Wales & Borders Franchise

[gareth950]

So seeing as the process of awarding the next W&B franchise continues to be held in a vacuum, all we can do is speculate. Reading an article from 17th February on subscription website www.transportxtra.com about Vivarail's hopes for the D-train despite the fire setback, Adrian Shooter says this to the reporter:

So where is Vivarail now in terms of prospects for sales of its trains? According to Shooter, still very much on track. “I’ve actually got a small order,” he says. “Then I think I’m three months away from my next order, which is contingent on a franchise bid. We’ve got a confidentially agreement, so we can’t announce anything, but we will do it along with bidders.”

Link to article https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...ish-about-d-train-demand-despite-fire-setback

Shooter also mentions the Looe branch line and the Heart of Wales line as being ideal lines for the D-train. So, what's the chances of at least one of these confidential, secret orders being for Wales? Makes sense given 1) the timing he mentions, 2) the cloak and dagger secrecy of the next Welsh franchise award process and 3) it might explain the inaction in Wales to modify any of ATWs existing DMUs ready for 2020.
Replacing Pacers with D-trains can make sense, but replacing perfectly good 150s with 40 year old D-trains doesn't. Plus there's the danger that D-trains in Wales could become Mark-II Pacers and used as an excuse to delay infrastructure improvements, namely electrification.

 

[craigybagel]

So seeing as the process of awarding the next W&B franchise continues to be held in a vacuum, all we can do is speculate. Reading an article from 17th February on subscription website www.transportxtra.com about Vivarail's hopes for the D-train despite the fire setback, Adrian Shooter says this to the reporter:


Link to article https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...ish-about-d-train-demand-despite-fire-setback

Shooter also mentions the Looe branch line and the Heart of Wales line as being ideal lines for the D-train. So, what's the chances of at least one of these confidential, secret orders being for Wales? Makes sense given 1) the timing he mentions, 2) the cloak and dagger secrecy of the next Welsh franchise award process and 3) it might explain the inaction in Wales to modify any of ATWs existing DMUs ready for 2020.
Replacing Pacers with D-trains can make sense, but replacing perfectly good 150s with 40 year old D-trains doesn't. Plus there's the danger that D-trains in Wales could become Mark-II Pacers and used as an excuse to delay infrastructure improvements, namely electrification.

I'm happy to be proved wrong - and personally I think D trains could be very good for ATW (although I think they'd be more suited to the Valley lines than the Heart of Wales for several different reasons) - but I just can't see the Welsh Assembly accepting them.

 

[gareth950]

I'm happy to be proved wrong - and personally I think D trains could be very good for ATW (although I think they'd be more suited to the Valley lines than the Heart of Wales for several different reasons) - but I just can't see the Welsh Assembly accepting them.

Why not? Because they will be seen as 40 year old London cast-offs?
Wales needs extra trains from somewhere to get the network past 2020, especially on the Valleys if Pacers are withdrawn by 2019.

 

[craigybagel]

Why not? Because they will be seen as 40 year old London cast-offs?

Exactly - and I can't see them getting around this fact. Never mind that they could be useful, and aren't much older than some of ATW's existing stock, I just can't see the WAG going for it - as much as I'd love them to.

 

[notlob.divad]

It as been mentioned that the Merseytravel are working with the Welsh government to see if D trains maybe used to double the frequency of the Atw Wrexham to Bidston line. Sorry don't have a source to hand.

 

[northwichcat]

So seeing as the process of awarding the next W&B franchise continues to be held in a vacuum, all we can do is speculate. Reading an article from 17th February on subscription website www.transportxtra.com about Vivarail's hopes for the D-train despite the fire setback, Adrian Shooter says this to the reporter:


Link to article https://www.transportxtra.com/publi...ish-about-d-train-demand-despite-fire-setback

Shooter also mentions the Looe branch line and the Heart of Wales line as being ideal lines for the D-train. So, what's the chances of at least one of these confidential, secret orders being for Wales? Makes sense given 1) the timing he mentions, 2) the cloak and dagger secrecy of the next Welsh franchise award process and 3) it might explain the inaction in Wales to modify any of ATWs existing DMUs ready for 2020.
Replacing Pacers with D-trains can make sense, but replacing perfectly good 150s with 40 year old D-trains doesn't. Plus there's the danger that D-trains in Wales could become Mark-II Pacers and used as an excuse to delay infrastructure improvements, namely electrification.

Is he counting the LM franchise taking on one to trial as an order or does he mean either LM taking on a multiple trains or a small order for a franchise (other than LM) and a larger order for a franchise (other than LM)?

 

[northwichcat]

It as been mentioned that the Merseytravel are working with the Welsh government to see if D trains maybe used to double the frequency of the Atw Wrexham to Bidston line. Sorry don't have a source to hand.

Merseytravel are also looking for a solution for Liverpool to Chester and beyond services. Maybe a solution could be to free up Sprinters from Conwy and Borderlands to extend the Wrexham to Chester service to Liverpool?

 

[anthony263]

I can see the WG going for the D trains for the core valley lines especially if they can pass them off as although london cast off's they will provide much needed extra capacity and allow the valleys to say goodbye to the pacers.

I also have a feeling we will see some of the class 319 flex units appear in wales at some point.

I don't think the public are too concerned about the use of the d trains if they provide good reliable service and extra capacity. As for the 150's I doubt we will be saying goodbye to these as they will be needed on other routes which I don't think the D trains are suited for

 

[Gareth Marston]

Viva rail need a successful trial before anyone touches them with a barge pole. And that isn't happening soon.

The bidders are still engaging with stakeholders my local RUG has Arriva coming to their April meeting. Though I think this is a mandatory requirement in the bid. Revenue growth has to be key to any bid and where this has been growing is largely away from within Wales. Chester to Manchester, Cambrian mainline, Shrewsbury to Birmingham and Cardiff to Manchester.

DFT has added extra completion between Chester and Manchester and Shrewsbury and Birmingham though. The Marches remains the obvious choice with best prospects. At least one bidder is suppose to be thinking Stadler bi mode in theory its under wires Swansea to Newport and Gresty Lane to Piccadily......

 

[coppercapped]

Plus there's the danger that D-trains in Wales could become Mark-II Pacers and used as an excuse to delay infrastructure improvements, namely electrification.

This is a classic example of the best being the enemy of the good.

(Under the current installation rate and the cost of electrification one is looking at electrification in Wales as being at least a decade away. At the present Wales receives a large subsidy/passenger-km so why not first try to build passenger numbers with a more frequent and possibly faster service using D-trains and improve the financial figures? There will then be a better chance of convincing the purse-holders of the benefits of electrification.)

 

[HH]

So where is Vivarail now in terms of prospects for sales of its trains? According to Shooter, still very much on track. “I’ve actually got a small order,” he says. “Then I think I’m three months away from my next order, which is contingent on a franchise bid. We’ve got a confidentially agreement, so we can’t announce anything, but we will do it along with bidders.”

You'll have to pardon me if I eat this BS with a large pinch of salt. It's always possible that one of the W&B bidders will look at the D Train, but there has been a marked lack of enthusiasm for them from bidders so far. And an even greater lack of enthusiasm for them from the DfT; I wouldn't put them in my bid if I wanted to win.

 

[Bletchleyite]

DFT has added extra completion between Chester and Manchester and Shrewsbury and Birmingham though. The Marches remains the obvious choice with best prospects. At least one bidder is suppose to be thinking Stadler bi mode in theory its under wires Swansea to Newport and Gresty Lane to Piccadily......

That seems on the face of it to be quite a short section of wires making bi-mode a bit pointless. But if Stadler use electric transmission on the FLIRT anyway (and I think they do), the only additional costs are of a pantograph and transformer, so maybe it's worth having it anyway for future-proofing? Once there are enough wires, remove the generator module, and you have a simple EMU.

 

[anthony263]

FLIRTS for the wales & borders franchise makes good sense especially if it allows for the continuation of the west wales - Cardiff - Manchester service which is a very useful crosscountry route and very popular.

With them being ordered for Greater Anglia tagging additional units onto the existing order would be good and it releases the class 158/175's to be used elsewhere such as improving services along the north wales coast.

Some units would also be ideal for other routes such as Maesteg - Cheltenham which will use the wires for most of the length eg Maesteg - Severn Tunnel Jct

 

[krus_aragon]

So seeing as the process of awarding the next W&B franchise continues to be held in a vacuum

That means there's no pressure, then.</physics joke>

 

[Gareth Marston]

That seems on the face of it to be quite a short section of wires making bi-mode a bit pointless. But if Stadler use electric transmission on the FLIRT anyway (and I think they do), the only additional costs are of a pantograph and transformer, so maybe it's worth having it anyway for future-proofing? Once there are enough wires, remove the generator module, and you have a simple EMU.

There's a good 50 miles Swansea to Newport and nearly 30 Gresty Lane to Piccadily.

 

[Envoy]

With 80 miles under the wires for the west Wales to Manchester’s - I would have thought it well worth ordering bi-mode trains. (The Marches Line between Newport and Abergavenny may also get eventually wired). I see that the Stadler trains have Jacob’s bogies - a common bogie between 2 coaches. How do they remove a damaged coach from a set with such bogies?

PS> The Maesteg's to Cheltenham’s could surely become an all electric service from Maesteg to Ebbw Vale very 30 minutes?

 

[Dai Corner]

Apparently the Assembly's Economy, infrastructure and Skills Committee are holding an inquiry to scrutinise the Welsh Government's plans for the franchise.

There are links to more information and a survey here

https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/rail-metro

 

[DelW]

Exactly - and I can't see them getting around this fact. Never mind that they could be useful, and aren't much older than some of ATW's existing stock, I just can't see the WAG going for it - as much as I'd love them to.

The Isle of Wight accepted 50 year old "London cast-offs" in 1989 and they're still providing the service nearly another 30 years later. They even attract some enthusiast traffic to the island.

Although there are concerns over the future of the line in the next franchise.

 

[eisenach]

Apparently the Assembly's Economy, infrastructure and Skills Committee are holding an inquiry to scrutinise the Welsh Government's plans for the franchise.

There are links to more information and a survey here

https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/rail-metro

Thank you for the link; I've completed the survey.

 

[CardiffKid]

The Isle of Wight accepted 50 year old "London cast-offs" in 1989 and they're still providing the service nearly another 30 years later. They even attract some enthusiast traffic to the island.

Although there are concerns over the future of the line in the next franchise.

But Carwyn Jones (Welsh First Minister) has said on numerous occasions "We don't want 40 year old trains"

 

[daikilo]

Interesting survey, but does ATW really operate trains from Crewe to Birmingham via Stafford (map on page 2 of the survey)?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Interesting survey, but does ATW really operate trains from Crewe to Birmingham via Stafford (map on page 2 of the survey)?

Yes, one a day each way to/from Chester (early/late positioning moves).
VT also run one a day each way to/from Bangor/Holyhead, also early/late.

 

[gareth950]

Apparently the Assembly's Economy, infrastructure and Skills Committee are holding an inquiry to scrutinise the Welsh Government's plans for the franchise.

There are links to more information and a survey here

https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/rail-metro

I'm pretty sure that survey closes today, 23rd February. So get your responses in quick!

 

[PHILIPE]

Yes, one a day each way to/from Chester (early/late positioning moves).
VT also run one a day each way to/from Bangor/Holyhead, also early/late.

Also maintain diversionary route knowledge

 

[313103]

Things could well be afoot within ATW as MD Ian Bullock is leaving his post. So at a time when a steady leadership is required it would appear that Mr Bullock is not the person taking ATW forward.

 

[craigybagel]

The Isle of Wight accepted 50 year old "London cast-offs" in 1989 and they're still providing the service nearly another 30 years later. They even attract some enthusiast traffic to the island.

I can see the WG going for the D trains for the core valley lines especially if they can pass them off as although london cast off's they will provide much needed extra capacity and allow the valleys to say goodbye to the pacers.

I also have a feeling we will see some of the class 319 flex units appear in wales at some point.

I don't think the public are too concerned about the use of the d trains if they provide good reliable service and extra capacity. As for the 150's I doubt we will be saying goodbye to these as they will be needed on other routes which I don't think the D trains are suited for

Yes the trains could do a great job, yes they are desperately needed, and yes there are older trains in use in other places. However.....

But Carwyn Jones (Welsh First Minister) has said on numerous occasions "We don't want 40 year old trains"

Bingo. It would take a massive change of heart for the WAG to come around to the idea, and I struggle to see that happening.

Yes, one a day each way to/from Chester (early/late positioning moves).
VT also run one a day each way to/from Bangor/Holyhead, also early/late.

Also maintain diversionary route knowledge

And most importantly of all, ferry lots of traincrew in to work!. But yes it is the only booked work both over Stafford and around Bescot for both Crewe guards (Chester on a Sunday) and Chester drivers. In an ideal world the Holyhead-Birmingham service would still run this way as we once the case since it's a lot quicker but sadly this is all that is left of it.