4-car units with 20m carriages might be alright for the Valleys, I don't know. Certainly corridor connections are a must for anything shorter than that to allow effective multiple working.
How many sprinter operated diagrams are there outside the area likely to be electrified?
THat might be a better approach than trying to subtract units from the existing allotment.
That's a good idea, but you should consider services that other areas would like to have, not just what they have now. For example, in, south-west Wales, I think the Pembroke Dock and Milford Haven lines should both have an hourly service (though that will be difficult for Pembroke Dock) and there should be a train every two/three hours to Fishguard. There should be an hourly express (Swansea district line) service using 158s between Carmarthen and Cardiff. This would either extend to Fishguard every two hours (requirement about 4 units) or would extend to Milford every two hours with a trip to Fishguard in 3 of the remaining hours. (6 units I think). At least one Pembrokeshire train every two hours, and one in the other hours from Carmarthen, would go to Cardiff via Swansea (as now with the Manchester train) and would probablly be 175s. The other Pembrokeshire services would go just to Swansea with a 156/double153. Openning some Swansea valley lines (Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen and Glyn-Neath for starters) would take a few 150s also.
Wales class 150/153 diagrams - Current (Potential)
- Conwy Valley Line - 1 diagram (increased frequency and/or extention to Trawsfydnydd could push that up to 2 or 3)
- Wrexham - Bidston - 2 diagrams (2)
- Shrewsbury - Crewe stopper - 1 diagram
- Evening Fishguard Service - 1 diagram
- Pembroke Dock - Swansea & 09:56 FGH - Carmarthen - 3 diagrams (no idea how many units making Pembroke & Milford Haven hourly would need)
- HOWL
I think that's over 10 diagrams before you start improving services and re-openning lines.
Wales class 158 diagrams - Current (Potential)
- Chester - Crewe shuttle - 1
- Aberystwyth/Pwllheli - Birmingham - Holyhead (assuming 2-car only between Shrewsbury and Holyhead) - 15 diagrams (17 with hourly Aberystwyth - Birmingham (portion working with the Birmingham - Holyheads))
- Cardiff - Cheltenham Spa - 3 units (4 if the gaps are removed to make it fully hourly) (158s as things stand) Cheltenham - Maesteg is 4 units right now I think (1 being a 150), plus a 150 that comes in from Fishguard in the evening, but I don't think Maesteg should be linked to Cheltenham, should go to Ebbw Vale instead and be electrified.
Apart from what I've gathered from other posters on here, the above is just my assumptions/guesses based on studying the timetable. If anyone knows the actual diagrams feel free to correct me, and fill in the areas I haven't worked out.
Holyhead/Chester/Shrewsbury- Birmingham- Shrewsbury- Cambrian is one homogenous loop of 158's. There's 17 units at moment but this summers strengthening will see 20 158's on it.
Having it all in one loop is a real pain. Ideally Holyhead - Birmingham would be 175s or LHCS to allow the 158s to run an hourly Cambrian service and some Cardiff - Pembrokeshire express trips, but it can't be done without either north Wales or the Cambrian loosing their direct Birminghams. Interesting that your figure for the current service comes out as 2 units more than mine (above), I guess there must be some Holyhead - Shrewsburys that are 4-car even now. With 20 158s on the curcuit this summer, you probablly need the other 4 spare (esspecially given one of those will still be in the refurb process) which means no 158s anywhere else on ATW. I think that also puts a dead stop to Cambrian hourly, unless 97s turn out to be able to keep to 158 times with ATW's mark 2s, as the curcuit will have swallowed up the entire nation's ERTMS fitted train fleet.
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What's going to happen with the 23 class 377s that First Capital Connect have when the Thameslink stock arrives (and when will that happen)? I thought they were supposed to go back to Southern, but because the new Thameslink stock is going to be late Southern ordered more 337s instead. So, when FCC is done with those 23 377s, could some of them (say 15) donate a coach each to lengthen some Southern sets and therefore send 15 3-car 377s to the Valleys alongside older 4-car units. Maesteg - Ebbw Vale could use 4 of these 377s, with some more on Swanline (perhaps coupling with the second Maesteg each hour at Bridgend). There might just be enough left over to have one or two 6-car sets up the valleys too.