Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[squizzler]

From this morning's Guardian. His argument is not based on return on investment or even the social benefits to individual communities. It's a geopolitical thing.

Of course it must be remembered the economic justification for the Transcontinental lines in USA and the Transiberian in Russia were weak at the time compared to developing their existing networks in the populated East and West of these countries respectively, but these countries of course became the superpowers of the 20th Century.

Plaid Cymru calls for trans-Wales railway to boost economy

The leader of Plaid Cymru, Adam Price, has called for a trans-Wales railway to boost the country’s economy and culturally unite the north and south.

Sitting in a cramped two-carriage train trundling from Cardiff to Holyhead, Price expressed frustration that it was not possible to travel between south and north Wales by train without crossing into England.

He said improving rail routes in Wales could stop a brain drain of young people, and he suggested his country could become a test-bed for new rail technology such as hydrogen-powered trains.

 

[markindurham]

So does his anti-English jibe there make him a "little wailer"?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The leader of Plaid Cymru, Adam Price, has called for a trans-Wales railway to boost the country’s economy and culturally unite the north and south.

Sitting in a cramped two-carriage train trundling from Cardiff to Holyhead, Price expressed frustration that it was not possible to travel between south and north Wales by train without crossing into England.

Has anyone noticed how, although Alton and Aldershot are both in Hampshire, it's impossible to travel between them by train without crossing into Surrey?

Clearly we need a new railway line...

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Even with the rebuilding of Aberystwyth to Carmarthen , I am at a loss how "through" connectivity without some further rail infrastructure allows a completely "Welsh" rail journey from Bangor to Cardiff !.

In any case - a Bangor - Afon Wen - Cambrian Coast journey via Aberystwyth and Carmarthen etc etc - would be incredibly slow (but a delight) - as mentioned before.

There must be some consultants around praying for some work on "more detail" for this work package.

 

[JKF]

He mentioned this in the Climate Change leader’s debate last week which made my eyes roll (as did the Greens HS2 opposition).

I can’t see how it would ever make sense, slow and sending people from Cardiff out to the far west where there is barely anything there before heading north. Is there no better new build option from the built-up heart of the south straight up the middle? I know cost would be astronomical but maybe just part of the way before some old formation can be picked up and improved (from Corwen via Blaneau ).
*gets crayons and old Ian Allan atlas out*

 

[Meerkat]

Building a worthwhile alignment through West Wales would be very expensive and likely to face significant environmental protests.
Just spend the money on the roads and bus network

 

[6Gman]

From this morning's Guardian. His argument is not based on return on investment or even the social benefits to individual communities. It's a geopolitical thing.

It's an election thing.

 

[6Gman]

Even with the rebuilding of Aberystwyth to Carmarthen , I am at a loss how "through" connectivity without some further rail infrastructure allows a completely "Welsh" rail journey from Bangor to Cardiff !.

In any case - a Bangor - Afon Wen - Cambrian Coast journey via Aberystwyth and Carmarthen etc etc - would be incredibly slow (but a delight) - as mentioned before.

There must be some consultants around praying for some work on "more detail" for this work package.

There is a plain as a pikestaff difficulty with this idea of a North - South rail link.

The main centres of population in North Wales extend along the coast.

The main centres of population in South Wales extend ... along the coast.

There are few centres of population in Mid Wales and they are dispersed.

So how do you build a railway North - South which actually performs a useful function?

Bridgend to Colwyn Bay anyone ?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

There is a plain as a pikestaff difficulty with this idea of a North - South rail link.

The main centres of population in North Wales extend along the coast.

The main centres of population in South Wales extend ... along the coast.

There are few centres of population in Mid Wales and they are dispersed.

So how do you build a railway North - South which actually performs a useful function?

Bridgend to Colwyn Bay anyone ?

A crashingly sensible comment (as ever)

I mentioned this to a friend - bit of a German expert having worked there , and he reminded me that the DDR solved a self imposed own goal after the building of the "Anti-fascist wall" which put a section of the Bebra - Esienbach railway into the (then) West Germany by building a new railway on the DDR side of the border. Of course , within the last 30 years - the by-pass line has closed and the old main line re-instated.

There is a considerable element of enjoyment for "crayonistas" to scope out an all-Welsh railway to remove the need for the North and West link. It would need good functionalty of course with maximum access to population markets, something that might be challenged by some of the topography.

On the other hand . the matter could be laid to rest. The railway equivalent of Paxton's Tower in Carmarthenshire. (a would be MP who promised to build new bridges over the Towy should he be elected - he was not elected even after considerable entertainment etc of voters , - so he built a folly overlooking the lush green fields instead)

 

[Tobbes]

Carmathen - Aber refuses to die, presumably because enough politicians think it offers votes in the right places (Ceredigion is a LD/PC hyper marginal, just 104 votes in it in 2017; Carmarthen East and Dinefwr is a PC/Lab marginal 3,110 in 2017; Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire is marginal Tory ground with 3,908 over Labour), and this looks like you're doing something.

In such circumstances, stranger things have happened (e.g., BordersRail) - but if we're going to do Carmathen to Aber, let's at least give the train a chance of being competitive by not insisting on slavishly following the old route....

 

[HSTEd]

In all honesty, if you wanted an all wales railway route between North Wales and South Wales..... would you resurrect Carmarthen to Aberystwyth?

I can't help but feel, given the railways we have already open, there could be a more workable new alignment that would cost less and deliver better journey times.

Blaenau is only 12-13 route kilometres from the Cambrian line at Llandecwyn after all, and that might actually give people a reason to use the railway, assuming a workable alignment in the valley exists.

Or we just seize and convert the Ffestiniog railway, although I have my doubts their alignment is much use.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Carmathen - Aber refuses to die, presumably because enough politicians think it offers votes in the right places (Ceredigion is a LD/PC hyper marginal, just 104 votes in it in 2017; Carmarthen East and Dinefwr is a PC/Lab marginal 3,110 in 2017; Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire is marginal Tory ground with 3,908 over Labour), and this looks like you're doing something.

In such circumstances, stranger things have happened (e.g., BordersRail) - but if we're going to do Carmathen to Aber, let's at least give the train a chance of being competitive by not insisting on slavishly following the old route....

The political map down in my homeland is very interesting - Gower a major marginal (much of the constituency is not just the glorious peninsula but the post industrial areas of Gowerton etc - the doubling of the route and a much better station has yielded excellent new patronage) , and of course Brecon and Radnor (rail-less regrettably)

Carmarthen was of course the very first Plaid seat by tomato grower Gwynfor Evans in the mid 1960's - and we must not forget the saving of the Heart of Wales was supposedly down to the suggestion by George Thomas to Harold Wilson that the route passed through no less than 5 marginal seats. Did the trick. Saved again in 1972. As I mentioned before , the HoW is a line that could benefit from a few quick wins which would be easy to implement.

There is obvious support locally - perhaps due to the particular Welsh "hiraeth" (a love of the land ,nostalgia , and of course a deep sense of community etc) - but , if anyone is really up for it - then go for it.

 

[Bald Rick]

In such circumstances, stranger things have happened (e.g., BordersRail) - but if we're going to do Carmathen to Aber, let's at least give the train a chance of being competitive by not insisting on slavishly following the old route....

Borders was / is not ‘stranger’ than this proposal though. On a post project appraisal Borders has a BCR of something like 0.3. (It was 0.5 on a cost of £250m or so, and th eactual cost was more than half as much again...)

For Carmarthen - Aberystwyth, the feasibility report done by Motts carefully avoids stating the BCRs of the various service options. It also carefully excludes a whole raft of costs from the cost estimate. However if you do include the excluded costs, and using the benefit / cost numbers forecast, you can work out the BCR. Let’s just say there’s more than one zero in it.

 

[Tobbes]

In all honesty, if you wanted an all wales railway route between North Wales and South Wales..... would you resurrect Carmarthen to Aberystwyth?

I can't help but feel, given the railways we have already open, there could be a more workable new alignment that would cost less and deliver better journey times.

Blaenau is only 12-13 route kilometres from the Cambrian line at Llandecwyn after all, and that might actually give people a reason to use the railway, assuming a workable alignment in the valley exists.

Or we just seize and convert the Ffestiniog railway, although I have my doubts their alignment is much use.

I struggle with the autarky argument unless there's a new alignment that allows Holyhead/Bangor to Cardiff much faster than Gerald. And even if there is (which I doubt, given that the river valleys run E-W), how much traffic potential is there honestly on a NW/SE Wales axis? TGV Cymru could be spectacular, but even to suggest it is to answer the question.

As for Holyhead/Bangor/Caernarfon/Afon Wen/Aber/Camarthen/Cardiff.... ignoring the reinstatement of Bangor/Afon Wen (which seems sensible at least as far as Caernarfon), it would be a beautiful day out, but as a through route it would presumably be hopeless. Ignoring the reversals at Bangor and Aber, how long would it take? And whilst Gerald may be a subsidy hog (c£2m for how many passengers at the same time as subsidising an air route at a cost of £156/passenger), how much subsidy would a coastal Gerald require, even if all of the capital costs of the reconstruction were written off?

If there is to be a political reopening of Carmarthen-Aber, let's at least make it as useful (and speedy) as possible.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

If there is to be a political reopening of Carmarthen-Aber, let's at least make it as useful (and speedy) as possible.

Which is a splendid attitude - but the challenges would be "challenging" , dare I say it - road and reinstated rail would be about equal. The topography is not kind.

Ironically with re-signalling not that far off for West of Swansea towards Carmarthen (with the loss of some treasured mechanical boxes like Ferryside !) , there might be some line speed and certainly capacity improvements which could be gleaned - along with a really decent up-date of Carmarthen / a magnificent road / rail interchange and a seamless connection into an integrated coach to not only Aber - but to Cardigan etc , maybe Newquay which could deliver a good passenger service offer.

At this point , and before I have another glass of red wine* , I will desist from an "add on" about integrating this into a West Wales via the Swansea District line debate , - but it could really add value to the package.

(* just had the one , it is Saturday)

 

[Tobbes]

(* just had the one , it is Saturday)

It's nearly Christmas, CP, you're probably allowed another...

Which is a splendid attitude - but the challenges would be "challenging" , dare I say it - road and reinstated rail would be about equal. The topography is not kind.

Ironically with re-signalling not that far off for West of Swansea towards Carmarthen (with the loss of some treasured mechanical boxes like Ferryside !) , there might be some line speed and certainly capacity improvements which could be gleaned - along with a really decent up-date of Carmarthen / a magnificent road / rail interchange and a seamless connection into an integrated coach to not only Aber - but to Cardigan etc , maybe Newquay which could deliver a good passenger service offer.

I wonder if some crayonistaing is actually useful here: what would the best possible service look like? Cardiff - Aber via the SDL stopping only at Felindre, Carmarthen and Lampeter. If this included a tunnel from Bronwydd Arms direct to Llanpumpsaint, and localised straightening (or a pretty winding route) so much the better. What this exercise would show is what a reasonable best case would look like (and why not use 5-car 800 bimodes for timing purposes?) to determine whether any of it is worth proceeding with. I suspect that even with an electrified SDL to Carmathen, a straight tunnel to Llanpumpsaint and localised straightening of the route allowing for linespeeds in the 75-100mph range (though I doubt they'd get to 100mph north of Carmarthen frequently if at all) and all of the construction costs written off, I think we'd still struggle to demonstrate that it was materially better than the bus/train proposal CP outlines.

 

[The Ham]

Has anyone noticed how, although Alton and Aldershot are both in Hampshire, it's impossible to travel between them by train without crossing into Surrey?

Clearly we need a new railway line...

There's quite a few places in Hampshire which the quickest route between require a change of counties. There's also the fact that Hampshire is less than 1/5th the size of Wales yet has nearly 1/2 the population. As such any new cross County line would have a much better business case.

 

[Bald Rick]

At this point , and before I have another glass of red wine* ...

...(* just had the one , it is Saturday)

I’ll drop a bottle round later, Guv’.

It's nearly Christmas, CP, you're probably allowed another...

You don’t know the size of his glasses.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

It's nearly Christmas, CP, you're probably allowed another...



I wonder if some crayonistaing is actually useful here: what would the best possible service look like? Cardiff - Aber via the SDL stopping only at Felindre, Carmarthen and Lampeter. If this included a tunnel from Bronwydd Arms direct to Llanpumpsaint, and localised straightening (or a pretty winding route) so much the better. What this exercise would show is what a reasonable best case would look like (and why not use 5-car 800 bimodes for timing purposes?) to determine whether any of it is worth proceeding with. I suspect that even with an electrified SDL to Carmathen, a straight tunnel to Llanpumpsaint and localised straightening of the route allowing for linespeeds in the 75-100mph range (though I doubt they'd get to 100mph north of Carmarthen frequently if at all) and all of the construction costs written off, I think we'd still struggle to demonstrate that it was materially better than the bus/train proposal CP outlines.

A few comments before I retire to being sociable.

Good idea as a "straw man" to consider a radical new alignment , if only to put it in the filing cabinet.

A quick and dirty "crayonista" vision - then concentrate on an integrated package of "fast" trains to Carmarthen with superlative onwards coaches (electric buses perhaps - fuelled by local renewables - dare I say more dam based hydro power from the relative abundant rainfall in SW Wales , or even better the Swansea Bay barrage scheme which is sort of being re-looked at again) , a really solid review of rail in West Wales and dare I say it the Swansea area "metro" ideas. The latter cllcking into regeneration and so on - not a day goes by without horrendous M4 west of Cardiff incidents , or if not there - on the A48. There has to be a story there.

You could , of course argue , that a Llanpumpsaint tunnel might hit the genuine gold bearing rock strata around there , but even though the Romans were savvy enough to mine it , it is not going to help a business case for a 21stC railway.

Good debate, enjoyable.

 

[HSTEd]

Now, can a direct route possibly compete with line speed improvements on the existing via-England route, with the same budget assigned?

I very much doubt it.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I’ll drop a bottle round later, Guv’.



You don’t know the size of his glasses.

Modest , as in all things .....

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Now, can a direct route possibly compete with line speed improvements on the existing via-England route, with the same budget assigned?

I very much doubt it.

I agree - and some great work was done - dare I say it in BR days when the 158's were brought in on Regional Railways Wales and West - somewhere I have a copy of the paperwork from the then ACE Newport who promised (and delivered) better Sprinter differential speeds on the back of his planned renewal programme on that important Cardiff - Manchester axis. There is more , I suggest to get out of that route.

So put that idea - and I am sure more could be found on the North and West , PLUS , a West of Swansea package as mentioned above. To use a quote "Job could be a good 'un" - or in slang South Welsh "mae'r gwaith un bossible rwy'n credu"

I had a pass , in "O" level Welsh - not studied but put in for it anyway - 3 hours study and got a grade A - standards must have been low that year.

 

[Meerkat]

How much of the Cardiff to Holyhead route could you electrify and resignal for the same price as throwing money away on a West Wales route?

 

[Rhydgaled]

I can’t see how it would ever make sense, slow and sending people from Cardiff out to the far west where there is barely anything there before heading north. Is there no better new build option from the built-up heart of the south straight up the middle?

Yes and no. It might be possible to build a new line up the valley alongside the A470 from somewhere in the Merthyr area to a summit near Storey Arms. Getting an acceptable gradient between there and Brecon might not be possible, but if it was the next section alongside the A470 from Brecon to Llyswen/Boughrood would be a piece of cake in comparison. From there to Llanelwedd (near the Builth Wells showground) along the Wye valley possibly carries some flood risk, but the existance of the former Mid Wales Line shows that the landscape here isn't too challanging. The showground is a bit of an obstacle, but from there to Rhayader doesn't look like it needs much re-routing from a quick glance at the OS map. Immediately north of Rhayader is the really expensive bit, climbing through a new tunnel and across a grand new viaduct would be necessary to avoid a seriously twisty part of the old Mid Wales Line. If you can overcome that, Llanidloes to the junction with the Cambrian just outside Caersws is easy. All this is roughly shown on my Welsh railway map.

Neither that nor the route via Carmarthen makes all that much sense for north-south connectivity though. Cardiff-Merthyr-Brecon-Builth-Newtown(reverse)-Machynlleth-Porthmadog-Caernarfon-Bangor would presumably require a change at either Brecon or Merthyr from a metro train to a long distance one. I can't see anyone finding paths for a non-stop fast south of Pontypridd. Cardiff-Carmarthen-Aberystwyth-Dovey Junc.-Porthmadog-Caernarfon-Bangor requires a change at Dovey Junction. It would also mean the train from Cardiff to Aberystwyth would actually need to be Cardiff-Birmingham via Aberystywth, otherwise passengers would also have to change at Aberystwyth (with a long wait, since there is only one platform so Aberystwyth and Cararmthen trains couldn't be there at the same time).

--- in short, either route that avoids England would require a change of train.

if we're going to do Carmathen to Aber, let's at least give the train a chance of being competitive by not insisting on slavishly following the old route....

I agree completely. There are only two things I can think of that can be done with a train that cannot be done with a bus. One is toilets, the other is journey times shorter than by car. If the train would be slower than driving, then in my opinion it would be better to avoid the capital costs and put the day-to-day subsidy towards doubling (at least) the bus serivce to half-hourly (with alternative services running direct from Llanybydder to Carmarthen rather than doing the detour via Pencader).

Better to spend £1bn and get a train service that is faster than driving than spend £7??m on a railway that will acheive nothing but a drop in bus patronage.

I struggle with the autarky argument unless there's a new alignment that allows Holyhead/Bangor to Cardiff much faster than Gerald. And even if there is (which I doubt, given that the river valleys run E-W), how much traffic potential is there honestly on a NW/SE Wales axis? TGV Cymru could be spectacular, but even to suggest it is to answer the question.

As for Holyhead/Bangor/Caernarfon/Afon Wen/Aber/Camarthen/Cardiff.... ignoring the reinstatement of Bangor/Afon Wen (which seems sensible at least as far as Caernarfon), it would be a beautiful day out, but as a through route it would presumably be hopeless. Ignoring the reversals at Bangor and Aber, how long would it take? And whilst Gerald may be a subsidy hog (c£2m for how many passengers at the same time as subsidising an air route at a cost of £156/passenger), how much subsidy would a coastal Gerald require, even if all of the capital costs of the reconstruction were written off?

If there is to be a political reopening of Carmarthen-Aber, let's at least make it as useful (and speedy) as possible.

Most of these points are covered by my above responses, but the faster than driving thing applies to Bangor - Afon Wen as well. Unless the train is heading for Pwllheli, going to Afon Wen adds a considerable distance compared to heading straight for Porthmadog.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I understand all of the above, but I can see where Adam Price is coming from and it's more emotional than practical. Let me explain it. I'm not saying he's right or wrong but this is where it comes from.

We are a small little nation that has somehow survived for eight centuries after our conquest without being assimilated. We are not Hampshire. We are Wales. Unlike the Scots, we weren't major partners in the British imperial adventure. We had an extractive economy where transport links were designed to ship our wealth eastwards to benefit others with little regard to transport within our own country. Our mineral wealth was exploited and looted in just the same way as India, Australia and the rest. We deserve the chance to build our own country in our own way.

That's the way he thinks and frankly, it's closer to the historic truth than the imperial w*nk fantasy of the Brexiteers!

 

[Tobbes]

I understand all of the above, but I can see where Adam Price is coming from and it's more emotional than practical. Let me explain it. I'm not saying he's right or wrong but this is where it comes from.

We are a small little nation that has somehow survived for eight centuries after our conquest without being assimilated. We are not Hampshire. We are Wales. Unlike the Scots, we weren't major partners in the British imperial adventure. We had an extractive economy where transport links were designed to ship our wealth eastwards to benefit others with little regard to transport within our own country. Our mineral wealth was exploited and looted in just the same way as India, Australia and the rest. We deserve the chance to build our own country in our own way.

That's the way he thinks and frankly, it's closer to the historic truth than the imperial w*nk fantasy of the Brexiteers!

Understandable, but if it came to the Senedd funding this or improving the Welsh NHS, what would Plaid do? I can't for a second see them funding Carmarthen-Aber or LGV Cymru instead of the health service. The only way this gets built is if the UK government funds it directly or it funds the Senedd to do it with ring-fenced money - otherwise higher priorities (even higher transport priorities - I can't imagine Aber-Carmarthen is in the top 10 BCRs for transport projects in Wales) will get funded instead.

 

[The Ham]

Understandable, but if it came to the Senedd funding this or improving the Welsh NHS, what would Plaid do? I can't for a second see them funding Carmarthen-Aber or LGV Cymru instead of the health service. The only way this gets built is if the UK government funds it directly or it funds the Senedd to do it with ring-fenced money - otherwise higher priorities (even higher transport priorities - I can't imagine Aber-Carmarthen is in the top 10 BCRs for transport projects in Wales) will get funded instead.

Unless you're building hospitals, spending money on running the NHS or building new infrastructure can't easily be compared.

If you've got a pot of money to build a new line of £100bn and your NHS spend is £130bn using the £100bn doesn't help the NHS as much as you think.

As the budget for the NHS doesn't become £230bn, or if it does it's only for one year.

Even spread over 10 years that's only £140bn Vs £130bn.

However you either have to cut more infrastructure spending or cut the extra spending (either as a cut our not by increasing the budget as fast as you otherwise would have) or fund it from other sources. The latter is likely to be harder as the economy is likely to have grown more due to the better rail links if the infrastructure had been built.

Now clearly if there's an ongoing subsidy for the rail line that's a different matter. However is likely to be relatively small compared to NHS spending. However if you were to include government income from the extra railway staff's taxes and the boost to the economy from the line it's probably worth doing.

 

[jimm]

The political map down in my homeland is very interesting - Gower a major marginal (much of the constituency is not just the glorious peninsula but the post industrial areas of Gowerton etc - the doubling of the route and a much better station has yielded excellent new patronage) , and of course Brecon and Radnor (rail-less regrettably)

Carmarthen was of course the very first Plaid seat by tomato grower Gwynfor Evans in the mid 1960's - and we must not forget the saving of the Heart of Wales was supposedly down to the suggestion by George Thomas to Harold Wilson that the route passed through no less than 5 marginal seats. Did the trick. Saved again in 1972. As I mentioned before , the HoW is a line that could benefit from a few quick wins which would be easy to implement.

There is obvious support locally - perhaps due to the particular Welsh "hiraeth" (a love of the land ,nostalgia , and of course a deep sense of community etc) - but , if anyone is really up for it - then go for it.

I assume you were referencing the town of Brecon as being rail-less, rather than the Brecon & Radnorshire constituency, which the Heart of Wales Line runs through from Knighton to Llanwrtyd Wells, and was one of George Thomas's five marginals.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I assume you were referencing the town of Brecon as being rail-less, rather than the Brecon & Radnorshire constituency, which the Heart of Wales Line runs through from Knighton to Llanwrtyd Wells, and was one of George Thomas's five marginals.

Yes , I was referring to the town of Brecon (we had relatives there - still do - and one one early 1960's visit I managed a visit to the station , which mid-afternoon was train less - but we were treated with very great courtesy by the staff and advised to come back several hours later , which was not possible alas) - it was a brutal thing to close all 4 routes.

 

[jimm]

Yes , I was referring to the town of Brecon (we had relatives there - still do - and one one early 1960's visit I managed a visit to the station , which mid-afternoon was train less - but we were treated with very great courtesy by the staff and advised to come back several hours later , which was not possible alas) - it was a brutal thing to close all 4 routes.

I suppose the problem was that the one that might be most desirable to retain, to Merthyr, etc, was a beast of route, due to the need to climb the flanks of the Beacons and tunnel under the watershed. The going to Hereford was much easier but not really where most people were likely to be heading.

A sort of microcosmic reflection of Welsh topography, which will always be a challenge to anyone trying to put railways or roads through it and dictated the settlement patterns that, in turn, dictated where the railways and major roads were built. Even with the steady investment that has been made in improvements over many years by the Welsh Office and then the Welsh Government, and it being called a north-south trunk road, the A470 is mostly an old-fashioned two-lane A-road, that still has to pick its way through the middle of places like Rhayader.