EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Howardh]

One question for you, if we weren't in the current EU, would you vote to join ?

Sadly I'm old enough to recall that before we joined the EEC we were members of EFTA (we ceased that the day we joined the EEC), therefore if we hadn't joined we would be now in a situation similar to Norway with free movement etc as part of EFTA/EEA.
Of course wou would have the "let's leave EFTA" brigade demanding referendums and whatever.
They'll be wanting to leave the WTO next.

 

[furnessvale]

Sadly I'm old enough to recall that before we joined the EEC we were members of EFTA (we ceased that the day we joined the EEC), therefore if we hadn't joined we would be now in a situation similar to Norway with free movement etc as part of EFTA/EEA.
Of course wou would have the "let's leave EFTA" brigade demanding referendums and whatever.
They'll be wanting to leave the WTO next.

Firstly, the Norwegian people voted NOT to join the EU so their politicians, rather like ours are doing, betrayed them by signing up to the EU in all but name.

Secondly, had we remained members of EFTA and not joined the EU (oh what a joyous thought), we would have had a major say in the direction it took, as opposed to our minor say in EU matters. Who knows, some current EU members may well have seen EFTA as a better option and joined that organisation rather than the corrupt EU.

However, that is all history and we are where we are.

 

[Howardh]

Firstly, the Norwegian people voted NOT to join the EU so their politicians, rather like ours are doing, betrayed them by signing up to the EU in all but name.
.

Care to back that up with facts? Or is it just a feeling??

 

[AlterEgo]

Care to back that up with facts? Or is it just a feeling??

A betrayal isn’t ever a fact as it’s subjective.

 

[WelshBluebird]

betrayed them by signing up to the EU in all but name

Is Norway in the EU? Nope. Thus there was no "betrayal".

as opposed to our minor say in EU matters

Correction. Our major say in EU matters. We have been lucky enough to heavily influence EU policy over the decades. Indeed many of things that people love to whinge about (including Article 50 itself!) were written / decided / suggested by Brits.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Is Norway in the EU? Nope. Thus there was no "betrayal".



Correction. Our major say in EU matters. We have been lucky enough to heavily influence EU policy over the decades. Indeed many of things that people love to whinge about (including Article 50 itself!) were written / decided / suggested by Brits.

Something most people seem to conveniently forget.

 

[Howardh]

Something most people seem to conveniently forget.

And we had almost 10% of the available seats, a touch behind France and Germany, and a tad higher than Italy.
Table of number of MEP's have from each country
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/...t-after-european-parliament-elections-in-2014

 

[northwichcat]

Correction. Our major say in EU matters. We have been lucky enough to heavily influence EU policy over the decades. Indeed many of things that people love to whinge about (including Article 50 itself!) were written / decided / suggested by Brits.

And we could have done more if certain UKIP MEPs didn't put themselves as our representative on committees and then didn't bother to turn up for meetings e.g. Farage who had an attendance rate of just 5% for the Fisheries Committee, despite the huge fuss he made about the EU and fishing.

 

[AM9]

And we could have done more if certain UKIP MEPs didn't put themselves as our representative on committees and then didn't bother to turn up for meetings e.g. Farage who had an attendance rate of just 5% for the Fisheries Committee, despite the huge fuss he made about the EU and fishing.

But somehow, they still thought that they deserved the expenses for doing the job.

 

[bnm]

Latest poll, of 20,000 eligible voters across the UK, asked the same question as the 2016 Referendum, shows a significant swing to Remain.

Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%

Factor in a typical 3% margin of error for political polling and you still have a majority for remain.

Will the governing class take any notice? Probably not. They're at the wheel of the bus and the cliff is ever closer.

 

[Howardh]

Latest poll, of 20,000 eligible voters across the UK, asked the same question as the 2016 Referendum, shows a significant swing to Remain.
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%
Factor in a typical 3% margin of error for political polling and you still have a majority for remain.
Will the governing class take any notice? Probably not. They're at the wheel of the bus and the cliff is ever closer.

Brexiters will immideately jump in with "that's only a small poll" - fair enough.
Let's have a big one, then.
Say, countrywide. And if the result's the same as last time then we can confirm we want to crash the bus. Is it red, per chance?
Meanwhile the key will be when people really do have to start paying for their beloved Brexit. Life won't be any cheaper after than it is now - so just how much are people prepared to give in cold, hard cash, in jobs, and in waiting for their goods to clear - if there's no deal?
If, say, visas for the EU become compulsory will holiday families be happy to fork out £60 (or whatever) as a result of leaving the EU and becoming a third country? I could hazard a guess...

 

[HSTEd]

If, say, visas for the EU become compulsory will holiday families be happy to fork out £60 (or whatever) as a result of leaving the EU and becoming a third country? I could hazard a guess...

They will just vote with their feet and go elsewhere.

Turkey will make a killing.

 

[LOL The Irony]

shows a significant swing to Remain.

A swing of 6% is not "significant".

 

[AlterEgo]

They will just vote with their feet and go elsewhere.

Turkey will make a killing.

Or people may holiday at home, which would be no bad thing.

(Still don't like the idea of an EU visa, though I think the likelihood is vanishingly small)

 

[Esker-pades]

A swing of 6% is not "significant".

Given how close the results were, 6% is very significant.

 

[The_Train]

A swing of 6% is not "significant".

Significant enough that if the referendum was held now we wouldn't be going through this torturous and pointlessly damaging process

 

[SWTCommuter]

Analysis by Professor John Curtice:
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/lessons-from-the-brexit-what-the-nation-really-thinks-poll/

Two headlines stand out. First, many voters are very unsure what to make of the negotiations that are taking place in Brussels. Second, as more or less every other recent poll has ascertained, the country now appears to be narrowly in favour of remaining in the EU rather than leaving, but the reasons for this switch do not simply lie in Leave voters being more likely to have switched to Remain than vice-versa.

However, relatively little of the net movement away from Leave was generated by direct switching from Leave to Remain. While 10% of those who voted Leave in 2016 said that they would now vote Remain, this movement was almost counterbalanced by the 7% of Remain voters who indicated that they would now vote Leave. The difference between these two figures generates an overall swing of 1% from Leave to Remain, too little on its own to overturn the result of the 2016 ballot.

By far the biggest single source of the swing – worth some 2% – came from the preferences expressed by those who did not vote in 2016 but who now state a voting intention. Roughly twice as many of this group (41%) say that they would vote Remain as state that they would back Leave (20%) – a finding that echoes many another poll. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the movement arises because those who voted Leave in 2016 are much more likely than Remain voters to state that they definitely would not vote again and because Leave voters are also a little more likely to say that they are undecided how they would vote a second time around. In short, the central message of the poll is that, if there were to be another referendum, much would depend on who did and who did not make it to the polls. A second referendum is still far from guaranteed to produce the pro-Remain majority for which most of those campaigning for such a vote are apparently hoping.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Given how close the results were, 6% is very significant.

Significant would be anything over 60.

 

[Mag_seven]

More "good" news as a result of Brexit:

More than 550 UK jobs are at risk after an automobile and industrial firm announced plans to close plants amid "uncertainty surrounding Brexit".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46110825

Isn't "The will of the people" wonderful!

 

[Senex]

More "good" news as a result of Brexit:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46110825
Isn't "The will of the people" wonderful!

The people are getting what they voted for. That's democracy, isn't it?

 

[The_Train]

The people are getting what they voted for. That's democracy, isn't it?

52% of the people are going to get what they deserve. The other 48% just have to suffer along with it

 

[Mag_seven]

The people are getting what they voted for.

I don't think most brexiters had a clue what they were voting for - I'm sure they definitely did not vote to be worse off!

 

[The_Train]

I don't think most brexiters had a clue what they were voting for - I'm sure they definitely did not vote to be worse off!

My mother voted leave and I asked her the following questions the other day:

• Why did you vote to leave?
• What do you know about how leaving will affect the country?

The answer to the first question was because she didn't like David Cameron. She was unable to answer the 2nd question basically informing me that she has no clue about any of it nor does she understand anything she sees in the news.

Now that's just one person but I very much doubt she is the only leaver who would answer those questions in this way.

 

[Ianno87]

Analysis by Professor John Curtice:
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/lessons-from-the-brexit-what-the-nation-really-thinks-poll/

Really interesting snap shot. You'll get a mix of:

-Leavers who still want to leave
-Remainers who still want to remain
-Leavers who now want to remain (having seen how its turning out)
-Remainers who would now vote leave (as opposed to *wanting* to leave), as a way of respecting the first referendum
-People who voted last time but can't be bothered / don't want to vote again
-People who didn't / couldn't vote last time and want to / can this time
- People who voted last time now deceased

Now, as much as a total balls up Brexit is turning out to be (for which somebody ought to be held accountable)... now increasingly convinced a second vote won't solve anything..other than essentially returning a "don't know".

Would have to be either a very (unlikely) significant swing to remain - at least 60% Remaim, Or Leave winning with at least the same it did last time, in order to be "conclusive" to the population as a whole.

 

[furnessvale]

Now that's just one person but I very much doubt she is the only leaver who would answer those questions in this way.

I can't see how that proves anything.

I sure if you ask some less clued up remainers why they voted that way you will get equally less clued up answers.

 

[Ianno87]

I can't see how that proves anything.

I sure if you ask some less clued up remainers why they voted that way you will get equally less clued up answers.

Might not have been clued up, but did know exactly what they were getting - the status quo (or a gradual evolution thereof over time).

 

[furnessvale]

Might not have been clued up, but did know exactly what they were getting - the status quo (or a gradual evolution thereof over time).

Interesting that you felt the need to add the last bit in brackets. Presumably because you too, know just what an effect project fear had on more timid voters with its "status quo" lie.

 

[Ianno87]

Interesting that you felt the need to add the last bit in brackets. Presumably because you too, know just what an effect project fear had on more timid voters with its "status quo" lie.

"Project fear" = project cold hard reality. As we're now finding out the hard way.

Plunge off the abyss with no evidence of the benefit, or play it safe with what you know? Seems like a perfectly rational choice to make.

 

[bramling]

Really interesting snap shot. You'll get a mix of:

-Leavers who still want to leave
-Remainers who still want to remain
-Leavers who now want to remain (having seen how its turning out)
-Remainers who would now vote leave (as opposed to *wanting* to leave), as a way of respecting the first referendum
-People who voted last time but can't be bothered / don't want to vote again
-People who didn't / couldn't vote last time and want to / can this time
- People who voted last time now deceased

Now, as much as a total balls up Brexit is turning out to be (for which somebody ought to be held accountable)... now increasingly convinced a second vote won't solve anything..other than essentially returning a "don't know".

Would have to be either a very (unlikely) significant swing to remain - at least 60% Remaim, Or Leave winning with at least the same it did last time, in order to be "conclusive" to the population as a whole.

We’ve already had a dress-rehearsal for a “don’t know” in the form of the last general election result.

Thinking back to the 90s, every GE has returned a message of sorts, however the 17 election was very inconclusive.
92 - getting very tired of the Conservatives but don’t quite trust Labour / Kinnock
97 - totally sick of the Conservatives time for something fresh, and want to give the Conservatives a kicking
01 - still reasonably content with New Labour and still don’t rate the Conservatives one bit
05 - fed up with New Labour now but still not keen on the Conservatives
10 - totally fed up with New Labour now, let’s give the Conservatives a go but not with a full mandate
15 - Conservatives have been okay, let’s give them a nudge further, and punish the LDs
17 - Nomansland!

I think the real issue is the country as a whole is very divided on some issues, as well as a certain amount of division being injected by the likes of the SNP. A good PM/government would have found a way to reconcile this, but May simply isn’t a good leader.

 

[Senex]

I think the real issue is the country as a whole is very divided on some issues, as well as a certain amount of division being injected by the likes of the SNP. A good PM/government would have found a way to reconcile this, but May simply isn’t a good leader.

A winner-takes-all system like ours is not set up to bring about reconciliation but operates rather to formalise polarity. And that's what they do, so that every few years wqe just swing madly from one side to the other and what was black yesterday is white today. It's a system that is utterly incapable of, and uninterested in, trying to bring the sides at least to some degree togethe after something as divisive as a referendum won by a very narrow majority. And there's no hope at all when a weak premier is concerned simply to act in the interests of her own party, with no concept at all of acting in the national interest. (And it doesn't help at all when "Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition" simply fails to do its job and oppose constructively.")