In terms of a second wave peak, it appears we are at it now. I think at most we will see 200-250 deaths per day from Coronavirus in the next month or so.
There will probably be quite a major peak after Christmas and I will be suprised if hospitals don't begin to quite heavily lean on the Nightingales to cope with demand. There is already a peak in deaths post Christmas due to family & friends passing germs to the old and frail and seeing A&E departments getting completely swamped is not uncommon. Coronavirus will probably worsen this, so the nightingales will be very useful. In fact, maybe we should have more hospital beds in general...
Heard rumours on the vaccine front of things getting a little tricky. Summer 2021 seems likely to be the earliest.
This winter will be the true test of how bad Coronavirus can get. People tired of endless restrictions, cold weather getting people to socialise indoors, etc.
I think any prospect of a "circuit breaker" lockdown is ill conceived, a circuit break implies you are stopping something, which it will not. Perhaps you could call it a "Increased circuit resistance" lockdown, but maybe that's less catchy. The end result is the same though, as soon as you take that resistive load off, cases will increase. Except now you'll be deeper into flu season when it happens.
To save lives this winter we should:
Rollout of the flu Vaccine is more important than ever, especially to stop infections compounding.
Be very careful when meeting elderly/vulnerable relatives, try and keep it outdoors, or wear a mask inside. Get some blankets out if need be!
Keep washing hands frequently, sanitising when this is not possible.
Try to avoid an absolutely mad Christmas shopping rush, maybe do shopping during the week. Stores should extend opening hours and make sure to not let maximum capacity standards slip.
To save lives this winter we should not:
Lockdown and push more people into isolation, depression and poverty, especially when this coincides with bad weather and long nights.
Treat people like children - they will rebel, eventually!
Send out mixed, confused and frustrating messaging.
Sounds about right, yes.