First Group: General Discussion

[freetoview33]

The problem that the Potteries have is that they *are* some small towns - or, since I don't mean that to sound disrespectful, medium sized but they aren't one big city with one big city centre - the urban area is in roughly the same ball park as maybe Bradford/ Hull/ Nottingham/ Bristol but these all have one obvious big city centre and public transport works best when there's simple markets to serve with a critical mass of passengers.

Say you need a dozen passengers to make a service viable - you might have a housing estate which will put twenty passengers on the average bus - enough to make a service profitable even for a company with First's problems - but whilst that estate in Bradford/ Hull/ Nottingham/ Bristol will generally have those twenty passengers wanting a link direct into the city centre, the Potteries passengers maybe split between wanting two or three different locations - none of which are necessarily sufficient in demand to keep a bus service going. How do you run a service when some people want Newcastle, some Hanley and some Stoke? There's a reasonable population there but how do you serve it?

Surely Stoke is the main urban area in the Potteries though. It's almost like Manchester a City surrounded by large towns and people wanting to go everywhere!

 

[Robertj21a]

Surely Stoke is the main urban area in the Potteries though. It's almost like Manchester a City surrounded by large towns and people wanting to go everywhere!

Is it ? - Stoke was dead when I last went there. Hanley is now the main shopping centre (and home to numerous drunks and druggies - sorry, but it's true).

 

[Robertj21a]

Is it Bristol that is after Glasgow then?

Going just from memory, Cymru, Bristol and Leicester were also in the top league over recent years, with Aberdeen not far behind. Manchester and South Yorkshire were probably the worst.

 

[James101]

The problem that the Potteries have is that they *are* some small towns - or, since I don't mean that to sound disrespectful, medium sized but they aren't one big city with one big city centre - the urban area is in roughly the same ball park as maybe Bradford/ Hull/ Nottingham/ Bristol but these all have one obvious big city centre and public transport works best when there's simple markets to serve with a critical mass of passengers.

Say you need a dozen passengers to make a service viable - you might have a housing estate which will put twenty passengers on the average bus - enough to make a service profitable even for a company with First's problems - but whilst that estate in Bradford/ Hull/ Nottingham/ Bristol will generally have those twenty passengers wanting a link direct into the city centre, the Potteries passengers maybe split between wanting two or three different locations - none of which are necessarily sufficient in demand to keep a bus service going. How do you run a service when some people want Newcastle, some Hanley and some Stoke? There's a reasonable population there but how do you serve it?

Compounded by a decentralisation in the places where residents work and shop, which hasn't been reflected in the bus networks like it has in other cities.

The retrenchment of the PMT network has left the Potteries as a bus network island. What could have been interesting had things played out differently when Arriva came to town. If instead of persisting with the separate arms length Wardle operation, ghosting First town routes, it could have been more strategic to go for the full Arriva brand and concentrate on the interurban corridors to Crewe, Uttoxeter, Congelton and Stafford as well as their existing links into Shropshire & Shrewsbury. The operational costs could have been shared by depots on either end supplemented a basic network within the Potteries. A Four Counties Arriva network (Cheshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire, Derbyshire) could have been stronger than the sum of their current parts.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Surely Stoke is the main urban area in the Potteries though. It's almost like Manchester a City surrounded by large towns and people wanting to go everywhere!

Er no... Hanley is the main centre it’s barely bigger than other towns like Longton and Burslem. Stoke is quite minor in terms of being a traffic objective.

Potteries has suffered from weakening high street activity in these small towns and burgeoning traffic congestion. That’s not to say First haven’t been complicit in things.

 

[carlberry]

Surely Stoke is the main urban area in the Potteries though. It's almost like Manchester a City surrounded by large towns and people wanting to go everywhere!

The scale is somewhat off in that Manchester (and the same applies to most of the ex PTE areas) is a very large place surrounded by other places that are smaller than the main centre but would each be a large city if they were anywhere else. Stoke is just the place with the main line train station however none of the five/six towns (other numbers may be available) is actually that big and, if separated, would all be just regarded as medium sized towns and would, consequently, have fairly poor bus services in the current environment.

 

[Robertj21a]

The scale is somewhat off in that Manchester (and the same applies to most of the ex PTE areas) is a very large place surrounded by other places that are smaller than the main centre but would each be a large city if they were anywhere else. Stoke is just the place with the main line train station however none of the five/six towns (other numbers may be available) is actually that big and, if separated, would all be just regarded as medium sized towns and would, consequently, have fairly poor bus services in the current environment.

Quite. The most telling thing to me is that the area used to be home to a wide range of interesting independents. Now there's just D&G and a few odds and ends from others (e.g Scraggs). If there was much potential in the Potteries then I'm sure other operators would see a market, and set up accordingly, even if it was just a toe in the water initially.

 

[overthewater]

Apparently there might be some news soon about a divestment.

Watch this space.

It been nearly 4 weeks has this been pushed back again?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It been nearly 4 weeks has this been pushed back again?

Calm down. If FGE was in a position to say something then I’m sure he would.

 

[winston270twm]

Calm down. If FGE was in a position to say something then I’m sure he would.

Quite. FGE clearly said "might" be some news... not definitely....

 

[overthewater]

I was hoping Greyhound would be going by now. This would in turn First more space to breath.

 

[aswilliamsuk]

Quite. The most telling thing to me is that the area used to be home to a wide range of interesting independents. Now there's just D&G and a few odds and ends from others (e.g Scraggs). If there was much potential in the Potteries then I'm sure other operators would see a market, and set up accordingly, even if it was just a toe in the water initially.

The other thing with the Potteries is that, sadly, it's a depressed area economically. It's long been a backwater for general investment, and a lack of jobs and town centre footfall will screw public transport provision by a lack of demand, creating a downward spiral, as has happened.

It's far from the only example in the UK, but possibly the most extreme of the large conurbations.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The other thing with the Potteries is that, sadly, it's a depressed area economically. It's long been a backwater for general investment, and a lack of jobs and town centre footfall will screw public transport provision by a lack of demand, creating a downward spiral, as has happened.

It's far from the only example in the UK, but possibly the most extreme of the large conurbations.

This is something I’ve been banging on about for a while. If Burslem’s town centre has 33.8% of its shop units empty, it speaks volumes https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metr...-record-numbers-of-shops-closing-9149690/amp/

 

[winston270twm]

I was hoping Greyhound would be going by now. This would in turn First more space to breath.

That would only work on the proviso that they can find someone to sell it to at a decent price without too many further write-downs. Flixbus would seem to be the most obvious buyer for Greyhound, but they may choose to continue to build up network growth organically.

Nothing seems to be shifting as regards assets sales at present and also now also suggestions that the CMA is seeking comment of the WCML First/Trenitalia award, which could end up being blocked.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

This is something I’ve been banging on about for a while. If Burslem’s town centre has 33.8% of its shop units empty, it speaks volumes https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metr...-record-numbers-of-shops-closing-9149690/amp/

Buslem has been a dump with lots of vacant shops for all the 30 years I have known it! There used to be more pottery jobs in the immediate area (Royal Doulton and others) providing trade, which obviously disappeared when the jobs disappeared. On the other hand lots of new houses and flats have been built next to the town centre which ought to have replaced that trade. However it is simply too close to Tunstall and Hanley. Tunstall is thriving, just not the traditional high street (bus served) - lots of large floorspace warehouses immediately behind the high street (not bus served). All occupied the last time I looked. A similar situation to Longton which has more retail floorspace than it ever had, just not pokey-small high street units which struggle to find alternate uses.

The problem with those 'empty shops surveys' is they do not give context.

 

[DragonEast]

When I left off with other, more important, things to do we'd got the the stage that First comply with company law, which they have to and which I know (having studied it professionally), thanks. But as far as I can tell that's also true of virtually every other failed company over the last 50 years too, so I don't see that as some sort of guarantee of financial success, rather as the starting block.

So perhaps we can try and help the prospective buyers out. What would we do if they put us in charge, say, of an acquired First Essex? I choose that, not so much because it's local to me but since it has an income in excess of £50m, effectively wiped out by the operating costs and, in Shire OpCo bus terms I call that a "big" problem. Sorry to those on here for whom £50m is pocket money. May be even First share my view which could explain why the newer fleet is being transferred out, as far as I can see.

It gives the impression of being run down with a largely delapidated fleet (hardly surprising), much of it 15 years or older, so shortly requiring replacement over the next few years even on First criteria, and with timetabled frequencies of up to 10m-15m urban/suburban, and half-hourly inter-urban, so I'm not sure how much more (even with access to every bit of junk in the country) the network could take. In fairness it does seem to have the "worst" features of everywhere else with no "centre" as a focus, and just (scarce) passengers going from everywhere to everywhere else. They have of course done the obvious and trimmed (out of necessity as much as anything else) the fringes of the network - where they aren't competitive, and put the rest through endless "reliability" plans and merging routes and cutting "excess" services as efficiency measures.

Again in fairness they are good at serving "everything" including the retail parks, stations (for commuters - it's like mayhem), and new housing estates (with the support of Developers' cash). But - despite being the sort of things what we want to see elsewhere - it makes no difference; they're still bust.

Without thinking about it too much I can come up with two "quick" options (actually 3, but I'm not treating liquidation as an option -
though it might be the best of the lot, opening up redevelopment options freed of the the operational needs and pensions/redundancy obligations).

Double the fares. Though they're already amongst the highest in the region, and higher than the (limited) competition, the service is so bad that it's only used by those with no alternative, so the remaining passengers are suckers asking to be be held "hostage" (or those "freeloading" OAPs who are just suckers for punishment). It could attract a bit of competition, and lose enough (relatively) highly paid staff, so naturally shrinking the network to something manageable, in due course. With a bit of commuting there is no shortage of driving jobs in London, if Essex didn't pay so much!

Just halve the number of buses on the network by every means possible. It'd inconvenience the passengers but, after all, they have no alternative (as we've ascertained above). A bit of competition might be attracted again to pick up the slack, but hopefully not too many of the paying punters as we need their money. (They're pretty scarce outside peak commuting, anyway). After all what's the difference between a quarter hour or less and half hour service caught in congestion (or even hourly inter-urbans) - hopefully just that one bus turns up rather than two, or more, together, or a bus (regulated or not) that just waves goodbye to the waiting passengers. There'd be a surplus of staff, but it's probably better financially to pay them for staying at home rather than driving empty buses around all day. A few of them (the better ones) might even be attracted to the hoped-for competition (or London).

I recall that when I lived in a town outside Cambridge it was a constant gripe (and still is) that outside the urban area quarter hourly services become hourly. The Stagecoach response was (and still is) that "we do not have the resources". It always bemused me that Stagecoach don't, but First do. Or perhaps don't?

And give up the poorly paid local authority contract stuff, which might save the impecunious Council (and its overtaxed residents) a few bob too.

Any other bright ideas, gang? At the moment it's starting to look to me like overly debt-laden MBO's buying vastly over-priced assets. Deja vu, where have I seen that one before? As for the long suffering passengers, is it too much to hope after 20 years, for the opportunity to have a bus company that looks after itself (naturally) as well as, rather than instead of, the interests of the passengers? Who knows, it might turn out to be a successful one, too.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Buslem has been a dump with lots of vacant shops for all the 30 years I have known it! There used to be more pottery jobs in the immediate area (Royal Doulton and others) providing trade, which obviously disappeared when the jobs disappeared. On the other hand lots of new houses and flats have been built next to the town centre which ought to have replaced that trade. However it is simply too close to Tunstall and Hanley. Tunstall is thriving, just not the traditional high street (bus served) - lots of large floorspace warehouses immediately behind the high street (not bus served). All occupied the last time I looked. A similar situation to Longton which has more retail floorspace than it ever had, just not pokey-small high street units which struggle to find alternate uses.

The problem with those 'empty shops surveys' is they do not give context.

In all fairness, you are right in that those surveys do need to be viewed in the round. However, it can be viewed as an indicator of the local economy. There are the empty shops but have they been replaced and by what? In Longton, the bus station is centrally located and does serve the retail park. As with other places, the growth of out of town shopping (like Wolstanton) is car orientated and it's difficult to serve. There are other places that simple look like they're depressed, like Fenton.

In some respects, I'm not surprised by the issues that First experiences in the Potteries. Look at bus services across Staffordshire and Cheshire and it's pretty awful whether its First, Arriva or even operators like D&G/Midland Classic. It's sadly the same in many places after council cuts have been enacted. Towns like Taunton or Shrewsbury (both 70k people) have nothing after 8pm. I don't doubt there's a demand for some evening service to, for instance, Biddulph but is it enough to be anywhere near sustainable even given the impact on daytime journeys. Probably not.

As I've said before, that's not to absolve First of blame. They have mismanaged PMT - it was run as an outpost of Manchester so it didn't get the management attention it deserved nor the investment. As with other First firms, the cuts in the past to meet unrealistic margin expectations were counter productive. I know the area in passing (I used to live elsewhere in Staffs) but not intimately; you'll know better than me. The routes where you would expect growth are the 32, the 25 and the 101; the cutting of the 32 yet rebranding it, is something that seems counter intuitive.

 

[Robertj21a]

Is it Shrewsbury that still has virtually no buses on Sundays ?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Is it Shrewsbury that still has virtually no buses on Sundays ?

Yep - it's like the late 1980s! Seem to recall that Cannock might also be similarly bereft.

 

[Man of Kent]

Pret

Without thinking about it too much I can come up with two "quick" options (actually 3, but I'm not treating liquidation as an option -though it might be the best of the lot, opening up redevelopment options freed of the the operational needs and pensions/redundancy obligations).
Double the fares....
Just halve the number of buses on the network....

Pretty much the strategy during the Nicola Shaw years (2005 - 2010). And precisely what they have had to reverse in Bristol.
I don't know the Essex area well enough, though given that similar areas apparently have profitable operations, it ought to be possible to achieve it here. But only if the right people are in place - there are plenty who can schedule a service, but very few who can plan a network - and if you are not fighting with one hand tied behind your back by Head Office accountants.

 

[overthewater]

When I left off with other, more important, things to do we'd got the the stage that First comply with company law, which they have to and which I know (having studied it professionally), thanks. But as far as I can tell that's also true of virtually every other failed company over the last 50 years too, so I don't see that as some sort of guarantee of financial success, rather as the starting block.

So perhaps we can try and help the prospective buyers out. What would we do if they put us in charge, say, of an acquired First Essex? I choose that, not so much because it's local to me but since it has an income in excess of £50m, effectively wiped out by the operating costs and, in Shire OpCo bus terms I call that a "big" problem. Sorry to those on here for whom £50m is pocket money. May be even First share my view which could explain why the newer fleet is being transferred out, as far as I can see.

Let's look at Stirling, Its already been gutted to the core, the fleet is a right mix bag However it's not as bad compared to other first fleet. 56 and 62 plate E300, so give them a bit TLC and im sure there could last a few more years. Current network is poor but does have Student market, and two Hospital, two park n rides, and very big insurance company prudential, which actually put on a fleet of buses for staff. PLUS its a tourist hotspot... It's accounts are not great, and Stirling is riddled with Competition, however looking at what has been said about the City, Surly there is some opportunities to grow and expand the business? especially with Tourist and all the breweries and walks to the north east of the city. The most likley companies

* Stagecoach:
It would be a great fit, and it would be easy for them to combine it with its current operations, I could see it introduce new megeriders etc and also getting rid of some of the competition. I would also expect it would take on the Park N ride services, and maybe compete on the 38 to Falkirk. It could try out a raft of new routes and maybe get more students and tourist. I also think the whole management would be cleaned out once and for all and East scotland taken control.

* National express
This would most likley be from a Scotland wide buyout, the problem is what would it do? Would it keep the existing staff in place? would it want to spend the money while it has better projects such as Glasgow and Aberdeen? Also would it like an area that does not use vaults? You have to ask would it be left on as as you were? a year later it gets a look in and there like meh to the place?

* Go Ahead
This is the most interesting as it would be left field after all this time and outside its comfort zone, If we look at Manchester its has start doing up the fleet, with some of the buses in Stirling that would be a welcome boost but How would it deal with the zone tickets? How does it deal with Student market? Does anyone have eg with them in the student market? has them acquiring EMYS given new details?

I would suggest Mcgills but I doubt there have any spare cash now to deal with two basket case. West Coast motors are in the same boat.

 

[DragonEast]

Pret

Pretty much the strategy during the Nicola Shaw years (2005 - 2010). And precisely what they have had to reverse in Bristol.
I don't know the Essex area well enough, though given that similar areas apparently have profitable operations, it ought to be possible to achieve it here. But only if the right people are in place - there are plenty who can schedule a service, but very few who can plan a network - and if you are not fighting with one hand tied behind your back by Head Office accountants.

Assuming (a big assumption in itself) they, whoever they may be, have the management going spare; where is the money coming from? They're already spending it all on the present mess, let alone on getting out of it! I'm tired of us all saying they "should" be able to have a profitable network in Essex. We know; the hard bit is (as always with the buses) getting from "here" to "there". It isn't easy, if it were then First, or their predecessors, would have "done" it already . It doesn't look like it's for want of trying, so they tell us anyway. I rather suspect they have tried to "copy" FSW/Crymu/EC (as they did, London, before), rather too hard, perhaps; and without the resources. Result: a mess.

Bristol (and the other "successful" areas) have Mayors in the money (or the Cornwalls/Wales which are pretty well subsidised, including by the EU coincidentally!), not like the inpecunuous English Shires. They'll probably be even less "public" money going spare in the future, and the private investors aren't exactly queuing up, even for First it seems, whether you consider it bargain basement or a golden opportunity.

I suspect those commentators who draw attention to the student and tourist markets are on to something. But in both cases it's very localised (not "everywhere"); but does seem to be something that First generally have been very slow to exploit - FSW excepted perhaps, as in so much else. They really do seem stuck in the 1980s, probably like Essex and much of the Home Counties - and Taunton/Shrewsbury/Cannock!

Does give me a thought though - just whether Go-Ahead (or possibly Stagecoach, but are they that daft after learning their lesson with Stagecoach East?) have any scope to bolt Essex on to their London operations? But are they profitable enough? Or will it end up a messy local break up, as I suspect?

 

[Robertj21a]

Probably a local break up, or perhaps a drawn out death like Northampton. I can't see any London ops wanting to take on the Essex issues. Perhaps Arriva or Stephensons can pick up some useful work.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Probably a local break up, or perhaps a drawn out death like Northampton. I can't see any London ops wanting to take on the Essex issues. Perhaps Arriva or Stephensons can pick up some useful work.

I really can't see it being a Northampton. It recorded a loss last year because of the Clacton write down/exit liabilities and the ticket machine write down.

Best resurrect the tried and trusted formula with sales predicted for Essex, Eastern Counties, South West, West of England, Midland Bluebird, Aberdeen, Glasgow, Scotland East, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, York, Midlands, Berkshire, Hampshire and Dorset, Wales (* delete as appropriate)............ going to MBO, Private Equity, Stagecoach, Go Ahead, ComfortDelGro, Transdev, Rotala, RATP (*delete as appropriate)

That should cover it

 

[Robertj21a]

I really can't see it being a Northampton. It recorded a loss last year because of the Clacton write down/exit liabilities and the ticket machine write down.

Best resurrect the tried and trusted formula with sales predicted for Essex, Eastern Counties, South West, West of England, Midland Bluebird, Aberdeen, Glasgow, Scotland East, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, York, Midlands, Berkshire, Hampshire and Dorset, Wales (* delete as appropriate)............ going to MBO, Private Equity, Stagecoach, Go Ahead, ComfortDelGro, Transdev, Rotala, RATP (*delete as appropriate)

That should cover it

You forgot National Express......

 

[markymark2000]

Any other bright ideas, gang? At the moment it's starting to look to me like overly debt-laden MBO's buying vastly over-priced assets. Deja vu, where have I seen that one before? As for the long suffering passengers, is it too much to hope after 20 years, for the opportunity to have a bus company that looks after itself (naturally) as well as, rather than instead of, the interests of the passengers? Who knows, it might turn out to be a successful one, too.

It might be worth them trying to wind down as much as possible to release some of the older vehicles and then focus on a uniform fleet which then has the ability to increase the value. Less mix match and newer fleet.

How does Southampton depot do given the amount of competition there.

I think a lot of operators are still scared First will go all out and compete like they used to and they have it in their head 'dont mess with first as you wont be in business long'. This kept a fair bit of competition out but now we need operators in to take over routes, no one will go in. I think if you compete, First will just give up a bit easier now compared to what they once did, more so in areas where it isn't worth competing.

I keep seeing about the most profitable areas/depots but which are the worst performing officially or don't we know?

 

[overthewater]

Does first own any land that would be sold for other uses?

 

[Alexbus12]

Does first own any land that would be sold for other uses?

Do they still own Cherry Row in Leeds?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Do they still own Cherry Row in Leeds?

Nope - now owned by a Chinese food wholesaler

You forgot National Express......

You’re right - can’t miss them out

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It might be worth them trying to wind down as much as possible to release some of the older vehicles and then focus on a uniform fleet which then has the ability to increase the value. Less mix match and newer fleet.

How does Southampton depot do given the amount of competition there.

I think a lot of operators are still scared First will go all out and compete like they used to and they have it in their head 'dont mess with first as you wont be in business long'. This kept a fair bit of competition out but now we need operators in to take over routes, no one will go in. I think if you compete, First will just give up a bit easier now compared to what they once did, more so in areas where it isn't worth competing.

I keep seeing about the most profitable areas/depots but which are the worst performing officially or don't we know?

There’s always the annual returns for each opco but operating profit can be affected by asset write downs and other one offs. Difficult to gauge individual depots. First South Yorkshire has had a tough few years.

The “stomach for the fight” argument has been raised before with people referring to Barnstaple et al. That they’re fighting in West Lothian and Southampton shows that they will fight - they have to or it would be open season.