Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

[Domh245]

Well this is interesting:

A hanful of D trains will be appearing, a few 170s, and the MK4s.
Plenty of new build, and 150s soldiering on until 2023, with 158s and 175s going by end of 2022. Additional 153s being sourced ASAP as well.

A slightly clearer copy of this chart has emerged here

 

[jw]

Delivering the North East Wales Metro by increasing frequency on the Wrexham-Bidston line to 2 trains per hour (tph) from December 2021, with fully refurbished metro trains.

I would imagine this is where the D Trains are heading...

http://tfw.gov.wales/whats-happening-north-wales

 

[CardiffKid]

Biggest headline is the total fleet replacement, 95% of which are new trains with CAF getting half the order .

No open bidding or procurement then?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting that they're planning to replace all stock. Is that all Valleys or all total? The 175s are decent units and it'd be shame to see them go. Unsure where they'd end up.

They have decent interiors but are mechanically very poor. That said, I could see Northern taking them for further expansion of Northern Connect, as they are, provided they can be kept reliable, well suited to that kind of service (having operated it before). This could perhaps allow Northern to consider scrapping all 150s and maybe even some 156s as they are getting a bit old.

 

[PR1Berske]

Perhaps the most trivial observation yet: I don't like the letter "d" on the headline font.

 

[Domh245]

So guesstimating the numbers from that chart, and based on the fact that 50% of the new trains will be built in Wales, I suspect that CAF have got the Metro Vehicles and the Tri-modes. Stadler would appear to have the South Wales DMU based on the image that appeared of one of their products with Metro branding, leaving the Long Distance DMU as potentially Stadler as well, or some other supplier.

I can't quite get it to add up to bang on 50:50 CAF/Non CAF in terms of vehicles, and if it is done by units instead, a single tram counting as a vehicle would inflate the metro stock vastly, leaving them just with that maybe. For interest, I've tried interpolating the chart to get rough numbers of vehicles:

Metro: 106
Tri-Mode: 118
South Wales DMU: 44
Long Distance and rural DMU: 173
Cascaded stock: 50

I can't get the 95% new build figure to appear, so pinches of salt needed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I missed the 230s! I guess they are the answer to the PRM issue - they appear to be due for introduction by the end of 2019.

Sneaky sneaky there Mr Shooter

Mk4s are slightly disappointing - I thought there might be CAF Mk5s or Stadler sets for this. Also interesting that 2-car units are to be ordered - why?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Perhaps the most trivial observation yet: I don't like the letter "d" on the headline font.

It is a bit odd, isn't it?

 

[Chester1]

Interesting that they're planning to replace all stock. Is that all Valleys or all total? The 175s are decent units and it'd be shame to see them go. Unsure where they'd end up.

Northern have a requirement to introduce 18 x 2 coach trains equivalent to 170s during 2022. There are 11 x 2 coach sets and with a refurb including plugs they would meet the specification and mean Northern would only need to obtain 7 units from elsewhere. Not sure where the 3 coach sets will go but we still have a DMU shortage.

 

[TheDavibob]

I can't get the 95% new build figure to appear, so pinches of salt needed.

The blatant use of the word "journey" in the 95% figure seems to work with your numbers (which are ~10% cascaded stock, with new stock focused on short-journey areas).

 

[CardiffKid]

... all Pacers gone by Dec 2019

No word on how though.

That's just 1 year and 7 months away.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would imagine this is where the D Trains are heading...

http://tfw.gov.wales/whats-happening-north-wales

Good point...Blaenau would also be a good place for them. Perhaps a North Wales Branches subfleet.

I wonder will any case be attempted for retaining the third rail on them and running them onto Merseyrail?

 

[jcc]

So guesstimating the numbers from that chart, and based on the fact that 50% of the new trains will be built in Wales, I suspect that CAF have got the Metro Vehicles and the Tri-modes. Stadler would appear to have the South Wales DMU based on the image that appeared of one of their products with Metro branding, leaving the Long Distance DMU as potentially Stadler as well, or some other supplier.

The rolling stock used for the South Wales Metro will be a combination of Metro Vehicles and tri-mode trains, all of which will be equipped for level boarding.
...
Whilst the specific tri-mode solution has been developed to meet the unique requirements for operation on the South Wales Metro, the train is based on an established product platform and uses a modular design from a well-established manufacturer of rolling stock and with a track record of supplying reliable rolling stock elsewhere in Europe.

From the above quote could go either way, but modular design and level boarding points more towards FLIRTS for the trimodes. The speech he's presumably going to read out later can be found here.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No word on how though.

That's just 1 year and 7 months away.

The little graph shows how - 230s (I'd imagine Shooter's lot will get started on those pretty soon if not already), 170s and additional 153s (possibly from WMT?)

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd suggest trimodes would be FLIRTs as well - the one pictured appears to be at least a bi-mode, having a pantograph and a generator "car". There's little point having a pure-DEMU FLIRT (mechanical transmissions are not offered) - it must cost next to nothing to add a transformer and pantograph to add flexibility for later use.

Level boarding also says Stadler - nobody else seems to offer a low floor DMU or EMU in UK loading gauge - everything else on the market seems to have the floor about 8" above typical UK platform level. (It's a real pity, D-trains aside, that they couldn't have gone for an all low-floor fleet - 100% wheelchair accessibility without pre-booking assistance could have been a massive coup for them).

I'd expect all the pure DMUs to be Class 195 or something very similar. Hopefully gangwayed if they are ordering 2-car sets.

 

[kje7812]

I'd suggest trimodes would be FLIRTs as well - the one pictured appears to be at least a bi-mode, having a pantograph and a generator "car". There's little point having a pure-DEMU FLIRT (mechanical transmissions are not offered) - it must cost next to nothing to add a transformer and pantograph to add flexibility for later use.

I'd expect all the pure DMUs to be Class 195 or something very similar. Hopefully gangwayed if they are ordering 2-car sets.

Especially for the Cambrian.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Especially for the Cambrian.

Indeed. That could well be what they are for.

 

[northwichcat]

Northern have a requirement to introduce 18 x 2 coach trains equivalent to 170s during 2022. There are 11 x 2 coach sets and with a refurb including plugs they would meet the specification and mean Northern would only need to obtain 7 units from elsewhere. Not sure where the 3 coach sets will go but we still have a DMU shortage.

Surely if that was to happen the sensible thing would be for Northern to take on all the 175s and to return/sublease some of their Sprinters/Turbostars.

However, is it actually confirmed the 175s will be released? I can see a mention of 158s being released and of 12 x mk4 carriages being taken on as well as new trains and 170s.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely if that was to happen the sensible thing would be for Northern to take on all the 175s and to return/sublease some of their Sprinters/Turbostars.

It would not surprise me in the slightest were that to happen. It's not like they weren't built for the North West Express services - it'll just be their return!

 

[47421]

Here is the annex with info on the service improvements, many not until 2022

https://gov.wales/docs/cabinetstatements/2018/180604serviceimprovementsen.pdf

​

 

[Domh245]

From the above quote could go either way, but modular design and level boarding points more towards FLIRTS for the trimodes. The speech he's presumably going to read out later can be found here.

That'll be the one then, especially when the speech goes on to say "Similar trains to the tri-modes being introduced in South Wales will be used on services in south east England from the summer of 2019. We will ensure that the ODP and rolling stock manufacturer learn from this to enable a smooth introduction of these trains into Wales." - so that's the 100% Stadler.

That does leave me wondering then what the South Wales DMU actually is for then - presumably just a like for like replacement of longer distance services around South Wales?

 

[krus_aragon]

Perhaps the most trivial observation yet: I don't like the letter "d" on the headline font.

That's the character for the sound 'dd' (as in "Caerdydd" or "this") in the IPa alphabet. I think I've come across it in some old Middle-Welsh writings, but I can't recall exactly. It's not just fancy typeface styling: there is a little bit of pedigree to it.

 

[krus_aragon]

Well this is interesting:

A hanful of D trains will be appearing, a few 170s, and the MK4s.
Plenty of new build, and 150s soldiering on until 2023, with 158s and 175s going by end of 2022. Additional 153s being sourced ASAP as well.

A slightly clearer copy of this chart has emerged here

That also shows a jump in class 158 and 175 numbers between Q1 and Q2 of 2019. As there clearly won't be any extra 175s materialising, could these increases be units returning to work after completion of PRM modifications?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Looking at the graph, I make it about 15 D-train vehicles - 5 x 3-car perhaps? All 5 would be needed to run half hourly Wrexham to Bidston as it takes 61 minutes end to end.

Or could it be 7 x 2-car, 5 on the Borderlands, 1 on the Conwy Valley and a spare?

 

[Domh245]

That also shows a jump in class 158 and 175 numbers between Q1 and Q2 of 2019. As there clearly won't be any extra 175s materialising, could these increases be units returning to work after completion of PRM modifications?

I think that bump emerges mainly because of additional 153s, and in the slightly clearer copy the bump in the 158s and 175s certainly doesn't appear to be any steeper than the 153s, although I suppose there might be additional 158s coming free? Scotrail maybe?

 

[kje7812]

I see they are opening Bow Street from March 2020.

 

[iantherev]

That'll be the one then, especially when the speech goes on to say "Similar trains to the tri-modes being introduced in South Wales will be used on services in south east England from the summer of 2019. We will ensure that the ODP and rolling stock manufacturer learn from this to enable a smooth introduction of these trains into Wales." - so that's the 100% Stadler.

That does leave me wondering then what the South Wales DMU actually is for then - presumably just a like for like replacement of longer distance services around South Wales?

Cheltenham, Cardiff - Swansea stoppers and West Wales services beyond Swansea?

 

[northwichcat]

I think that bump emerges mainly because of additional 153s, and in the slightly clearer copy the bump in the 158s and 175s certainly doesn't appear to be any steeper than the 153s, although I suppose there might be additional 158s coming free? Scotrail maybe?

Scotrail are releasing 8 x 158s and they are going to Northern. (They are actually the 158s which were supposed to go to Northern originally before Scotrail grabbed them from under their noses.)

 

[Bletchleyite]

I must admit to being a bit surprised the Mk4s will only be 3tpd, I had kind of expected a consistent hourly IC on the route.

 

[northwichcat]

The little graph shows how - 230s (I'd imagine Shooter's lot will get started on those pretty soon if not already), 170s and additional 153s (possibly from WMT?)

Plus the 769s as well. Even if that's just the 5 x 769s already promised then that should get 10 of the 30 Pacers withdrawn alone, once the PRM work is done to the Sprinters.