Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[Bevan Price]

Originally Posted by ivanhoe View Post
As an outsider(English) I can see a political argument for a North South railway , wholly within the Country of Wales.

It's a damn stupid idea though.

It's a solution for a traffic flow that doesn't really exist and which will never exist in sufficient numbers to actually justify a direct North-South railway line.

125 miles from Bangor to Cardiff in a straight line. Snowdonia National Park hate anything mechanical that moves, so would need to be bypassed, and Brecon Beacons would need to be tunnelled. It's a £30bn project of HS2 proportions, not a £500m CP6/CP7 spruce up of an existing line.

Yes, it is just an "ego trip" idea by people wanting to spend other peoples' money. As I have commented before, I made a few journeys on the Aberystwyth - Carmarthen line before it closed. On most journeys, I had a coach to myself, and I doubt that more than 10-20 passengers used any of the trains. There are other closed lines in Wales that might be considered much more viable for reopening.

 

[Llanigraham]

The Welsh Assembly could contract a bus service to operate on the same basis as they would contract a train service. Specify route, timings, equipment, frequency, etc. You could even call it a franchise, or dare I say a concession.

For a small fraction of the cash spent on the railway, the bus service could be 4 times as frequent, perhaps alternate services to serve major settlements only (therefore improving the journey time to well under an hour), run later into the night, operate on Sundays, perhaps extend further south to Dolgellau.

Properly contracted, with proper protections, this would be a far, far better use of Welsh taxpayers cash, ie much less of it to provide a vastly improved transport service.

There's not many places in the country where this sort of switch would make socio-economic sense (ie a significant net improvement to society) but this is probably the most clear cut.

Your obvious lack of local knowledge or geography shows!
There was a subsidised bus service, it failed!
What "major settlements"?

Back on topic.
I have still seen NO economic reason to reopen the Aber - Carmarthen line from the Pro side, simply because there isn't one!

 

[Bald Rick]

Your obvious lack of local knowledge or geography shows!
There was a subsidised bus service, it failed!

I know, and it was evidently not subsidised enough, and not subject to suitable contractual arrangements / protections to require its provision.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

What "major settlements"?

Fair point, I should have said relatively major. Glan Conwy, Llanrwst, Betws.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I have still seen NO economic reason to reopen the Aber - Carmarthen line from the Pro side, simply because there isn't one!

There's not a social case, let alone an economic one.

 

[6Gman]

And who will supply that alternative?
As I understand it from locals there is no effective bus service, and not everyone has a car.

I assume this refers to the Conwy Valley line?

Not sure what's meant by "no effective bus service". My understanding is that the bus service is more frequent than the rail service and no slower.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Your obvious lack of local knowledge or geography shows!
There was a subsidised bus service, it failed!
What "major settlements"?

Back on topic.
I have still seen NO economic reason to reopen the Aber - Carmarthen line from the Pro side, simply because there isn't one!

Which service do you mean by this? The 19?

 

[Bald Rick]

I assume this refers to the Conwy Valley line?

Not sure what's meant by "no effective bus service". My understanding is that the bus service is more frequent than the rail service and no slower.

Indeed, from next month the X1 is roughly hourly from around 0800 to 1900 from Llandudno to Betws, with a few extras throughout the day and a longer gap late afternoon. 5 of these are extended to/from Blaenau F, and one to/from Dolgellau.

I don't know if this is subsidised or not - I suspect not.

 

[Envoy]

I have just been checking out the bus services linking up SW with NW Wales. Carmarthen to Aberystwyth takes 2 hours 16 minutes. It goes via Lampeter - (as the old rail route did but on a more bendy route to get through the hills to Pencader). So, on this section, it is highly unlikely that a train would be faster than a bus. Then, the bus heads west to take in the west coast town of Aberaeron before heading up the coast to Aberystwyth. Although Aberaeron once had a rail service via a branch line from Lampeter, no service linked it to Aberystwyth. Any rebuilding of a rail line would also have to follow much of the route of the original line that went via the village of Tregaron. You can't build a rail link between Aberaeron & Aberystwyth - well not without massive cost - due to the topography. So, in taking in the more sizeable community of Aberaeron, the bus wins again.

If a rail line were to be built between the Cambrian line and Caernarfon & Bangor you would find that it would probably have to follow much of the original route from Afon Wen. That would create a problem with Pwllheli being left out. You will also find that a good road takes a shorter route between Porthmadog (which now has a by-pass), and Caernarfon.

Caernarfon presents the greatest problem to getting a rail link between the Cambrian line and Bangor. Most of the old rail route through the town has nor been turned into a road. The Welsh Highland Railway occupies much of the former route on the south side. To build a new line east of Caernarfon would be difficult and mean that the station would be nowhere near the town centre.

So, as things stand, Porthmadog to Bangor (via Caernarfon) by bus takes 1 hour 12 minutes. No new rail route is likely to better this. A complete Carmarthen to Bangor bus journey (with one change at Aberystwyth) takes 6 hours. The road between Aberystwyth and Dolgellau is very slow going as it twist and turns through difficult terrain. From Dolgellau > Porthmadog > Caernarfon > Bangor is relatively fast going.

You can check the buses here:>http://www.traveline.cymru

Well, that has saved a load of money on consultants fees!

 

[Greenback]

I have just been checking out the bus services linking up SW with NW Wales. Carmarthen to Aberystwyth takes 2 hours 16 minutes. It goes via Lampeter - (as the old rail route did but on a more bendy route to get through the hills to Pencader). So, on this section, it is highly unlikely that a train would be faster than a bus. Then, the bus heads west to take in the west coast town of Aberaeron before heading up the coast to Aberystwyth. Although Aberaeron once had a rail service via a branch line from Lampeter, no service linked it to Aberystwyth. Any rebuilding of a rail line would also have to follow much of the route of the original line that went via the village of Tregaron. You can't build a rail link between Aberaeron & Aberystwyth - well not without massive cost - due to the topography. So, in taking in the more sizeable community of Aberaeron, the bus wins again.

An excellent illustration of why the reopening of this line won't happen. The bus service is pretty good overall, and has never been full when I've used it, despite calling at many more and far more convenient places than the train could.

There simply isn't enough business out there to make this a worthwhile use of public money.

Caernarfon presents the greatest problem to getting a rail link between the Cambrian line and Bangor. Most of the old rail route through the town has nor been turned into a road. The Welsh Highland Railway occupies much of the former route on the south side. To build a new line east of Caernarfon would be difficult and mean that the station would be nowhere near the town centre.

That's a pity, as I'd venture to suggest that the potential of Caernarfon to Bangor is probably the strongest that there is on the north south west Wales axis.

So, as things stand, Porthmadog to Bangor (via Caernarfon) by bus takes 1 hour 12 minutes. No new rail route is likely to better this. A complete Carmarthen to Bangor bus journey (with one change at Aberystwyth) takes 6 hours. The road between Aberystwyth and Dolgellau is very slow going as it twist and turns through difficult terrain. From Dolgellau > Porthmadog > Caernarfon > Bangor is relatively fast going.

You can check the buses here:>http://www.traveline.cymru

Well, that has saved a load of money on consultants fees!

There's just no hope for a Carmarthen to Aberystwyth or Afon Wen to Caernarfon reinstatement.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There simply isn't enough business out there to make this a worthwhile use of public money.

Here's a general question... I don't know the area personally, so I'm going entirely on what I've read. With that proviso... so far as I can tell, the Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury line is reasonably popular, and has recently gone from two-hourly to slightly-less-than-hourly. Looking at the map, Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury seems to be about the same distance as Aberystwyth-Swansea, and goes mainly through equally rural, sparsely populated, terrain. Swansea is also a lot bigger than Shrewsbury.

Now I get that a line that's already open is very different from spending millions on building a line that doesn't yet exist, and there are certainly many other locations in the UK where opening a new line would produce many more new passengers than Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, and should therefore be seen as much higher priority / better value for money.

But what puzzles me is why so many people on this thread appear to believe that if Carmarthen-Aberystwyth did reopen (presumably with through trains to Swansea and Cardiff), it wouldn't attract many passengers, when that's clearly not the case for Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury, in fairly similar circumstances. Can someone explain what's different between the two lines that means one apparently attracts considerable custom and justifies a near-hourly frequency, and the other, despite apparently serving similar population levels, supposedly, wouldn't?

 

[Greenback]

But what puzzles me is why so many people on this thread appear to believe that if Carmarthen-Aberystwyth did reopen (presumably with through trains to Swansea and Cardiff), it wouldn't attract many passengers, when that's clearly not the case for Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury, in fairly similar circumstances. Can someone explain what's different between the two lines that means one apparently attracts considerable custom and justifies a near-hourly frequency, and the other, despite apparently serving similar population levels, supposedly, wouldn't?

I'll have a bash at answering that.

It all comes down to geography, population, and convenience to me. As has been mentioned previously, the route of the line missed out some sizeable (by the standards of the area at least) centres, such as Newcastle Emlyn and Aberaeron. The station at Lampeter, probably easily the most important station en route, was outside the town, while the bus stops at several points, including right in the town centre.

I wouldn't be surprised to discover that the total population of the towns that the Cambrian Main Line passes through are far in excess of that of places like Tregaron, and the other potential stops on what was always a twisting and slow line. I'd also suggest that Shrewsbury is larger than Carmarthen and of more importance, both as a destination in its own right and as a connection point for other places.

There will be no measurable commuter flow to either Swansea or Cardiff. The distance is too great and the potential journey time too long to make rail anywhere near competitive with road. There isn't a huge market now for commuting between Carmarthen and Swansea by rail, never mind Cardiff.

The fact of the matter is that the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth lines meanders it's way through an area of low population density. It was constructed during a time when roads were far poorer than they are now, and the main method of transportation was either the horse or a boat. It was vital then for rural communities to be connected to the rail network as a means of getting their produce out and essential goods in via a method that was cheaper and more flexible than the alternatives. The same holds true today, but the railway has lost out to the roads, so there is no likelihood of any freight traffic ever returning.

That leaves passengers, and there simply aren't enough who would be persuaded out of their vehicles (mostly cars which are largely seen as essential in this and similar areas). The buses don't carry many people now, and while a rail service would probably see more people even if it's just novelty value, I can never see a 153 being packed to capacity on this route.

 

[Bald Rick]

Looking at the map, Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury seems to be about the same distance as Aberystwyth-Swansea, and goes mainly through equally rural, sparsely populated, terrain.

I think that's a mistake. Look at the map and you will see that between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth there a decent sized towns: Welshpool, Newtown, Macc. Also that line is the link to the Cardigan bay coast north of Aberdovey, eg Barmouth, Tywyn, Harlech, Porthmadog etc. All decent sized towns, many with decent tourist levels. The line is the only rail link to the rest of the rest of the country, so it will see decent custom for those who choose not to drive.

Between Aberystwth and Carmarthen there is only Lampeter.

 

[Greenback]

Between Aberystwth and Carmarthen there is only Lampeter.

And that is far from being a buzzing metropolis, despite the students. In my experience it's smaller and quieter than Aberystwyth.

 

[ivanhoe]

It's a damn stupid idea though.

It's a solution for a traffic flow that doesn't really exist and which will never exist in sufficient numbers to actually justify a direct North-South railway line.

125 miles from Bangor to Cardiff in a straight line. Snowdonia National Park hate anything mechanical that moves, so would need to be bypassed, and Brecon Beacons would need to be tunnelled. It's a £30bn project of HS2 proportions, not a £500m CP6/CP7 spruce up of an existing line.

This is what happens when you truncate the original post to suit your own perceived comment. It was not an economic case that I was advocating and I was attempting to see it from a Welsh perspective when who knows in 50 years time, it maybe an Indepedent nation. It's current infrastructure makes it totally dependent on England, particularly in North and Central Wales. Nobody would build a line from Bangor to Cardiff in a straight line and if any was to be built, it would be nearer to the current border, although Shropshire and Hereford is a bit of a problem. Hell, I'm stupid though!

 

[Greenback]

No one can predict the future, but what might or might not be the situation in 50 years is a little outside the scope of this discussion anyway. The proposals are in the here and now, and at the moment there's no business case that I can see for this reopening. None at all.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No one can predict the future, but what might or might not be the situation in 50 years is a little outside the scope of this discussion anyway. The proposals are in the here and now, and at the moment there's no business case that I can see for this reopening. None at all.

Let us not forget the hopes and aspirations that once lay behind the dream of the Manchester and Milford Railway all those years ago.

 

[Greenback]

I always think about that company whenever I am on a Milford Haven to Manchester through train (or vice versa, naturally).

Perhaps the fact that it was such a struggle to build that particular dream reflects the realities of running railways through Mid Wales.

 

[HSTEd]

Even some sort of hybrid tramway thing would end up very expensive, although less so than a 'proper' railway.

 

[Bald Rick]

Even some sort of hybrid tramway thing would end up very expensive, although less so than a 'proper' railway.

Thought you would have floated a Wales Coast (WC) Shinkansen by now.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Perhaps the best hope for (at least the Northern half) a North to South link in Wales lies in extending the WHR to Bangor... Narrow gauge uses less land, can cope with tighter corners, and is arguably more of a tourist draw- something that rural railways need to embrace regardless of size. A more convenient interchange at Porthmadog with NR (or at Minffordd if paths on the cross-town link are available without causing huge jams) and through-ticketing would create a useable, if slow, link as far as Mach. At Aberystwyth, to continue this flight of fancy, extending the Vale of Rheidol (which after all was part of British Rail, lest we forget!) to the South East to Llandrindod or Builth would then connect with the Heart of Wales line to head Southwest... Simples!

Of course if a link was ever provided from North to South, the Dovey estuary would be a problem. A curve linking the Pwllheli and Aberystwyth lines would be ridiculously expensive and would be flooded regularly (I don't believe such a curve ever existed, did it?) so a reversal at Mach would be required instead. That's before getting into the difficulties of whether many people would use the train to get from Harlech to Borth for example.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Here's a general question... I don't know the area personally, so I'm going entirely on what I've read. With that proviso... so far as I can tell, the Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury line is reasonably popular, and has recently gone from two-hourly to slightly-less-than-hourly. Looking at the map, Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury seems to be about the same distance as Aberystwyth-Swansea, and goes mainly through equally rural, sparsely populated, terrain. Swansea is also a lot bigger than Shrewsbury.

Now I get that a line that's already open is very different from spending millions on building a line that doesn't yet exist, and there are certainly many other locations in the UK where opening a new line would produce many more new passengers than Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, and should therefore be seen as much higher priority / better value for money.

But what puzzles me is why so many people on this thread appear to believe that if Carmarthen-Aberystwyth did reopen (presumably with through trains to Swansea and Cardiff), it wouldn't attract many passengers, when that's clearly not the case for Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury, in fairly similar circumstances. Can someone explain what's different between the two lines that means one apparently attracts considerable custom and justifies a near-hourly frequency, and the other, despite apparently serving similar population levels, supposedly, wouldn't?

Cambrian mainline is now one million plus per annum footfall. Two thirds of which is cross border with Half of that going on to West Midlands and London & SE. Travel to other parts of Wales is a tiny percentage as it's the long way round via Shrewsbury and uncompetitive with road. So it's hard to gauge any rail market. The bus usage figures for the Carm to Aberystwyth are 110K per annum the Merthyr to Newtown bus up through Powys is doing 140K albeit mostly between Merthyr and Brecon.

Ceredigion has a high percentage of public sector jobs with a general hospital, 2 universities and A WG office in Aberystwyth. So meetings culture and travel does dominate thinking somewhat.

The amount of traffic it would abstract from Aberend of Cambrian would be quite small as apart from South Wales journey times would be no quicker. The Cambrian mainline is the natural direction of travel to London and West Midlands from Mid Wales. The population it runs through on the way to England is also higher than in the wilds of Ceredigion. Borth is larger than Tregaron, Welshpool larger than Lampeter then there's Caersws which is bigger than Tregaron pLus Machynlleth and 12K in Newtown. The coast to England traffic comes this way too.

 

[HSTEd]

Thought you would have floated a Wales Coast (WC) Shinkansen by now.

I don't always suggest Shinkansen.
Sometimes I suggest metros.

Also even I am not going to propose a shinkansen linking two small towns through what amounts to wilderness.

Carmarthen would probably be on the South Wales Shinkansen however, on its route to Milford Haven and the Sea.

 

[Greenback]

The amount of traffic it would abstract from Aberend of Cambrian would be quite small as apart from South Wales journey times would be no quicker. The Cambrian mainline is the natural direction of travel to London and West Midlands from Mid Wales. The population it runs through on the way to England is also higher than in the wilds of Ceredigion. Borth is larger than Tregaron, Welshpool larger than Lampeter then there's Caersws which is bigger than Tregaron pLus Machynlleth and 12K in Newtown. The coast to England traffic comes this way too.

All true, and you've shown why not only would little traffic be lured away from the Cambrian, but also why I don't think that there's a great deal of new business to be generated from reinstating the line.

The reopened line wouldn't be much good for Aberystwyth - Cardiff journeys, which leaves the flows to and from Aberystwyth itself, Carmarthen, and Swansea, none of which would amount to very much in my view.

Maybe there will be some commuting from Lampeter and Tregaron into Aberystwyth, but my view is that unless the workplace is convenient for the railway station, people are likely to stick with their cars. As I said earlier, I should think that there are high levels of car ownership considering the nature of the area.

There'll also be the odd traveller between Cardiff and stations east of there to Lampeter and any other other stations that would be constructed, but again, I believe that would be pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think that's a mistake. Look at the map and you will see that between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth there a decent sized towns: Welshpool, Newtown, Macc. Also that line is the link to the Cardigan bay coast north of Aberdovey, eg Barmouth, Tywyn, Harlech, Porthmadog etc. All decent sized towns, many with decent tourist levels. The line is the only rail link to the rest of the rest of the country, so it will see decent custom for those who choose not to drive.

Between Aberystwth and Carmarthen there is only Lampeter.

Ah, thanks. If that's the case, I guess that would be where the flaw in my analysis was

 

[Greenback]

The other places on the route are little more than a small selection of houses clustered around the centre of the village, with some scattered and outlying houses and farms to add in to the mix.

Cynwyl Elfed is a good example. I can't imagine any local resident preferring the train over the bus to get to Carmarthen. The bus stops will be more convenient, both in the village and in Carmarthen itself. The old station which was called Conwil was some way form the village.

 

[krus_aragon]

But that closed quarter of a century ago.

Had BR remained a few years longer, that line would have been up for closure, no doubts about it.

I offer no (significant) argument, I just wanted to remind people that the Conwy Valley line hasn't been completely unviable since Beeching's time: it's a more recent development.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Just a random comment really...

There's a sense of rail OR road transport in bits of this thread, which is a really sad but an accurate reflection of our public transport system. They should but only infrequently do complement each other.

It's really such a shame that when people arrive by train, there's not a good quality coach waiting to take them onto their ultimate destination, with proper integrated ticketing, good waiting facilities for when things go wrong and a good connection to other bus services in the area, regardless of who operates them.

 

[Gareth Marston]

All true, and you've shown why not only would little traffic be lured away from the Cambrian, but also why I don't think that there's a great deal of new business to be generated from reinstating the line.

The reopened line wouldn't be much good for Aberystwyth - Cardiff journeys, which leaves the flows to and from Aberystwyth itself, Carmarthen, and Swansea, none of which would amount to very much in my view.

Maybe there will be some commuting from Lampeter and Tregaron into Aberystwyth, but my view is that unless the workplace is convenient for the railway station, people are likely to stick with their cars. As I said earlier, I should think that there are high levels of car ownership considering the nature of the area.

There'll also be the odd traveller between Cardiff and stations east of there to Lampeter and any other other stations that would be constructed, but again, I believe that would be pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things.

What those outside rural Wales need to realise is there's an overwhelming sense amongst many that have been neglected for decades in favour of attempts to regenerate the old heavy industry areas of S Wales throughout the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. Followed by a National Assembly from 99 that has favoured Labour voting areas. They feel it's their turn to have a slice of the pie. This feeds into Plaids views. Business cases and looking at the population of somewhere are largely superfluous to this sense of injustice.

The politics this year will have a big say. How many seats will UKIP get and will it ensure Labor are in a minority? If so a coalition with Plaid will see at least a fully costed study at reopening the line.

Caernarfon is a sensible reopening and the lower half of the Llyn peninsular has close on a 30K population whose natural direction of travel is northward.
The most sensible reopening in Wales is actually a cross border line. Dee Marsh Junction to Chester. Deeside zindustrial Estate employs thou sounds and Blacon has 20k living there.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Just a random comment really...

There's a sense of rail OR road transport in bits of this thread, which is a really sad but an accurate reflection of our public transport system. They should but only infrequently do complement each other.

It's really such a shame that when people arrive by train, there's not a good quality coach waiting to take them onto their ultimate destination, with proper integrated ticketing, good waiting facilities for when things go wrong and a good connection to other bus services in the area, regardless of who operates them.

Can you tell Powys C C that!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Perhaps the best hope for (at least the Northern half) a North to South link in Wales lies in extending the WHR to Bangor.

Please can we keep this thread to the matter of the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth line that is shown in the title of this thread.

I do not doubt for an instant there is discussion to be had on areas north of Aberystwyth, but surely they should form part of a new thread, suitably named, to allow discussion on that matter.

 

[Bevan Price]

Populations in Wales:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_localities_in_Wales_by_population.htm

Lampeter is way down the list in terms of population size (Position 158, population 2970) Even with an extra student population, it is nowhere near large enough to sustain a viable railway service. There are many larger towns with a better claim to seek restored rail services.

If the Machynlleth - Pwllheli line did not still exist, it, too, would find it hard to justify the cost of reinstating a railway.

Taken together, Pwllheli (Population 4076). Porthmadog (2981), Barmouth (2315), Machynlleth (2235), Criccieth (1753), Penrhyndeudraeth (1546), Harlech (1447) would not be large enough to justify the cost of rebuilding a lengthy railway.

Bangor to Carenarfon (population 9493) might have been a bit easier to justify - especially as it is a tourist centre -- if only they had not destroyed much of the infrastructure.

 

[edwin_m]

Just a random comment really...

There's a sense of rail OR road transport in bits of this thread, which is a really sad but an accurate reflection of our public transport system. They should but only infrequently do complement each other.

It's really such a shame that when people arrive by train, there's not a good quality coach waiting to take them onto their ultimate destination, with proper integrated ticketing, good waiting facilities for when things go wrong and a good connection to other bus services in the area, regardless of who operates them.

Yes indeed. This would allow rail to act as the "spine" of transport networks in both urban and rural areas where the passenger numbers justified a railway. I don't know what that would do to the viability of Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, but I think quite a few Beeching era cuts would have been avoided if that sort of integration had been adopted instead.

Come to think of it, was I dreaming or do I recall seeing a few years ago a TrawsCymru bus meeting the train at Carmarthen, bound for... Aberystwyth?

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Please can we keep this thread to the matter of the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth line that is shown in the title of this thread.

I do not doubt for an instant there is discussion to be had on areas north of Aberystwyth, but surely they should form part of a new thread, suitably named, to allow discussion on that matter.

Quite right, and it was not my intention to divert this topic too far from it's main focus. I do hope that the tongue-in-cheek nature of parts of my post (in particular to extend the Vale of Rheidol southwards!) wasn't lost in translation!