Should We Leave the EU?

[miami]

I think it's a shame that you have such a poor opinion of Bulgarians to think that they would still come to work, regardless of whether it's legal or not.

I'm not the one claiming they're working illegally now, that was Railops

The Metropolitan Elite will virtually all vote for Remain as they're now used to having 3 quid an hour Bulgarian nannies, gardeners and cleaners on tap.

 

[Howardh]

£3/hr sounds fantastic to me. As a carer, full time apart from the occasional break like last Saturday, I'm on duty and on guard 24 hours a day... that's £0.37/hr - I gett the princely sum of £62.10/week carer's allowance, and I'm saving the HNS thousands every week.

So, on Brexit, with all this freed-up money, will my, and other carer's allowance go up to something more like a reasonable £250/week??

Will

It

Eff.

Does any Brexiter know, exactly, how much my allowance WILL go up on Leave, so I can look forward to maybe a new camera or something? Though not

 

[Gutfright]

Any "leaver" want to start the day by explaining what they want to see after a vote to leave the EU? Do you favour the Norwegian model, remaining part of the single market? Or the Canadian model, where all relationships have to be separately negotiated?

After the people of Britain chose to Brexit, the UK's top negotiator the Rt Hon Lord Sir Earl Smithers-Jones goes to an anonymous conference room in Limoges to negotiate the UK's trade relationship with the European Union. Already in the room are Frau Farbissina, Monsieur Aubergine, Signore Signore and Panicz Kurwamasz, who will all be negotiating for the EU.

Frau Farbissina: Come in Smithers old boy. Take a seat, take ze weight off your feet
Smithers-Jones: Thank you. Good morning everybody!
Monsieur Aubergine: Peess off Rosbif!
Panicz Kurwamasz: Heil Hitler!
Signor Signore: Can anyone lend me some money?
Frau Farbissina: You'll get your money later Signor. Now ve are talking about ze Britain.
Panicz Kurwamasz: There are a few too many blacks in London for my liking.
Frau Farbissina: SILENCE!!! Now let our British guest speak...
Smithers-Jones: Thank you. Now Britain wants to continue our trade relationship with Europe more or less as it has been. We like buying your shiz, and I'm sure you like having our money flow into your coffers...
Signor Signore: Did somebody say money? I need money. I sleep now.
Smithers-Jones: ...but unfortunately we need to control our borders, so we will have to insist that this trade deal does not include the free movement of people.
Frau Farbissina: ZAT IS UNACCEPTABLE!
Monsieur Aubergine: I effing hate you uncultured Eeeenglish. No deal. Never. Non.
Panicz Kurwamasz: Britain is closing her borders? I, er, I have to go [grabs his passport and hurriedly leaves the room] Taxi to Limoges airport please.
Signor Signore: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Suddenly Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik, a representative of the German car industry, enters the room and whispers something in the ear of Frau Farbissina.

Frau Farbissina: I have just been informed zat ze British are buying a metric f*cktonne of German cars every year. It seems I have little choice but to accept a trade deal with you Englischer pigdogs.
Smithers-Jones: With no open borders...?
Frau Farbissina: [Looks pleadingly at Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik, who shakes his head] Sigh. With no open borders.
Monsieur Aubergine: But I detest zees Eeeeeeeenglish people...
Frau Farbissina: SILENCE! DISSENT VILL NOT BE TOLERATED! Smithers-Jones ve vill draw up an agreement. Ve vill trade openly with one another, you vill control your borders BUT you vill also pay a small cash fee to access ze single market. Is zat acceptable to you Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik?
Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik: Ja. Das ist gut
Frau Farbissina: And you, Englischer?
Smithers-Jones: Works for me. We'll name this agreement after the city we're in. Where are we anyway?
Frau Farbissina: Nantes, I think.
Monsieur Aubergine: Non, we are een Toulon
[Debate continues for seventy hours over which city the conference is in. Eventually the Limoges agreement is signed, giving the UK access to the single market and control over it's borders. Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik is satisfied with the outcome]

 

[northwichcat]

I imagine if Brexit does result in more money and resources for the NHS, it will mean more foreign health workers coming over here to work. We won't be able to recruit more British Doctors to work in hospitals when so many of the Junior Doctors were so annoyed with Mr Hunt that they went to work abroad and it taking years to train new ones. So my prediction is if Leave win and try to fulfill their promises they'll be begging qualified foreigners to come over here at the same time as creating more red tape for foreigners wanting to come over here to work. :roll:

 

[AM9]

After the people of Britain chose to Brexit, the UK's top negotiator the Rt Hon Lord Sir Earl Smithers-Jones goes to an anonymous conference room in Limoges to negotiate the UK's trade relationship with the European Union. Already in the room are Frau Farbissina, Monsieur Aubergine, Signore Signore and Panicz Kurwamasz, who will all be negotiating for the EU.

Frau Farbissina: Come in Smithers old boy. Take a seat, take ze weight off your feet
Smithers-Jones: Thank you. Good morning everybody!
Monsieur Aubergine: Peess off Rosbif!
Panicz Kurwamasz: Heil Hitler!
Signor Signore: Can anyone lend me some money?
Frau Farbissina: You'll get your money later Signor. Now ve are talking about ze Britain.
Panicz Kurwamasz: There are a few too many blacks in London for my liking.
Frau Farbissina: SILENCE!!! Now let our British guest speak...
Smithers-Jones: Thank you. Now Britain wants to continue our trade relationship with Europe more or less as it has been. We like buying your shiz, and I'm sure you like having our money flow into your coffers...
Signor Signore: Did somebody say money? I need money. I sleep now.
Smithers-Jones: ...but unfortunately we need to control our borders, so we will have to insist that this trade deal does not include the free movement of people.
Frau Farbissina: ZAT IS UNACCEPTABLE!
Monsieur Aubergine: I effing hate you uncultured Eeeenglish. No deal. Never. Non.
Panicz Kurwamasz: Britain is closing her borders? I, er, I have to go [grabs his passport and hurriedly leaves the room] Taxi to Limoges airport please.
Signor Signore: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Suddenly Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik, a representative of the German car industry, enters the room and whispers something in the ear of Frau Farbissina.

Frau Farbissina: I have just been informed zat ze British are buying a metric f*cktonne of German cars every year. It seems I have little choice but to accept a trade deal with you Englischer pigdogs.
Smithers-Jones: With no open borders...?
Frau Farbissina: [Looks pleadingly at Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik, who shakes his head] Sigh. With no open borders.
Monsieur Aubergine: But I detest zees Eeeeeeeenglish people...
Frau Farbissina: SILENCE! DISSENT VILL NOT BE TOLERATED! Smithers-Jones ve vill draw up an agreement. Ve vill trade openly with one another, you vill control your borders BUT you vill also pay a small cash fee to access ze single market. Is zat acceptable to you Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik?
Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik: Ja. Das ist gut
Frau Farbissina: And you, Englischer?
Smithers-Jones: Works for me. We'll name this agreement after the city we're in. Where are we anyway?
Frau Farbissina: Nantes, I think.
Monsieur Aubergine: Non, we are een Toulon
[Debate continues for seventy hours over which city the conference is in. Eventually the Limoges agreement is signed, giving the UK access to the single market and control over it's borders. Herr Vorsprungdurchtechnik is satisfied with the outcome]

What a lot of xenophobic stereotyping. Farrage would be proud of you.

 

[Howardh]

I imagine if Brexit does result in more money and resources for the NHS, it will mean more foreign health workers coming over here to work. We won't be able to recruit more British Doctors to work in hospitals when so many of the Junior Doctors were so annoyed with Mr Hunt that they went to work abroad and it taking years to train new ones. So my prediction is if Leave win and try to fulfill their promises they'll be begging qualified foreigners to come over here at the same time as creating more red tape for foreigners wanting to come over here to work. :roll:

And the teaching profession which has, mainly through government interference over the last 20+ years, lost countless staff to overseas. That's OUR government's bureaucracy, not the EU's.

 

[northwichcat]

Perhaps I may have misheard a comment made by someone from the "Leave" sector, but that comment that the quoted figure of the "saved £350 million" that all that side of the debate started off by stating "would be spent on the NHS" has suddenly become "may be spent on the NHS".

There is a very wide gulf between the implications of those two statements.

According to BBC Deputy Political Editor John Pienaar they have made a change and it's because Vote Leave aren't a political party fighting an election so have no right to make claims like more money will go in to the NHS.

 

[miami]

Magic. So we have no "open borders" with europe. Prices increase, and everyone is happy. The sterotypical council of an organisation of 440 million people and second largest GDP in the world will of course kow-tow to our demands due to our enourmous importance (GDP of 20% that of the rest of the EU). And our economy will still be strong enough to buy those german cars of course, and the fact we'll have free trade with america and china won't affect that market. All wonderful.

Except we still have 188,000 people a year arriving from outside of Europe. Add to that all the "skilled workers" from europe that we'll having coming in. We'll also have a black market of visa-overstayers from europe who came here for tourism.

So how are we going to get to that magic 100,000 figure?

 

[northwichcat]

And the teaching profession which has, mainly through government interference over the last 20+ years, lost countless staff to overseas. That's OUR government's bureaucracy, not the EU's.

I've lost count of the number of times I've heard a teacher say if Gove is a leading figure in the leave campaign then they'll vote remain.

 

[Howardh]

Magic. So we have no "open borders" with europe. Prices increase, and everyone is happy. The sterotypical council of an organisation of 440 million people and second largest GDP in the world will of course kow-tow to our demands due to our enourmous importance (GDP of 20% that of the rest of the EU). And our economy will still be strong enough to buy those german cars of course, and the fact we'll have free trade with america and china won't affect that market. All wonderful.

Except we still have 188,000 people a year arriving from outside of Europe. Add to that all the "skilled workers" from europe that we'll having coming in. We'll also have a black market of visa-overstayers from europe who came here for tourism.

So how are we going to get to that magic 100,000 figure?

All the people that overstay or come in the Irish route won't be counted. It's all a fix! There's no way Brexit will ever admit that immigration and our overall population is still going on, and at an upward rate too!

I'd like to know at what point would they accept Brexit is a "fail"? But by then, going back home to the EU would be so expensive....and that's not just the price of humble pie.

OK, fair enough....what would Brexit call a "success" - a pint in which remainers like me could hold our hands up and say "OK squire, you were right and we were wrong"?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A question for those Brexiters who want the UK to leave because of the thing about taking back control and having (supposedly) full independence:

When we come to have to negotiate with other countries on such matters as trade, pollution and climate change, defence, dealing with international crime, etc. etc., how much clout do you think the UK on its own (population 64 million) will have when negotiating with:

China (population 1400 million)
USA (population 320 million)
Brazil (population 200 million)
Russia (population 150 million)
Japan (population 120 million)
Rest of the EU (population without the UK 450 million)

etc.?

 

[Gutfright]

The sterotypical council of an organisation of 440 million people and second largest GDP in the world will of course kow-tow to our demands due to our enourmous importance (GDP of 20% that of the rest of the EU).

We spend billions of pounds on European goods and services. That gives us a leverage over the EU that smaller countries like Switzerland and Norway simply don't have.

Remember also that the EU is going to need all the money it can get it's hands on. Italy has it's banking crisis going on, and Germany's decision to spend over 93 billion Euros on refugees and migrants by 2020 will affect the amount of money it has to bail them out.

They desperately need our monies, so we would be negotiating from a position of strength.

A question for those Brexiters who want the UK to leave because of the thing about taking back control and having (supposedly) full independence:

When we come to have to negotiate with other countries on such matters as trade, pollution and climate change, defence, dealing with international crime, etc. etc., how much clout do you think the UK on its own (population 64 million) will have when negotiating with:

China (population 1400 million)
USA (population 320 million)
Brazil (population 200 million)
Russia (population 150 million)
Japan (population 120 million)
Rest of the EU (population without the UK 450 million)

etc.?

It is possible to negotiate trade deals, climate treaties, defence pacts etc with countries like China, USA, Brazil etc without giving them control over our laws and our borders.

As for our amount of "clout" on the international stage, the truth is that it probably will remain about the same as it is now.

 

[anme]

We spend billions of pounds on European goods and services. That gives us a leverage over the EU that smaller countries like Switzerland and Norway simply don't have.

Remember also that the EU is going to need all the money it can get it's hands on. Italy has it's banking crisis going on, and Germany's decision to spend over 93 billion Euros on refugees and migrants by 2020 will affect the amount of money it has to bail them out.

They desperately need our monies, so we would be negotiating from a position of strength.

Nonsense. 40% of UK exports go to the EU. No EU country sends more than 7% of its exports to the UK. (Neither number will be reduced to zero in any case). The UK is absolutely not in a position of strength.

This counts as an answer to the person who wrote that Allo Allo style "comedy" script too.

 

[EM2]

We spend billions of pounds on European goods and services. That gives us a leverage over the EU that smaller countries like Switzerland and Norway simply don't have.

We want a lot of their stuff. They don't want as much of our stuff. If they don't sell their stuff to us, they'll sell it to someone else.
While you have emerging markets like China and India, there will be plenty of sales opportunities for BMW, Bang & Olufsen, Armani et al.
Take China as an example. What do they want that we make or sell?

 

[Harbornite]

What do they want that we make or sell?

Land Rovers.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Some interesting graphs here, although I feel that some Brexiters will find them boring because they don't care about boring things such as "economics" and "facts".

 

[EM2]

Land Rovers.

Not imported ones though: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...r-Land-Rover-opens-milestone-China-plant.html

The plant is part of a 10.9bn yuan (£1.1bn) investment and is located in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu, north of Shanghai. The factory has a planned production capacity of 130,000 cars in its first year. The first model to roll off the line will be the luxury Range Rover Evoque vehicle, its most popular vehicle in China.
“Since its launch, one in five Range Rover Evoques have been sold in China. Our decision to manufacture the Range Rover Evoque in Jiangsu is a result of our commitment to bringing more Chinese vehicles to Chinese customers,” said JLR chief executive Dr Ralf Speth.

 

[miami]

All the people that overstay or come in the Irish route won't be counted. It's all a fix! There's no way Brexit will ever admit that immigration and our overall population is still going on, and at an upward rate too!

I'd like to know at what point would they accept Brexit is a "fail"? But by then, going back home to the EU would be so expensive....and that's not just the price of humble pie.

OK, fair enough....what would Brexit call a "success" - a pint in which remainers like me could hold our hands up and say "OK squire, you were right and we were wrong"?

It's actually a good reason for a euro-federalist to vote leave. When we go back to europe, we won't have vetos and rebates and schengen/euro optouts, we'll be an equal partner.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Why you think becoming a self-governing nation would take us back to 1947 is beyond me but there you go.

Well I don't actually think that because without a Tardis it would obviously be impossible.

It's merely a representation of the fantasy land the more limited Brexit voters hold, "take back my country, we want to be proper English like it used to be"

When? What era are you talking about where it was the Darling Buds of May every day?

Vote for something new maybe but no-one seems to be able to tell me what that is and how it will work. Don't vote for something that never existed.

 

[Gutfright]

Nonsense. 40% of UK exports go to the EU. No EU country sends more than 7% of its exports to the UK. (Neither number will be reduced to zero in any case). The UK is absolutely not in a position of strength.

The idea that the EU is so flush with cash that they can afford to reject the billions they get from us is nonsense. With the financial problems they have coming up, they are in no position to punish us financially for controlling our borders. That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. It's not going to happen.

 

[SS4]

The idea that the EU is so flush with cash that they can afford to reject the billions they get from us is nonsense. With the financial problems they have coming up, they are in no position to punish us financially for controlling our borders. That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. It's not going to happen.

It will hurt but not fatally. The EU looks better on the balance sheet though and I can't help but feel that you're under the impression that we can just march into Brussels make our demands and get the lion's share.

They'll just attach conditions like they did with Norway and Switzerland. One of which is free movement for citizens.

 

[anme]

The idea that the EU is so flush with cash that they can afford to reject the billions they get from us is nonsense. With the financial problems they have coming up, they are in no position to punish us financially for controlling our borders. That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. It's not going to happen.

Do you understand what a trade agreement is? It's not about banning trade between countries. It's about the terms of that trade. For example, a country might impose tariffs on certain goods to protect a certain industry, or prevent "dumping" of excess production from elsewhere, or ensure a special status for products such as stilton cheese, or Bordeaux wine, etc. Or many other things. I am sure an agreement would be reached (although it will take a lot of time). The question is whether the terms favour one side or the other.

In a negotiation like this, both sides will try to ensure terms that offer some protection to their native industries, and if they can, that give them some advantage. Given the 40/7% split, I think it's clear who needs the deal to be completed more quickly. I assume everyone here understands the difference between 40% and 7%?

 

[Howardh]

The idea that the EU is so flush with cash that they can afford to reject the billions they get from us is nonsense. With the financial problems they have coming up, they are in no position to punish us financially for controlling our borders. That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. It's not going to happen.

Brexit are obsessed by these "borders". Anyone from the EU will still be able to walk in - they just say they're a tourist - and disappear into the black economy. Not to mention the wide open Irish one.

This obsession is becoming delusional - there will be a spike of immigrants in before these "borders" are "controlled" so we will have MORE EU immigration to start with, and then if you think those we don't want won't get in after Bday then you might have a wee shock.

Even pro-leave MP's admit that. The only difference will be those without some kind of stamp can't work...legally. Now how much difference will that make?

 

[miami]

Even pro-leave MP's admit that. The only difference will be those without some kind of stamp can't work...legally. Now how much difference will that make?

Well it certainly won't get better than the current state of affairs.

I suspect that illegal work will increase, and more honest people paying taxes will be out of a job.

16 April 2016: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-36062701

A number of illegal workers have been found working on the construction site of the UK's biggest prison, a court has heard.
Flintshire Magistrates' Court was told an immigration enforcement team visited the site of the £212m Berwyn Prison in Wrexham on Friday.
The details emerged during the Saturday hearing of a man from Ukraine who is accused of working illegally.

5 April 2016: http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news...al-workers-arrested-shops-businesses-11140902

Immigration officers raided restaurants, takeaways and shops where they arrested a number of employees suspected of illegally working in the UK.

Acting on intelligence, officers visited:

• Montane Warehouse in Freeman Court, North Seaton Industrial Estate, Ashington

• Gino’s Fish Bar in Plessey Road, Blyth

• Lebaneat restaurant in North Bailey, Durham

Staff at all three businesses were questioned in relation to their immigration status.

At Gino’s Fish Bar, two Indian men, aged 30 and 47, were arrested after they were allegedly in the UK illegally.

The 47-year-old is suspected of having entered the country illegally, while it is claimed the 30-year-old had overstayed a family visit visa. Both were arrested and are now detained pending their removal from the country

17 May 2016 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/restaurant-director-gets-6-year-ban-for-illegal-worker-employment

Mr Khan failed to ensure that NK Bros Limited complied with immigration law resulting in the employment of three illegal workers. Following a visit from Home Office immigration officers on 11 June 2014, during which this breach was discovered, the company was fined a penalty of £30,000 by Home Office Immigration and Enforcement (HOIE). The company raised objections but these were rejected by HOIE and the fine remained in place. The company ceased trading on 3 October 2014.

7 Jun 2016 http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/1...wner_speaks_out_about_illegal_worker_scandal/

A Bexleyheath business owner has told of sleepless nights as an £80,000 fine loomed over him – after his fish and chip restaurant was dramatically raided by six police and border force officers.

Dan Beneng, who runs Top Quality Fish Bar, was facing the fee over four Indian men who were found to be working illegally in his takeaway earlier this year.

He says he could have been forced to close down in the wake of the scandal.

After proving he carried out proper right-to-work checks, and that the men had forged their documents, the Home Office cancelled Mr Beneng’s fine on April 10 – and he is now looking to clear his restaurant’s reputation.

Mr Beneng said: “I was panicking. £80,000 is a lot of money to pay, selling chips.

 

[dosxuk]

The idea that the EU is so flush with cash that they can afford to reject the billions they get from us is nonsense. With the financial problems they have coming up, they are in no position to punish us financially for controlling our borders. That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. It's not going to happen.

If the EU are as determined as the Brexiteers would have us believe, there's no way they will give us preferential terms in trade deals. If they do, it will rapidly lead to other members going, "hang on, we would be better off out too", and the whole project will collapse.

On the other hand, by making us suffer a bit, charging us to buy and sell goods in to the region and generally making it seem like a bad idea to quit the EU, they can nip the leaving trend in the bud before anyone else gets ideas to leave. And if there's one thing likely to make their financial problems even worse, it's more countries leaving.

 

[SS4]

Do you understand what a trade agreement is? It's not about banning trade between countries. It's about the terms of that trade. For example, a country might impose tariffs on certain goods to protect a certain industry, or prevent "dumping" of excess production from elsewhere, or ensure a special status for products such as stilton cheese, or Bordeaux wine, etc. Or many other things. I am sure an agreement would be reached (although it will take a lot of time). The question is whether the terms favour one side or the other.

A lot of the brexit proponents do understand - they just think we can obtain more favourable terms than on full membership or that the other benefits outweigh any trade losses. Personally, I believe it's naive

 

[Harbornite]

I'm finding the #thingsthatarewellbrexit twitter trend to be quite amusing and accurate, it pretty much sums up the brexiters on this forum.

https://twitter.com/search?q=#thingsthatarewellbrexit&src=typd

 

[Gutfright]

Even pro-leave MP's admit that. The only difference will be those without some kind of stamp can't work...legally. Now how much difference will that make?

It seems like we've had this conversation about a million times before.

You think that, post-Brexit, 100% of Europeans who would have moved to the UK will say "Eff it, I'm going to work in the UK illegally anyway"

I think that, post-Brexit, most of the Europeans who would have moved to the UK will say "Eff it, I'm going to work in Austria or Ireland or Sweden or somewhere instead then"

If you're right (spoiler alert: you are not right) then Brexit will not affect immigration.

If reality is right then Brexit will reduce immigration.

 

[Railops]

Heseltine on the radio today said we will join the Euro, we will have a European army, the EU will become one country eventually as that has always been the plan.
This is refreshing honesty from a dedicated Euro fanatic

 

[EM2]

If reality is right then Brexit will reduce immigration.

It may well do, but non-EU immigration is 180,000-odd a year. If we've not managed to reduce that as members of the EU, how will we reduce it outside, and what is to stop it increasing?

 

[Gutfright]

It will hurt but not fatally. The EU looks better on the balance sheet though and I can't help but feel that you're under the impression that we can just march into Brussels make our demands and get the lion's share.

They'll just attach conditions like they did with Norway and Switzerland. One of which is free movement for citizens.

Norway has a smaller population than London. Their GDP is a fraction of the UK's.

Britain has a far, far stronger hand than Norway or Switzerland did.