YorkshireBear
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I wouldn't have bothered then
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2020 US Presidential Election
- Thread starter RichT54
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Same as 2016. Biden has clearly won the "popular vote" but it looks like Trump will storm the College again (293 predicted atm)
And may God have mercy on their souls.
Not necessarily. Biden is at 220 currently. Arizona's likely to go his way (11) along with Nevada (6), Maine (4) and Hawaii (4). That leaves Biden at 245.
States such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania haven't counted mail in ballots yet which there may be hundreds of thousands of, if not millions. This could tip that in Biden's favour and which is why Trump's trying to claim victory and call the fraud card already. Biden needs two of those to become president (Wisconsin and Michigan looking the closest between both candidates - if Biden wins those two states he wins 271 to 267).
kristiang85
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I think Trump has got it.
He needs 57 electoral college votes.
Alaska is a given with 3
He is over 100k ahead in Wisconsin with 93% of the vote counted, which is 10
He is 700k ahead in Penn. After 64% counted , which is 20.
Over 100k ahead in North Carolina with 94% of the count done, which is 15.
He is over 100k ahead in Georgia with 94% counted, which is 16 votes.
All those look likely to go through for him, which is 64. Unless the late counted postal ballots can produce a big swing, that is...
He needs 57 electoral college votes.
Alaska is a given with 3
He is over 100k ahead in Wisconsin with 93% of the vote counted, which is 10
He is 700k ahead in Penn. After 64% counted , which is 20.
Over 100k ahead in North Carolina with 94% of the count done, which is 15.
He is over 100k ahead in Georgia with 94% counted, which is 16 votes.
All those look likely to go through for him, which is 64. Unless the late counted postal ballots can produce a big swing, that is...
birchesgreen
Established Member
MI and PN don't look that close on the current figures but we'll see.
YorkshireBear
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Indeed. Doesn't look close at all looks like trump wins by a reasonable margin to me.
telstarbox
Established Member
Implied chances from Betfair Exchange are Trump 65% and Biden 35%. The Biden odds are shifting around a bit though.
birchesgreen
Established Member
I find some of the results a bit confusing, AZ was called for Biden where he has just over 50% but apparently 20% of votes are still to be counted?
I think in that case, the 20% of votes still to come were primarily from areas expected to vote Democrat, it's not that Biden has "won" it, just that it'd be impossible for Trump to take it back
nlogax
Established Member
It's far too soon to confidently predict a victory for either side. Biden needs fewer states than Trump and the majority of votes that will be counted from today are mail-in ballots which heavily favour the Democrats. There is still everything to play for.
What's thrown me is the size of the Trump vote this time around. It's enormous. In relation to this particular politician, polling is essentially broken. Trump supporters have been super reluctant to share their voting intentions with pollsters.
What's thrown me is the size of the Trump vote this time around. It's enormous. In relation to this particular politician, polling is essentially broken. Trump supporters have been super reluctant to share their voting intentions with pollsters.
eMeS
Member
Isn't that the point of a "secret ballot" ?
Yes big difference between us and the US is that unlike our elections where you don't get really get any information at all until the counting has finished and the result declared, in the US you get basically running tallies of votes from different precincts/counties which means it becomes possible to project who will win and that decision is being made by individual news organisations not by the State's election commission (or similar official body). But that's not the same thing as saying it's actually been won by the candidate. And it's not unheard of for an news organisation to call a state (or race) for one candidate and then have to retract later when the result is different. It's why you'll see things like "Fox News are projecting State X for Candidate B" but if you're watching say CNN you won't see CNN giving that state to Candidate B until they've also decided to call that state for them.
nlogax
Established Member
Polls are still a thing. This year Trump voters appear to have broken the model re. polling responses from previous elections. It's like they're embarrassed to admit they'd vote for him.
Watching Wisconsin move into the light blue column as the metro areas are counted. This could be what tips things Biden's way but it's incredibly tense.
telstarbox
Established Member
They've just gone to evens on Betfair 
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Exactly. It's clear that Trump has done a lot better than expected, the pollsters are going to have to do some analysis to figure out what went wrong, and the Democrats really need to re-learn how to campaign and win elections again - because this one should've been a walkover for them. But at the same time, it's still impossible to tell what the final result will be. Of the swing states still undecided, from the reporting I can see, it seems that only North Carolina is so far looking like a reasonably sure Trump victory. That's not enough by itself for him to win, though it's very possible he'll end up taking more.
telstarbox
Established Member
Odds have now switched round. Betfair's implied probabilities are 57% Biden and 43% Trump. All to play for.
I think Trump is going to get it hugely disappointing, and not good for this country or the world in my view. Another 4 years of this nut job.
But we do make the mistake that Americans are like us when the culture is somewhat different.
But we do make the mistake that Americans are like us when the culture is somewhat different.
I'm not so sure he will, Trump is looking better than predicted at this point due to votes being counted first from those who physically voted yesterday and this is expected to be a very pro-Republican demographic. A huge number of postal votes are yet to be counted and these are expected to be Democratic in favour.
It's the reason he was blustering last night about victory, it's because he's worried about the postal vote and was always going to declare a Supreme Court challenge if it was close.
Georgia is going to be interesting as well, it should have been nailed on Trump but it isn't.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
As I understand it, although Georgia is 90%+ counted with a narrow lead for Trump, most of the uncounted ballots are from the Atlanta area, which is where the Democrats tend to get many of their votes in the state: That's why Georgia is still being considered as a toss-up.
Weeks, it's gonna go through the courts.
I would imagine we'll have some sort of result possibly today or certainly in the next day or so. But, as @Darandio says, it's going to be a legal bunfight so we won't have the confirmed result for some time. Electoral College doesn't vote until December 14 so I figure it could go on until then if we're really unlucky. As I recall the Supreme Court called a halt to proceedings in the 2000 election (the last one that was subject to a lengthy legal battle) because it was starting to bump against the Electoral College meeting to vote and I can't see this SCOTUS taking a different view.
nlogax
Established Member
Should be interesting when Wall St opens...nothing spooks the markets more than uncertainty.
WelshBluebird
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Even if Biden does scrape a victory - I don't think it can be ignored that a huge portion of the US electorate saw what Trump has been upto for the last 4 years and decided "Yep, I want more of that". That I find particularly chilling.
Scotrail314209
Established Member
This.
Why are people continuing to vote in this complete and utter moron. If he wins it’s a huge step back for everyone in the world. I fear deeply for people I know in America.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Doing a bit of number crunching.... Based on the Associated Press predictions... 270 college votes needed to (just) win. With Arizona (marginal but being called for Biden), Biden appears to have 238 votes in the bag. If he can win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan - which is plausible - that gives him another 32 votes, so exactly 270. Not exactly a comfortable win, and I don't know what the chances are of it getting screwed if - say - an electoral college voter doesn't show up or votes the wrong way. If Biden can also win one of Georgia or Pennsylvania (possible but not at all certain) or North Carolina (looking unlikely) then he's won comfortably.
Oh yeah for sure. The big hope had been that this would be something of a scathing rebuke of the Republican party with the Presidency being lost by a strong Electoral College (and popular vote) showing, keeping (or increasing control of) the House and retaking the Senate.
As it stands Dems will probably keep the House, may still take the Presidency by a whisker (but will win the popular vote) but are very unlikely take Senate. So if I'm a Republican I'm thinking "our formula is still working pretty well actually". So America is stuck pretty much exactly where it was before the election and if anything the Republicans have no reason not to dig in even further. Expect their 2024 candidate to be far more Trumpian than it might seemed likely just a few weeks ago.
It would be very on brand for 2020 for there to be a faithless elector at the Electoral College who swings it for Trump...
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