Coronavirus virus fears causing panic buying

[YorkshireBear]

My local Asda today...

Keighley asda? I'm sure I recognise that view.

Weve run out of paracetamol the other day and haven't managed to restock at all. Don't mean a week, I mean like two packets to have to hand. None left at all.

 

[Cowley]

Excellent!

However, I can't carry a hot water tap in my pocket

Sanitiser is easy to make - and cheap

Yes I use petrol too. Apply liberally and leave to evaporate.

 

[Busaholic]

Semi-serious question - should we not be considering applying soap and water to BOTH sides of our hands? I don't think I've ever seen anyone really doing that. I know it's difficult, other than for the double-jointed, and involves use of both hands, which may go against the grain for some . but wouldn't it reduce the risk even more?

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I've always washed both sides of my hands. It's never even occurred to me that some people might not be doing that!

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Semi-serious question - should we not be considering applying soap and water to BOTH sides of our hands?

Serious answer - yes - and in between the fingers and under the fingernails

 

[Busaholic]

I've always washed both sides of my hands. It's never even occurred to me that some people might not be doing that!

Shows I haven't taken enough interest when in the Gents!

 

[miami]

Yes, the whole 'how to wash your hands' thing from across the media for the last month states about ensuring fornt and back, inside out, upside down etc.

The pub I went to today had no soap left.

 

[PG]

If they have a cold. It's general anti-infection advice, and partly because if you have both a cold *and* coronavirus you are going to have an utterly rotten time of things.

In my local shop today the assistant advised that supposedly (according to social media) the cardboard inner roll of toilet roll comes from China, hence why people were stocking up!!
FWIW said shop had plenty of toilet rolls.

Maybe. I never wash my hands.

Perhaps more likely people have seen the government advice and started consuming soap at a much higher level than usual.



most kind

You never know maybe I'll actually see someone wash their hands after using a public toilet...

Excellent!

However, I can't carry a hot water tap in my pocket

Sanitizer is easy to make - and cheap

IIRC studies have shown that cold water is just as effective as hot for hand washing - not that you've got a cold water tap in your pocket either!

Serious answer - yes - and in between the fingers and under the fingernails

Shame the population at large seem unaware of this or can't be bothered - pictures below from NHS:

 

[Bletchleyite]

In my local shop today the assistant advised that supposedly (according to social media) the cardboard inner roll of toilet roll comes from China, hence why people were stocking up!!

Crikey, that has been going round but it's a joke! Some people have zero critical thinking ability.

 

[Busaholic]

Crikey, that has been going round but it's a joke! Some people have zero critical thinking ability.

I heard they sent the cardboard bits through to North Korea for them to fit the actual toilet roll round. Are you telling me that's myth?

 

[t_star2001uk]

Keighley asda? I'm sure I recognise that view.

Not Kieghley im afraid. The picture i posted is from Chatham...

 

[DelW]

Yes I use petrol too. Apply liberally and leave to evaporate.

Smokers should not try this at home

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes I use petrol too. Apply liberally and leave to evaporate.

Are you actually being serious? There's all sorts of additive rubbish in petrol, a lot of which is carcinogenic. Getting it all over your hands is not sensible.

 

[Cowley]

Are you actually being serious? There's all sorts of additive rubbish in petrol, a lot of which is carcinogenic. Getting it all over your hands is not sensible.

No I most definitely was not being serious.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No I most definitely was not being serious.

I originally thought not but did wonder

 

[341o2]

Reminds me of the mother to be regarding childcare and said she would put her finger in the baby's mouth...
...after first dipping it in boiling water, of course

 

[DarloRich]

Semi-serious question - should we not be considering applying soap and water to BOTH sides of our hands? I don't think I've ever seen anyone really doing that.

that is what I do. Surely everyone does!

 

[Bletchleyite]

that is what I do. Surely everyone does!

Yeah, why would you only wash part of your hands?

 

[GB]

Surely it depends on the reason why you are washing your hands. After visiting the bathroom sure, wash both sides of hands...but if I have just made myself a jam sandwich and for what ever reason I have picked up the wrong end of the knife then I'd only wash the one side.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Surely it depends on the reason why you are washing your hands. After visiting the bathroom sure, wash both sides of hands...but if I have just made myself a jam sandwich and for what ever reason I have picked up the wrong end of the knife then I'd only wash the one side.

I would wash my hands in the bathroom after visiting the toilet.

 

[UP13]

All my local shops are out of toilet paper. Little bit concerned as we're about to run out...

I'd be annoyed if those who have stockpiled are using it to blow the noses etc...

 

[AnthonyRail]

Are you actually being serious? There's all sorts of additive rubbish in petrol, a lot of which is carcinogenic. Getting it all over your hands is not sensible.

Not at the price per litre here i wont

 

[ASharpe]

Keighley asda? I'm sure I recognise that view.

Weve run out of paracetamol the other day and haven't managed to restock at all. Don't mean a week, I mean like two packets to have to hand. None left at all.

Clearly not Keighley Asda - the ceiling is far too low. My best guess is Darlington. (We play this game a lot at work)

 

[Baxenden Bank]

This might get deleted as a duplicate but I'm going to post this message here also.

Everyone should bookmark and read these links. It is possible to be cynical about the government/officialdom, some might suggest they are a tad slow to action (remember foot and mouth), but they are going to be a far better source of FACTS than hysterical click-bait news websites desperate for your attention.

UK Government: Information for the public:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

UK Government: Coronovirus Action Plan
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-action-plan

NHS: Advice for the public
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

PS the simple death rate is just under 4% of those diagnosed ie died to date compared to diagnosed to date. Over 53% have recovered.

Death rates from comparable diseases (source Wikipedia):
Asian Flu (1956-58) – around 0.1%
Spanish Flu (1918) – greater than 2.5%
SARS – 11%
MERS – 45%
Ebola – 83% to 90%

 

[edwin_m]

PS the simple death rate is just under 4% of those diagnosed ie died to date compared to diagnosed to date. Over 53% have recovered.

Death rates from comparable diseases (source Wikipedia):
Asian Flu (1956-58) – around 0.1%
Spanish Flu (1918) – greater than 2.5%
SARS – 11%
MERS – 45%
Ebola – 83% to 90%

However the simple death rate as you define it is not the same as the probability of an individual, having been diagnosed, dying from the disease. The ratio of deaths to diagnoses changes day by day, and depends on the rate of spread as well as the actual mortality. It is also influenced by whether there are undiagnosed cases or some of the people alive when the count was taken die afterwards, so it's quite difficult to calculate a proper mortality rate. The 4% should therefore not be compared to the other mortality rates you have quoted - I've seen mortality rates between 1% and 3.5% quoted for Covid-19. There are some better figures in the Coronavirus Action Plan linked from the second link in #144.

 

[krus_aragon]

The ratio of deaths to diagnoses changes day by day, and depends on the rate of spread as well as the actual mortality.

That ratio will also regress to the mean, day by day, and become a more accurate estimate.

But you're quite right to point out that transmissibility, and thus the spread of the virus, should also be considered. Spanish flu may have had a far lower mortality rate than SARS or MERS, but the fact that it spread right across the world means it resulted in far more mortalities.

 

[Meerkat]

The bit that scares me is that chart that is supposed to cheer us up by saying most people only have mild symptoms. But it also shows 1 in 20 ending up in intensive car......there are only a few thousand ICU beds....

 

[Bletchleyite]

The bit that scares me is that chart that is supposed to cheer us up by saying most people only have mild symptoms. But it also shows 1 in 20 ending up in intensive car......there are only a few thousand ICU beds....

This is precisely the reason for the slowing tactics. It's accepted that pretty much everyone will get it, I think, but what is needed is to drag that out over a couple of months.

 

[Meerkat]

This is precisely the reason for the slowing tactics. It's accepted that pretty much everyone will get it, I think, but what is needed is to drag that out over a couple of months.

That’s the bit I have no idea about. We don’t all get flu, despite there being no containment attempts.
Merkel said 80% of Germans will get it, but one German expert says it will be much lower.

 

[notlob.divad]

That’s the bit I have no idea about. We don’t all get flu, despite there being no containment attempts.
Merkel said 80% of Germans will get it, but one German expert says it will be much lower.

The problem with the "We don't all get flu" position is that this isn't flu.
The normal flu that passes around has a level of societal immunity. So a large portion of society will be exposed to the virus but will not actually get any symptoms or become contagious. We also have annual flu shots to immunise vulnerable people.

With Covid-19, very very few people will have developed an immunity to it, and there is no vacination to immunise the most vulnerable in society. Society as a whole does not have the built-up immunity to it and so it is likely to pass from person to person to person and thus on to someone who is really vulnerable far more freely than regular influenza.

Mortality rates are only a small part of the story compared to contangion and immunity rates. If as appears to be happening, you can be contagious during the incubation period, before displaying symptoms then there is a positive feedback loop that will cause the expontial increases we are seeing in countries still sticking to the 'contain' strategy. You can only contain it if you remain ahead of the curve, catching an isolating people before they pass it on. Once you are behind the curve you need to immediately move to the delay phase to keep it from getting out of hand. That means reducing social contact to the bare minimum, so that clusters can quickly be identified and isolated before they pass it on to others. Once your recovery rates start to pick-up it is an indication that we are starting to develop societal immunity, and some of the restrictions can gradually be lifted.