Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[D1009]

Me.

There wasn't a PDF of it this morning session so I couldn't copy and paste. This teach me for writing a post in a hurry while in work.

No worries. To me it would have been hilarious if Plaid Cymru had misspelt the places in their election manifesto

 

[Envoy]

So Plaid Cymru would spend a huge amount of money building railways to connect up the sparsely populated west yet not build the new 3 lane (each way) south of Newport M4! If they did anything at Newport, it would be a 2 lane (each way) improvement following much of the alignment of the southern distributor road. Does anyone really think that a 2 lane each way route south of Newport would cope with the massive traffic flows? Even the 2 lane sections at Port Talbot are jammed up during peak times. It would just be a massive amount of money spent to not solve the problem.

(Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Liberal Democrats and of course The Greens, are against building a new 'black route' motorway south of Newport. Labour and the Conservatives are for the building of a new motorway with 3 lanes each way).

PS. Plaid Cymru also said that they would abolish the Severn Bridge tolls for the Welsh residents but not those from England. The English have got just as much right to use the Severn bridges on the same terms as people living in Wales. Indeed, it surely is in the best interest of Wales that people from England can cross into Wales toll free so as to encourage tourism & trade.

 

[Gareth Marston]

So Plaid Cymru would spend a huge amount of money building railways to connect up the sparsely populated west yet not build the new 3 lane (each way) south of Newport M4! If they did anything at Newport, it would be a 2 lane (each way) improvement following much of the alignment of the southern distributor road. Does anyone really think that a 2 lane each way route south of Newport would cope with the massive traffic flows? Even the 2 lane sections at Port Talbot are jammed up during peak times. It would just be a massive amount of money spent to not solve the problem.

(Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Liberal Democrats and of course The Greens, are against building a new 'black route' motorway south of Newport. Labour and the Conservatives are for the building of a new motorway with 3 lanes each way).

PS. Plaid Cymru also said that they would abolish the Severn Bridge tolls for the Welsh residents but not those from England. The English have got just as much right to use the Severn bridges on the same terms as people living in Wales. Indeed, it surely is in the best interest of Wales that people from England can cross into Wales toll free so as to encourage tourism & trade.

The M4 so called relief road is the stupidest project going as it will just create new Jams elsewhere and destroy the transport budget for anything else. I don't think Plaid has grasped the primary reason why it's so dumb but realise it will preclude spending "on their areas".

Yes the Severn toll plans from Plaid will see homeless people from hostels in Cardigan and Bangor taking alternate weeks checking vehicle occupants for proof of address. Any one who refuses to pay will be attacked by a 20 foot tall effigy of Helen Mary Jones.

 

[Phil from Mon]

Any one who refuses to pay will be attacked by a 20 foot tall effigy of Helen Mary Jones.

That is the most frightening thing I have read on a forum, anywhere.
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Plaid Cymru also said that they would abolish the Severn Bridge tolls for the Welsh residents but not those from England. The English have got just as much right to use the Severn bridges on the same terms as people living in Wales. Indeed, it surely is in the best interest of Wales that people from England can cross into Wales toll free so as to encourage tourism & trade.

Not English people and Welsh people, but people travelling from England, and so far as I know when they return they will not pay. Likewise people from Wales will not pay to leave, but will pay to return home.

No need surely to try to make this an issue of race or nationality.

Stand open to correction on my first point, but not on the second.

 

[Envoy]

That is the most frightening thing I have read on a forum, anywhere.
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Not English people and Welsh people, but people travelling from England, and so far as I know when they return they will not pay. Likewise people from Wales will not pay to leave, but will pay to return home.

No need surely to try to make this an issue of race or nationality.

Stand open to correction on my first point, but not on the second.

PC said that they would allow residents of Wales to travel free across the Severn bridges but make everyone else pay. Just the thing to encourage inbound tourism!

 

[Phil from Mon]

PC said that they would allow residents of Wales to travel free across the Severn bridges but make everyone else pay. Just the thing to encourage inbound tourism!

Just checked and it looks as though the tolls are only in one direction (entering Wales), so the discouragement is there already. How one earth Plaid intend checking addresses on every vehicle entering is beyond me - in any case would it be the driver or the vehicle, and for commercial vehicles what about companies with establishments in both countries? Not a well-thought-through idea at all.

 

[edwin_m]

Just checked and it looks as though the tolls are only in one direction (entering Wales), so the discouragement is there already. How one earth Plaid intend checking addresses on every vehicle entering is beyond me - in any case would it be the driver or the vehicle, and for commercial vehicles what about companies with establishments in both countries? Not a well-thought-through idea at all.

However Welsh people visiting England still have to pay when they come back (unless they stay in England, which probably isn't the intention).

Presumably they could bring in an ANPR system that would exempt any private vehicle where the keeper's address was in Wales. That way dodges like buying a second-hand car first registered in Wales wouldn't work, although second home owners (not Plaid's favourite people!) could probably think up some sort of fiddle. They only say residents so they would most likely still charge for commercial vehicles wherever based.

 

[Envoy]

Just checked and it looks as though the tolls are only in one direction (entering Wales), so the discouragement is there already. How one earth Plaid intend checking addresses on every vehicle entering is beyond me - in any case would it be the driver or the vehicle, and for commercial vehicles what about companies with establishments in both countries? Not a well-thought-through idea at all.

Yes, the toll is only payable westbound into Wales. They figured that most people who went one way would return so it would be almost pointless having have tolls each way. I wonder how much fuel is wasted with everyone having to stop?

It is a bone of contention in the Forest of Dean that due to the westbound toll, toll dodging traffic from the Gloucester & Cheltenham areas uses routes such as the A48, A40 & A4136 to get into Wales when they could be on the better/safer motorway route via the M5 to Almonsbury & then the M4 or M48. No doubt this has caused needless accidents.

Sorry to be off topic - so let us return to the Carmarthen > Aberystwyth & Bangor > Pwllheli matter. Follow the route of the old railways on Google Earth & you will see that some parts of the routes have seen development on the old track beds. Indeed, in Caernarfon new roads and the Welsh Highland Railway now occupy the former rail route. Buildings have been placed on the trackbed at Aberystwyth. So, if ever it were to come about that a line is once again built up the western side of Wales, some buildings would have to be demolished and new diversions from the original put in place at some localities.

Then we have the very slow Cambrian Coast Line that would form part of this new route. From Machynlleth to Pwllheli takes about 2 hours 20 minutes - making it what is probably the slowest medium distance railway in Britain. Something would surely have to be done to speed up the present sections if ever it would be viable to take a train journey from say Swansea to Bangor via a western route. Of course, even without the through journeys, it can be argued that places like Lampeter & Aberystwyth would benefit as would Caernarfon in being better connected.

 

[Mordac]

PC said that they would allow residents of Wales to travel free across the Severn bridges but make everyone else pay. Just the thing to encourage inbound tourism!

I think that might be in breach of EU regulations anyway.

 

[Blamethrower]

don't take the bridge?

 

[HarleyDavidson]

don't take the bridge?

No, you won't have anything to driver over!

 

[Greenback]

This thread concerns the reopening of a particular route which happens to be in Wales. I realise that there is a political aspect to this, but let's keep general manifesto points and other election stuff out of it from now on. Thanks.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This thread concerns the reopening of a particular route which happens to be in Wales. I realise that there is a political aspect to this, but let's keep general manifesto points and other election stuff out of it from now on. Thanks.

Well said.
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Why? Scotland manages to charge English students tuition fees.

I am lost here at Scotland entering into this thread matter. What has that to do with a possible reopening of the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth railway line.?

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Trawslink Cymru campaigners are meeting Leanne Wood the Plaid leader at Aberystwyth station next Thursdat 14th at 1545.

Chance to show your support or object!

 

[Envoy]

The Trawslink Cymru campaigners are meeting Leanne Wood the Plaid leader at Aberystwyth station next Thursdat 14th at 1545.

Chance to show your support or object!

What is Trawslink Cymru?

 

[Gareth Marston]

What is Trawslink Cymru?

The west wales campaign group that want the line reopened. Have website and Facebook page if you search.

 

[CapitalStar378]

The line is never going to be re-opened. Even if there were billions of pounds spare in the WG finances it's still hasn't got a business case. It would be cheaper to lay on free taxis for all the people who wanted to travel along the route.

 

[daodao]

The line is never going to be re-opened. Even if there were billions of pounds spare in the WG finances it's still hasn't got a business case. It would be cheaper to lay on free taxis for all the people who wanted to travel along the route.

Well put.

The same can be said for Beverley-York, Northallerton-Ripon, Penrith-Workington and Hawick-Carlisle. There are a still number of remote lines which somehow escaped Beeching's pruning and remain hopelessly uneconomic. Examples include the Conwy Valley, Looe and Kyle of Lochalsh branches. Re-opening similar routes would be daft, in contrast to the re-openings that have occurred serving major urban areas, e.g. in South-East Wales.

Rail transport has a role where loads are heavy - trunk inter-city routes, suburban lines serving major conurbations with a well-sited central station (e.g. Cardiff but not Cambridge), and bulk trainload freight. Otherwise, particularly in low population density rural areas, road transport is more economic.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well put.

The same can be said for Beverley-York, Northallerton-Ripon, Penrith-Workington and Hawick-Carlisle. There are a still number of remote lines which somehow escaped Beeching's pruning and remain hopelessly uneconomic. Examples include the Conwy Valley, Looe and Kyle of Lochalsh branches. Re-opening similar routes would be daft, in contrast to the re-openings that have occurred serving major urban areas, e.g. in South-East Wales.

Rail transport has a role where loads are heavy - trunk inter-city routes, suburban lines serving major conurbations with a well-sited central station (e.g. Cardiff but not Cambridge), and bulk trainload freight. Otherwise, particularly in low population density rural areas, road transport is more economic.

So how much do they cost if there a bottomless pit then? Pray tell us.
Is it more than say the combined profits of the TOC's/ROSCO's/ the big construction firms network rail contract out to? Or the other costs of fragmentation?
How about the extra that Daft have paid out for IEP compared to normal procurement? How do rural lines costs stack up against that?

 

[Envoy]

The west wales campaign group that want the line reopened. Have website and Facebook page if you search.

Many thanks Gareth.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well put.

The same can be said for Beverley-York, Northallerton-Ripon, Penrith-Workington and Hawick-Carlisle. There are a still number of remote lines which somehow escaped Beeching's pruning and remain hopelessly uneconomic. Examples include the Conwy Valley, Looe and Kyle of Lochalsh branches. Re-opening similar routes would be daft, in contrast to the re-openings that have occurred serving major urban areas, e.g. in South-East Wales.

Rail transport has a role where loads are heavy - trunk inter-city routes, suburban lines serving major conurbations with a well-sited central station (e.g. Cardiff but not Cambridge), and bulk trainload freight. Otherwise, particularly in low population density rural areas, road transport is more economic.

Yet again your 1960s thinking shines through. The economic benefits of railways are the wider socioeconomic benefits they provide: it's not about being directly profitable. We can't just offload everyone onto the car - unfortunately it doesn't work that way, and the government is finally starting to see that. Your way of thinking is as dead as the dodo, and frankly I think it's going to stay that way.

I do like your sly dig at east-west rail again though, even though you've been comprehensibly blown out of the water on that one, too: notably never answering when pressed on why it has a bad business case, and only going off your gut instinct whilst using no actual facts. The idea that it only serves Cambridge and that the other major places on the line are immaterial seems to pervade your thinking too: your lack of holistic thinking is particularly unhelpful.

(Note: I'm making no comment on the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth reopening here, which I think probably does have a poor case, but it should at least be refused for the right reasons rather than this absurd idea that trains can only transport people 100 miles minimum and that lorries and cars should clog up minor roads because the railway running that route wouldn't make a direct profit.)

 

[Greenback]

We need to stay on topic here. The question is about whether the cost of rebuilding the Carmarthen to Abersytwyth line can be justified, not about whether it will make a direct profit or not.

I have little doubt that if the line had managed to hang on, rather being dismantled and built over, it would not in danger of being closed today, even if it required relatively high subsidy to keep it going.

We aren't in that position, though. The cost of reinstating the line will be high, there is low levels of population and no really major centres of employment along the way.

I don't believe there is a business case for the reopening. Even so, there's little to be gained by comparing the line with others that weren't closed and pulled up.

 

[Bald Rick]

So how much do they cost if there a bottomless pit then? Pray tell us.
Is it more than say the combined profits of the TOC's/ROSCO's/ the big construction firms network rail contract out to? Or the other costs of fragmentation?
How about the extra that Daft have paid out for IEP compared to normal procurement? How do rural lines costs stack up against that?

That is a rather different argument. But in some cases you would be surprised. The cost of the Conwy Valley line is astronomical, for example, due to the repeat flooding. In straight socio-economic terms there is absolutely no case for its retention, compared to alternatives that could be provided. But that is a political decision.

Meanwhile the profits of the big construction companies NR contract out to are presumably similar, arguably less, than these same companies when BR contracted out work to them.

 

[krus_aragon]

The cost of the Conwy Valley line is astronomical, for example, due to the repeat flooding. In straight socio-economic terms there is absolutely no case for its retention, compared to alternatives that could be provided.

I broadly agree, but would note that there was a specific case for it's retention until the 1990s, namely for transporting fuel to/from Trawsfynydd Nuclear Power Station.

 

[HowardGWR]

I suspect that there could be a case for extending the Gwili Railway as a tourist investment, using Welsh Government funding. This investment would include simultaneous private and local authority investment in providing tourist accommodation and other facilities. A while back, when visiting Carmarthen, I looked at the possible walks from the Gwili, and noticed how badly these were maintained and signposted.

It seemed to me that the creation of that no-longer used concept 'private - public partnership' is the clue here. As far as the direct recreation of a proper rail north south connection is concerned, well, this seems over-ambitious. One thing might lead to another in future, but I think, start modest and develop gradually, seems a more sensible proposition.

 

[ivanhoe]

As an outsider(English) I can see a political argument for a North South railway , wholly within the Country of Wales. I can also see a political argument for a North South highway( trunk road) which would serve as many population centres as possible en route. What I cannot see is an economic argument for a railway extended from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen, nor indeed any political argument for such a line. I could see an argument for extending Bangor to Porthmadoc. I also believe Wales deserves some significant infrastructure development which could not be financed from WG finances alone.

 

[Bald Rick]

I broadly agree, but would note that there was a specific case for it's retention until the 1990s, namely for transporting fuel to/from Trawsfynydd Nuclear Power Station.

But that closed quarter of a century ago.

Had BR remained a few years longer, that line would have been up for closure, no doubts about it.

 

[Llanigraham]

That is a rather different argument. But in some cases you would be surprised. The cost of the Conwy Valley line is astronomical, for example, due to the repeat flooding. In straight socio-economic terms there is absolutely no case for its retention, compared to alternatives that could be provided. But that is a political decision.

Meanwhile the profits of the big construction companies NR contract out to are presumably similar, arguably less, than these same companies when BR contracted out work to them.

And who will supply that alternative?
As I understand it from locals there is no effective bus service, and not everyone has a car.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

As an outsider(English) I can see a political argument for a North South railway , wholly within the Country of Wales.

It's a damn stupid idea though.

It's a solution for a traffic flow that doesn't really exist and which will never exist in sufficient numbers to actually justify a direct North-South railway line.

125 miles from Bangor to Cardiff in a straight line. Snowdonia National Park hate anything mechanical that moves, so would need to be bypassed, and Brecon Beacons would need to be tunnelled. It's a £30bn project of HS2 proportions, not a £500m CP6/CP7 spruce up of an existing line.

 

[Bald Rick]

And who will supply that alternative?
As I understand it from locals there is no effective bus service, and not everyone has a car.

The Welsh Assembly could contract a bus service to operate on the same basis as they would contract a train service. Specify route, timings, equipment, frequency, etc. You could even call it a franchise, or dare I say a concession.

For a small fraction of the cash spent on the railway, the bus service could be 4 times as frequent, perhaps alternate services to serve major settlements only (therefore improving the journey time to well under an hour), run later into the night, operate on Sundays, perhaps extend further south to Dolgellau.

Properly contracted, with proper protections, this would be a far, far better use of Welsh taxpayers cash, ie much less of it to provide a vastly improved transport service.

There's not many places in the country where this sort of switch would make socio-economic sense (ie a significant net improvement to society) but this is probably the most clear cut.