Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[yorksrob]

I have to say, the pub this evening seems noticably less busy than last Friday. I wonder if some have already locked themselves down.

 

[LAX54]

I think this is now probably coming from school reopening. Which raises a big question about universities which are next...

Or the rise is from a vastly increased testing progarmme !

 

[MikeWM]

I have to say, the pub this evening seems noticably less busy than last Friday. I wonder if some have already locked themselves down.

My local Tesco was very poor for stock last night (to the degree that I'll have to try again tonight and hope it is better). I hope that was a total coincidence, and we're not going to see a return of the panic-buying

 

[adc82140]

France has ruled out another national lockdown, and has shied away from restricting social contacts

France sees 'clear worsening' of Covid-19 outbreak, govt maintains strategy, says PM

France is seeing an acceleration of the Covid-19 outbreak after a surge in infections but aims to avoid any new nationwide lockdown, Prime Minister Jean Castex said Friday.

www.france24.com

Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Friday his government was not planning a new, nationwide lockdown to contain a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, but would instead implement a raft of less radical measures.


The prime minister said these would include fast-tracked testing for priority cases, and giving local authorities the power to make some businesses reduce opening hours.

The French authorities have twigged that constantly castigating and threatening your population is counterproductive. If only our lot would finally see the light.

 

[AdamWW]

My local Tesco was very poor for stock last night (to the degree that I'll have to try again tonight and hope it is better). I hope that was a total coincidence, and we're not going to see a return of the panic-buying

Hmmm. My local supermarket was very low on pasta a couple of days go.

Not seen it like that since the "panic-buying" phase.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I have to say, the pub this evening seems noticably less busy than last Friday. I wonder if some have already locked themselves down.

If there's a rise in cases, people will also stay at home to avoid the risk of self-isolation. Much as I enjoy a trip to the pub, if I think it puts me at real risk of a two week house arrest, I'm not going to go.

 

[yorksrob]

My local Tesco was very poor for stock last night (to the degree that I'll have to try again tonight and hope it is better). I hope that was a total coincidence, and we're not going to see a return of the panic-buying

Yes, I hadn't thought about the pannick buying aspect. I guess I will find out this Sunday !

If there's a rise in cases, people will also stay at home to avoid the risk of self-isolation. Much as I enjoy a trip to the pub, if I think it puts me at real risk of a two week house arrest, I'm not going to go.

There's an element of that, but if I'd have made that decision when the pubs opened, I'd have missed out on two months of pub going.

 

[NorthOxonian]

There's an element of that, but if I'd have made that decision when the pubs opened, I'd have missed out on two months of pub going.

Not necessarily - when cases were very low near me, I didn't think there was much of a risk, but as cases increased, I knew that the dreaded phone call would be far more likely. I haven't been to a pub since the end of August, and probably won't go to one until I move back down south next month, where infection rates are much lower.

 

[Pete_uk]

I am a chosen one!

I have had a letter come today asking me to take part in the Her majesty's goverments covid 19 testing programme. I will receive a testing kit which I am to run around my chosen tonsils and the back of my chosen nose which will be returned to se if I have the virus.

You may bask in my glory.



Go on..

 

[Class 33]

3,539 new cases today, yikes.

On the positive side some of the testing statistics have been updated; 227,465 tests on Thursday.

Yes, another hike in new cases to now over 3,500. What a darn nuisance. The (online) press and media are all over this today, all doom and gloom again as per usual, what with "Terrifying second wave IS coming", "Fears of second full national lockdown", etc, again! Am not going to even attempt watching any of the ITV News at 6:30 tonight. I'm going to switch off tonight from checking anything about this damn Coronavirus in a minute, and I need to cut down keep checking the online press during the day every day. My mental health has taken a bit of a downturn during the past week. I'm currently still not concerned that this "Terrifying second wave" is going to materialise. The daily deaths are STILL very very low - an average of under 10 deaths per day. Unlike a few months+ ago, Most of these new cases are with young people who only suffer mild effects of the disease, which don't result in hospital admissions and deaths. With this huge increase in new cases though, we'll have to see what the deaths rate are like in 3 to 4 weeks time though. Hopefully there shouldn't be much of an increase, if atall. What is concerning and getting to me though, is what restrictions/laws the government is going to bring in next, how many more months is all this going to drag on for, and the worry there could be a second full national lockdown. Some of you on here saying there's no way there will be a second full national lockdown. But with this government, I really wouldn't put it past them to implement this - they're just taking too much notice of the rise in new cases and the infection rate, rather than the still very low deaths!

I also posted on here a few weeks ago an article about Jonathan Van Tam saying social distancing could well last until at least April 2021. Some of you rubbished what he was saying, and saying there's no way social distancing can last till then. Unfortunately and I hate to say this, with the way things are going, Jonathan Van Tam may well turn out to be right on what he said.

 

[packermac]

France has ruled out another national lockdown, and has shied away from restricting social contacts

France sees 'clear worsening' of Covid-19 outbreak, govt maintains strategy, says PM

France is seeing an acceleration of the Covid-19 outbreak after a surge in infections but aims to avoid any new nationwide lockdown, Prime Minister Jean Castex said Friday.

www.france24.com

The French authorities have twigged that constantly castigating and threatening your population is counterproductive. If only our lot would finally see the light.

Or rather difficult to justify whilst you are hosting the worlds largest professional cycle race and allowing the masses to attend.

 

[Domh245]

I'm going to switch off tonight from checking anything about this damn Coronavirus in a minute, and I need to cut down keep checking the online press during the day every day.

I think that's for the best. It's important not to wear yourself down by constantly looking for information, especially where it's not news you want to hear. Take care of yourself

The daily deaths are STILL very very low - an average of under 10 deaths per day. Unlike a few months+ ago, Most of these new cases are with young people who only suffer mild effects of the disease, which don't result in hospital admissions and deaths. With this huge increase in new cases though, we'll have to see what the deaths rate are like in 3 to 4 weeks time though. Hopefully there shouldn't be much of an increase, if at all.

Sadly that isn't how it works. We're picking up a lot of cases amongst young people, but they don't exist in a bubble, and it will inevitably spread to more vulnerable people. Indeed, we are already seeing hospital admissions on the rise, the number today is double what it was last week in England. The trends are all there showing which way things are going, it is only a matter of time before deaths follow. With any luck, with the improved treatments and better understanding, we won't see as high a fatality rate as we did in the peak, but it is inevitable that more people will start dying again

 

[yorksrob]

Not necessarily - when cases were very low near me, I didn't think there was much of a risk, but as cases increased, I knew that the dreaded phone call would be far more likely. I haven't been to a pub since the end of August, and probably won't go to one until I move back down south next month, where infection rates are much lower.

I suppose for me, if I wasn't going to the pub, I wouldn't be doing much anyway.

In truth, I'd hope that they would be a bit more nuanced than telling everyone who's been in a pub on the same day to self -isolate, i.e. ascertain time of visit, proximity etc, but I haven't a clue whether that's the case or not.

 

[Pete_uk]

Or rather difficult to justify whilst you are hosting the worlds largest professional cycle race and allowing the masses to attend.

A eurosport commentator went off on one about some of the people watching not wearing masks. A other commentator then said how we are told the virus doesnt spread very well in sunlight..

 

[geoffk]

Yes I'm finding all the doom and gloom depressing at the moment and I'm planning a 250 mile house move! perhaps I should just delay it until, say, March.

 

[AdamWW]

In truth, I'd hope that they would be a bit more nuanced than telling everyone who's been in a pub on the same day to self -isolate, i.e. ascertain time of visit, proximity etc, but I haven't a clue whether that's the case or not.

I have seen plenty of speculation that track and trace would be used in such a blunt way, and nothing so far indicating that it is actually happening like that.

I think that's for the best. It's important not to wear yourself down by constantly looking for information, especially where it's not news you want to hear. Take care of yourself



Sadly that isn't how it works. We're picking up a lot of cases amongst young people, but they don't exist in a bubble, and it will inevitably spread to more vulnerable people. Indeed, we are already seeing hospital admissions on the rise, the number today is double what it was last week in England. The trends are all there showing which way things are going, it is only a matter of time before deaths follow. With any luck, with the improved treatments and better understanding, we won't see as high a fatality rate as we did in the peak, but it is inevitable that more people will start dying again

The good news I suppose is that we probably don't have to wait too long now to find out to what extent hospitalisations and deaths are following infection rates.

I think it's all highly complex and trying to work out what's going on from simple arithmetic on the statistics we're given probably isn't a very useful endeavour.

 

[Domh245]

I think it's all highly complex and trying to work out what's going on from simple arithmetic on the statistics we're given probably isn't a very useful endeavour.

Agreed - there's a reason that there are whole departments relating to pandemic modelling at universities.

 

[takno]

Agreed - there's a reason that there are whole departments relating to pandemic modelling at universities.

Given their performance so far I'm starting to feel like more competent generalists would have been preferable. I mean no self-respecting mathematical modeller without an "important specialism" to fall back on would have relied on an incompetently-coded under-reviewed and hopelessly out of date model like Ferguson's

 

[AdamWW]

Given their performance so far I'm starting to feel like more competent generalists would have been preferable. I mean no self-respecting mathematical modeller without an "important specialism" to fall back on would have relied on an incompetently-coded under-reviewed and hopelessly out of date model like Ferguson's

I presume you're referring to Niel Ferguson's model, which was in fact not the only model used by SAGE to advise the government prior to the lockdown.

 

[Yew]

Agreed - there's a reason that there are whole departments relating to pandemic modelling at universities.

It does start to feel like they're stuffed with people who's entire job security is based on providing massive over-estimates of deaths.

 

[MikeWM]

Just to report that the stock at Tesco tonight looked fairly normal and I got everything I needed.

Hope I didn't start a panic earlier :-/

 

[yorkie]

....it is inevitable that more people will start dying again

Meanwhile deaths from suicides and 'flu (both of which are, as I understand it, higher than due to Covid at present) continue to take place without any concerns by the media or the hysterical brigade whatsoever.

 

[trebor79]

Just to report that the stock at Tesco tonight looked fairly normal and I got everything I needed.

Hope I didn't start a panic earlier :-/

Supermarkets all seem normal at the moment. I'd like to think they have learned from earlier in the year and would apply purchase limits as soon as they spotted hoarding behaviour.
I actually think the supermarkets responded really well to this crisis. I was seriously impressed at the way they got restocked and ramped up online to meet demand. (Ironically, after doing it online for years I've reverted to shopping in person, for a variety of reasons.)
I think some of the panic buying idiots will have realised there's really no need to have like that.

 

[yorkie]

Can we keep the discussion regarding supermarkets in the dedicated threads please

 

[brad465]

Did Scotland see any increase after their schools re-opened? As I understand it they went back earlier so that could provide an insight?

It still seems a bit early for it to be schools, some have barely been back a week.

One does wonder if a month of packed restaurants and cafes might have played a part, though one might have expected that to show through sooner.

We've been out and about these last two days and can already overhear Karen types advocating lockdown.

This spike will best correlate with the Bank holiday weekend right at the end of August, which was nearly 2 weeks ago now. Effects of schools reopening on infection levels should be in the coming week onwards, while if this weekend is manic as a result of the silly decision to wait 5 days to implement the rule of 6, there maybe another spike linked to that later this month.

 

[philosopher]

This spike will best correlate with the Bank holiday weekend right at the end of August, which was nearly 2 weeks ago now. Effects of schools reopening on infection levels should be in the coming week onwards, while if this weekend is manic as a result of the silly decision to wait 5 days to implement the rule of 6, there maybe another spike linked to that later this month.

The weather on the bank holiday weekend was rather crap, which perhaps forced a lot of socialising to happen indoors and made that weekend particularly bad for spreading Covid-19.

 

[AdamWW]

It does start to feel like they're stuffed with people who's entire job security is based on providing massive over-estimates of deaths.

Maybe.

My view is that they are stuffed with people who cautiously give a range of modelled deaths along with caveats, which are generally stripped out by journalists keen on a sensational headline along the lines of "Scientists preduct up to x thousand/million deaths".

When the worst case fails to materialise, the same journalists can then get double duty out of it by running a story on how badly wrong the predictions were.

To take an example, here is the abstract from a paper predicting BSE deaths:

Following the controversial failure of a recent study and the small numbers of animals yet screened for infection, it remains uncertain whether bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was transmitted to sheep in the past via feed supplements and whether it is still present. Well grounded mathematical and statistical models are therefore essential to integrate the limited and disparate data, to explore uncertainty, and to define data-collection priorities. We analysed the implications of different scenarios of BSE spread in sheep for relative human exposure levels and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) incidence. Here we show that, if BSE entered the sheep population and a degree of transmission occurred, then ongoing public health risks from ovine BSE are likely to be greater than those from cattle, but that any such risk could be reduced by up to 90% through additional restrictions on sheep products entering the food supply. Extending the analysis to consider absolute risk, we estimate the 95% confidence interval for future vCJD mortality to be 50 to 50,000 human deaths considering exposure to bovine BSE alone, with the upper bound increasing to 150,000 once we include exposure from the worst-case ovine BSE scenario examined.

Do you think this resulted in a headline: "BSE could cause as few as 50 deaths"?
Or "BSE could cause anything from 50 to 1500 000 deaths?"
Or "Worst case estimate for BSE deaths is only 0.003% of the population"

 

[scotrail158713]

The weather on the bank holiday weekend was rather crap, which perhaps forced a lot of socialising to happen indoors and made that weekend particularly bad for spreading Covid-19.

That would seem to make sense - and proves the virus spreads far more indoors.
Everyone piled to the beaches (outdoors) in July - no spike.
Everyone meets up (indoors) over the bank holiday weekend - seems to be a spike.

 

[adc82140]

In which case rule of six indoors, rule of 30 outdoors (including gardens) would make more sense.

 

[Yew]

In which case rule of six indoors, rule of 30 outdoors (including gardens) would make more sense.

But then Boris wouldn't have a snappy soundbite