Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Gareth Marston]

I fear this is what we will see.

769s and 25kV electrification (over time) make absolutely perfect sense. Then once it's all wired in say 10 years time, a nice fleet of new EMUs to use said wires.

Fit them with Grammers (or if penny pinching ironing boards with the improved base) at a good pitch based around 6 rows in a full length centre section (the ex Thameslink 319s are like that and are quite spacious), plenty of tables, a nice colour scheme, and I can't see anyone disliking them.

I don't after all recall the last time I heard anyone whining about Merseyrail 50x[1], and those are even older. People in London probably dislike PEP EMUs with the original seats, but the Merseyrail ones are transformed. I bet most people don't even know they are 38ish years old now, as the design of the exterior is relatively timeless.

[1] The window view is a bit rubbish, I suppose, but commuters generally don't care about that.

In practice they will be a marvel in the valleys however the Minister wants a shiny new toy to announce......

 

[Bwlch y Groes]

Were on the same page with this. However I fear Welsh Labour want a shiny new whizz bang announcement.

It's all about political capital, isn't it? Ken Skates will be looking at the franchise bid and the South Wales Metro as his opportunity to make a name for himself and position himself as the potential next leader of Welsh Labour. In that sense, it doesn't matter hugely to him if it's a failure long-term. All he needs is for it to look good to strengthen his and the party's popularity up to the next election

The thing is, as you said previously Gareth, it's not just politicians who want something brand new - they're just interpreting the expectations of the voters. South Wales has been neglected, there's absolutely no doubt, and people feel it. We were hit hard by Beeching and the reopenings of the last 30 years have only slightly repaired the damage. Other opportunities to reopen more lines and stations have been missed - my line back home, the Maerdy branch, could easily have been reopened up until 25 years ago, as could the line to Oakdale to serve Blackwood, and they've stalled on reopening to Hirwaun, Abertillery, Beddau and Bedlinog. And of course that's just talking about railways - bus provision has been absolutely slashed, and the rail link buses are gone too

That said, clearly the idea that we should have brand new trains above all else is foolish. While I was frustrated when the initial suggestion of 313s was made, the 323s would be ideal - the sort of trains that with a lick of paint you could pass off as new without the vast majority of customers realising. That's a fleet of 43 3-car trains for the Valleys network - compared to 66 2-car trains and 8 153s now (some of which aren't used on the Valley Lines anyway) you're pretty much at what you'd need

The problem comes with the infrastructure - I think it's inevitable that the Assembly will want some form of wires put up, but someone's got to pay for that. I suspect they'll want to do it as cheaply as possible, and they seem to be won over by the idea that tram extensions and extra stations are cheaper than adding heavy rail extensions and stations. But that's not doing it properly

Anything short of heavy rail electrification is going to be frustrating, but I think Skates and co will think they can con people into thinking something like a tram-train will be an upgrade because it'd be brand new, when it clearly isn't. There's huge political capital in both building something brand new and doing it on a reasonable budget, and that's ultimately what politicians are primarily interested in - not whether or not it'll actually work

 

[AlexNL]

Or get a derogation on the PRM mods, keep the Pacers and face the wrath of the disabled lobby.

Making some people angry because of overdue PRM mods is the best choice when the alternative is not having any trains running at all.

 

[northwichcat]

Making some people angry because of overdue PRM mods is the best choice when the alternative is not having any trains running at all.

Making people angry because the December 2019 deadline has been known about for 25 years. There would have been enough time to order enough new trains to replace all the Pacers and Sprinters if needed.

 

[Kite159]

In practice they will be a marvel in the valleys however the Minister wants a shiny new toy to announce......

Assuming once they begin proper testing under real world conditions they don't turn out to be piles of rubbish, with acceleration on diesel power which will make a 153 seem like a rocket off the line.

Otherwise it will be a case of "here you go South Wales, have these off-cast EMUs fitted with diesel engines, and oh by the way your journey times will increase due to their inability to gain speed"

 

[Clip]

And that is the passenger's problem because?

It isnt but you made a bold statement that they dont repair their trains properly. Thats what they took umbridge at

 

[Chester1]

Assuming once they begin proper testing under real world conditions they don't turn out to be piles of rubbish, with acceleration on diesel power which will make a 153 seem like a rocket off the line.

Otherwise it will be a case of "here you go South Wales, have these off-cast EMUs fitted with diesel engines, and oh by the way your journey times will increase due to their inability to gain speed"

There has been no indication that they will be slow. There is plenty of space under the trailer coaches and they are designed to be used on services currently run by sprinters. They should be able to match a 150s speed. The biggest issue with them is cost and bringing down the eye watering price of the intial units.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's all about political capital, isn't it? Ken Skates will be looking at the franchise bid and the South Wales Metro as his opportunity to make a name for himself and position himself as the potential next leader of Welsh Labour. In that sense, it doesn't matter hugely to him if it's a failure long-term. All he needs is for it to look good to strengthen his and the party's popularity up to the next election

The thing is, as you said previously Gareth, it's not just politicians who want something brand new - they're just interpreting the expectations of the voters. South Wales has been neglected, there's absolutely no doubt, and people feel it. We were hit hard by Beeching and the reopenings of the last 30 years have only slightly repaired the damage. Other opportunities to reopen more lines and stations have been missed - my line back home, the Maerdy branch, could easily have been reopened up until 25 years ago, as could the line to Oakdale to serve Blackwood, and they've stalled on reopening to Hirwaun, Abertillery, Beddau and Bedlinog. And of course that's just talking about railways - bus provision has been absolutely slashed, and the rail link buses are gone too

That said, clearly the idea that we should have brand new trains above all else is foolish. While I was frustrated when the initial suggestion of 313s was made, the 323s would be ideal - the sort of trains that with a lick of paint you could pass off as new without the vast majority of customers realising. That's a fleet of 43 3-car trains for the Valleys network - compared to 66 2-car trains and 8 153s now (some of which aren't used on the Valley Lines anyway) you're pretty much at what you'd need

The problem comes with the infrastructure - I think it's inevitable that the Assembly will want some form of wires put up, but someone's got to pay for that. I suspect they'll want to do it as cheaply as possible, and they seem to be won over by the idea that tram extensions and extra stations are cheaper than adding heavy rail extensions and stations. But that's not doing it properly

Anything short of heavy rail electrification is going to be frustrating, but I think Skates and co will think they can con people into thinking something like a tram-train will be an upgrade because it'd be brand new, when it clearly isn't. There's huge political capital in both building something brand new and doing it on a reasonable budget, and that's ultimately what politicians are primarily interested in - not whether or not it'll actually work

There's a lot of gross naivety amongst the general public even amounting to believing that another operator will turn up with extra carriages on Day one after Arriva go. However the reality is probably about 50-60 extra carriages in the size of the franchise fleet will probably knock on the head the majority of peoples concerns, providing there not 142/143/144/150/153 types.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's a lot of gross naivety amongst the general public even amounting to believing that another operator will turn up with extra carriages on Day one after Arriva go. However the reality is probably about 50-60 extra carriages in the size of the franchise fleet will probably knock on the head the majority of peoples concerns, providing there not 142/143/144/150/153 types.

That and a proper refurb for the 175s, they really are in quite a state.

 

[Gareth Marston]

That and a proper refurb for the 175s, they really are in quite a state.

My chances to ride them in the last 19 months have been limited so cant really comment on condition however they are the sort of unit that seem to be the ones culled in the brave new world of quality franchise bids its no coincidence that the glut of off lease DMU's are all post privatisation types- TPE 185's (22 x3), GA 170's and LM 170's. (84 carriages mainly 2 car some 3).

Wales and Borders has one route that equates to the 7 Scottish City's/TPE or even Northern Connect. That's Swansea-Neath-Port Talbot-Brigend-Cardiff-Newport-Cwmbran-Hereford-Shrewsbury-Crewe-Wilmslow-Stockport-Manchester and that needs something better on it than a 170/175.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they weren't in a poor condition and suffering from poor build quality and small luggage racks, they are up to any InterCity journey, having a low density InterCity layout with decent seats.

TBH I don't see why something like a 4-car 170 with a low density (window aligned) layout would not be suitable for that either. They are decent units.

 

[northwichcat]

If they weren't in a poor condition and suffering from poor build quality and small luggage racks, they are up to any InterCity journey, having a low density InterCity layout with decent seats.

Apart from the length of train is a bit short for most InterCity services. While you can double them up that does create a problem if you provide a trolley service as either the trolley has to keep switching sets or you need 2 x trolleys when getting TOCs to pay for one is hard enough.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Apart from the length of train is a bit short for most InterCity services. While you can double them up that does create a problem if you provide a trolley service as either the trolley has to keep switching sets or you need 2 x trolleys when getting TOCs to pay for one is hard enough.

True, that. If only they had been built with gangways. FWIW, I reckon 4x23m is about right for most Welsh long distance services including the North Wales Coast.

 

[AlexNL]

Making people angry because the December 2019 deadline has been known about for 25 years. There would have been enough time to order enough new trains to replace all the Pacers and Sprinters if needed.

Agreed, and people have all right to be angry about that. The Welsh Government and/or the DfT should've acted on that sooner instead of dragging the issue along.

Sadly, that's water under the bridge. Now the choice is between making some people angry, or making a lot of people angry.

 

[Kite159]

There has been no indication that they will be slow. There is plenty of space under the trailer coaches and they are designed to be used on services currently run by sprinters. They should be able to match a 150s speed. The biggest issue with them is cost and bringing down the eye watering price of the intial units.

I will eat my words when the first one actually does real world testing and proves to be a worthwhile Sprinter replacement

 

[Llanigraham]

That and a proper refurb for the 175s, they really are in quite a state.

Are they?
The ones I have traveled on have been fine.
How often do you travel on them?

 

[Envoy]

Perhaps the Class 180 Adelante trains would be those most suitable for the Swansea to Manchester services? Would it be possible to remove 1 of the coaches from these 5 coach sets and add it to the the 2 coach 175’s (to which they are related)?

I really fail to understand as to why the new Hitachi Class 800 trains for the East Coast Mainline are going to replace the Virgin electric train fleet prior to replacing diesels on this route? Surely, Hull Trains & Grand Central should get Class 800 bi-modes first as that would negate the need for them to have the 180’s - which could then go to Wales & Borders who are desperate for some decent newish diesel trains.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well hardly surprising we've even got card carrying Labour party members criticizing in public the secret squirrel process now....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-41835252

Passengers 'missing out' on chance to voice rail views
But industry expert Prof Stuart Cole told BBC Wales: "I don't understand why the Welsh Government hasn't published its tender documents."
The University of South Wales transport professor added: "The English Department for Transport publish their bidding documents so the public, politicians, passengers, pressure groups and commentators can comment on the proposals.

"The passengers are the people that really count and I would have thought it would have been quite useful for the Welsh Government and Transport for Wales to hear their input."

 

[Gareth Marston]

Perhaps the Class 180 Adelante trains would be those most suitable for the Swansea to Manchester services? Would it be possible to remove 1 of the coaches from these 5 coach sets and add it to the the 2 coach 175’s (to which they are related)?

I really fail to understand as to why the new Hitachi Class 800 trains for the East Coast Mainline are going to replace the Virgin electric train fleet prior to replacing diesels on this route? Surely, Hull Trains & Grand Central should get Class 800 bi-modes first as that would negate the need for them to have the 180’s - which could then go to Wales & Borders who are desperate for some decent newish diesel trains.

because franchise bids live in silos divorced from any wider national plan

 

[Chester1]

because franchise bids live in silos divorced from any wider national plan

And Grand Central and Hull Trains are open access opperators. Grand Central have probably obtained the 180s with a cheap lease after considering buying 800s. Hull Trains have a very small order and construction of their trains is minor for Hitachi compared with GWR and VTEC orders.

180s would be wasted on W&B anyway and should be used on services that do reach 125mph occasionally.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I really fail to understand as to why the new Hitachi Class 800 trains for the East Coast Mainline are going to replace the Virgin electric train fleet prior to replacing diesels on this route? Surely, Hull Trains & Grand Central should get Class 800 bi-modes first as that would negate the need for them to have the 180’s - which could then go to Wales & Borders who are desperate for some decent newish diesel trains.

VTEC's bi-mode 800s will replace their HSTs first.
The second (electric) tranche will replace most of the 225s.
There isn't a fat controller to donate new trains to deserving operators, it's down to the market and business case.
HT (First) will get First Group 802s at the end of the current build, and GC (Arriva) has no plans for bi-modes.

The WG/W&B bidders first have to weigh up if they want to keep the 175 fleet, before considering 180s.
For all we know, a fleet of new DMUs might be on the cards (owned by WG, not the TOC/ROSCO).
Without being able to see the ITT there's no way of knowing.

 

[whhistle]

Surely, Hull Trains & Grand Central should get Class 800 bi-modes first as that would negate the need for them to have the 180’s - which could then go to Wales & Borders who are desperate for some decent newish diesel trains.

Or why not:

Dump more HSTs on Cross Country. Voyagers then go to TPE to release the 185's to go to Wales. All this, while more 170's come down from Scotland (replaced by their HSTs) to go to Northern. Northern should also receive the Class 357's when they're replaced to finally get rid of the 319's.

So much pie in the sky...

 

[northwichcat]

Or why not:

Dump more HSTs on Cross Country. Voyagers then go to TPE to release the 185's to go to Wales. All this, while more 170's come down from Scotland (replaced by their HSTs) to go to Northern. Northern should also receive the Class 357's when they're replaced to finally get rid of the 319's.

So much pie in the sky...

Because TPE are extensively refurbishing 29 of their 185s and supplementing those with brand new 5 car trains, with the other 22 x 185s starting to be released in 2020. If the Wales & Borders franchise wants a fleet of up to 22 x 185s from 2020 they only have to approach Eversholt Rail.

Scotrail are releasing 10 x 156s, 8 x 158s and 16 x 170s. Out of those Northern have already secured 5 x 156s, 8 x 158s and 16 x 170s. Northern still also have to find 18 x 170s or equivalent to take on post-2019 - those could include 170s being released by Anglia and LM.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Because TPE are extensively refurbishing 29 of their 185s and supplementing those with brand new 5 car trains, with the other 22 x 185s starting to be released in 2020. If the Wales & Borders franchise wants a fleet of up to 22 x 185s from 2020 they only have to approach Eversholt Rail.

Scotrail are releasing 10 x 156s, 8 x 158s and 16 x 170s. Out of those Northern have already secured 5 x 156s, 8 x 158s and 16 x 170s. Northern still also have to find 18 x 170s or equivalent to take on post-2019 - those could include 170s being released by Anglia and LM.

However if the successful bidder for EMT bags any of these the W&B Bidder will have their plans scuppered.

 

[northwichcat]

However if the successful bidder for EMT bags any of these the W&B Bidder will have their plans scuppered.

The EMT franchise has been put back so if the WG sort themselves out the EMT bids won't have even been submitted when the new W&B franchise starts.

 

[gareth950]

Well hardly surprising we've even got card carrying Labour party members criticizing in public the secret squirrel process now....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-41835252

I'm a card carrying member of the party as well, but I'm appalled with how they have been handling the whole thing since the light rail Metro proposals were first floated in 2013-14.
I'm actually appalled with many aspects of and decisions taken by the leadership of the Welsh Govt from infrastructure to the dumping of radioactive mud off the Cardiff Bay coast.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The EMT franchise has been put back so if the WG sort themselves out the EMT bids won't have even been submitted when the new W&B franchise starts.

Its all rather wishy washy slipping franchise timescales finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing etc etc This is possibly a part explanation as to why were not seeing much cascading going on and ending up with new build and off lease franchise agreements.

 

[berneyarms]

Well hardly surprising we've even got card carrying Labour party members criticizing in public the secret squirrel process now....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-41835252

It’s exceptionally undemocratic for passengers, the people who use the service not to be allowed afford an opinion on what the service plans are.

It’s nothing short of a disgrace.

 

[gareth950]

It’s exceptionally undemocratic for passengers, the people who use the service not to be allowed afford an opinion on what the service plans are.

It’s nothing short of a disgrace.

The excuses for not releasing it are even more of a disgrace and are beyond pathetic. Not to worry though, cos the ITT is going to be released - once the contract has been awarded and the deal is signed and sealed!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It’s exceptionally undemocratic for passengers, the people who use the service not to be allowed afford an opinion on what the service plans are.
It’s nothing short of a disgrace.

WG has conducted not one but two consultations on the next franchise.
The trouble is, neither gave any sort of detail on routes or service levels, beyond "similar to now".
So they know people's opinions on comfort levels, fares, ticketing, station facilities, through services etc.
Just nothing on what really matters, which is the timetable!