GEML franchise 2016

[F Great Eastern]

That's what happened here, especially with the 379 fleet. They were bonkers expensive compared to what was being offered new.

The difference was the 379s were ordered at a time when there was a dearth of stock, which proves what I am trying to say,, that such environment is good for the ROSCOS because they can get maximum money for new stock and dictate the prices for older stock and stretch it's life out as much as they can.

It's basic economics but the less assets that are out there, the more money you can make. The last thing the ROSCOS want is a huge amount of trains out there where the TOC's can pick and choose and dictate what terms they pay or the stock lies around as a non performing asset, they want a situation where they can dictate the price.

An oversupply of units on the market is the very worst thing for a ROSCO since a TOC can pick or choose what it wants and negotiate the price by playing the ROSCOS off each other, which forces the ROSCOS to offer lower prices.

The only thing the ROSCOS can do about that is make sure that they price new stock at such a level that they can recoup the money they lose, or making sure they are expensive enough so the TOCs are more likely to commit to long term deals for older stock, to reduce the number of spare trains on the market, to get to a situation where there is not much more supply than demand like the last few years.

You need to look at it from the ROSCOS point of view not just the TOCS. They're not going to stand idly by and let the TOCS dictate how the rolling stock market should be run.

 

[daikilo]

The difference was the 379s were ordered at a time when there was a dearth of stock, which proves what I am trying to say,, that such environment is good for the ROSCOS because they can get maximum money for new stock and dictate the prices for older stock and stretch it's life out as much as they can.

It's basic economics but the less assets that are out there, the more money you can make. The last thing the ROSCOS want is a huge amount of trains out there where the TOC's can pick and choose and dictate what terms they pay or the stock lies around as a non performing asset, they want a situation where they can dictate the price.

An oversupply of units on the market is the very worst thing for a ROSCO since a TOC can pick or choose what it wants and negotiate the price by playing the ROSCOS off each other, which forces the ROSCOS to offer lower prices.

The only thing the ROSCOS can do about that is make sure that they price new stock at such a level that they can recoup the money they lose, or making sure they are expensive enough so the TOCs are more likely to commit to long term deals for older stock, to reduce the number of spare trains on the market, to get to a situation where there is not much more supply than demand like the last few years.

You need to look at it from the ROSCOS point of view not just the TOCS. They're not going to stand idly by and let the TOCS dictate how the rolling stock market should be run.

Which makes me think Abelio may find that they cannot actually deliver on their bid content, unless of course they have funding arrangements in place such as new ROSCOs.

 

[F Great Eastern]

That's capitalism. They will have to make prices competitive enough so that a new rolling stock order is not cheaper to do.

But either way the TOC wins with that. The ROSCO does not, so the ROSCO will seek to try and fix prices or create situations where demand is much closer to supply, which is what allowed them to get good deals on the 379, because demand and supply were virtually the same so they were able to get good money out of the TOC.

If they were being a financially astute bank, they'd price both higher in future, but the newer stock high enough so it wasn't worth taking it over the older stock. If the TOC's don't like it, that will be tough, they can pay it or have no trains, the ROSCOS will dictate the market, they own the assets after all.

At the end of the day if they believe that as a result of these orders the average lifetime of rolling stock is reduced, they will seek to recover the costs and an appropriate profit over a shorter time. They will not allow leasing rates to be driven down by the over supply of rolling stock meaning assets need to be disposed of quicker than normal, when they get to saturation point, you can be assured they will take action to prevent it hitting their profits.

As I said, they are banks, not charities and disposing of assets early and lowering prices and the excess supply of units at low prices is bad for business for them and steps will be taken to prevent loss of profit margins.

 

[Alfie1014]

As I said in an earlier post we'll have to wait and see the detail but SBB's new EC250 trains being built by Stadler suggest that they can deliver an InterCity product, see below in German. First set to be displayed at InnoTrains next month in Berlin.

http://www.epf.eu/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Stadler-EC250-Presentation-Hungary-21.03.20151.pdf

I think what is more interesting is that all Stadler's products are articulated and Network Rail have thus far been far from keen on such trains due to their increased track forces.

The Aventras are also interesting as being 22-23m length there's going to be loads of route clearance needed for them, an awful lot of work to be undertaken and all crews to be retrained on new traction for timely entry into service by 2019/20!

 

[F Great Eastern]

Which makes me think Abelio may find that they cannot actually deliver on their bid content, unless of course they have funding arrangements in place such as new ROSCOs.

I would assume that Abellio will be insulated from this because all of the rolling stock costs have been worked into the price of the bid, unless they did their sums wrong which would be pretty basic error they wouldn't make.

The ROSCOS would far prefer that people use older stock especially after this deal, because older stock has to be replaced far quicker than new stock, and the more older stock that is used, the less there is lying around, the less newer stock ordered after this deal, the smaller the gap between supply and demand, which makes a stock shortage more likely, which then pushes up further the price of new rolling stock they can charge

This is what happened with the 379s, if there was lots of spare EMU's laying around being unused or parked up there is no way in hell NXEA would have paid the amount they did for the 379s to join the franchise, the fact was there was nothing laying around because it was those trains or no trains, NXEA decided to lease some more trains, so the ROSCOS told them the effectively, pay up what we ask or no trains and pay up they did.

They can't do that when there is an oversupply of trains on the market.

 

[Clarence Yard]

As I said, they are banks, not charities and disposing of assets early and lowering prices and the excess supply of units at low prices is bad for business for them and steps will be taken to prevent loss of profit margins.

Not quite. The ROSCOs want their asset values to be high in their books and their net lease costs to be high. Having to shell out serious money on keeping 25 plus year old stock going may be a relatively bad deal for them when compared to getting a better net wedge from newer stock.

When new stock was so expensive to finance the ROSCOs would always try to mod old stock and play the asset revaluation game in their books, as well as jacking their lease prices. Now substantial city finance is in play for all kind of assets, the ROSCOs are falling over themselves trying to get new assets on their books while they can.

That means TOCs (and owning groups such as the one I work for) are now able to get good deals together for new stock as well as the potential to get hold of decent newish second hand stock that we couldn't get hold of unless we robbed another TOC at their lease end dates.

The ROSCOs know that this policy is going to lead to the older assets getting junked and this is being priced into their business plans. They are quite open with us about this. They will obviously try to get older assets placed if they can but I can assure you some of them are well pleased at the prospect of not to having to spend serious cash keeping them going.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Angel Trains are financing the Bombardier Aventra purchase.

Angel Trains also own the Class 317 and Class 360 fleets, so this may suggest they've provisionally placed at least the Class 360 units with one of their Class 350 customers.

 

[WatcherZero]

Is this the first post ever complaining that too many new trains have been ordered?

To be fair I think if this board had been around back then people would have also been complaining about thousands of carriages ordered for London that only ran twice a day and spent the rest of the day sitting in yards.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Angel Trains also own the Class 317 and Class 360 fleets, so this may suggest they've provisionally placed at least the Class 360 units with one of their Class 350 customers.

I'd say it's possible that all the 360s will end up with 350s. Angel Trains would have worked that into their calculations I'd have said.

The 317s I expect will not see any more service and will be scrapped. Some will be 40 years old pretty much by the time all the new stock is here and there will be plenty of much newer stock around at that date as well.

Nobody is going to pick 40 year old 317 stock when at the same time there's going to be another 150 EMUs on the market from GA alone and that is totally disregarding a whole load of other more modern cast offs from other TOCs.

I still can't work out what is going to happen with all those 321s, gonna be hard finding homes for all them as well.

 

[dubscottie]

As I said in an earlier post we'll have to wait and see the detail but SBB's new EC250 trains being built by Stadler suggest that they can deliver an InterCity product, see below in German. First set to be displayed at InnoTrains next month in Berlin.

http://www.epf.eu/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Stadler-EC250-Presentation-Hungary-21.03.20151.pdf

I think what is more interesting is that all Stadler's products are articulated and Network Rail have thus far been far from keen on such trains due to their increased track forces.

The Aventras are also interesting as being 22-23m length there's going to be loads of route clearance needed for them, an awful lot of work to be undertaken and all crews to be retrained on new traction for timely entry into service by 2019/20!

If the can do that in the UK loading gauge they might not be bad.

Articulated stock is mad though. Almost zero flexibility.

 

[TheEdge]

If the can do that in the UK loading gauge they might not be bad.

Articulated stock is mad though. Almost zero flexibility.

Is it really any less flexible that a modern MU? Its not like they can split or reformed with any great ease.

 

[F Great Eastern]

If the can do that in the UK loading gauge they might not be bad.

Articulated stock is mad though. Almost zero flexibility.

Having looked at the photos, they don't seem to be very durable for an intercity train, the design isn't bad, but I'd have doubts about the robustness of them. The general design whilst clinical is modern though.

The seats look very thin and short on padding for an intercity train and the luggage panels look to be one continuous panel that is only fixed to the train at either end rather than at intervals, a design which normally lends itself to rattles. They'd have to be a bit souped up from that I think to be a good intercity train, better seating and better paneling with also more of a downward curve to keep luggage stowed.

 

[CapitalStar378]

So will Liverpool Street be Aventra only in the future? There's LO West Anglia 710's, Crossrail 345's and now the new GA Aventra stock to come.

 

[TheEdge]

The seats look very thin and short on padding for an intercity train and the luggage panels look to be one continuous panel that is only fixed to the train at either end rather than at intervals, a design which normally lends itself to rattles. They'd have to be a bit souped up from that I think to be a good intercity train, better seating and better paneling with also more of a downward curve to keep luggage stowed.

What part of customisable modular design are you not grasping?

 

[F Great Eastern]

Is it really any less flexible that a modern MU? Its not like they can split or reformed with any great ease.

Knowing someone who works in Poland where Stadler And PESA trains/trams are quite common, I was told that they were a little more tough to split and reform than actual carriages and the fact that they are between carriages rather than carriages being attached directly to each other, is an added complication in separating them.

 

[TheEdge]

So will Liverpool Street be Aventra only in the future? There's LO West Anglia 710's, Crossrail 345's and now the new GA Aventura stock to come.

No, they'll be the GA Intercity FLIRTs and I guess dotted throughout the day the bi-mode rural FLIRTs from Lowestoft

 

[F Great Eastern]

So will Liverpool Street be Aventra only in the future? There's LO West Anglia 710's, Crossrail 345's and now the new GA Aventra stock to come.

Aventra and FLIRT.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

What part of customisable modular design are you not grasping?

Christ, someone posted a link up stating it was an Intercity design and I just commented on it, keep your hair on, if we're not allowed to comment on links and that is new forum policy, please accept my apologies.

 

[HH]

Which makes me think Abelio may find that they cannot actually deliver on their bid content, unless of course they have funding arrangements in place such as new ROSCOs.

Well on ScotRail the finance came from a Japanese Bank. I don't think they'll have any problems if they've signed up to deliver - they wouldn't take the risk.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Aventra and FLIRT.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Christ, someone posted a link up stating it was an Intercity design and I just commented on it, keep your hair on, if we're not allowed to comment on links and that is new forum policy, please accept my apologies.

The Stadler EC250 promotional video is well worth a look. It's the new Swiss IC unit, but it shares some significant similarities with the CGI image of the GB stock.

http://www.elefantstudios.ch/index.php?article_id=203&clang=0
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Well on ScotRail the finance came from a Japanese Bank. I don't think they'll have any problems if they've signed up to deliver - they wouldn't take the risk.

It's at least half funded - Angel are covering the Bombardier stock.

 

[LAX54]

I see there are 10 new trains to cover the IC services, which will be upped to 3 an hour all day. that means that ALL 10 units will in traffic all day everyday !

 

[samuelmorris]

Is it not possible that the third Norwich service will be an extension of the current xx02 to Ipswich stopping service (as already happens in the peak), and thus be run by Aventras?

 

[F Great Eastern]

There are 2 trains in each direction each day to Norwich in 90 minutes and one train to Ipswich in each direction each day in 60 minutes. However it is quite possible that the Ipswich one and one of the Norwich ones in each direction could be the same.

What I was touching on earlier about 10 intercity trains for 10 diagrams is what I was touching on earlier as well. There is either going to have to be an EMU service to Norwich an hour or an EMU service to cover when one set is out of service for work etc which won't go down well with some.

Personally I can see them keeping a few MK3 sets on until the fleet beds down and is reliable enough.

 

[J-2739]

I see there are 10 new trains to cover the IC services, which will be upped to 3 an hour all day. that means that ALL 10 units will in traffic all day everyday !

That's asking for disaster. What if one of them unfortunately breaks down and there are no spares? Where would they get spares.

EDIT: Just read comment by F Great Eastern. Now I know!

 

[samuelmorris]

Going for no slack in any part of this fleet defeats the entire object, I can't believe they would allow any less than a greater % slack in the fleet than there is now as it's well known to be very tight on the East Anglia franchise. The off-peak cycle time for the existing Norwich services is 5 hours so unless the turnaround time was reduced they'd need all 10 units just to run 2tph never mind 3. Timetable improvements from the faster stock plus some shorter turnarounds could probably get them to a 4 hour cycle, which would give them a 25% or two unit overhead. That I think is really the bare minimum - it doesn't look from the spec sheet at Railway Gazette that there's any intention of the Stansted Express and Norwich units being interchangeable, though perhaps they might in the event of a few failures.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Going for no slack in any part of this fleet defeats the entire object, I can't believe they would allow any less than a greater % slack in the fleet than there is now as it's well known to be very tight on the East Anglia franchise. The off-peak cycle time for the existing Norwich services is 5 hours so unless the turnaround time was reduced they'd need all 10 units just to run 2tph never mind 3. Timetable improvements from the faster stock plus some shorter turnarounds could probably get them to a 4 hour cycle, which would give them a 25% or two unit overhead. That I think is really the bare minimum - it doesn't look from the spec sheet at Railway Gazette that there's any intention of the Stansted Express and Norwich units being interchangeable, though perhaps they might in the event of a few failures.

The logistics of that though is not going to be that easy if they are on West Anglia and the Intercitys are East.

HOWEVER.

There is talk of a Norwich to Stansted Airport service that may also use some of the Airport fleet which could provide backup? Note how they are designated airport units, not Stansted Express.

 

[samuelmorris]

That's unlikely to be wired up in the near future though is it? At least to begin with I'd have thought Stansted units heading northeast would be the the 4-car Bi-modes.

 

[Sprinter153]

The Stadler EC250 promotional video is well worth a look. It's the new Swiss IC unit, but it shares some significant similarities with the CGI image of the GB stock.

http://www.elefantstudios.ch/index.php?article_id=203&clang=0.

The standard class seating of the EC250 is terribly redolent of the old Mark 2 armchairs!

 

[Harbornite]

The graphic on Railway Gazette suggests a different supplier for the three car units, "Stadler AG" rather than "Stadler" - typo or actually a different type of unit ?

Big German companies are either AG (Aktiengesellschaft) which is their equivalent to a PLC or GMBH (Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung) which is like an ltd.

 

[F Great Eastern]

That's unlikely to be wired up in the near future though is it? At least to begin with I'd have thought Stansted units heading northeast would be the the 4-car Bi-modes.

Obviously not, brain fade at this late hour.

I can only see one of those services being operated an hour as an EMU to be honest, it's the only way it's going to work, be interested to see what the stopping pattern is like on the EMU service.

Personally, it comes back to what I was saying earlier, we're already talking about half baked solutions to reach the 3 trains an hour to Norwich and about fleet availability and what happens when one gets taken out of service, since failures and accidents are going to happen.

But instead of providing enough backup, we've decided to replace every single train in the whole region, warranted or not, but can't possibly afford any kind of proper contingency of slack in the fleet for what happens when one of our new Intercity trains fail on our flagship route because the money is all spent it seems on vanity exercises to replace 5 year old trains rather than ensuring a route has enough adequate stock to run it's daily allocations on a regular basis.

 

[jon0844]

Can you imagine the state things will be in if we do this on every single franchise? They could argue the very same reasons, we want new trains, lets go order another 1000 carriages, we want a uniform fleet, yes, I know that we have 200 carriages we ordered and had delivered 4 years ago, but they're second rate now, we want new and we want them now.

I read the cascade thread and it's pretty obvious already we have problems where a lot of units that are only around half way through their lifespan are now not going to find a home because of the crazy amount of new units that are coming in. All it's gonna mean is ROSCOS are gonna realise that they are going to get less than a full life out of perfectly good trains and they put their rates up = higher ticket prices.

Just so TOC's can have a bunch of shiny new toys in new paint they don't actually need. Considering the ridicolous restrictions that were placed on TOC's in the past, we've now come to a lubricious situation where the DFT is on one hand stopping people ordering relevant capacity for overcrowded services in recent years and to replace very very old stock, but is perfectly happy to sanction replacements for stock that is 5 years old.

I actually think there's beginning to be signs of there being some longer term planning here.

When we've had train builds, most have had options for additional stock. Much of these options have been taken.

Look at the 387s. Lots more built and perhaps when all the other 70xs are made, there will be another tag on order so the final GN trains become the same.

Their 387s will join with GWR, all the 365s will get together once more, other compatible trains will join up (maybe the 317s will survive, maybe not, but certainly the 319s and 321s) and so on.

I'd also like to see the older stock used as an affordable way to strengthen trains to cope with ever increasing demand, and maybe even some trains kept in warm storage to cope with future demands. Yes, crazy idea, bringing out some old stock from time to time if necessary.

In Stockholm they've re-intoduced some 1960s stock to cover for gaps with the new trains (not sure entirely why) but someone saw fit to store them rather than scrap them.

Some of these older 1980s trains are able to be worked in lots of places so as long as drivers can still sign them and until new signalling renders them unusable, we are in a great position this time around - compared to when we had new trains replacing slammers that are never coming back!