Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[Ianno87]

Your two cases referenced are Okehampton and Blackburn - Clitheroe.

I agree that they don't need HS2 levels of investment. The Government should get on with it and reinstate them.

Only if the Government wants to be lumbered with a net operating subsidy for these services in perpetuity.

 

[Aictos]

Quote @TheHam "HS2 fris farom perfect, but what other option is there?"

I've suggested numerous things, often, and you've dismissed all of them. What answer would you like me to give?

Maybe because time after time your "solutions" have been proven to be unworkable and doesn't actually achieve anything.

Other posters have stated why with answers backed up by evidence, so that ought answer your query.

 

[EM2]

Quote @TheHam "HS2 fris farom perfect, but what other option is there?"

I've suggested numerous things, often, and you've dismissed all of them. What answer would you like me to give?

Not dismissed, but argued against with evidence and facts.

 

[6Gman]

Quote @TheHam "HS2 fris farom perfect, but what other option is there?"

I've suggested numerous things, often, and you've dismissed all of them. What answer would you like me to give?

One that works? If there isn't one that works then perhaps HS2 is the best answer?

 

[Glenn1969]

I'm a Northerner. I back HS2 but fear I won't live long enough to see the benefit of it given that I will be approaching 65 before all phases are open

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm a Northerner. I back HS2 but fear I won't live long enough to see the benefit of it given that I will be approaching 65 before all phases are open

If you live on the WCML and ever go to London you'll benefit from phase 1, if only in terms of reliability and a very small journey time decrease. A big part of taking fast line services off the south WCML is to stop it being quite as much of a house of cards.

 

[yorksrob]

Only if the Government wants to be lumbered with a net operating subsidy for these services in perpetuity.

If the wider socio-economic benefits justify the expenditure, why not subsidise these services in perpetuity ?

It's laughable that people purport to 'support the railway' because they support HS2, whilst espousing sub-Beeching nonsense.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Quote @TheHam "HS2 fris farom perfect, but what other option is there?"

I've suggested numerous things, often, and you've dismissed all of them. What answer would you like me to give?

But you've never suggested anything *credible* All the things you've ever suggested either takes the form of meaningless soundbites ("smart timetabling" for which as far as I can see you've never been able to clarify what that actually means), or supposed solutions which anyone with decent railway knowledge can immediately see would be totally inadequate to solve the actual capacity issues that HS2 is designed to solve ('longer trains'). No-one's expecting you to come up with detailed timetables and business cases, but if you can't at least respond to the obvious points people make about lack of credibility in your proposals, and give some idea of how you'd propose to make your ideas work - and listen to those on this forum who actually do have professional knowledge about how to make a railway timetable work - then almost noone is going to take what you say seriously.

 

[Glenn1969]

I live on the ECML, don't go to London that often but am one of British basketball's biggest fans so do do a reasonable amount of travel around the country. At the moment there are some journeys with the club I run that I can't make by train because last trains are too early to make connections or connections are impractical. That particularly applies when travelling Birmingham/East Midlands/Sheffield to Calder Valley stations. I need Phase 2 journey time improvements to help me make journeys to games by train that I currently I have to rely on lifts for (I don't drive because of poor eyesight)

 

[keithboddey]

I wish we could see actual West Coast Main Line train loadings.

To spend all this money while the figures are withheld is ridiculous.

 

[EM2]

I wish we could see actual West coast train loading's.
To spend all this money while the figures are withheld is ridiculous.

Those that need to know, know.

 

[mmh]

Those that need to know, know.

That sort of approach to scrutiny of government spending isn't popular, and rightly so.

 

[EM2]

That sort of approach to scrutiny of government spending isn't popular, and rightly so.

Try an FOI request then?

 

[Chester1]

I suspect the 4-car (actually 5 at the moment) trains the OP saw were all LO ones?

I suppose they could consider relaying the DC line to 100mph with OHLE, introducing a skip stop style service, and lopping back the Bakerloo, but I don't think it would be a popular move.

This is the sort of desperate idea which will have to be considered if HS2 is cancelled. The best way would probably be to segregate 2 tracks between Milton Keynes and Euston for with new tilting units running Northampton services, which on a 2 track railway would be unable to stop south of Milton Keynes. The remaining 2/4 tracks could then be used for a range of stopping services + freight. That would be the DC services, Tring stoppers and new services to compensate for Northampton services not stopping south of Milton Keynes. Basically every station would need to be rebuilt and Euston would still need expanding. Probably easier just to build two new tracks for intercity services....

 

[Andrew1395]

Send all the Northampton - London services via Bedford if we are coming up with odd alternative ways to spend the HS2 budget. After all it has less than half the users of Watford Junction. You could close the DC between Bushey and South Hampstead, but that's not going to help the WCML between Watford and Preston. Frankly in the next 25 years London is going to have to maximise its local railways like the DC infrastructure, while strategic Inter regional traditional routes like the WCML will also need to find ways to maximise its contribution to the UK economy. Neither are either/ors to HS2.

 

[Chester1]

Send all the Northampton - London services via Bedford if we are coming up with odd alternative ways to spend the HS2 budget. After all it has less than half the users of Watford Junction. You could close the DC between Bushey and South Hampstead, but that's not going to help the WCML between Watford and Preston. Frankly in the next 25 years London is going to have to maximise its local railways like the DC infrastructure, while strategic Inter regional traditional routes like the WCML will also need to find ways to maximise its contribution to the UK economy. Neither are either/ors to HS2.

Its still a better idea than "smart timetabling"!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Basically every station would need to be rebuilt and Euston would still need expanding. Probably easier just to build two new tracks for intercity services....

And what name could we give that kind of scheme? 2 letters and a number, maybe?

If it would save substantial money I wouldn't object to reducing its speed to say 140mph and just using Pendolinos or 80x. But I doubt it would make that much difference.

 

[The Ham]

I wish we could see actual West coast train loading's.
To spend all this money while the figures are withheld is ridiculous.

From:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13408.htm

Daily seats on Virgin train in 2013 is 74,000, at the time the daily usage of seats was 43%.

Assuming that the number of seats hasn't changed and that the 30% growth seen between London and the West Midlands is fairly standard the seat occupancy rate would be 56% which collates with the whole of Euston figure of 60%.

Add in a further 25% growth to get us to 2026 and it hits 70% of seats are used across all services.

That's going to make for quite a few uncomfortable journeys. If there a delay and a further 25% growth occurs (let's say until 2033), then we'd hit 87% of so capacity was being used.

 

[Bald Rick]

From:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13408.htm

Daily seats on Virgin train in 2013 is 74,000, at the time the daily usage of seats was 43%.

Assuming that the number of seats hasn't changed and that the 30% growth seen between London and the West Midlands is fairly standard the seat occupancy rate would be 56% which collates with the whole of Euston figure of 60%.

Add in a further 25% growth to get us to 2026 and it hits 70% of seats are used across all services.

That's going to make for quite a few uncomfortable journeys. If there a delay and a further 25% growth occurs (let's say until 2033), then we'd hit 87% of so capacity was being used.

And those are averages. By the same measure, the M1 is at about 30%* capacity. But just you try to drive from MK to Watford at 0730.

*made up number, but probably about right.

 

[Chester1]

And what name could we give that kind of scheme? 2 letters and a number, maybe?

If it would save substantial money I wouldn't object to reducing its speed to say 140mph and just using Pendolinos or 80x. But I doubt it would make that much difference.

140mph might make a substantial difference to the cost of tunnelled sections. HS1 is limited to 140mph in tunnels, presumably because of cost. The cost difference in open air would be very small. If HS2 is merged in with NPR (in one way or another), then 140mph for a Liverpool spur and then to Piccadilly would make sense because realistically any new transpennine line would be unlikely to be faster than that.

From:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13408.htm

Daily seats on Virgin train in 2013 is 74,000, at the time the daily usage of seats was 43%.

Assuming that the number of seats hasn't changed and that the 30% growth seen between London and the West Midlands is fairly standard the seat occupancy rate would be 56% which collates with the whole of Euston figure of 60%.

Add in a further 25% growth to get us to 2026 and it hits 70% of seats are used across all services.

That's going to make for quite a few uncomfortable journeys. If there a delay and a further 25% growth occurs (let's say until 2033), then we'd hit 87% of so capacity was being used.

In the event of HS2 being cancelled the north would be OK for several years, hopefully long enough for HS2 to be reinstated or something similar. The southern WCML will be a mess though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the event of HS2 being cancelled the north would be OK for several years, hopefully long enough for HS2 to be reinstated or something similar. The southern WCML will be a mess though.

Even if it's just a pair of 125mph tracks, that's why the London-Brum section is needed more than ever. Though you could just about get away with it being London-Bletchley[1] if you really wanted to cut costs - it's the part of the line south of MKC that's really congested, and a fair chunk of the WCML betweel BLY and MKC is already 6-tracked with 2 tracks near enough unused, or 5-tracked just south of MKC itself.

[1] Not proposing having it stop at BLY, just because the only way into MK that wouldn't involve knocking a load of houses down would be to approach Bletchley from the south west.

 

[Esker-pades]

Even if it's just a pair of 125mph tracks, that's why the London-Brum section is needed more than ever. Though you could just about get away with it being London-Bletchley[1] if you really wanted to cut costs - it's the part of the line south of MKC that's really congested, and a fair chunk of the WCML betweel BLY and MKC is already 6-tracked with 2 tracks near enough unused, or 5-tracked just south of MKC itself.

[1] Not proposing having it stop at BLY, just because the only way into MK that wouldn't involve knocking a load of houses down would be to approach Bletchley from the south west.

If it became that short I would happily join the PR1Berske club.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If it became that short I would happily join the PR1Berske club.

If it did it'd still provide some of the capacity and reliability benefits - though I accept no speed increase.

 

[The Ham]

And those are averages. By the same measure, the M1 is at about 30%* capacity. But just you try to drive from MK to Watford at 0730.

*made up number, but probably about right.

Indeed, it's easy to see the 43% full (which no longer exists) and day look there's lots of spare capacity, which at the time the probably was a reasonable amount as it was just after the 11 coach units had been delivered.

Getting a seat starts getting difficult after about 70% full on individual trains, 70% full on all trains would mean full and standing on a lot of services.

 

[Bald Rick]

140mph might make a substantial difference to the cost of tunnelled sections. HS1 is limited to 140mph in tunnels, presumably because of cost.

HS1 is only limited to 230kph London side of Ebbsfleet; some of that is due to the single bore tunnel cross section, it’s also about alignment and some other factors. The north downs tunnel is 300kph.

The difference in cost for building a slightly larger tunnel is almost negligible in the scheme of things. It’s basically a slightly larger TBM (perhaps a couple of £million), and more muck away / linings in. All the other costs are the same.

Even if it's just a pair of 125mph tracks, that's why the London-Brum section is needed more than ever. Though you could just about get away with it being London-Bletchley[1] if you really wanted to cut costs - it's the part of the line south of MKC that's really congested, and a fair chunk of the WCML betweel BLY and MKC is already 6-tracked with 2 tracks near enough unused, or 5-tracked just south of MKC itself.

If it did it'd still provide some of the capacity and reliability benefits - though I accept no speed increase.

A pair of fast lines Euston to MK would release perhaps two ‘fast’ paths to beyond MK. They couldn’t go to Birmingham (no capacity there), so would have to go to Manchester / Liverpool / Preston or somewhere short of there. Indeed I have my doubts about Manchester too, but don’t know the capacity constraints on the approaches to Piccadilly.

Given that the southerly stretch of HS2 into Euston is by far the most difficult and expensive, this means you would get around 50% of the cost of Phase 1 for about 20% of the capacity benefit and next to none of the speed benefit. Not to mention delaying the project by about 8 years whilst the existing act is ripped up and started again.

 

[Peter Kelford]

OK, like some evidence like this:
View media item 3340
Looking at the numbers on the table between London and the West Midlands/North West there's now about 10 million (as the figures are in thousands) extra trips being made every year.

That's about 27,000 extra a day, filling an extra 39 trains (assuming 100% seat occupancy) with 429 coaches between them.

That doesn't even allow for Scotland or North Wales, which although have seen smaller and are split over more than one route would only add to those problems.

Based on that can you start to understand why adding a few extra coaches and a few extra trains here and there isn't going to cut it when trying to provide the capacity needed.

It's why those who have looked at the information are more and more thinking, "you know what we do need HS2, or at least something very much like it".

HS2 is far from perfect, but what other option is there? Even if there is one it's probably too late to start design work on it to be able to deliver it within the timeframe.

No-one has to answer impossible to answer questions. Trolls tend to get dehumanised. Don't dehumanise someone who's done nothing wrong.

Either way, HS2 is, in a pure socio-economic context, a good first step. However, there's a good reason we don't have already have a couple of high speed lines. One such thing is called an anti-rail protest groups, which are able to command a larger minority than in other countries. Two, the costs of HSR in the UK are perhaps 10x higher than other developed countries. Three, the politicians guide the process rather than politicians who are guided by the professionals.

Furthermore, the next generation of travel threatens to render HS2 useless. The next generation could be faster air travel with innovative security, it could be autonomous road vehicles, the hyperloop or anything else. At the same time, ticket prices on HS2 will be prohibitive, whilst it will be possible to do most things on the internet. Most travellers in the near future will be happy to take an extra 40 minutes on their journey in order to save £50.

To finish off, I will answer The Ham's question: Install cab signalling, give the current line a top speed of 140mph (which the Pendolinos are capable of) and add a few extra tracks. It's cheaper than HS2 and has a similar effect. To finish off, HS2 will end up being £60 billion+. What choice do we have but to cancel it?

 

[Adsy125]

Install cab signalling, give the current line a top speed of 140mph (which the Pendolinos are capable of) and add a few extra tracks.

So we’re going to build these extra 140mph tracks, but to add extra capacity Euston will need to be rebuilt and more platforms added. Then let’s look at the alignment. There are 1000s of houses right next to the WCML which would be very difficult to demolish, so why not build the fast lines on a different shorter alignment, especially if we want the 140mph capability everywhere, and these fast trains won’t be stopping. Hmmm... looks a lot like a 140mph HS2 to me...

 

[anme]

To finish off, I will answer The Ham's question: Install cab signalling, give the current line a top speed of 140mph (which the Pendolinos are capable of) and add a few extra tracks. It's cheaper than HS2 and has a similar effect. To finish off, HS2 will end up being £60 billion+. What choice do we have but to cancel it?

Please provide evidence that your plan will be cheaper than HS2.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

From:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13408.htm

Daily seats on Virgin train in 2013 is 74,000, at the time the daily usage of seats was 43%.

Assuming that the number of seats hasn't changed and that the 30% growth seen between London and the West Midlands is fairly standard the seat occupancy rate would be 56% which collates with the whole of Euston figure of 60%.

Was 2013 before or after the extra Pendolinos were added and quite a few of the existing ones were extended from 9 to 11 carriages?

 

[Peter Kelford]

Was 2013 before or after the extra Pendolinos were added and quite a few of the existing ones were extended from 9 to 11 carriages?

I'm afraid that it was just before. However, the remaining 9-car sets could be upgraded.