Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[317 forever]

Yes I'm finding all the doom and gloom depressing at the moment and I'm planning a 250 mile house move! perhaps I should just delay it until, say, March.

You can move 250 miles any time you like, lockdown or not, if you are moving to Barnard Castle.

 

[ainsworth74]

Have to say it's concerning that it appears to be on the verge of getting loose in care homes again:

Coronavirus: Concerns over increase in COVID-19 cases in care homes

One newspaper report says Health Secretary Matt Hancock was told last week that outbreaks had been detected in 43 care homes.

Fears are growing over the COVID-19 threat in care homes as a report claims there have been outbreaks detected at 43 facilities.

The government has sent a letter to care providers warning them to "take the necessary action to prevent and limit outbreaks".

The letter, from Stuart Miller, director of adult social care delivery at the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), said: "You will know already that we are experiencing a rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases, across the UK population.

"I need to alert you to the first signs this rise is being reflected in care homes too.

"Over the past three days, Public Health England has reported an increase in notifications of COVID-19 cases in care homes.

"Testing data has also shown an increase in the number of positive results.

"Currently, the infections are mainly affecting the workforce but clearly there is a risk the virus will spread to care home residents, or to other parts of the care sector.

"Unfortunately, in some care homes with recent outbreaks, this does appear to have occurred, with residents also becoming infected."

The Sunday Times said Health Secretary Matt Hancock was told on Wednesday that outbreaks had been detected in 43 care homes.

The rate of coronavirus recorded through satellite tests, used in care homes, has quadrupled since the beginning of the month, the newspaper added.

It comes as more than 3,000 coronavirus cases were recorded in the UK for the second day in a row - as of 9am on Saturday, there had been 3,497 lab-confirmed cases, slightly lower than the 3,539 cases recorded on Friday.

A DHSC spokeswoman said: "Throughout our coronavirus response we have been doing everything we can to ensure all staff and residents in care homes are protected.

"We are testing all residents and staff, have provided 200 million items of PPE and ring-fenced £600m to prevent infections in care homes, with a further £3.7bn available to councils to address pressures caused by the pandemic, including in adult social care.

"There is a high demand for tests and our laboratories continue to turn test results around as quickly as possible and we plan to rapidly expand it in the coming weeks as well as bringing in new technology to process tests faster."

Coronavirus: Concerns over increase in COVID-19 cases in care homes

One newspaper report says Health Secretary Matt Hancock was told last week that outbreaks had been detected in 43 care homes.

news.sky.com

As an aside as someone who has dealing with the DWP it's heartening to see that their brand of "say nothing, admit nothing, tell people everything is amazing when it obviously isn't" responses to the media can also be found elsewhere in Whitehall

 

[Howardh]

If the people affected in care homes is just the workers, then they should be able to protect the residents by wearing PPE - and hopefully frequent testing to keep carriers away from work. If then there's still passage of the virus on to the residents, then is that because PPE doesn't work, isn't being used properly or getting to the residents via other means?

 

[Yew]

We aren’t in lockdown, most businesses are open, the schools are open, and the government clearly is very keen on keeping it that way. Get opening up wrong and you will be pretty much forced into a hardcore lockdown though.

Excellent, I'll head out to a night club next saturday with seven friends.

More seriously, I think that unfortunately "lockdown" and "restrictions" have became conflated in public discourse currently.

Have to say it's concerning that it appears to be on the verge of getting loose in care homes again:

Coronavirus: Concerns over increase in COVID-19 cases in care homes

One newspaper report says Health Secretary Matt Hancock was told last week that outbreaks had been detected in 43 care homes.

news.sky.com

As an aside as someone who has dealing with the DWP it's heartening to see that their brand of "say nothing, admit nothing, tell people everything is amazing when it obviously isn't" responses to the media can also be found elsewhere in Whitehall

Again? If we learned one lesson, it's that we need to protect these places if we want to keep deaths down. (The value proposition of this is something I'll leave for another thread.)

 

[Bantamzen]

I am. Can't go to the pub (they're forcibly closed) or have a sit-dowm meal in a cafe, can't make an unnecessary journey, can't play badminton, volleyball or snooker indoors with my chums. And, due to the risk of getting/passing on covid, I haven't had any nocturnal adult fun for months.

My life's ticking away, and I'm mentally stressed about it.

I know how you feel, I haven't seen much of my family since before the lockdown, we can't see my wife's grandkids, her business has lost thousands, I'm spending much of my waking time in the same room (office / living room), can't go to watch football, haven't seen much of my mates, shopping is now on a need-only basis, we've had to cancel two holidays. I can luckily go to the pub, although with most booking in advance there's no more spontaneous visiting, and I do still get out for walks which along with my gaming are about the only retreats I have right now.

All of this has been slowly grinding me down, my anxiety which I have had control of for years is back with a vengeance, especially with this relentless fear mongering from the "you'll kill granny" crowd. This is now taking its toll on my physical wellbeing, and I know I am far from alone.

Sooner or later there is going to be a terrible price to pay for all this.

 

[Meerkat]

Of course announcing you are binning restrictions will create a lot of fear and stress too, and the idea that we just protect the vulnerable concentrates the mental stress onto a smaller group who will really suffer.

 

[Bantamzen]

Of course announcing you are binning restrictions will create a lot of fear and stress too, and the idea that we just protect the vulnerable concentrates the mental stress onto a smaller group who will really suffer.

So you are suggesting we can never remove them?

 

[Howardh]

I know how you feel, I haven't seen much of my family since before the lockdown, we can't see my wife's grandkids, her business has lost thousands, I'm spending much of my waking time in the same room (office / living room), can't go to watch football, haven't seen much of my mates, shopping is now on a need-only basis, we've had to cancel two holidays. I can luckily go to the pub, although with most booking in advance there's no more spontaneous visiting, and I do still get out for walks which along with my gaming are about the only retreats I have right now.

All of this has been slowly grinding me down, my anxiety which I have had control of for years is back with a vengeance, especially with this relentless fear mongering from the "you'll kill granny" crowd. This is now taking its toll on my physical wellbeing, and I know I am far from alone.

Sooner or later there is going to be a terrible price to pay for all this.

All my European holidays have been abandoned, which was the one thing about retirement I was really looking forward to. I managed a football game, capped at 300 fans, but still can't get to see my beloved Lancs play cricket. My holidays are now UK and booked at the very last minute, so the enjoyment of the anticipation has gone. At the start of the first lockdown I was indeed in a very dark place, made worse by not being allowed to visit my mother and father's graves - mum died in January.
If we get a further lockdown of the type we had in march, especially if the number dying is much, much lower than then, I'm really not sure I could cope, alone, for another three months. Many will think it's lockdown for the sake of it, and enjoy the shaudenfreude of everyone else being cooped inside.

 

[bramling]

I know how you feel, I haven't seen much of my family since before the lockdown, we can't see my wife's grandkids, her business has lost thousands, I'm spending much of my waking time in the same room (office / living room), can't go to watch football, haven't seen much of my mates, shopping is now on a need-only basis, we've had to cancel two holidays. I can luckily go to the pub, although with most booking in advance there's no more spontaneous visiting, and I do still get out for walks which along with my gaming are about the only retreats I have right now.

All of this has been slowly grinding me down, my anxiety which I have had control of for years is back with a vengeance, especially with this relentless fear mongering from the "you'll kill granny" crowd. This is now taking its toll on my physical wellbeing, and I know I am far from alone.

Sooner or later there is going to be a terrible price to pay for all this.

Lots of people feel same. I’m off work for seven weeks having pushed all my leave to this period. Really feel drained, we had a few days up north last week which to be honest was a bit of a chore in a number of Covid-related ways. This week we had a couple of days in Essex which went better being all outdoor stuff. Just feel drained and worn down, even when doing leisure stuff!

By contrast it’s been eight months of rolling bank holiday for some.

 

[Bantamzen]

All my European holidays have been abandoned, which was the one thing about retirement I was really looking forward to. I managed a football game, capped at 300 fans, but still can't get to see my beloved Lancs play cricket. My holidays are now UK and booked at the very last minute, so the enjoyment of the anticipation has gone. At the start of the first lockdown I was indeed in a very dark place, made worse by not being allowed to visit my mother and father's graves - mum died in January.
If we get a further lockdown of the type we had in march, especially if the number dying is much, much lower than then, I'm really not sure I could cope, alone, for another three months. Many will think it's lockdown for the sake of it, and enjoy the shaudenfreude of everyone else being cooped inside.

We can only hope common sense kicks in soon, and mitigations are made to allow us some sense of normality before it really effects millions of people really badly

Lots of people feel same. I’m off work for seven weeks having pushed all my leave to this period. Really feel drained, we had a few days up north last week which to be honest was a bit of a chore in a number of Covid-related ways. This week we had a couple of days in Essex which went better being all outdoor stuff. Just feel drained and worn down, even when doing leisure stuff!

By contrast it’s been eight months of rolling bank holiday for some.

Yep, and its the bank holidayers that seem to be driving the agenda.

 

[bramling]

Of course announcing you are binning restrictions will create a lot of fear and stress too, and the idea that we just protect the vulnerable concentrates the mental stress onto a smaller group who will really suffer.

So what’s the alternative? Stop life indefinitely and we all lose X years of our lives until an effective vaccine emerges which could be never?

This is one thing for a short time-bound period, but we cannot and should not go on like that into the medium and long term, which is what is now happening.

 

[Howardh]

So what’s the alternative? Stop life indefinitely and we all lose X years of our lives until an effective vaccine emerges which could be never?

This is one thing for a short time-bound period, but we cannot and should not go on like that into the medium and long term, which is what is now happening.

I suppose someone has to take the bull by the horns and say "By XX of the XX we will go back to normal - save for elderly in homes - regardless, and you can book your holidays next year and be sure to go if there's no significant increase in deaths". I suppose we will need to know WHY deaths aren't increasing (masks? drugs? vulnerable already died?) and work with that, as currently the uncertainty is the absolute worst thing - last March I was anticipating 6 months of no holidays, but right now I'm thinking that there will be nothing during the whole of next year. That also means, no/limited football or cricket to watch, no indoor sports to play etc etc.

 

[bramling]

I suppose someone has to take the bull by the horns and say "By XX of the XX we will go back to normal - save for elderly in homes - regardless, and you can book your holidays next year and be sure to go if there's no significant increase in deaths". I suppose we will need to know WHY deaths aren't increasing (masks? drugs? vulnerable already died?) and work with that, as currently the uncertainty is the absolute worst thing - last March I was anticipating 6 months of no holidays, but right now I'm thinking that there will be nothing during the whole of next year. That also means, no/limited football or cricket to watch, no indoor sports to play etc etc.

Having nothing for all of next year is completely unacceptable. I for one am not prepared to go to work day in day out and have no quality leisure time. I’m already pretty peeved that it’s looking quite possible (if Karen gets her way) we will have had a situation this year where holidays are out except for the summer period July to September.

I want to get to Wales. With everything being outdoor it’s basically no risk to anyone - I’m quite happy to take a microwave to the hotel room if need be and do the room cleaning ourselves. With this year’s summer weather already having been “interesting” (whilst April and May were fine - the period we were originally supposed to be on holiday, typically - since then things have been rather hit and miss, and in particular longer range forecasts have been even more useless than usual, this already puts an element of lottery on it, especially with the shorter days now).

I can just see that we’ll end up in Wales and after a couple of days get politely chucked out of the hotel due to some local lockdown or something. I suppose the bright side is at least we won’t have to quarantine! Worse is the thought of being on the receiving end of some of the vigilantism seen back in March, though to be fair we won’t be going to honeypots, where most of the issues seemed to be (to be fair I have some sympathy for locals in those areas).

It’s been lovely being active again these last couple of weeks though, even if it was more of a toe dipped in the water.

 

[adc82140]

Fortunately most of my interests involve being outdoors. However I am struggling with uncertainty. That is making me stressed. I can't plan anything. I'm walking the Thames Path with a friend in stages, but we can't plan the next stage properly because of the constant threat of further restrictions (I refuse to call it lockdown. That's a media invention). I want to plan a weekend away somewhere in the UK but the fear of losing money is stopping me. This can't go on. I think another set of nationwide restrictions would lead to unrest.

 

[bramling]

Fortunately most of my interests involve being outdoors. However I am struggling with uncertainty. That is making me stressed. I can't plan anything. I'm walking the Thames Path with a friend in stages, but we can't plan the next stage properly because of the constant threat of further restrictions (I refuse to call it lockdown. That's a media invention). I want to plan a weekend away somewhere in the UK but the fear of losing money is stopping me. This can't go on. I think another set of nationwide restrictions would lead to unrest.

I think it’s a case of just doing outdoors stuff and picking refundable accommodation.

We tried attractions last week and to be honest it was a chore. The booking just makes it a complete pain to plan, masks are a spoiler as well. Then there’s the bother of what to do about food in the evening - we turned up at a fairly mediocre chain restaurant to be met with “have you booked? No, oh dear we can’t seat you til 2100”.

At least when we do get to Wales there’s always the sea as a last resort - there’s only so much Boris can do to mess that up!

 

[Bantamzen]

At least when we do get to Wales there’s always the sea as a last resort - there’s only so much Boris can do to mess that up!

Just wait until the disposable masks start washing up....

 

[greyman42]

Of course announcing you are binning restrictions will create a lot of fear and stress too, and the idea that we just protect the vulnerable concentrates the mental stress onto a smaller group who will really suffer.

An announcement that we are binning restrictions would have the majority of us doing cartwheels and that includes many of the elderly.

 

[Huntergreed]

An announcement that we are binning restrictions would have the majority of us doing cartwheels and that includes many of the elderly.

Indeed, I firmly believe (whatever those yougov polls say) that the majority are now in favour of dropping this all and a full return to normal, accepting the ever so slightly heightened risk due to the virus.

 

[Bantamzen]

An announcement that we are binning restrictions would have the majority of us doing cartwheels and that includes many of the elderly.

To be fair @Meerkat does raise a valid point, there are going to be quite a lot of people scared so silly by the government's dialogue that they will need help getting out of the fear cycle. What we need is some calm, measured messaging, intelligent conversations around the actual risk vs perceived risk of the virus, and why in our society we simply cannot hide away and hope the virus forgets about us. Because obviously there is going to be a point, and probably soon, where a lot of people are going to start getting restless when they see the ongoing restrictions but not the apocalyptic death rates foretold. And when that point is reached, if there isn't a firm exit plan, the virus won't be anything like the worst thing to worry about.

 

[Meerkat]

So you are suggesting we can never remove them?

we have already removed loads of restrictions, and if you are right hospitalisations wont go up too much and the remaining restrictions will be eased. To remove restrictions whilst cases are rocketing and before we know the impact of schools and universities returning would be reckless.

So what’s the alternative? Stop life indefinitely and we all lose X years of our lives until an effective vaccine emerges which could be never?

This is one thing for a short time-bound period, but we cannot and should not go on like that into the medium and long term, which is what is now happening.

Life isn’t stopped, it is just restricted a bit

To be fair @Meerkat does raise a valid point, there are going to be quite a lot of people scared so silly by the government's dialogue that they will need help getting out of the fear cycle. What we need is some calm, measured messaging, intelligent conversations around the actual risk vs perceived risk of the virus, and why in our society we simply cannot hide away and hope the virus forgets about us. Because obviously there is going to be a point, and probably soon, where a lot of people are going to start getting restless when they see the ongoing restrictions but not the apocalyptic death rates foretold. And when that point is reached, if there isn't a firm exit plan, the virus won't be anything like the worst thing to worry about.

They don’t need the government to scare them, they know what happened earlier this year.

 

[Bantamzen]

They don’t need the government to scare them, they know what happened earlier this year.

For the vast majority of people what happened to earlier in the year posed no risk to them, save maybe having a few weeks feeling grotty. For those that were at risk the government failed them completely, especially by tipping lots of ill, elderly people back into care homes to make room for... Well, ill, elderly people. They like other governments just managed to distract a lot of people by making the whole thing sound so much worse than it actually was, so as to cover up their complete and disgraceful cock-ups.

 

[bramling]

Indeed, I firmly believe (whatever those yougov polls say) that the majority are now in favour of dropping this all and a full return to normal, accepting the ever so slightly heightened risk due to the virus.

Unfortunately I’m not quite so sure about that. There’s very much a mindset built up that this is something other people give to us, a kind of notion that others are automatically a bio-hazard.

The problem with that mentality, apart from that it’s inherently unpleasant, is that it seems to have encouraged a mindset where it’s other people who are the problem. Therefore it’s for *others* to suffer restrictions whilst *I* can carry on cherry picking the elements which I want to do, like going to restaurants or spending a day at the beach.

Then we have a related mentality which likes elements of restrictions as it allows a noose to be tied round things which certain people tolerated but disliked before - for example people having the audacity to cycle through someone’s village.

There’s a lot of people who I think are happy to support restrictions for as long as they feel it primarily affects others.

It is the classic Karen types. Husband working from home, wife stays at home or has a secondary job (perhaps furloughed), large garden, enough money to have been able to get a holiday cottage in a honeypot area for a week or two over the summer, etc.

I think the genuine elderly people are less bothered as they look at it and think we don’t know how long we have left, so would rather take our chances while we can.

Life isn’t stopped, it is just restricted a bit

Depends how one looks at it. In terms of quality leisure time doing the things I had planned to do, this year has been a complete write-off for me. We might just manage to salvage a few rotten days over the next couple of weeks if the weather holds up, but that’s basically it.

Now I was more than prepared to suck that up on the basis that this was predicted to be very serious, NHS overflowing, body bags lining the streets, et cetera, however reality is we clearly didn’t get close to that. Peer countries like Sweden have managed to avoid draconian measures.

I am simply not prepared for this to continue, especially when there’s ulterior and nefarious motives at play - someone posted on my local Facebook page only today that they want this all to continue for as long as possible as they prefer working from home.

 

[adc82140]

we have already removed loads of restrictions, and if you are right hospitalisations wont go up too much and the remaining restrictions will be eased.

Most restrictions were eased months ago, and there was no uptick in cases. The schools haven't been back long enough for cases to filter through yet.

So what has changed? What has caused the increase? I'd say public tolerance of social distancing and generally being barked instructions at has run out. Humans are naturally sociable animals. People have tolerated being apart from friends and family for quite a while.

The French have it right. They u derstand, even with 10000 new cases a day that you can only push the public so far.

 

[greyman42]

To be fair @Meerkat does raise a valid point, there are going to be quite a lot of people scared so silly by the government's dialogue that they will need help getting out of the fear cycle.

Why would any rational person be scared silly by what the government said. Surely they can see through the Bull****.

 

[Bantamzen]

Unfortunately I’m not quite so sure about that. There’s very much a mindset built up that this is something other people give to us, a kind of notion that others are automatically a bio-hazard.

The problem with that mentality, apart from that it’s inherently unpleasant, is that it seems to have encouraged a mindset where it’s other people who are the problem. Therefore it’s for *others* to suffer restrictions whilst *I* can carry on cherry picking the elements which I want to do, like going to restaurants or spending a day at the beach.

Then we have a related mentality which likes elements of restrictions as it allows a noose to be tied round things which certain people tolerated but disliked before - for example people having the audacity to cycle through someone’s village.

There’s a lot of people who I think are happy to support restrictions for as long as they feel it primarily affects others.

It is the classic Karen types. Husband working from home, wife stays at home or has a secondary job (perhaps furloughed), large garden, enough money to have been able to get a holiday cottage in a honeypot area for a week or two over the summer, etc.

I think the genuine elderly people are less bothered as they look at it and think we don’t know how long we have left, so would rather take our chances while we can.



Depends how one looks at it. In terms of quality leisure time doing the things I had planned to do, this year has been a complete write-off for me. We might just manage to salvage a few rotten days over the next couple of weeks if the weather holds up, but that’s basically it.

Now I was more than prepared to suck that up on the basis that this was predicted to be very serious, NHS overflowing, body bags lining the streets, et cetera, however reality is we clearly didn’t get close to that. Peer countries like Sweden have managed to avoid draconian measures.

I am simply not prepared for this to continue, especially when there’s ulterior and nefarious motives at play - someone posted on my local Facebook page only today that they want this all to continue for as long as possible as they prefer working from home.

I think this all sums it up quite nicely. For all the talk of altruism, the sad reality is that the agenda seems to be driven by people who've found themselves a comfortable little niche, be it working from home, being paid not to work, or simply enjoying fewer people in their spaces. So it really is quite a selfish agenda that we are following, but one that is not sustainable even in the short term.

We know were we are with the virus, we know who is at risk, we are learning how to treat them, we are looking at possible vaccines, so its time to start to bring the madness to an end.

Why would any rational person be scared silly by what the government said. Surely they can see through the Bull****.

Sadly, plenty of people lapped it right up, along of course with a promise for cash for doing nothing....

(Cynical? Me?)

 

[greyman42]

What we need is some calm, measured messaging, intelligent conversations around the actual risk vs perceived risk of the virus, and why in our society we simply cannot hide away and hope the virus forgets about us.

That's fine but while this longwinded messaging goes on, can the rest of us get on with our lives.

 

[Bantamzen]

That's fine but while this longwinded messaging goes on, can the rest of us get on with our lives.

It wouldn't need to be longwinded, although politicians would be involved....

 

[AM9]

Unfortunately I’m not quite so sure about that. There’s very much a mindset built up that this is something other people give to us, a kind of notion that others are automatically a bio-hazard.

The problem with that mentality, apart from that it’s inherently unpleasant, is that it seems to have encouraged a mindset where it’s other people who are the problem. Therefore it’s for *others* to suffer restrictions whilst *I* can carry on cherry picking the elements which I want to do, like going to restaurants or spending a day at the beach.

Then we have a related mentality which likes elements of restrictions as it allows a noose to be tied round things which certain people tolerated but disliked before - for example people having the audacity to cycle through someone’s village.

There’s a lot of people who I think are happy to support restrictions for as long as they feel it primarily affects others.

It is the classic Karen types. Husband working from home, wife stays at home or has a secondary job (perhaps furloughed), large garden, enough money to have been able to get a holiday cottage in a honeypot area for a week or two over the summer, etc.

I think the genuine elderly people are less bothered as they look at it and think we don’t know how long we have left, so would rather take our chances while we can.



Depends how one looks at it. In terms of quality leisure time doing the things I had planned to do, this year has been a complete write-off for me. We might just manage to salvage a few rotten days over the next couple of weeks if the weather holds up, but that’s basically it.

Now I was more than prepared to suck that up on the basis that this was predicted to be very serious, NHS overflowing, body bags lining the streets, et cetera, however reality is we clearly didn’t get close to that. Peer countries like Sweden have managed to avoid draconian measures.

I am simply not prepared for this to continue, especially when there’s ulterior and nefarious motives at play - someone posted on my local Facebook page only today that they want this all to continue for as long as possible as they prefer working from home.

I went to Borough Market and Shoreditch/Brick Lane yesterday, (first time on trains and into Central London since early March). Despite being well into the 'vulnerable' age group and travelling on Thameslink, Jubilee Line and LO, it was OK and there was almost total compliance with current rules. That was heartening that it seems to be holding up with the news of increasing infection rates.

Most restrictions were eased months ago, and there was no uptick in cases. The schools haven't been back long enough for cases to filter through yet.

So what has changed? What has caused the increase? I'd say public tolerance of social distancing and generally being barked instructions at has run out.

That reads like you actually understand that the restrictions have been working and because a significant number of people have started to ignore them, the infection rates have risen again.

 

[adc82140]

That reads like you actually understand that the restrictions have been working and because a significant number of people have started to ignore them, the infection rates have risen again.

I don't think anyone's denying that social distancing worked. It still worked when things like pubs and restaurants had opened up. It's accepted that airborne respiratory diseases do not spread as much outside. The uptick in cases is no reason to start shutting things down again and wrecking the economy further.

Without wanting to start another mask debate, for which there's already a thread, the widespread wearing of face coverings has contributed to social distancing breaking down. The public needs educating, not threatening.

If you keep telling a child off for everything they do, they stop listening. This has now happened with the government telling the public off all the time.

 

[C J Snarzell]

There has always been speculation about a second wave right from the early stages of the lockdown in March.

The problem is - the government reacts to the rise in Covid cases by putting us under restrictions again.

Then when the decision to relax the current 6 people measures comes, Covid cases start to rise again when more people socialise once more.

I said all along that if we get a second wave, are we not likely to get a third wave, and so on. It will become an endless cycle because clearly the virus is not going away.

We cannot go on in this constant state of limbo because the ecomony is being destroyed more and more and I genuinely think more & more people will rebell against government restrictions as time goes on.

CJ