades away. Where do all these HS2 trains go after Birmingham in the intervening years?

 

[Esker-pades]

Phase 2 will never be built. Even if it were to be, it would be decades away. Where do all these HS2 trains go after Birmingham in the intervening years?

Please, tell me more about how you can see into the future.

In the invertening years, trains will join the WCML in the Trent Valley section, or near Crewe.

 

[liam456]

Phase 2 will never be built. Even if it were to be, it would be decades away. Where do all these HS2 trains go after Birmingham in the intervening years?

How do you know Phase 2 will never be built? These HS2 trains rejoin the WCML where it is almost a 6 track railway. (Birmingham + Trent Valley loop(s))

 

[mmh]

Please, tell me more about how you can see into the future.

Experience!

 

[MarkyT]

Phase 2 will never be built. Even if it were to be, it would be decades away. Where do all these HS2 trains go after Birmingham in the intervening years?

Between Phase 1 and 2, I expect HS2 trains will use what approximate to Pendolino slots today north of Lichfield. Other services stopping at more intermediate stations will back fill the slots thus released at the south end of the WCML.

 

[liam456]

Experience!

With Parliamentary procedure? I see that the HS2 (West Midlands - Crewe) bills are at the committee stage right now, so what does that mean?

 

[EM2]

Yes. Step 1: throw away the constraints and start again.

Crack on then. Remove all the 'constraints' that you don't think that you need, and then show us the WCML timetable where no-one gets a worse service, trains are run safely, and you still manage to run more trains.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Phase 2 will never be built. Even if it were to be, it would be decades away. Where do all these HS2 trains go after Birmingham in the intervening years?

As a starting point, all the current 9tph VT out of Euston on the fast lines will move to HS2 south of Armitage (120 miles from Euston via Rugby).
That's all except the 1tph Voyager to Chester/North Wales (unless it has a bi-mode upgrade).
There will likely be additional services via HS2 to Liverpool and at least Preston.
The intention is to build Phase 2a (Lichfield-Crewe, 35 miles) by 2027, so effectively coincident with Phase 1.
That does away with the Colwich/Stafford bottleneck.
So you then have 158 miles of classic WCML to fill with trains with new destinations/stopping patterns on the old route.
Birmingham-North West-Scotland can also be diverted via HS2 to Crewe, relieving Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Stafford.

 

[mmh]

With Parliamentary procedure?

Yes, but that's not really what I meant, rather experience of the usual fate of collossal infrastructure projects.

I see that the HS2 (West Midlands - Crewe) bills are at the committee stage right now, so what does that mean?

It's where select committees review and listen to and question relevant parties (e.g. the dept. for transport and HS2 Ltd) and consider objections.

Personally I think *if* it gets built to Birmingham, it will be built to Crewe. I don't think the further stages will, not in most of our lifetimes.

 

[mmh]

Crack on then. Remove all the 'constraints' that you don't think that you need, and then show us the WCML timetable where no-one gets a worse service, trains are run safely, and you still manage to run more trains.

You're wedding everything to the current timetable. Where does this requirement that no-one gets a worse service come from? I was suggesting throwing the current timetable away, not fiddling with it.

 

[pt_mad]

...With that attitude, there's no guarantee that HS2 will improve things for those passengers who already don't fit into the rail industry's "preferred passenger" box. If HS2 means that we will be moving towards a 24/7 rail system then I'm all for it, but I suspect it won't be.

There really isn't a preferred passenger. As long as the passenger buys an applicable ticket and adheres to laws and bylaws, they will be a preferred passenger.

Note that many of the train companys' adverts on television are usually aimed towards family days out or cheap trips to the city for leisure. One TOC used to have an advert with a lady travelling in casual clothes dreaming of meeting her boyfriend as she glanced out of the Pendolino window. One other TOC had a long advert depicting scenes of the coast and from the South West and the Wiltshire corridor.

Don't think they were aimed at commuters tbh.

Yes. Step 1: throw away the constraints and start again.

It's simply not possible. Because the number of stops each station must have as a minimum are pretty much set in stone. Towns and cities are not likely to willingly go along with giving up a train every hour each way willy nilly without political opposition and cost.

Phase 2 will never be built. Even if it were to be, it would be decades away. Where do all these HS2 trains go after Birmingham in the intervening years?

It may be, it may not be .Until legislation is passed it's not certain.

Bit regardless of phase 2, phase 1 has a triangular junction not far from Birmingham International where a high-speed spur goes off to Birmingham City Centre, and the other route continues north to join the existing West Coast Mainline at Armitage just south of Rugeley Trent Valley.

Fast trains will take the high-speed route and rejoin the classic WCML at Armitage and continue north immediately after phase one opens.

Trains will also be able to leave Birmingham City Centre and head north along the high-speed section to Armitage and continue north on the classic WCML. Avoiding the Smethwick, Sandwell and Wolverhampton section.

 

[Esker-pades]

You're wedding everything to the current timetable. Where does this requirement that no-one gets a worse service come from? I was suggesting throwing the current timetable away, not fiddling with it.

Thus, you conceed that it is impossible to create a better service for everyone without HS2.

 

[class26]

Deleted

 

[EM2]

You're wedding everything to the current timetable. Where does this requirement that no-one gets a worse service come from?

It's been discussed at length by a number of posters that one of the reasons that they are against HS2 is that some stations will get a worse service than now. Is that not an issue then?

I was suggesting throwing the current timetable away, not fiddling with it.

Throw it away if you want. Plan the timetable that you think can be run. But if the WCML is not full, as you aver, then you'll be able to fit them all in and add more, surely?

 

[mmh]

There really isn't a preferred passenger. As long as the passenger buys an applicable ticket and adheres to laws and bylaws, they will be a preferred passenger.

Note that many of the train companys' adverts on television are usually aimed towards family days out or cheap trips to the city for leisure. One TOC used to have an advert with a lady travelling in casual clothes dreaming of meeting her boyfriend as she glanced out of the Pendolino window. One other TOC had a long advert depicting scenes of the coast and from the South West and the Wiltshire corridor.

Don't think they were aimed at commuters tbh.

Because the only reason the TOCs have for TV advertising is to try to increase revenue, and the only additional passengers they can attract are leisure / occaisonal travellers. The commuters are already travelling.

It's simply not possible. Because the number of stops each station must have as a minimum are pretty much set in stone. Towns and cities are not likely to willingly go along with giving up a train every hour each way willy Billy without political opposition and cost.

Anything is theoretically possible. Unpopular schemes and changes have been and will continue to be implemented.

It may be, it may not be .Until legislation is passed it's not certain.

It's not certain after it's passed either.

 

[mmh]

Thus, you conceed that it is impossible to create a better service for everyone without HS2.

No. It is impossible to create a better service for everyone with or without HS2. Without HS2 there's a better chance of one though.

HS2's biggest unsung potential is to decimate future rail expenditure for generations to come. Nothing it promises to deliver is worth that risk.

 

[KeithP]

It's quite rare these days to pass freight too. If freight is the issue, build a line for freight at a fraction of the cost of HS2. It isn't.

OK, so in one sentence you tell us there is not much freight and in the next propose building a line dedicated to freight. I wonder if anyone would object to a freight only line being built?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ah, the planning challenge again - "replicate the status quo, and look! It looks exactly the same as now!"

So how would you do it then?