Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[43096]

The delivery of 2,600 vehicles isn't failure.

It is if they are delivered years late and are riddled with faults.

 

[stuu]

The delivery of 2,600 vehicles isn't failure.

A quarter of them are four years late and still don't work properly. That's not the best advert

 

[Dan G]

No its not but building some of them to such a poor quality that no one wants to order more is failure.

As far as I know today's Aventra hasn't lost any tenders it's been entered for (the Thameslink bid was an earlier version subsequently redesigned).

It's the lack of tenders that's the problem for Litchurch Lane.

 

[45076]

A quarter of them are four years late and still don't work properly. That's not the best advert

They do work, 345's, 710's, 720's and the 730's that have been introduced work. It's SWR's management that doesn't appear to work.

 

[Invincible]

No its not but building some of them to such a poor quality that no one wants to order more is failure.

But was mostly due to having to sort shorter cabs during COVID and the bad discussion to outsource software to save costs.

 

[Bornin1980s]

The worst part is the government refuses to give up and keeps chasing the illusive export orders - ironically making decisions that weaken the domestic potential for the industry.

We chose the AGR over the SGHWR because it was considered to have more export potential, but it never sold a reactor abroad and we ended up with an operationally inferior nuclear fleet.
Or just buying the CANDU as was originally proposed.

Then there is this whole mess, we've created a mess of train producers, none of which is able to truly compete with manufacturers abroad.

Other countries have created successful export industries. Why are we so uniquely bad at it?

 

[Invincible]

Surely got to add to that other 15x units at other TOCs (EMR, GWR and SWR), not just the ones at Northern? Makes little sense replacing the Northern ones and none of the others - beneficial to replace them all in one go.

Or spread out 15x replacement orders so the UK factories have a steady stream of work over several years, rather than another "boom and bust".

Ideally there should be an Aventra prototype version of the fast charge battery 230 train testing on various lines.

Other countries have created successful export industries. Why are we so uniquely bad at it?

For trains there are different requirements in other countries, it must be possible to get some flexibility in UK factories to economically produce trains for export (as in the past). But the market is getting competitive.

 

[stuu]

Other countries have created successful export industries. Why are we so uniquely bad at it?

Because we don't support them, other countries visibly ignore things like EU procurement rules, but we never do. Then you have shareholders who are only interested in short-term money making, and not investing for the future etc. Can anyone imagine France letting its last steelworks close?

 

[HSTEd]

Other countries have created successful export industries. Why are we so uniquely bad at it?

Survivorship bias, we only hear about the ones that succeed.

There is a long list of failed attempts that noone outside that country ever hears about.
In addition, countries that succeed often don't set out to chase exports, it happens organically.

 

[Trainman40083]

Or spread out 15x replacement orders so the UK factories have a steady stream of work over several years, rather than another "boom and bust".

Ideally there should be an Aventra prototype version of the fast charge battery 230 train testing on various lines.

For trains there are different requirements in other countries, it must be possible to get some flexibility in UK factories to economically produce trains for export (as in the past). But the market is getting competitive.

For other European countries, they can deliver rolling stock by rail from the factory to a port or customer. From British factories, they would have to go by road... Whilst the track gauge is the same across most of Europe , the loading gauge isn't.

 

[Meerkat]

Is it possible to create a steady stream of work for four factories?
I'm guessing either a steady stream for fewer, maybe, but still very hard to organise within procurement regulations.

 

[JonathanH]

Other countries have created successful export industries. Why are we so uniquely bad at it?

We have higher expectations for pay than we can afford in a global market.

 

[QSK19]

Or spread out 15x replacement orders so the UK factories have a steady stream of work over several years, rather than another "boom and bust".

Yes I did indeed mean to spread out the orders - I meant my comment more to get the order to cover all the 15x in one go.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Labour proposals say they admire the Swiss model for railways, managed by SBB.
Switzerland indeed has an enviable railway system, though its fares are not cheap.
I wonder if Labour realises how much autonomy there is across the Swiss network, with private investment in many places.
Much of the network is supported and specified by cantonal authorities rather than at the federal centre.
Major decisions, such as building new alpine tunnels, are also taken by referendum, not by the Prime Minister of the day and his advisors.
Rolling stock provision is outsourced (admittedly mainly to Swiss manufacturers).

PS This post was really intended for the Labour GBR announcement thread, but the rolling stock mention above still applies here.

 

[QSK19]

Major decisions, such as building new alpine tunnels, are also taken by referendum, not by the Prime Minister of the day and his advisors.

I think there’d be a few Brendas from Bristol under that system

NB: that’s the woman who said “not another one [general election]!” ahead of the 2017 election .

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think there’d be a few Brendas from Bristol under that system
NB: that’s the woman who said “not another one [general election]!” ahead of the 2017 election .

From what I can see, individual referenda are included in the regular election cycle, so you vote for multiple issues on the same day as electing a government.
So "Brenda" can rest easy...

 

[Dan G]

Other countries have created successful export industries. Why are we so uniquely bad at it?

UK exports plenty of manufactured goods; $40bn of cars (JLR, Nissan, MINI, Aston Martin/McLaren/Bentley/Rolls Royce in smaller volumes); $30bn of jet engines (Rolls Royce), medicines (loads of manufacturers), and, leaving aside oil and traded gold, whiskey!

(Plus a lot of aircraft parts such as Airbus wings, F-35 rear fuselages, A220 wings and lots of other parts)

Historically we've exported few trains as the British loading guage is rather smaller than that used elsewhere in the world.

Is it possible to create a steady stream of work for four factories?
I'm guessing either a steady stream for fewer, maybe, but still very hard to organise within procurement regulations.

I don't think so. We need to buy 400-500 vehicles a year and Litchurch Lane is capable of 300-400 per year, so really there's a market for maybe two factories (plus Siemens building tube trains).

 

[Peter Sarf]

UK exports plenty of manufactured goods; $40bn of cars (JLR, Nissan, MINI, Aston Martin/McLaren/Bentley/Rolls Royce in smaller volumes); $30bn of jet engines (Rolls Royce), medicines (loads of manufacturers), and, leaving aside oil and traded gold, whiskey!

(Plus a lot of aircraft parts such as Airbus wings, F-35 rear fuselages, A220 wings and lots of other parts)

Historically we've exported few trains as the British loading guage is rather smaller than that used elsewhere in the world.


I don't think so. We need to buy 400-500 vehicles a year and Litchurch Lane is capable of 300-400 per year, so really there's a market for maybe two factories (plus Siemens building tube trains).

My bold. Sticking to procurement from solely UK factories would not fit the competition rules but we could then threaten to buy from abroad if the bids from UK factories are not competitive enough. Stadler Flirt anybody ? - hmmmm.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Survivorship bias, we only hear about the ones that succeed.

There is a long list of failed attempts that noone outside that country ever hears about.
In addition, countries that succeed often don't set out to chase exports, it happens organically.

Might one british problem be the one-time policy of creating massive 'national champions', meaning that if one company fails, the entire industry goes with it?

 

[HSTEd]

Might one british problem be the one-time policy of creating massive 'national champions', meaning that if one company fails, the entire industry goes with it?

I doubt it, given that most countries that have suceeded also have 'National Champions'.

I think the primary problem is an attempt to design the products of the industry for export orders, and then discovering that you've crippled your domestic capability as a result.

 

[Invincible]

Might one british problem be the one-time policy of creating massive 'national champions', meaning that if one company fails, the entire industry goes with it?

GEC made profits in excess of £1 billion per year at its peak in the 1990s.
Unscrupulous investors then broke it up for cash rather than long term growth.

 

[Nottingham59]

GEC made profits in excess of £1 billion per year at its peak in the 1990s.
Unscrupulous investors then broke it up for cash rather than long term growth.

Yes, and GEC effectively bankrupted itself by overpaying around $1.5bn for FORE systems and other acquisitions in cash rather than paper, at the height of the dot-com bubble.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

GEC made profits in excess of £1 billion per year at its peak in the 1990s.
Unscrupulous investors then broke it up for cash rather than long term growth.

Plus they wanted out of the loss-making GEC-Alsthom JV so they could invest in defence for US sales.
BAe sold off their Airbus stake for the same reason - just when Airbus sales took off big time.
Rolls Royce stuck to big jets while the serious money went with small jets (A320/B737).

British Exceptionalism and City short-termism are largely to blame.
Our reluctance to invest in China once it opened up also cost the UK dear - France and Germany (particularly) gained huge markets there while we sat on our hands (although the City made a lot of money from those investments).

BREL was not a "national champion" in any sense, after we gave up on the APT.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Is 'The City' the main reason our companies keep being sold to foreign buyers?

 

[Mikey C]

UK exports plenty of manufactured goods; $40bn of cars (JLR, Nissan, MINI, Aston Martin/McLaren/Bentley/Rolls Royce in smaller volumes); $30bn of jet engines (Rolls Royce), medicines (loads of manufacturers), and, leaving aside oil and traded gold, whiskey!

(Plus a lot of aircraft parts such as Airbus wings, F-35 rear fuselages, A220 wings and lots of other parts)

And we do export buses too. This week Wrightbus announced an order for 46 hydrogen buses from Germany

 

[Pinus contorta]

And we do export buses too. This week Wrightbus announced an order for 46 hydrogen buses from Germany

Thats not an easy comparison as Wright Bus are based in Northern Ireland. Is there still a slightly different trade arrangement towards the EU ? I don't know. I struggle to keep up with everything.

 

[HSTEd]

And we do export buses too. This week Wrightbus announced an order for 46 hydrogen buses from Germany

To contrast with the Nuclear Industry's AGR experience, Wrightbus didn't force the purchase of nothing but left hand drive buses to improve the chance of export orders!

 

[PG]

leaving aside oil and traded gold, whiskey!

[pedant alert] I think you'll find that the product we export is whisky!

 

[hwl]

Wrightbus didn't force the purchase of nothing but left hand drive buses to improve the chance of export orders!

Quite a few of the German and Swiss bus buyers have had enough of certain German bus builders (including notably MAN based products) and have been looking else where and Alexander Dennis has been doing moderately well as result.

 

[Chester1]

Because we don't support them, other countries visibly ignore things like EU procurement rules, but we never do. Then you have shareholders who are only interested in short-term money making, and not investing for the future etc. Can anyone imagine France letting its last steelworks close?

France may not have let its last virgin steelworks close but I bet they get most if not all the iron ore from outside France. Switching to electric arc furnaces for recycled steel is cheaper and doesn’t fundamentally make our security worse. Port Talbot will have the worlds biggest electric furnace and two new normal sized furnances are being built elsewhere.

The problem with a manufacturing based economy if you are developed country is that you are reliant on two things. First is sufficient internal demand and this is a problem when your population is aging because younger and middle aged adults buy more material goods than older adults, even though the latter spend more overall. The second problem that Germany is really suffering from is that you end up being reliant on trade with countries that are a geopolitical risk (Russia and China) or whose economies may start growing slower (China).

Our problem is that we import far too much that we don't need, not that we don't make enough stuff like trains. Our services exports are very healthy.