EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[YorkshireBear]

Europe stand firm on entry to Single Market, accept free movement. No special treatment for UK.

 

[miami]

Europe stand firm on entry to Single Market, accept free movement. No special treatment for UK.

As alsmost certainly does the majority of the UK. So that's all good then.

 

[anme]

Europe stand firm on entry to Single Market, accept free movement. No special treatment for UK.

Good. I really hope the UK just accepts this, with some clear losses to discourage others from being so moronic.

 

[DarloRich]

The far-right minority (which, thankfully is a very small minority, especially on this forum, a fact we can be proud of) should look at incidents like this and stop and think for a moment about the actions of the far-right:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36638258
As for the aforementioned t-shirt incident, claims it is not a big deal are absolutely ludicrous and deeply concerning.

but these people dont care what we think. They think we are all pawns in some zionist conspiracy to defraud the patriot of his birth right ( or somesuch sillyness) :roll:

They are total nimrods.

EDIT: it has been brought to my attention that the terminology initially used in this post may have caused offence. I assumed the term meant some kind of thick moron rather than someone with learning difficulties and have therefore changed the offending article. ( the original term is quoted below but i will not repeat it)

 

[Senex]

Good. I really hope the UK just accepts this, with some clear losses to discourage others from being so moronic.

Don't you think the UK is much more likely to go on and on trying to argue what a very special case we are and how we need and deserve arrangements specially tailored to meet our requirements?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Don't you think the UK is much more likely to go on and on trying to argue what a very special case we are and how we need and deserve arrangements specially tailored to meet our requirements?

Of course they will, because we're in a post-fact world.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
As things stand, it looks like we're set to lose the banks. This thread is extremely revealing.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/748097437047332864

Particularly:

The next Tory muchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slasshed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice.

It isn't only the Labour party that has turkeys voting for Christmas: the entire country does.

 

[Harbornite]

but these people dont care what we think. They think we are all pawns in some zionist conspiracy to defraud the patriot of his birth right ( or somesuch sillyness) :roll:

They are window lickers.

Very much so, I'm surprised that there are people who still believe in the zionist conspiracy crap which was debunked years ago. Many of the followers of such conspiracy have mental issues and find solace in the idea that everything is planned by a world order.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Europe stand firm on entry to Single Market, accept free movement. No special treatment for UK.

Some rumours are that France are willing to allow the UK to restrict free movement of workers, but in exchange our financial services won't be given unrestricted "passported" access to the Common Market.

The implication being that the financial services sector will have to move to Paris or Frankfurt.

But the deal will be tough on bankers and immigrants, which is what the Brexiteers say they want.

I hope it's true. It's so Machiavellian.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Where are all the Leavers who said the EU would be begging us to stay?

 

[Senex]

Where are all the Leavers who said the EU would be begging us to stay?

Because the EU needs us so badly? Isn't that just another of the Brexit campaign's lies?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Because the EU needs us so badly? Isn't that just another of the Brexit campaign's lies?

It was, but it's something they seemed so sure on because "WE'RE THE 5TH BIGGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD".

Even though it now looks like we'll have our largest industry gutted in exchange for being allowed to remain in the common market.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What is a window licker....it sounds very unhygienic...:roll:

 

[Harbornite]

What is a window licker....it sounds very unhygienic...:roll:

It's another term for someone who is... lacking in intelligence.

 

[Steveman]

FTSE 100 now above what it was before Brexit so much for the immature, childish and downright hysterical predictions from the normal suspects who are simply desperate to be proved right.

 

[northwichcat]

FTSE 100 now above what it was before Brexit so much for the immature, childish and downright hysterical predictions from the normal suspects who are simply desperate to be proved right.

There was uncertainty before Brexit which lowered it. It needs to get back up up to the June 2015 level.

 

[Qwerty133]

There was uncertainty before Brexit which lowered it. It needs to get back up up to the June 2015 level.

No it doesn't, as there have been a number of other factors that mean that will have lowered it as well as brexit.
The Chinese slowdown, the emergence of Donald Trump, increased issues in the middle east and migrant crisis, and increased numbers of terrorist attacks throughout the world. Also a new prime minister and probably leader of the opposition being imminent won't help either.

 

[miami]

Seems likely that the U.K. will remain in the single market, hence a recovery.

 

[radamfi]

FTSE 100 now above what it was before Brexit so much for the immature, childish and downright hysterical predictions from the normal suspects who are simply desperate to be proved right.

That's because most FTSE 100 companies make most of their money outside the UK so would be earning in dollars, euros, yen etc.

You should really be looking at the performance of the FTSE 250 to see how more British-orientated companies are doing as those companies make more of their money in the UK and in £.

 

[TheKnightWho]

That's because most FTSE 100 companies make most of their money outside the UK so would be earning in dollars, euros, yen etc.

You should really be looking at the performance of the FTSE 250 to see how more British-orientated companies are doing as those companies make more of their money in the UK and in £.

Don't be silly - that wouldn't be what the Daily Mail/Express are bleating on about.

 

[northwichcat]

No it doesn't, as there have been a number of other factors that mean that will have lowered it as well as brexit.
The Chinese slowdown, the emergence of Donald Trump, increased issues in the middle east and migrant crisis, and increased numbers of terrorist attacks throughout the world. Also a new prime minister and probably leader of the opposition being imminent won't help either.

I was rushing my post earlier. I meant to say the Pound to Euro and Pound to Dollar levels need to rise to their 2015 levels and if Brexit is good for our economy maybe the Pound to Euro level will go above it's pre-recession level of 1.51? After all countries like Greece are having a negative effect on the Euro rate but we can't blame other countries for the pound's value being worse.

 

[Mvann]

I have now caught up with the posts. To anme and co.
1. With regards trade deals. I didn't mention special trade deals and my point was that we might get a better deal than we have now quicker than the EU because it could be done quicker and be more suitable to the uk. It's taken at least 5 years to get where the EU is with the USA on that deal and looks like it could take another 4years? Using your Canada scenario, we could get a deal quicker with them as they are dealing with one country, not one union of 27 countries. This I because you have to get 27 countries to agree to the deal. That is one reason the EU needs reform because new trade deals are taking too long.

2. I didn't vote out to stop free movement. I voted out because at times there needs to be restrictions for a short period of time. There is very little in the EU rulings to allow this unless an epedemic breaks out, and it would be the WHO that would be the ones to enforce it. Another reason for EU reforms.

3. The point out about the regular non EU traveller document was made about ease of travel not freedom of travel. The same as the point about issuing a work permit/visa having tourist visas added on to it at the time of issue. These may not have been the case in the past, but it's an idea that I have no problem with.

So to recap. I voted leave because there needs to be reform in the EU, some of which have been known about for years. Because the changes needed to be agreed by 28 countries and the EU Commision don't really want it, it wasn't going to happen anytime soon. Up until last Friday, only the Germans were also pushing for change as far as I know. Since last Friday, the polish and, I think, the Hungarians have now added there voices. So by voting leave, the EU may now start implementing changes. Voice heard.

 

[Rich McLean]

An expert appearing on a news channel last night said Scotland cannot remain a member of both the UK and the EU if England & Wales leave unless there are significant changes to what power is devolved to Scotland.

A financial expert also appearing said Osborne doesn't need to raise taxes or introduce more spending cuts as quantitative easing could be used instead but in a less capitalist way than Osborne did last time meaning individuals feel the benefits instead of businesses.

QE will devalue the pound and reduce the value of Government Bonds. Not quite so easy

 

[47802]

Seems likely that the U.K. will remain in the single market, hence a recovery.

Really how do come to that conclusion, all I'm seeing at the moment is the EU sticking to the expected line of that if you want access to the single market, you have accept EU workers and pay us some money, rather than the Alice in wonderland Brexit Solution.

 

[Steveman]

You should really be looking at the performance of the FTSE 250 to see how more British-orientated companies are doing as those companies make more of their money in the UK and in £.

Ok let's look at it, on the Thursday before referendum day 16th June it was 16,032, today it closed at 16,003 up 3.22% in one day so virtually identical so not Armageddon is it.

 

[Groningen]

So we have Stephen Crabb and now also Liam Fox. You know that there can only 1 PM.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I have now caught up with the posts. To anme and co.
1. With regards trade deals. I didn't mention special trade deals and my point was that we might get a better deal than we have now quicker than the EU because it could be done quicker and be more suitable to the uk. It's taken at least 5 years to get where the EU is with the USA on that deal and looks like it could take another 4years? Using your Canada scenario, we could get a deal quicker with them as they are dealing with one country, not one union of 27 countries. This I because you have to get 27 countries to agree to the deal. That is one reason the EU needs reform because new trade deals are taking too long.

2. I didn't vote out to stop free movement. I voted out because at times there needs to be restrictions for a short period of time. There is very little in the EU rulings to allow this unless an epedemic breaks out, and it would be the WHO that would be the ones to enforce it. Another reason for EU reforms.

3. The point out about the regular non EU traveller document was made about ease of travel not freedom of travel. The same as the point about issuing a work permit/visa having tourist visas added on to it at the time of issue. These may not have been the case in the past, but it's an idea that I have no problem with.

So to recap. I voted leave because there needs to be reform in the EU, some of which have been known about for years. Because the changes needed to be agreed by 28 countries and the EU Commision don't really want it, it wasn't going to happen anytime soon. Up until last Friday, only the Germans were also pushing for change as far as I know. Since last Friday, the polish and, I think, the Hungarians have now added there voices. So by voting leave, the EU may now start implementing changes. Voice heard.

Point 1
I thought the EU was accused of being undemocratic with no choice however it's ok to stop asking all members if they agree with a deal?

You voted leave because you wanted to reform the EU? How are you going to do that from the outside? No it wasn't going to happen over night but it's never going to happen for you now.

 

[miami]

Point 1
I thought the EU was accused of being undemocratic with no choice however it's ok to stop asking all members if they agree with a deal?

You voted leave because you wanted to reform the EU? How are you going to do that from the outside? No it wasn't going to happen over night but it's never going to happen for you now.

I thought merkal ran the entire EU in a dictatorial fashion? Now we hear that Germany wanted something but the rest of the EU didnt? I'm very confused.

Fortunatly we've got democracy back now, I look forward to choosing the new PM

Before the two largest economies in the EU wanted reform, now they don't. Before it was countries providing 36% of the EU GDP, now it's 28%. Before countries with 29.2% of the EU population wanted reform, now it's 29.6%.

 

[Rich McLean]

The way I see it is this.

EEA and Freedom of Movement with all the rules etc dictated to by Brussels.
Pros:
- Certain Directives can be taken back under UK control, which don't affect the 4 fundamental pre-requisites of a Free Trade Arrangement.
- The Banks and large multinational companies are far more likely to stay in London
- More likely that NI and Scotland hang around.
- Value of pound increases, less tax rises, more investment, share prices increase.

Cons:
- Unlimited Freedom of Movement from the EU
- A UKIP backlash
- Public Unrest among the leave voters who wanted to end uncontrolled migration
- In a worse position than if we stayed in the EU. We would still be paying around the same amount of money for EEA but with No Rebate
- No control or any say in future trade deals
- Will lose next General Election (highly probable)

The alternative is WTO rules.
Pro's:
- Control of Borders and Visa system enforced
- Red tape removed
- Ability to strike trade deals under our terms
- Leave voters kept happy.
- £350m per day we are not spending on EU membership, which can be used elsewhere

Cons:
- Banking sector will move out of London and to Frankfurt or Paris (other EU Cities are available)
- Large Job Losses
- A total crash by the pound, where it is worth less than $1
- FTSE 350 reaches lowest level on record
- Scotland and NI vote to leave.
- Investment stops, so large projects such as HS2, Rail Electrification schemes, Energy sector etc are stopped in their tracks and put on the back burner.
- NHS Cuts
- Wage cuts
- Price increases
- Housing Market crash (not always a bad thing)

However, all that said, this can be compromised a bit
- WTO rules, however, Tariffs for certain goods and services reduced in exchange for allowing EU workers the right to live and work in the UK. However this wouldn't be freedom of movement as of now and would be controlled and monitored.
- The £350m per day membership fee could be used to offset tariff costs to businesses, as well as much of it being used to cover the costs in the financial sector. However, this would leave very little for other investment in the UK, but would soften the blow.
- We can compete with the EU with other nations by offering Tariff discounts to undercut the EU, or dare I say it, Free Trade deals elsewhere in the longer term.
- Reduce co-operation tax initially, but slowly increase it over time.

If the Government are prepared to offset the costs to the banks and large businesses, then many may stay. We will lose tax receipts, but we have to look at other ways, and if this means reducing Co-operation tax and offsetting costs associated with losing Free Trade, then that will have to happen.

It's very risky.

It's a lose-lose scenario for the Government. Accept EEA and never get elected, only for the next administration to propose to exit the EEA, or not accept EEA and risk going bankrupt.

Don't forget that creditors could call in Government debt if they feel the risk is too high

 

[radamfi]

Ok let's look at it, on the Thursday before referendum day 16th June it was 16,032, today it closed at 16,003 up 3.22% in one day so virtually identical so not Armageddon is it.

That's not quite the end of it as those market caps are measured in pounds, and so if you measure the value of the FTSE 250 in dollars then you are looking at quite a loss.

 

[cjmillsnun]

- The £350m per day membership fee could be used to offset tariff costs to businesses, as well as much of it being used to cover the costs in the financial sector. However, this would leave very little for other investment in the UK, but would soften the blow.

The £350 million figure was a lie. It works out to be far less.

Also we have zero people who are experienced with negotiating trade deals. I'll say that again. NOT ONE PERSON. These deals normally take 5 years minimum to negotiate if you do have experienced people.