EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[EM2]

To answer EM2, I believe things would be better because the UK would be self determinant.

That's what you believe. I'm afraid I need proof, evidence and facts.

 

[Puffing Devil]

If you’re serious about wishing to understand the motivations of leave voters (rather than just telling us all how stupid we are), this article may assist you. In particular it discusses why the remain campaign’s relentless focuss on doom and gloom economics was ultimately unpersuasive. It’s of the best pieces I’ve read on the subject.

It’s quite lengthy, but I’ve highlighted three key paragraphs below:

https://quillette.com/2018/08/03/britains-populist-revolt/

Note: I don’t expect you to agree with the motivations outlined, but that doesn’t make them any less valid.

In the end the failure was with the remain side: they lost the battle for “hearts and minds”, and failed to persuade the public, despite having the advantage of the “status quo”, overwhelming backing of the then PM, the government and the establishment at large.

Rather than demonising and mocking leave voters, if you want someone to blame, you should look a little closer to home.

Thanks for posting the article, I've waited until I've had time to read it before posting.

It is a good summary of why Leave won over Remain and identified the key issues:

"Foremost, they wanted their nation state to have greater control over the laws that affect their daily lives and immigration to be reduced."
​

While this does encapsulate the Leave vote:

".....many voters had come to share what social psychologist Karen Stenner has referred to as a feeling of “normative threat”; that sudden or fundamental changes in the surrounding world threaten an established order...."
​

And suggests why Remain failed to convince, especially with the campaign it ran:

Remainers did not even try to win these sceptics over. Instead, they focused almost exclusively on a narrative that was rooted in rational choice—transactional and incredibly dry arguments about economic self-interest.
​

Perhaps more worrying for all of us is the observation

Between 1964 and 2015, the percentage of politicians in Westminster who had worked in manual jobs crashed from 37 to just 3 percent, while more recent research has shown how the rise of ‘careerist’ politicians, particularly in the Labour Party, lowered the amount of attention going to working-class interests.​

The article illustrates really well the gulf that exists between the two sides and the ongoing debate. Leave played to the crowd capitalising on the desire to regain control and reduce immigration. This was a pretty easy sale given the state of mind of many of the Leave voters and Stenner's analysis above. Evidence was not needed - they simply believed. The Remain side tried to convince through logic and reason - not the right approach.

This leads to the continued debate on here and other places: Leave voters went with their hearts and their beliefs. With that, there is no debate. However, and this is why the question continues to be asked, what is the benefit of that push for change? Remainers want to know how that will make it better. The question is continually asked and no convincing answers ever appear.

We understand that leavers wanted to gain control and reduce immigration. The question still remains what exactly is that and what will that get the voters and the country? Whilst we've satisfied a perceived need, did the majority leavers understand the wider implication of their vote and could they articulate it? I think not, which makes me sad for the decision and the future of the country. That's not mocking or demonising, it's the conclusion I draw from reading the article.

 

[Mag_seven]

More dire consequences of a no deal Brexit:

Britain would run out of food on this date next year if it cannot continue to easily import from the EU and elsewhere after Brexit, the National Farmers’ Union has warned.

Minette Batters, the NFU president, urged the government to put food security at the top of the political agenda after the prospect of a no-deal Brexit was talked up this week.

“The UK farming sector has the potential to be one of the most impacted sectors from a bad Brexit – a frictionless free trade deal with the EU and access to a reliable and competent workforce for farm businesses is critical to the future of the sector,” she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Keep that foot down on the accelerator guys as the car heads towards the cliff edge.

 

[Geezertronic]

Maybe the NHS doesn't need an extra £350m if the above stops the obesity crisis in its tracks...

 

[Howardh]

More dire consequences of a no deal Brexit:



https://www.theguardian.com/politic...of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Keep that foot down on the accelerator guys as the car heads towards the cliff edge.

Don't panic, our food supplies are "adequate", our government has told us!

 

[AM9]

More dire consequences of a no deal Brexit:



https://www.theguardian.com/politic...of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Keep that foot down on the accelerator guys as the car heads towards the cliff edge.

So on the basis of current indigenous food production and it's trends, we will have access to plenty of Whisky, and limited amounts of lamb & mutton, breakfast cereals, milk and cream and salmon. On the other hand grain products like bread, cakes ,pies and cakes as well as the ubiquitous chicken, will be in short supply. As for a healthy diet, fresh fruit and vegetables will be hard to come by, not only will there be a gross shortfall in home-grown produce making it impossible to supply demand, but even if the farming community did up their game sufficiently to address the need, there won't be any cheap labour from Europe to do the jobs that UK citizens think are beneath them.

 

[mmh]

More dire consequences of a no deal Brexit:



https://www.theguardian.com/politic...of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Keep that foot down on the accelerator guys as the car heads towards the cliff edge.

Britain exports more milk and cream products than it produces

Even by Grauniad standards, that's quite impressive!

 

[NSEFAN]

So on the basis of current indigenous food production and it's trends, we will have access to plenty of Whisky, and limited amounts of lamb & mutton, breakfast cereals, milk and cream and salmon. On the other hand grain products like bread, cakes ,pies and cakes as well as the ubiquitous chicken, will be in short supply. As for a healthy diet, fresh fruit and vegetables will be hard to come by, not only will there be a gross shortfall in home-grown produce making it impossible to supply demand, but even if the farming community did up their game sufficiently to address the need, there won't be any cheap labour from Europe to do the jobs that UK citizens think are beneath them.

In that case farmers will have to pay more, and the cost of food will need to go up. This may not be such a bad thing; having to pay the true cost of the food we consume might do some good for the nation's obesity problem!

 

[Bromley boy]

We understand that leavers wanted to gain control and reduce immigration. The question still remains what exactly is that and what will that get the voters and the country? Whilst we've satisfied a perceived need, did the majority leavers understand the wider implication of their vote and could they articulate it? I think not, which makes me sad for the decision and the future of the country. That's not mocking or demonising, it's the conclusion I draw from reading the article.

I’m glad you found the article informative.

I also don’t disagree with your above statement. By definition, nobody voting leave knew the full implications* (and we still don’t), since none of us know what the final deal will look like. Fundamentally we voted to withdraw from a body we oppose for ideological reasons.

As demonstrated by the article, the reason this discussion often becomes so heated is that the two sides have fundamentally irreconcilable positions: leavers voted for ideology, remainers voted for pragmatism.

Therefore remainers grilling leavers on what tangible benefits Brexit will bring, and implying they’ve been duped if there aren’t any, continue to miss the point, just as the remain campaign did in 2016. Leavers didn’t vote as they did because they believed it would necessarily make the country richer.

I’m disappointed about how negotiations are progressing and I’m sure we can all agree the government is handling them badly. Would I vote leave again tomorrow? You betcha!

Most remainers I know don’t like the EU anymore than I do, but their (perfectly valid) concerns about property prices/economic growth etc. trumped that dislike when they decided how to vote.

As for the comments on education levels etc. That’s just part and parcel of democracy. I’d hazard a guess your average Labour voter is less well educated and earns less than your average Tory voter, yet that issue never comes up in relation to general elections. It also doesn’t make their votes any less valid.

*although it’s also true that remainers didn't know the full implications of a remain victory 20-30 years hence, just look at how much the EU has changed since its inception.

 

[EM2]

Leavers didn’t vote as they did because they believed it would necessarily make the country richer.

But surely Leave voters did vote that way in the expectation that their own lifestyle would be better (in whatever way they feel it is n negatively impacted at the moment)?

 

[AlterEgo]

But surely Leave voters did vote that way in the expectation that their own lifestyle would be better (in whatever way they feel it is n negatively impacted at the moment)?

This assumes that people vote solely to improve their own lives. People might vote for reasons like a feeling that the identity of their nation state is being eroded, or the concept that their country should set all of its own laws and not be subject to a supranational body, or a worry that social liberalism had gone too far to be desirable, and so on.

Personally I don't vote often but what motivates me to do so isn't calculating how many more pounds I will have every year.

 

[Puffing Devil]

I’m glad you found the article informative.

I also don’t disagree with your above statement. By definition, nobody voting leave knew the full implications* (and we still don’t), since none of us know what the final deal will look like. Fundamentally we voted to withdraw from a body we oppose for ideological reasons.

As demonstrated by the article, the reason this discussion often becomes so heated is that the two sides have fundamentally irreconcilable positions: leavers voted for ideology, remainers voted for pragmatism.

Therefore remainers grilling leavers on what tangible benefits Brexit will bring, and implying they’ve been duped if there aren’t any, continue to miss the point, just as the remain campaign did in 2016. Leavers didn’t vote as they did because they believed it would necessarily make the country richer.

I’m disappointed about how negotiations are progressing and I’m sure we can all agree the government is handling them badly. Would I vote leave again tomorrow? You betcha!

Most remainers I know don’t like the EU anymore than I do, but their (perfectly valid) concerns about property prices/economic growth etc. trumped that dislike when they decided how to vote.

As for the comments on education levels etc. That’s just part and parcel of democracy. I’d hazard a guess your average Labour voter is less well educated and earns less than your average Tory voter, yet that issue never comes up in relation to general elections. It also doesn’t make their votes any less valid.

*although it’s also true that remainers didn't know the full implications of a remain victory 20-30 years hence, just look at how much the EU has changed since its inception.

I fear that the only winners from this whole debacle will be the uber-rich controlling the Tory party, who have enough wealth and influence to insulate themselves, and even profit from, the whole debacle.

Leavers may feel better with control, but they will be much poorer in both a fiscal and social sense.

This twitter thread makes very sorry reading: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1025630498431926272.html

 

[EM2]

This assumes that people vote solely to improve their own lives. People might vote for reasons like a feeling that the identity of their nation state is being eroded, or the concept that their country should set all of its own laws and not be subject to a supranational body, or a worry that social liberalism had gone too far to be desirable, and so on.

And for voting in favour of any (or all) of those things, they would expect it to impact beneficially on their lives, surely?
Do you honestly think that people thought 'Yeah, my life might be worse after we leave, but it will be worth it for (insert reason here)'?

Personally I don't vote often but what motivates me to do so isn't calculating how many more pounds I will have every year.

Hang on, a while ago you were telling me that you voted in your own interests!

 

[nidave]

Only Australia would be viable... on a no-cash-benefits (possibly except National Insurance-based) basis.

That's not the deal. Freedom of movement or no trade with Turkey, India and Australia.

 

[nidave]

In fact, once we're out of the EU we can limit the NHS to British nationals (or require a contribution) with relative impunity.

We can do that already. Other EU countries do. We just choose not to.

 

[AlterEgo]

And for voting in favour of any (or all) of those things, they would expect it to impact beneficially on their lives, surely?
Do you honestly think that people thought 'Yeah, my life might be worse after we leave, but it will be worth it for (insert reason here)'?

Yes but those perceived benefits may not be quantitative and may be difficult to express.

Hang on, a while ago you were telling me that you voted in your own interests!

Yes, but not usually a financial one. Most often, I don't vote at all for political parties.

I certainly didn't vote Remain in the EU referendum based on how much money I thought I'd have.

 

[Jonny]

That's not the deal. Freedom of movement or no trade with Turkey, India and Australia.

... trade on WTO terms is always available.

Most people would be OK with Australia as it is well developed and socially similar, but not India or Turkey. Especially not the latter with Erdogan in charge.

 

[EM2]

... trade on WTO terms is always available.

Those that are in charge of the WTO, who elected them? And when did we have a vote to join?

 

[Howardh]

This morning woke up to find £ five figures had been instantly wiped off my shares - Hill and Smith, down 20% due to profits dropping. They are into construction/roads/safety/barriers etc and clearly we aren't building the infrastructure thay they would service. Brexit related in that government projects are being delayed/cancelled? Or austerity? Uncertainty??? To be honest if we are having Brexit it would help my situation if they could get that infrastructure required for the lorries built, and built quickly!
And pass the bill on to the taxpayer of course!!
Nah, scrub that, let's stay in the EU even if it means my shares drop and save the taxpayer some dosh on top!

 

[Howardh]

Those that are in charge of the WTO, who elected them? And when did we have a vote to join?

Now now now, there's nothing wrong with unelected bureauracrats dictating of our affairs and us not having any say or vote as to who they are or what they do, regardless of the concequences to the country. When it suits our argument, of course.....

 

[Bromley boy]

Nah, scrub that, let's stay in the EU even if it means my shares drop and save the taxpayer some dosh on top!

Nah, scrub that, let’s not.

 

[Howardh]

Nah, let’s not.

If we did, in the end, fully remain in (without a further pubic vote) what could you do about it?? Serious point, May and her cronies will be looking at public opinion (even if they say they aren't - they do, apparently the offices are a hive of activity when any poll is released) and may well be thinking "if we abandon Brexit we might just get away with it".

Rees-Mogg, Redwood and Bone wouldn't be very ha££y, but the more they hate it the better.

 

[fowler9]

So then some people voted leave not because they wanted the best for themselves and their friends and family but because the wanted to reset the land they live on to a certain point in history and hope it never changes. Insane. Absolute madness. You can't stop time. Leaving the EU won't take this country back to the 50's or the age of the empire.

 

[Bromley boy]

If we did, in the end, fully remain in (without a further pubic vote) what could you do about it?? Serious point, May and her cronies will be looking at public opinion (even if they say they aren't - they do, apparently the offices are a hive of activity when any poll is released) and may well be thinking "if we abandon Brexit we might just get away with it".

Rees-Mogg, Redwood and Bone wouldn't be very ha££y, but the more they hate it the better.

There wouldn’t be anything I could do about it other than being furious and having no choice but to vote for UKIP (or equivalent), in future.

I suspect many other leave voters who felt similarly let down might do the same, which could well pose an existential threat to the current mainstream political parties.

 

[Howardh]

There wouldn’t be anything I could do about it other than being furious and having no choice but to vote for UKIP (or equivalent), in future.
I suspect many other leave voters who felt similarly let down might do the same, which could well pose an existential threat to the current mainstream political parties.

Putting a neutral hat on - if that were the case and UKIP got 3-4m votes + and 10 seats, and LibDems roughly the same - I'm sure there would be calls again for PR. Also with Tory and Labour splits it's got to the point where things have to change. We're not just voting for a party, we're voting for a part of the party - my Toryboy here doesn't get my vote as he's an Eurosceptic whereas if he were pro-EU he would get my vote, seeing as I'm normally a Tory voter. For all the talk about the EU being "undemocratic" we have a system in the UK where a constituency has 30,000 votes, a candidate wins with 12,000 so all the others end up being worthless. That can't be right.
We turned down AV in 2010 (?) but to me that wasn't the right system - but still better now considering politics is all over the place.
If PR brings in more coalition governments, so what? if this current Parliament lasts until 2022 then that's 10 years of coalition, we should be used to it by then.
You've "got your country back". Are you gonna do anything with it??
Note - neutral hat off, EU hat back on - we can have any system we like within the EU; Brussels doesn't dictate!!

 

[mmh]

Those that are in charge of the WTO, who elected them? And when did we have a vote to join?

Ah, you're unfortunate enough to listen to James O'Brien too then? It's a rubbish retort. He's paid to try and be clever too.

 

[EM2]

Ah, you're unfortunate enough to listen to James O'Brien too then? It's a rubbish retort. He's paid to try and be clever too.

Nope, never have.

 

[Clip]

... trade on WTO terms is always available.

Most people would be OK with Australia as it is well developed and socially similar, but not India or Turkey. Especially not the latter with Erdogan in charge.

We dont have to trade under WTO deals we can have free trade deals with whoever we choose

 

[Senex]

So then some people voted leave not because they wanted the best for themselves and their friends and family but because the wanted to reset the land they live on to a certain point in history and hope it never changes. Insane. Absolute madness. You can't stop time. Leaving the EU won't take this country back to the 50's or the age of the empire.

But we'll have reminded all those bl**** Europeans that WE WON THE WAR, won't we?

 

[fowler9]

But we'll have reminded all those bl**** Europeans that WE WON THE WAR, won't we?

Yeah, us and the other people we want to kick out of the country. Ha ha.