Shapps could find out the costs tomorrow.
What he means by deciding at “the end of the year” - is in other words, after the General Election, which Shapps and his pals hope to win, will be after the Press and Pundit Establishment has forgotten about it. There will, no doubt, be claims that savings have been identified here and there that would not otherwise have been identified, and then the idea of scrapping the project will be quietly binned. And there are good reasons for that.
One, the extra capacity which HS2 provides is already badly needed. The problem which HS2 addresses - getting more freight off the already overcrowded motorway network, while giving more capacity for passenger trains on the West Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and East Coast Main Line - will not go away merely because its existence is inconvenient to Tory politicians and their lobby group pals.
Two, the project is already at an advanced stage, with significant amounts of demolition already undertaken around London’s Euston station, and site clearance well under way around the site of the Old Oak Common hub in West London.
Three, regeneration of the Old Oak Common area is dependent on HS2 going ahead: developers have been brought on board on that premise. If Shapps, or anyone else, cans the project, the Government will face more than cancellation charges.
Four, the West Coast Partnership - the franchise to replace Virgin Trains - was let on the basis of HS2 going ahead to at least Phase 1 of the project. Bidders have already been invited to tender for the first trains for the high speed route. So that’s going to be more bills to pay in the case of cancellation. And we’re not done yet.
Five, how would Shapps explain cancellation to the Mayors, and indeed the people, of Birmingham, Greater Manchester and Merseyside? But he won’t have to.
This is a pre-election stunt. It’s more Tory dishonesty. And it will convince no-one.