Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

[47802]

Personally I would like to see lefty Labour sent to oblivion and the birth of a proper centre left party not the Lib Dems and not funded by the lefty Unions to replace them. If Labour does get heavily defeated as many expect and I certainly hope then it needs to decide whether it wants to be a fringe left wing party or come back to the centre. I personally would like to see us get away from our current 2 party system really but with our first past the post system makes it difficult to work any other way and many don't seem to want to change to some form or proportional representation or have coalition governments you would likely get.

I'm also not that convinced that the Lib Dem's will do all that well a possible coalition with Labour might make Tory-Lib Dem constituencies think again.

 

[Barn]

One of the strange features of this election is that there will be a set of local elections right in the middle of the campaign. I wonder what effects the results of that election night might have on voting in the general election.

 

[Groningen]

So Wikipedia says that you had your last general election on May 7, 2015. A bit short to have a new election. Lets hear Donald Trump say that it is a good thing.

 

[PR1Berske]

Labour's top 30 target seats, and from whom:
1. Gower (Con)
2. Derby North (Con)
3. Croydon Central (Con)
4. Vale of Clwyd (Con)
5. Bury North (Con)
6. Morley and Outwood (Con)
7. Thurrock (Con)
8. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Con)
9. Brighton Kemptown (Con)
10. Bolton West (Con)
11. Weaver Vale (Con)
12. Telford (Con)
13. Bedford (Con)
14. Plymouth Moor View (Con)
15. Lincoln (Con)
16. Peterborough (Con)
17. Cardiff North (Con)
18. Sheffield Hallam (LibDem) (Nick Clegg's current seat)
19. Corby (Con)
20. Waveney (Con)
21. Warrington South (Con)
22. Southampton Itchen (Con)
23. Keighley (Con)
24. North Warwickshire (Con)
25. Carlisle (Con)
26. East Renfrewshire (SNP)
27. Leeds North West (LibDem)
28. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con)
29. Crewe and Nantwich (Con)
30. Erewash (Con)

 

[southern442]

They will need to put in a monumental amount of work. I'd say that with intensive campaigning they could win a couple of those.

 

[najaB]

So Wikipedia says that you had your last general election on May 7, 2015. A bit short to have a new election.

That's the point of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - to make it harder for a PM to call an election whenever they want. As it stands at 1825 on the 18th of April there isn't an election due until May 2020. However, if two thirds of the Members of Parliament agree with Teresa May then tomorrow the date will be brought forward to June 8 2017.

It looks like her request will get the support it needs, but nothing is certain until the votes are actually counted.

 

[PR1Berske]

They will need to put in a monumental amount of work. I'd say that with intensive campaigning they could win a couple of those.

It says much about the state of the current Labour Party that a) they have to win in places like Derby and Bolton, and b) they may literally be looking at winning "a couple".

The rights and wrongs of calling the election can be discussed for a tidy while: the actual brass tacks of Labour going through those 30 seats on the way to winning is far more black and white.

 

[Bromley boy]

Sensible move by May.

If it becomes a rerun of the brexit debate, Labour are finished because no one is sure what their policy is and they therefore appeal to neither side. Interesting to see if the Lib Dems pick up staunch remain voters (Tory or Labour) who presumably wouldn't vote Labour any longer given how they've conducted themselves following the referendum.

If it becomes a vote about everything else Labour are even more b*ggered because they have no clear policy on anything else, either. They're even disagreeing on Corbyn's response to May's announcement this morning.

 

[gg1]

I foresee big gains for the Lib Dems.

Considering their starting point it would a disaster for Farron if they didn't make big gains. Even winning twice as many seats this election as in 2015 would still represent the Lib Dem/Liberal SDP Alliance/Liberal Party's 2nd worse general election performance since 1979.

 

[Bromley boy]

So Wikipedia says that you had your last general election on May 7, 2015. A bit short to have a new election. Lets hear Donald Trump say that it is a good thing.

True,

But, as you're probably aware, the Tories narrowly won the last election with a different party leader who promised the brexit referendum in his manifesto (never believing leave would win) as a sop to eurosceptics in the Tory party and also to steal UKIP's thunder.

We all know what happened next!

May is currently vulnerable to claims she has no personal mandate to be PM as she was not Tory leader at the time of the last election. Another general election, assuming she wins convincingly, would put that argument to bed once and for all.

 

[northwichcat]

So apparently May wasn't even thinking of a General Election but then spent the Easter Weekend in Wales and it changed her mind. What did the Welsh do to her?

 

[PR1Berske]

Considering their starting point it would a disaster for Farron if they didn't make big gains. Even winning twice as many seats this election as in 2015 would still represent the Lib Dem/Liberal SDP Alliance/Liberal Party's 2nd worse general election performance since 1979.

Top 30 LibDem targets, and from whom
1. Cambridge (Lab)
2. Eastbourne (Con)
3. Lewes (Con)
4. Thornbury and Yate (Con)
5. Twickenham (Con)
6. East Dunbartonshire (SNP)
7. Kingston and Surbiton (Con)
8. St Ives (Con)
9. Edinburgh West (SNP)
10. Torbay (Con)
11. Sutton and Cheam (Con)
12. Bath (Con)
13. Burnley (Lab)
14. Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Lab)
15. Yeovil (Con)
16. North East Fife (SNP)
17. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (SNP)
18. Colchester (Con)
19. Cheltenham (Con)
20. Cheadle (Con)
21. Berwick-upon-Tweed (Con)
22. Ross, Skye and Lochaber (SNP)
23. Portsmouth South (Con)
24. Brecon and Rednorshire (Con)
25. Cardiff Central (Lab)
26. North Devon (Con)
27. Wells (Con)
28. North Cornwall (Con)
29. Gordon (SNP)
30. Hazel Grove (Con)

 

[northwichcat]

They're even disagreeing on Corbyn's response to May's announcement this morning.

Well the election should put an end to the debate of whether Corbyn is electable or not.

 

[Bald Rick]

It will be fun to see how individual Labour candidates position their local campaigns. There should be a prize for the one who does the best job in dissociating themselves from Corbyn.

I can see the Labour vote share haemorrhaging, but not necessarily in their safe seats (except perhaps in a few isolated places where UKIP may do well) so they may only lose a net 30 seats or so. Lib Dems will pick up around a dozen, including a few surprises (put a fiver on them winning St Albans).

Scotland is anyone's guess - a good bet would be for the Tories to get more votes than Labour there.

End result: Tory majority of 80

 

[Morgsie]

I live in the Constituency next door to Stoke Central and I would not be surprised if it goes from Labour where the incumbent MP (Paul Farelly) voted against Article 50 yet Constituency voted out to a Tory

 

[phoenixcronin]

It will be fun to see how individual Labour candidates position their local campaigns. There should be a prize for the one who does the best job in dissociating themselves from Corbyn.

Here's one: John Woodcock put out a video saying he's standing but that "I will not countenance ever voting to make Jeremy Corbyn Britain's Prime Minister"

I don't really see how that position is tenable.

https://www.facebook.com/253928198013563/videos/1476441002428937/

 

[Bromley boy]

It will be fun to see how individual Labour candidates position their local campaigns. There should be a prize for the one who does the best job in dissociating themselves from Corbyn.

I can see the Labour vote share haemorrhaging, but not necessarily in their safe seats (except perhaps in a few isolated places where UKIP may do well) so they may only lose a net 30 seats or so

Interesting point, and one supported by an article in one of broadsheets this afternoon (I forget which, possibly the Telegraph) which made the point that Labour holds a disproportionate number of *very* safe seats. Therefore even a healthy swing towards the tories won't necessarily translate into Labour losing as many seats as some are predicting.

Of the 20 safest seats in the U.K., 17 are held by Labour, was one figure given.

 

[krus_aragon]

So apparently May wasn't even thinking of a General Election but then spent the Easter Weekend in Wales and it changed her mind. What did the Welsh do to her?

The only significant political event in Wales has been Mark Reckless' leaving the UKIP group in the Assembly in order to join the Conservatives, and give them the "one extra" needed to become the official opposition. (This is the same Mark Reckless that left the Conservatives to join UKIP, burning bridges as he went.) The Tories in London were up in arms about him becoming a member of the Conservative group in the assembly while not a member of the Conservative Party. But I doubt that could have pushed her (May) to the edge!

 

[RichmondCommu]

It says much about the state of the current Labour Party that a) they have to win in places like Derby and Bolton, and b) they may literally be looking at winning "a couple".

The rights and wrongs of calling the election can be discussed for a tidy while: the actual brass tacks of Labour going through those 30 seats on the way to winning is far more black and white.

Many people living in Derby North are not natural Labour voters.

 

[northwichcat]

Lib Dems will pick up around a dozen, including a few surprises (put a fiver on them winning St Albans).

I'd like to see them have a surprise win in Tatton. While Osborne got a huge majority in 2015, he's really annoyed a lot of people by taking on the London Evening Standard job when he said that not being Chancellor anymore would allow him to dedicate more time to his constituents. Labour won't be able to find anyone suitable to stand locally so they'll bring in an outsider while the Lib Dems will have a couple of local options who could potentially be MPs.

 

[northwichcat]

The only significant political event in Wales has been Mark Reckless' leaving the UKIP group in the Assembly in order to join the Conservatives, and give them the "one extra" needed to become the official opposition. (This is the same Mark Reckless that left the Conservatives to join UKIP, burning bridges as he went.) The Tories in London were up in arms about him becoming a member of the Conservative group in the assembly while not a member of the Conservative Party. But I doubt that could have pushed her (May) to the edge!

Sounds like he's effectively an 'Independent Conservative' who's working with the Conservatives.

 

[Howardh]

I'm wondering what May's got to hide. What news is coming and is so bad about Brexit in the following months that would split her party forcing her to resign, whereas with an increased majority from June she will most probably sail through it??

 

[bramling]

It will be fun to see how individual Labour candidates position their local campaigns. There should be a prize for the one who does the best job in dissociating themselves from Corbyn.

I can see the Labour vote share haemorrhaging, but not necessarily in their safe seats (except perhaps in a few isolated places where UKIP may do well) so they may only lose a net 30 seats or so. Lib Dems will pick up around a dozen, including a few surprises (put a fiver on them winning St Albans).

Scotland is anyone's guess - a good bet would be for the Tories to get more votes than Labour there.

End result: Tory majority of 80

Yes I'd agree with that. I think that whilst the Labour vote will drop, the distortion mirror that is the electoral system will mean this will in no way translate into a proportional drop in seats.

Scotland is a big unknown. It will be interesting to see if the SNP fad continues, or if we start to see a revival elsewhere. It's worth remembering Labour has historically relied on Scotland, and the complete loss of this represents a major headache for them.

It's hard to predict in the current climate, however I suspect the final result may not actually be massively different from today. We shall have to wait and see.

 

[southern442]

Yes I'd agree with that. I think that whilst the Labour vote will drop, the distortion mirror that is the electoral system will mean this will in no way translate into a proportional drop in seats.

Scotland is a big unknown. It will be interesting to see if the SNP fad continues, or if we start to see a revival elsewhere. It's worth remembering Labour has historically relied on Scotland, and the complete loss of this represents a major headache for them.

It's hard to predict in the current climate, however I suspect the final result may not actually be massively different from today. We shall have to wait and see.

It seems a fair amount of Scots want to stay in the EU but don't necessarily want another independence referendum, so the Lib Dems may make a few gains.

It will be interesting but I think we seem to all agree that 'alt-right' (far right) populists (UKIP etc) seem to be all but gone at the moment so that's not a bad start.

 

[Bromley boy]

Scotland is a big unknown. It will be interesting to see if the SNP fad continues, or if we start to see a revival elsewhere. It's worth remembering Labour has historically relied on Scotland, and the complete loss of this represents a major headache for them.

It's hard to see where Scottish voters can go, though. Most are pro-remain and Labour simply don't have a consistent policy on that, Corbyn himself was obviously pro-leave.

Nicola Sturgeon is probably overplaying her hand with the endless calls for another Scottish independence referendum, but what alternative to the SNP do they really have?

 

[KN1]

Sturgeon saying May is putting party politics before the country is surely the most pot-kettle-black statement in recent history.

 

[Howardh]

Nice thoughts...

 

[EM2]

Sturgeon saying May is putting party politics before the country is surely the most pot-kettle-black statement in recent history.

So it's OK for May to say that that's what Sturgeon did with her application for Indy Ref 2, but not OK for Sturgeon to say that's what May is doing in calling for a General Election?

 

[EM2]

I'm wondering what May's got to hide. What news is coming and is so bad about Brexit in the following months that would split her party forcing her to resign, whereas with an increased majority from June she will most probably sail through it??

The bad news might not be Brexit. For example, it could be the CPS possibly considering charging a number of individuals with offences relating to election expenses?

 

[VauxhallandI]

Feel sick, when will this hell end.

May will now be able to push through all sorts of things without any opposition, in the name of "democracy"