New 4-tier system for England

[Silver Cobra]

After yesterday's announcement of London and parts of Essex and Herts moving to tier 3 tonight, do people think any other areas will move to tier 3 during this weeks 2 week review.
The local news paper in bucks keeps banging on about bucks going into tier 3

Things aren't looking too good here in Central Bedfordshire. In the last week, we've jumped from being at 90.8 per 100K to 216.2 per 100K. Based on what's been said by councils in current tier 3 areas in the North of one of the 'requirements' for being put into tier 3 being a rate of over 200 per 100K, that means we could potentially be entering tier 3 tomorrow. It seems the main source of the big rise in the last week is the Barton-le-Clay area, which has a rate of 948.3 per 100K, followed by the Westoning/Harlington/Silsoe area at 577 per 100K.

**EDIT: I must admit that the figures I posted are from December 10th, as the government dashboard is 5 days behind. However, I doubt there's been much of a fall in the numbers between the 10th and today, and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they've increased (which the BBC indicate it has, with the rate on Decemebr 11th being 248.3 per 100K).

 

[Crossover]

After yesterday's announcement of London and parts of Essex and Herts moving to tier 3 tonight, do people think any other areas will move to tier 3 during this weeks 2 week review.
The local news paper in bucks keeps banging on about bucks going into tier 3

In a similar vain, do we think anywhere will go down a Tier as part of the review (either 3 to 2 or 2 to 1) - it feels fairly unlikely!

 

[david1212]

In a similar vain, do we think anywhere will go down a Tier as part of the review (either 3 to 2 or 2 to 1) - it feels fairly unlikely!

IMO in a word NO.
1 - too late to make much of a change for hospitality based businesses
2 - a spike in cases from the start of January right across the UK is all but inevitable, the variable is by how much.

 

[Envy123]

Cambridge trains definitely well-loaded throughout pre-Covid. But not at present.

Understood - I kept seeing Cambridge/Peterborough/King's Lynn services packed in the evening peak. But now, they're a lot emptier.

That's the sort of commute people love to hate... to love once in an odd while but definitely not every day week in week out.

Depends on where the office is in London. I wouldn't mind commuting daily but it does help a lot that I work near Farringdon station. I'd only be able to handle places like Victoria if it was only 1-2 days a week.

 

[DelayRepay]

I read that polls suggest over half of people want the Christmas relaxation to be cancelled.

So straight away, 50% of the population will not be travelling. This must reduce the risk somewhat.

I am going to see my mum at Christmas, come what may. In my four decades on this earth, I have never set out to break the law. But I will if I have to. I'll just make up some lie about Support Bubbles or something.

What might be helpful is some actual sensible advice. All I've seen is nonsense like sit at separate tables, and don't put a dish of veg on the dinner table in case you spread Covid via the shared spoon.

 

[marty1977]

I read that polls suggest over half of people want the Christmas relaxation to be cancelled.

So straight away, 50% of the population will not be travelling. This must reduce the risk somewhat.

I am going to see my mum at Christmas, come what may. In my four decades on this earth, I have never set out to break the law. But I will if I have to. I'll just make up some lie about Support Bubbles or something.

What might be helpful is some actual sensible advice. All I've seen is nonsense like sit at separate tables, and don't put a dish of veg on the dinner table in case you spread Covid via the shared spoon.

I've just checked the yougov website and that survey consisted of 3856 participants so yo suggest that 57% of the population is on favour of keeping restrictions is fantasy at best and down right lies at worst.

 

[RPI]

I think if they "cancel" Christmas this will be the final straw for most, including me!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Sky news are actually reporting the most likely outcome of this afternoon's discussion is that the current easement will remain but tougher messaging about safe behaviour or the window will be reduced to Xmas Eve, Xmas Day & Boxing Day. Let's not all jump to doom and gloom conclusions just yet.

Better run some buses and trains on Boxing Day then!

 

[marty1977]

Better run some buses and trains on Boxing Day then!

I think you know as well as I do that's not going to happen.

 

[DB]

I read that polls suggest over half of people want the Christmas relaxation to be cancelled.

So straight away, 50% of the population will not be travelling. This must reduce the risk somewhat.

I am going to see my mum at Christmas, come what may. In my four decades on this earth, I have never set out to break the law. But I will if I have to. I'll just make up some lie about Support Bubbles or something.

What might be helpful is some actual sensible advice. All I've seen is nonsense like sit at separate tables, and don't put a dish of veg on the dinner table in case you spread Covid via the shared spoon.

What people say they want and what they actually do are getting ever further apart in this situation.

 

[Andyh82]

It's one of those situations where the popular voice (be that people on social media, your Piers Morgan types etc) is always opposite to what the government are doing

So today its 'Boris is stupid, they need to cancel christmas'
Tomorrow when Nicola no doubt does cancel it it'll be 'Great leadership once again, better than bozo'
The next day when Boris cancels it it'll be 'disgraceful, yet another U turn, what about people's mental health, i'm going to do whatever I want anyway'

 

[brad465]

It's one of those situations where the popular voice (be that people on social media, your Piers Morgan types etc) is always opposite to what the government are doing

The next day when Boris cancels it it'll be 'disgraceful, yet another U turn, what about people's mental health, i'm going to do whatever I want anyway'

If this U-turn over Christmas rules happens, it will arguably be the biggest/most embarrassing/most damaging U-turn of the year from the Government, and given how much competition there is for that award that's quite something. It may also lead to political opinion polling slumps and outrage from the backbenchers of levels that could see Johnson go earlier than the Spring as currently expected (although he'll still get to 2021, even if only just).

 

[Domh245]

'Cancelling' christmas is rather unworkable - people will be doing what they want and the police won't be able to stop them, it just changes people from thinking that "I've obeyed all the rules so far, I'll keep on obeying them" to "I broke the rules at christmas and it was fine, I'll break them again"

If they had any sense, they'll heavily push information on ways to make it 'safer' - isolate as long as possible before going, if going on public transport go off peak, etc. Sadly the government(s) appear to be rather lacking sense and I fully expect that they'll announce a cancellation of the 'christmas easing' for all the effect that it'll have

 

[Spartacus]

If there's a u-turn now there's a lot of people who are going to be very angry indeed, and not just because they've already got the food in and kids hyped up for family visiting. There's places that have been under serious restrictions of one form or another since July, that now have R rates well below 1 and corresponding plummeting cases, but the talk of cancelling Christmas gatherings is being driven by increasing cases in areas that haven't had to suffer not seeing families or friends for months on end. Those that have done the hard work, have cases under control in their areas (regardless of current tier, which means little) will be livid if they're told they have to cancel festivities because cases are up elsewhere, when they had to have half the year cancelled when elsewhere was free of the harshest measures.

There's been talk that Labour's 'Red Wall' has been largely lost for good. It'll be rebuilt in double quick time if Boris renages on the promise of Christmas bubbles.

Personally I think almost the whole country should have gone into a Tier 3 based on the previous local lockdown restrictions (so giving hospitality a chance) then we might not be worries about this now.

 

[Crossover]

Beerhouses (independent pub company based in Dewsbury, West Yorkshire) have put a "stake in the ground" with their update today

Trading Update - Beerhouses

15th December 2020 It is with a heavy heart & great sadness that Beerhouses has had to make the decision to not open the pubs until the hospitality industry is allowed to open restriction free as opposed to the rules for Tier 2 or Tier 3. Therefore, irrespective of the Tier announcement this week we

www.beerhouses.co.uk

It is with a heavy heart & great sadness that Beerhouses has had to make the decision to not open the pubs until the hospitality industry is allowed to open restriction free as opposed to the rules for Tier 2 or Tier 3. Therefore, irrespective of the Tier announcement this week we will not be opening again this year.


After much consideration of the restrictions, the figures and the way the government are handling this pandemic we feel we have no other choice. The way pubs work and for the health & wellbeing of our team we cannot be on tenterhooks every fortnight waiting to see what Tier we are going into and opening and closing at short notice.


Pubs don’t work like that and Real ale definitely doesn’t work like that!


We have investigated the ‘substantial / plated table meal’ way to be open and have found that this is not viable, it would only jeopardise our business further as well as creating unnecessary food waste.


We therefore have decided our only option is to cut our losses & stay closed until the restrictions are lifted and we can trade normally as pubs, we hope that you understand the reasons behind this very hard decision.


We want to apologise to our local breweries, suppliers & contractors, taxi firms, musicians, charities and other associated businesses that we will not be able to support through the next few months but we feel we will have a better chance of survival if we do this.


We would also like to thank our dedicated team of staff who have worked tirelessly throughout the summer, conforming to all the added guidelines and all extra work that was put upon them to keep everyone safe – they did a fantastic job in very demanding circumstances and lastly…


A massive thank you to all our loyal customers who have supported us over the years and throughout the nightmare of 2020, we truly hope you understand the decision we have had to make.


We wish you all a very merry Christmas and (fingers crossed) a very Happy New Year!


Please continue to support local pubs and breweries where you can and we hope to see you soon.


Beerhouses

 

[Jamesrob637]

If there's a u-turn now there's a lot of people who are going to be very angry indeed, and not just because they've already got the food in and kids hyped up for family visiting. There's places that have been under serious restrictions of one form or another since July, that now have R rates well below 1 and corresponding plummeting cases, but the talk of cancelling Christmas gatherings is being driven by increasing cases in areas that haven't had to suffer not seeing families or friends for months on end. Those that have done the hard work, have cases under control in their areas (regardless of current tier, which means little) will be livid if they're told they have to cancel festivities because cases are up elsewhere, when they had to have half the year cancelled when elsewhere was free of the harshest measures.

There's been talk that Labour's 'Red Wall' has been largely lost for good. It'll be rebuilt in double quick time if Boris renages on the promise of Christmas bubbles.

Personally I think almost the whole country should have gone into a Tier 3 based on the previous local lockdown restrictions (so giving hospitality a chance) then we might not be worries about this now.

Tier 3 wouldn't have given hospitality much opportunity. Do you mean everywhere should have entered T2? Then the goalposts could've been moved either way after a while.

 

[Spartacus]

Tier 3 wouldn't have given hospitality much opportunity. Do you mean everywhere should have entered T2? Then the goalposts could've been moved either way after a while.

No, a tier 3 with less hard hospitality restrictions, allowing some to remain open, pub restrictions more akin to tier 2, and tier 2 one being something of a midway point between the current 1 and 2. There's a plenty of evidence to show premises aren't a breeding ground for covid, unlike bustling high streets, and there's no need for such draconian measures.

 

[initiation]

So far it seems just increased advice for Christmas... A pleasant change from mandating something. I hope this sticks.

I've just checked the yougov website and that survey consisted of 3856 participants so to suggest that 57% of the population is in favour of keeping restrictions is fantasy at best and down right lies at worst.

If the 3856 people were selected to be vaguely representative of the overall population then that is easily enough to get a pretty good confidence level. It's not like for these sort of polls they just run it on twitter for a few hours.

Of course, the way the question is worded etc.. is very important but that is independent of the sample size.

 

[DB]

So far it seems just increased advice for Christmas... A pleasant change from mandating something. I hope this sticks.


If the 3856 people were selected to be vaguely representative of the overall population then that is easily enough to get a pretty good confidence level. It's not like for these sort of polls they just run it on twitter for a few hours.

Of course, the way the question is worded etc.. is very important but that is independent of the sample size.

Yougov surveys are mostly done by people who are happy to spend ages doing a survey and have plenty of time on their hands - which tends to mean certain demographics are very much over represented.

 

[JamesT]

Yougov surveys are mostly done by people who are happy to spend ages doing a survey and have plenty of time on their hands - which tends to mean certain demographics are very much over represented.

As with all surveying organisations, they will then weight the responses to get a result that is more representative of the population as a whole. https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/ has an overview.
Whenever I’ve seen reports on their political polling they’re usually one of the most accurate, so I’m assuming their methodology works in general.

 

[Richard Scott]

As with all surveying organisations, they will then weight the responses to get a result that is more representative of the population as a whole. https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/ has an overview.
Whenever I’ve seen reports on their political polling they’re usually one of the most accurate, so I’m assuming their methodology works in general.

I would imagine political polls are closer to the truth as the question cannot be skewed. Polls about current affairs can be skewed by asking question in a particular way. Also these polls may have an element of people answering with what they think is the most acceptable answer but isn't what they actually do in their everyday lives.

 

[initiation]

I would imagine political polls are closer to the truth as the question cannot be skewed. Polls about current affairs can be skewed by asking question in a particular way. Also these polls may have an element of people answering with what they think is the most acceptable answer but isn't what they actually do in their everyday lives.

Exactly. But that has nothing to do with the sample size.

If you ask the questions
1. Should we forcibly close businesses for a flu like illness with a 99.9% survival rate in most of the population?
Vs
2. Should we lockdown to save the NHS?

You will get different answers.

 

[DelayRepay]

There's been talk that Labour's 'Red Wall' has been largely lost for good. It'll be rebuilt in double quick time if Boris renages on the promise of Christmas bubbles.

Personally I think almost the whole country should have gone into a Tier 3 based on the previous local lockdown restrictions (so giving hospitality a chance) then we might not be worries about this now.

I'm not too sure about the red wall being rebuilt. It seems this debate really took off yesterday when the Labour leader announced that he thought the Christmas plans should be cancelled yesterday.

I think the real problem is we've jumped around between different sets of rules, tiers, lockdowns, different types of tiers, without really fully understanding what works. In my view this comes back to the failures of Test and Trace. If it was working properly, then there would be data showing what type of settings were contributing to the increase in cases. Hospitality is bearing the brunt of restrictions, but my local pub landlady says she's never been asked to supply contact tracing data, and neither have any of the other pubs in the area based on her conversations with other landlords.

I do not wish to see schools closed or moved online, but in my opinion they are responsible for a lot of the current spread and I am shocked that the government is actually threatening legal action against schools that were planning to close a few days early for Christmas, while at the same time moving London into tier 3 with such urgency that it was done outside of the normal/expected review cycle.

 

[Bantamzen]

According to Sky News they reckon 57% of Britons are in favour of cancelling the Christmas easement of restrictions. I'd love to know where they get this BS from!!

Its come from the Ministry of Information, aka You.gov!

 

[NorthOxonian]

As with all surveying organisations, they will then weight the responses to get a result that is more representative of the population as a whole. https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/ has an overview.
Whenever I’ve seen reports on their political polling they’re usually one of the most accurate, so I’m assuming their methodology works in general.

If their data is systematically biased, then there's only so much weighting can fix. They will weight for things like age, politics, and region, but if they don't weight for working from home despite people like that being disproportionately represented, their polls could still be off by a long way.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not too sure about the red wall being rebuilt. It seems this debate really took off yesterday when the Labour leader announced that he thought the Christmas plans should be cancelled yesterday.

I think the real problem is we've jumped around between different sets of rules, tiers, lockdowns, different types of tiers, without really fully understanding what works. In my view this comes back to the failures of Test and Trace. If it was working properly, then there would be data showing what type of settings were contributing to the increase in cases. Hospitality is bearing the brunt of restrictions, but my local pub landlady says she's never been asked to supply contact tracing data, and neither have any of the other pubs in the area based on her conversations with other landlords.

I do not wish to see schools closed or moved online, but in my opinion they are responsible for a lot of the current spread and I am shocked that the government is actually threatening legal action against schools that were planning to close a few days early for Christmas, while at the same time moving London into tier 3 with such urgency that it was done outside of the normal/expected review cycle.

That doesn't surprise me, given the hospitality venues I've visited have followed guidance and groups have generally been well separated. And it's not as though the tracers are likely to experience the same problems getting through to established businesses as they evidently do contacting individuals. The only conclusion is that hospitality is being made a scapegoat - an impression only strengthened by the juxtaposition of Government on the one hand, hysterically threatening councils for closing schools for xmas a week earlier, whilst at the same time rushing London into tier 3.

As for the rebuilding of the red wall, I'm not massively convinced either, given Labour's supine position on all this. Hopefully one long term result of this will be the strengthening of pro devolution regional parties across England, but we shall see.

For the timebeing, it appears that the Government is taking a more nuanced approach to the siren calls over xmas, so hopefully they will maintain that approach.

 

[initiation]

If their data is systematically biased, then there's only so much weighting can fix. They will weight for things like age, politics, and region, but if they don't weight for working from home despite people like that being disproportionately represented, their polls could still be off by a long way.

Absolutely, but I am sure they probably have factored in socio-economic status. Even if not asked directly, the type of job somebody does will strongly link to the chance of them working from home.
To note: I work from home full time but am bitterly against further restrictions.
The margin will be +- X% but for the question asked, the answers are in the right ball park.

The only conclusion is that hospitality is being made a scapegoat

This. They know this yet the message is spread through the media. Meanwhile hospital infections and those in schools are glossed over. I hope every MP who continues to support such measures is barred from every pub in their constituency.

 

[duncanp]

This. They know this yet the message is spread through the media. Meanwhile hospital infections and those in schools are glossed over. I hope every MP who continues to support such measures is barred from every pub in their constituency.

Precisely.

The upturn in infections in London & the South East started during the second lockdown, so you can't blame hospitality for that, but you can still make them a scapegoat.

Whatever you might think about Tim Martin and his views on Brexit, he is no starting to slag the government off over their handling of COVID-19, with articles on the Wetherspoon website, and in the magazine which is distributed in the pubs.

Hopefully this will influence enough people to change their opinion about lockdowns etc, so that whenthe legislation comes up for renewal at the end of January, the government is forced to set out a roadmap or pathway back to some semblance of normality, as a condition of extending the measures.

 

[DJH1971]

A number of London boroughs (amongst others) have already started to shut down schools.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Dec 2020 ==


maybe. Police in several areas have been operating checkpoints and enquiring about reasons for travel. However, the regulations currently in force do not prohibit travel within England regardless of tier; you are within your rights to thank the police for their advice and continue on their way.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Dec 2020 ==


It is an offence for residents of elsewhere in the United Kingdom, or County Donegal in the ROI, to enter Scotland. Reasonable excuses apply, as to which see Schedule 7A to SSI 2020/344. Police Scotland may enforce this by fixed penalty notice, reporting to the procurator fiscal, or arrest.

It is an offence for anyone resident in a tier 3 area of England, or a tier 3 or 4 area of Scotland, or Northern Ireland, to enter Wales. Reasonable excuses apply, as to which see section 9 of SI 2020/W276. The Heddlu may enforce this by fixed penalty notice, reporting to the CPS, or arrest.

Still feeling a bit jittery and I previously mentioned in a related thread that I would be asked for my managers name and also those I was going to see if travelling for work purposes.

And the mixed messages in the media continue with some implying that travel to and from a Tier 3 area is illegal and others saying it is not the case.

 

[DB]

Still feeling a bit jittery and I previously mentioned in a related thread that I would be asked for my managers name and also those I was going to see if travelling for work purposes.

And the mixed messages in the media continue with some implying that travel to and from a Tier 3 area is illegal and others saying it is not the case.

There is lots of nonsense going around - but the reality is that travel is only discouraged by guidance, and there is no law preventing it. Therefore the police have no grounds to try to prevent anyone from doing so. They can advise not to, but nobody has to follow that advice. Provided you stick by the rules in force in whichever is the higher tier of either the one you live in or the one you are going to, you are complying with the law.

I've been to several tier 3 areas within the past few days. I have seen some police about at stations (quite a number at Leeds), but they were just observing and weren't challenging or questioning anyone.

And the bit about being asked for manager's name is just nonsense, and typical of the type of thing which those who think they now have some power like to make up.