Bridge to Ireland possible rail link and tunnel

[najaB]

And the bridge isn't really very expensive in terms of the trade between NI and GB, and given our carbon cut commitments.

The same money invested in, for example, a Severn tidal barrage would have a larger impact on CO2 across a wider swathe of the country.

 

[HSTEd]

The same money invested in, for example, a Severn tidal barrage would have a larger impact on CO2 across a wider swathe of the country.

Thanks to the magic of banking, there is no reason for it to be either or.
Also getting a Severn Barrage built is proving to be essentially impossible thanks to short-sighted environmentalist complaints.

(The intertidal wetlands that will be damaged by th ebarrage are doomed anyway)

In edition, in pushing to a zero carbon solution, we can no longer simply pursue the "most efficient" solution to reduce carbon emissions.
Because all of those will be gone.

EDIT:

If we are using Talgo AVRIL for the long distance services to belfast, that gives us variable gauge and tilting.

Which means the line from Gretna to Dumfries is probably good for rather high speed operation, which cuts the length of track from 125km to about 100km.

 

[Gareth]

Is there any forum member who thinks there's even and outside chance of this ever happening?

 

[najaB]

Is there any forum member who thinks there's even and outside chance of this ever happening?

It's less far fetched that some other schemes that have been proposed, but it's still at the low end of the probability spectrum.

 

[Clansman]

Either that or just lay a third rail between Whitehead (or wherever the Bridge lands) and Belfast to allow standard gauge trains to run through.

Bit late to this thread, but has it been proven elsewhere that you can run multiple gauge rolling stock along the same track by having more than 2 rails to allow rolling stock of various gauges to use?

 

[HSTEd]

Bit late to this thread, but has it been proven elsewhere that you can run multiple gauge rolling stock along the same track by having more than 2 rails to allow rolling stock of various gauges to use?

Yes, this is quite common in areas with multiple gauges operating in close proximity.
This track is out of use now but was actually dual guage between standard gauge and Irish gauge. (Both gauges are used extensively in parts of Australia)
It obviously makes pointwork... interesting
It ends up looking like this

 

[Speed43125]

Bit late to this thread, but has it been proven elsewhere that you can run multiple gauge rolling stock along the same track by having more than 2 rails to allow rolling stock of various gauges to use?

Yes, plenty of this in Australia, incidentally, also between Standard and Irish Gauge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_gauge_in_Australia

 

[edwin_m]

It would be difficult to get suitable stepping distances at platforms on a mixed-gauge line. But possibly through Scotland trains could run "fast" to avoid calling intermediately on the Larne line, and terminate at dedicated platforms at one of the Belfast stations.

 

[HSTEd]

It would be difficult to get suitable stepping distances at platforms on a mixed-gauge line. But possibly through Scotland trains could run "fast" to avoid calling intermediately on the Larne line, and terminate at dedicated platforms at one of the Belfast stations.

I would argue that a stopping train could run as an extension of Whitehead terminators, using gauge changers at the bridge end to convert to Irish Gauge.
The "fast" trains would run non stop to Belfast (for the reasons you note), avoiding the need for them to slow to 10mph to run through a gauge changer.

 

[Chester1]

I would argue that a stopping train could run as an extension of Whitehead terminators, using gauge changers at the bridge end to convert to Irish Gauge.
The "fast" trains would run non stop to Belfast (for the reasons you note), avoiding the need for them to slow to 10mph to run through a gauge changer.

The alternative would be reinstating Lisburn to Antrim passenger services and converting Antrim and Larne to Belfast to UK gauge. Within the scope of a mega project it would be loose change. Yorkgate would be the obvious area to build a new station to serve as the Belfast Interchange between UK and Irish gauge trains.

 

[AlbertBeale]

The alternative would be reinstating Lisburn to Antrim passenger services and converting Antrim and Larne to Belfast to UK gauge. Within the scope of a mega project it would be loose change. Yorkgate would be the obvious area to build a new station to serve as the Belfast Interchange between UK and Irish gauge trains.

I don't really see how re-connecting Lisburn to Antirm is relevant?

 

[Chester1]

I don't really see how re-connecting Lisburn to Antirm is relevant?

It would allow conversion of the current route from Belfast to Antrim to UK gauge without needing to convert all the way to Derry and Port Rush. The line has been mothballed, I don't think its legally closed. Converting all Belfast to Larne (and Antrim) would remove the need to have variable gauge trains or third rails etc.

 

[AlbertBeale]

It would allow conversion of the current route from Belfast to Antrim to UK gauge without needing to convert all the way to Derry and Port Rush. The line has been mothballed, I don't think its legally closed. Converting all Belfast to Larne (and Antrim) would remove the need to have variable gauge trains or third rails etc.

Aha - so closing Newtownabbey to Antrim services?

 

[Elwyn]

Speaking as someone who lives in Northern Ireland and travels regularly to Scotland, I wonder just who the passengers are going to be on any train service across from Scotland. Foot passengers are almost non existent on that route nowadays. You get a few people who don’t like flying and the occasional person going to Stranraer on business but otherwise everyone else flies. Glasgow and Edinburgh both have about 8 flights a day from Belfast, and that’s replicated to most major airports in GB. It takes 20 minutes to fly from Aldergrove to Glasgow. Even allowing for check in times etc etc, you are not going to persuade many people to go by train instead. It won’t be viable. I have never ever heard anyone here say: “Wouldn’t it be great if you could get a train to Glasgow or Carlisle.” There’s no demand. Freight might be a different story but there is no infrastructure in Northern Ireland for rail freight at all (the entire network is passenger only) so that would all need to be built from scratch.

 

[sprunt]

Is there any forum member who thinks there's even and outside chance of this ever happening?

I suspect the BCR is no lower than that of Johnson's cable car, so he's certainly shown he's willing to give the go-ahead to nonsensical transport infrastructure in the past. Admittedly, that was tens of millions rather than billions, but still.

 

[Chester1]

Aha - so closing Newtownabbey to Antrim services?

Would probably be better to convert it (and Larne branch) to UK gauge and share track into Belfast with the "bridge link". As part of a mega project its cost would be a rounding error. It wouldn't need any major engineering works just altering platforms and relaying track because UK gauge is smaller. This would allow intermediate journeys and having two coherent networks with two interchanges (Antrim and somewhere in Belfast City Centre or just north e.g. Yorkgate area).

 

[AlbertBeale]

Speaking as someone who lives in Northern Ireland and travels regularly to Scotland, I wonder just who the passengers are going to be on any train service across from Scotland. Foot passengers are almost non existent on that route nowadays. You get a few people who don’t like flying and the occasional person going to Stranraer on business but otherwise everyone else flies. Glasgow and Edinburgh both have about 8 flights a day from Belfast, and that’s replicated to most major airports in GB. It takes 20 minutes to fly from Aldergrove to Glasgow. Even allowing for check in times etc etc, you are not going to persuade many people to go by train instead. It won’t be viable. I have never ever heard anyone here say: “Wouldn’t it be great if you could get a train to Glasgow or Carlisle.” There’s no demand. Freight might be a different story but there is no infrastructure in Northern Ireland for rail freight at all (the entire network is passenger only) so that would all need to be built from scratch.

Though as the ecological disaster we're living through gets to be accepted as the situation by more and more people, then flights within the UK might be wound down anyway. And without the possibility of short-hop plane trips, the arguments for more rail infrastructure (and indeed for a rather slower lifestyle) get stronger.

 

[najaB]

Though as the ecological disaster we're living through gets to be accepted as the situation by more and more people, then flights within the UK might be wound down anyway.

It is much more likely that aviation will move to a low/zero carbon model than a complete shutdown of domestic aviation. That's not to say that there won't be an increased role for rail transport however.

 

[HSTEd]

Speaking as someone who lives in Northern Ireland and travels regularly to Scotland, I wonder just who the passengers are going to be on any train service across from Scotland. Foot passengers are almost non existent on that route nowadays. You get a few people who don’t like flying and the occasional person going to Stranraer on business but otherwise everyone else flies. Glasgow and Edinburgh both have about 8 flights a day from Belfast, and that’s replicated to most major airports in GB. It takes 20 minutes to fly from Aldergrove to Glasgow.
Even allowing for check in times etc etc, you are not going to persuade many people to go by train instead. It won’t be viable.

And yet skyscanner lists the travel time at 45 minutes........
If air could so easily dominate rail, there would be no train service between London and Birmingham because everyone would fly instead.
Its 30km or so along the existing NI railway to a jumping off point North of whitehead.
Current journey time is 35 minutes for diesel trains with 9 stops.

We are probably looking at about 20 for an electric fast train, which is still only 90km/h, or 56mph or so, so unlikely to require drastic realignment works to achieve with high performance rolling stock.

From here we are onto the bridge, which based on practice in China can be reasonably expected to operate at 250km/h.
About 37km crossing, which is about 9 minutes plus an acceleration margin. So call it 11.
New line from Stranraer is probably needed as the old one is a disaster, it's about 75km from Stranraer north to the railway north of Ayr in the vicinity of Prestwick Airport station.
At an average of 250km/h (reasonable with 250km/h at one end at 320km/h top speed) that takes roughly 18 more minutes.

So we are 49 minutes from Belfast and now north of Ayr.

Fast trains from Prestwick Airport normally take 41 minutes.
So without further improvements to the railway network north of this position we are looking at about 90 minutes Belfast Central to Glasgow Central.

That gives us an end to end average speed of nearly 80mph.
Not many markets where an 80mph average 90 minute journey by rail hasn't crushed the market share of air travel.

And the cost of the 180km of high speed route to reach Dumfries and Ayr are probably small compared to the cost of the crossing itself.

It is entirely possible for rail to capture the Belfast-Glasgow market.
It's also worth nothing that from Whitehead, we are potentially looking at just over an hour to Glasgow.
Which puts parts of Northern Ireland potentially in Glasgow's outer commuter belt - which is something rail can never do.

Lots of potential for new time savings though.

EDIT:

Apparently there is a train that runs nonstop from Belfast Central/Lanyon Place to Carrickfergus in only 16 minutes.
Whitehead journey time is about 26 minutes on that score.

Either way.
Significant improvements are possible.

 

[edwin_m]

Would probably be better to convert it (and Larne branch) to UK gauge and share track into Belfast with the "bridge link". As part of a mega project its cost would be a rounding error. It wouldn't need any major engineering works just altering platforms and relaying track because UK gauge is smaller. This would allow intermediate journeys and having two coherent networks with two interchanges (Antrim and somewhere in Belfast City Centre or just north e.g. Yorkgate area).

The problem there is that there are three stations serving central Belfast, and to get to the one nearest the centre (Great Victoria Street) from the Larne line it would have to go through the other two. So it's dual gauging (which as I mentioned above would cause stepping distance issues) or terminating the through service and the Larne line at somewhere fairly remote from the centre (like Yorkgate which is where it used to terminate before the harbor bridges in the 1970s).

Though as the ecological disaster we're living through gets to be accepted as the situation by more and more people, then flights within the UK might be wound down anyway. And without the possibility of short-hop plane trips, the arguments for more rail infrastructure (and indeed for a rather slower lifestyle) get stronger.

It is much more likely that aviation will move to a low/zero carbon model than a complete shutdown of domestic aviation. That's not to say that there won't be an increased role for rail transport however.

Scotland to Northern Ireland is one of the better prospects for electric aircraft.

 

[HSTEd]

Scotland to Northern Ireland is one of the better prospects for electric aircraft.

It will be a very long time before any electric aircraft approaches the performance necessary to produce journey times similar to todays times with conventional aircraft.

If they ever do.

Unfortunately a lot of these projects are people trying to rip off Venture Capital money, or attempting to delay spending any money.
"No need to actually do anything, because technological development will save us from having to spend money".

Meanwhile we all cook.

Then we will need to build a connection between GB and NI, but it will be a causeway to hold back the many metres of sea level rise.

EDIT:
Does anyone know if there is an equivalent to the National Electronic Sectional Appendix for Northern Ireland Railways?

Noone ever appears to nonstop through Carrickfergus station.
But even extending the bridge approach a few kilometres south to there cuts 7 minutes off the journey time for 9 extra kilometres of track.

Also although NI tends to be poorer than Scotland on-average.
Stranraer is rather deprived from what I can tell, so you might get some commuting from Stranraer and environs into NI to work in Belfast etc.

 

[najaB]

It will be a very long time before any electric aircraft approaches the performance necessary to produce journey times similar to todays times with conventional aircraft.

 

[Elwyn]

It will be a very long time before any electric aircraft approaches the performance necessary to produce journey times similar to todays times with conventional aircraft.

If they ever do.

Unfortunately a lot of these projects are people trying to rip off Venture Capital money, or attempting to delay spending any money.
"No need to actually do anything, because technological development will save us from having to spend money".

Meanwhile we all cook.

Then we will need to build a connection between GB and NI, but it will be a causeway to hold back the many metres of sea level rise.

EDIT:
Does anyone know if there is an equivalent to the National Electronic Sectional Appendix for Northern Ireland Railways?

Noone ever appears to nonstop through Carrickfergus station.
But even extending the bridge approach a few kilometres south to there cuts 7 minutes off the journey time for 9 extra kilometres of track.

Also although NI tends to be poorer than Scotland on-average.
Stranraer is rather deprived from what I can tell, so you might get some commuting from Stranraer and environs into NI to work in Belfast etc.

There are not normally any scheduled trains that run non-stop through Carrickfergus. There used to be, in the days of Larne to Belfast boat trains, but they have gone because the foot passengers have gone. Carrickfergus today is a major commuter town and so all trains stop there, with some terminating.


Everyone is aware of climate change and the need to reduce our carbon footprint, but it’ll be brave government that says you can’t fly any more. I agree with the view that aviation technology may change.


The flying time from Belfast to Glasgow varies depending on air traffic and wind direction but it’s only about 130 miles in a straight line, and if there’s an easterly wind which avoids the need to circle either airport, I have flown from Belfast to Glasgow in 20 minutes (take off to touchdown) with Easyjet. (It’s longer with Flybe because they use turbo props). And of course there’s the usual taxying and waiting at the end of the runway. But with hand luggage only, the overall journey time is pretty good. Yes a brand new high speed train on a brand new line could do it in a similar timing, though not if was stopping in Stranraer to pick up commuters I think. And all this expenditure for a population of 1.75 million. Mhm.

 

[najaB]

And all this expenditure for a population of 1.75 million. Mhm.

In theory at least you would be able to pick up a significant amount of ROI to UK freight traffic as well.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes a brand new high speed train on a brand new line could do it in a similar timing, though not if was stopping in Stranraer to pick up commuters I think. And all this expenditure for a population of 1.75 million. Mhm.

Why would it stop in Stranraer?
We would have buckets of track capacity, and the Stranraer stopping train would likely be a joining of the Whitehead terminating commuter trains and the existing Glasgow-Stranraer trains which would run through (alongside some Ayr terminators to make up the numbers) on the new line, since the existing line would be abandoned.

Also the expenditure is still tiny compared to the size of NI's economy.

In theory at least you would be able to pick up a significant amount of ROI to UK freight traffic as well.

The journey time, even without significant road improvements, from the vicinity of Widnes (ie. South of Liverpool) to Dublin via Stranraer would be on order of ~7h.

Its about 1h45 to Holyhead and ~3h15 crossing.

So you lose about 2h in active travel time, but that obviously assumes you arrive at exactly the optimum time to drive immediately onto the ferry.

I think a lot of hauliers would prefer the road route because it doesn't have horrible non-linear reliability stats.
Ie. there is no cliff edge where arriving late means you end up far later because you missed the ferry. You just drive through.

Obviously from further north Stranraer easily wins.

 

[DerekC]

This is a political, not an economic project. It's about stitching together the UK more tightly. The "feel" of being able to get a train from Belfast to Glasgow or Manchester or London and vice-versa is what it's aimed at. Counterbalancing the effect of Brexit on the Island of Ireland, which currently seems likely to re-unify itself sometime in the next thirty years.

 

[hexagon789]

Does anyone know if there is an equivalent to the National Electronic Sectional Appendix for Northern Ireland Railways?

The joint IÉ/NIR rulebook is available online and IÉ's permitted running speeds can be found in their Network Statement. I have yet to find an equivalent document giving permissible speeds for NIR, though other than an extension of 90mph on the Derry line relatively recently, I don't think it's changed much since the most recent list of speeds I have for NIR.

 

[najaB]

This is a political, not an economic project. It's about stitching together the UK more tightly.

More like "giving the impression that the Government wants to stitch the UK together more tightly". I really don't expect it to get much further than some feasibility studies.

 

[najaB]

The journey time, even without significant road improvements, from the vicinity of Widnes (ie. South of Liverpool) to Dublin via Stranraer would be on order of ~7h.

I thought that a WCML to bridge connection:

It's not going to make or break the scheme honestly.

And so the journey time would be significantly less, no? Since freight wouldn't mind slowing for gauge changers and can bypass Belfast city centre and head south.

 

[Starmill]

I think there's some consensus around the following three ideas, plus my take on the fourth point:

- A road / rail link either by bridge or tunnel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is technically feasible on current facts. Little disagreement from anyone here.

- An economic assessment of the benefits of linking Belfast and Dublin with Edinburgh and Glasgow is a good idea. In particular, even if the BCR for a link across the Irish Sea is poor, this will show up the value of the better links between the city pairs on continuous land. It would also be successful as part of wider ideas about economic regeneration for Northern Ireland and for integration economically both between Northern Ireland and Scotland and Ireland and Scotland.

- Such an investigation would need probably a couple of years to report, and it would need the UK Government, Government of Ireland, Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Assembly all onboard so that all respect its conclusions. None would likely be willing to pay more than a token amount of the millions of pounds needed to fund it, so the UK government would have to come up with most of the money.

- The Prime Minister isn't actually looking at any of the above questions, or indeed any wider questions about how the Welsh or Northern English economies might work better with the Irish one (this point clearly needs big cooperation and funding from the Irish Government). He is simply saying 'Look, a bridge!'. Many will disagree with me on this.

So the project is both serious and scatterbrained, simultaneously.