Brexit matters

[Journeyman]

I think that’s very much a distinct possibility.
Trump losing was a complete game changer as far as Boris was concerned (although I’m sure that he saw it coming).
Boris blows with the wind and that’s exactly what he’s doing now.
He’s got his wet finger in the air and he’s having a good think about what the best move for him in all of this is next.
That tactic has certainly worked for him up to this point in his rise to the top, so I don’t see him changing his methods on that front.

Yeah, I think Johnson would have used a US trade deal as an example of how we don't need the EU, and would have gone for no deal on that basis. I think a lot of compromises were made in the aftermath of Trump's defeat.

Sad to say, at the end of this, I have far more admiration for the EU than I do for our own government. They've shown enormous patience and restraint in dealing with a petulant, inconsistent and extremely awkward bunch of idiots who spent ages trying to work out what they wanted. If it was me, I'd have told the UK where to shove it about three years ago. When you consider what a monumental waste this has all been, given that we're emerging poorer, weaker and less free than we were before, the EU have treated us with far more patience and good faith than we deserve.

 

[21C101]

I think that’s very much a distinct possibility.
Trump losing was a complete game changer as far as Boris was concerned (although I’m sure that he saw it coming).
Boris blows with the wind and that’s exactly what he’s doing now.
He’s got his wet finger in the air and he’s having a good think about what the best move for him in all of this is next.
That tactic has certainly worked for him up to this point in his rise to the top, so I don’t see him changing his methods on that front.

Aside from the fact that Biden was the governments preferred winner, the idea that Boris could have used such a strategy to deceive Bill Cash and the ERG is crazy.

They and their team of lawyers have been reviewing it forensically for the last few days. If anyone was going to find hidden bodies it was them.

It is telling that, a few fringe cranks aside, the only people claiming it is a poor deal are remainers.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Aside from the fact that Biden was the governments preferred winner, the idea that Boris could have used such a strategy to deceive Bill Cash and the ERG is crazy.

They and their team of lawyers have been reviewing it forensically for the last few days. If anyone was going to find hidden bodies it was them.

It is telling that, a few fringe cranks aside, the only people claiming it is a poor deal are remainers.

It has to be a poor deal? I’ve spent months hearing that no deal is what “everyone voted for”? Or have we changed again?

 

[37424]

It has to be a poor deal? I’ve spent months hearing that no deal is what “everyone voted for”? Or have we changed again?

In terms of what Boris wanted I think its quite a good deal and Boris I think has had to push really hard to the wire to get this deal out of the EU. As for whether he would have done a deal if Trump got back in probably not, although I think there are increasingly more in the Tory party who realise Trump is an erratic loon that you need to be wary of.

I'm not a Hard Remanier, I was always willing to accept leave with a deal, and am prepared to give this deal a ago. Working for manufacturing company for many years I still have concerns for manufacturing and whether some of the car sector in particular will still bail through the extra work and cost of not being in the Customs Union, and unfortunately Brexit come at a bad time in the Motor industry with them having to decide which plants will make electric vehicles in future, and then there is also the issue of reduced access for services.

 

[Journeyman]

It is telling that, a few fringe cranks aside, the only people claiming it is a poor deal are remainers.

We've spent over four years negotiating a deal that objectively makes our position worse than it was before.

 

[37424]

We've spent over four years negotiating a deal that objectively makes our position worse than it was before.

But given we were leaving the EU that was always going to be the case, and the minimal damage position of Single Market and Cuistom's Unions was never going to be accepted by many Brexiteers.

 

[21C101]

We've spent over four years negotiating a deal that objectively makes our position worse than it was before.

You go through a lot of discomfort and disruption when you take the decision to have a baby. Few see it as anything other than an acceptable price to pay for what you gain.

 

[Ianno87]

You go through a lot of discomfort and disruption when you take the decision to have a baby. Few see it as anything other than an acceptable price to pay for what you gain.

OK, so what, exactly, are we to gain?

 

[37424]

OK, so what, exactly, are we to gain?

Free of a chunk of EU regulation and an ability to do our own trade deals plus the elephant in the room (freedom of movement), of course of how much benefit those are going to be verses the disadvantages remains to be seen

 

[nlogax]

It was widely reported that Boris was in 'wait and see' mode during the US election as the result would influence his final direction re. EU negotiations. No secret about that and it was obvious to everyone that a no deal was in the offing if Trump won.

As for the deal itself, of course it's better than no deal but compared to other deals with the EU it is inferior, probably because the UK blinked right at the moment it needed to focus. Anton Spisak studied the final deal and published a fairly compelling analysis of why this could have been fair bit better than what we've now got, how it happened and what needs to happen next. My view is that it's still an achievement that it happened at all considering Johnson's dithering and posturing and the very narrow window of time that was available.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1343519072416362498.html

Having now taken a few days to digest the detail of the UK-EU agreement, here's a couple of observations from me on the deal, what it means, how we got here, & where it might take future UK-EU relations.

 

[Journeyman]

OK, so what, exactly, are we to gain?

No-one has ever been able to properly answer this question. The list of what we lose, however, seems to be getting longer every day.

 

[edwin_m]

Free of a chunk of EU regulation

Do you have any specific regulations in mind, with indication of how being free of them would help us?

an ability to do our own trade deals

Deals with some remote economies go nowhere near repairing the economic damage of making trade more difficult with our nearest neighbours.

the elephant in the room (freedom of movement)

Which has been shown to be a mutual economic benefit, so getting rid of it is a good thing only for those who oppose immigration on principle.

 

[nlogax]

No-one has ever been able to properly answer this question. The list of what we lose, however, seems to be getting longer every day.

Let's take a now fairly well known eel farmer as an early example of the mass realisation that will occur through 2021.

https://www.indy100.com/news/brexit-leave-eu-deal-regret-b1780258

A report from Sky News about an eel farmer has gone viral after the man in the story admitted his deep regret over voting for Brexit which is now jeopardising his business.
Peter Wood, who is an exporter of glass eels from Gloucester, voted to leave the European Union in 2016 but with the news of Boris Johnson’s latest deal is suddenly having a moment of realisation.

 

[alex397]

No-one has ever been able to properly answer this question. The list of what we lose, however, seems to be getting longer every day.

I’ve also yet to hear a proper answer myself as well. The only benefits I see are for the disaster capitalists, and more opportunities for money launderers.

I do accept it could be a benefit to have our own trade deals, but I’m sceptical if we can ever get anything better than what we do with the EU.

 

[Ianno87]

Free of a chunk of EU regulation

Which we still have to abide by if we want to trade with the EU (but have no say in them any more)

and an ability to do our own trade deals

We did already- as part of the EU.

plus the elephant in the room (freedom of movement)

Very much worse. The diversity and skills of the people I call colleagues and friends must now be drawn from a smaller pool.

It's only an "elephant in the room" if you're a bit xenophobic and/or enjoy scapegoating your own failures on others.

 

[37424]

Do you have any specific regulations in mind, with indication of how being free of them would help us?

Deals with some remote economies go nowhere near repairing the economic damage of making trade more difficult with our nearest neighbours.

Which has been shown to be a mutual economic benefit, so getting rid of it is a good thing only for those who oppose immigration on principle.

I'm trying to look at it from a leavers viewpoint not really trying to justify it.

But on Trade deals there may be some benefit to it, in terms of perhaps some trade deals with countries the EU doesn't currently have a deal, and in terms of countries where there is already an EU trade deal we are unlikely to get significantly better terms, but they could be better tailored to our market.

As for Immigration I used to work with a Polish lady in my office and she is a very bright women, in an office of highly educated people she made us look thick so in that sense the UK was lucky to have her, but where she lived there was a very high concentration of Eastern Europeans and she could understand that there was some resentment of the numbers from the native population, although she did feel very hurt by the referendum result.

Which we still have to abide by if we want to trade with the EU (but have no say in them any more)



We did already- as part of the EU.




Very much worse. The diversity and skills of the people I call colleagues and friends must now be drawn from a smaller pool.

It's only an "elephant in the room" if you're a bit xenophobic and/or enjoy scapegoating your own failures on others.

Don't try and round on me I am a Remainer trying to look at it from a leavers viewpoint, but I do understand some of their viewpoints to a degree, as for EU legislation yes there is some we will still have to follow but also some we won't.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm trying to look at it from a leavers viewpoint not really trying to justify it.

Trying to see the other's point of view is good, but helpful if you could point out you are doing this rather than simply re-stating their rather weak argument.

 

[najaB]

It's reported in the Guardian that the deal will do significant damage to the Scottish fishing industry, with quotas of the most important species actually going down, rather than up.

Scotland faces cuts to cod and haddock fisheries under Brexit deal | Brexit | The Guardian

Scottish government analysis shows rises in fish quota in only five of 13 fishing areas around Scotland

amp.theguardian.com

 

[alex397]

It's reported in the Guardian that the deal will do significant damage to the Scottish fishing industry, with quotas of the most important species actually going down, rather than up.

Scotland faces cuts to cod and haddock fisheries under Brexit deal | Brexit | The Guardian

Scottish government analysis shows rises in fish quota in only five of 13 fishing areas around Scotland

amp.theguardian.com

Considering so much emphasis has been put on the fishing industry, it would be a shame for this to happen.

 

[Spamcan81]

Considering so much emphasis has been put on the fishing industry, it would be a shame for this to happen.

Johnson cares not a jot about the UK fishing industry. He just pretended to care so as to appear to be defending our plucky trawler crews against the EU behemoth. The vast majority of the British public have no idea how the fishing industry works.

 

[najaB]

Johnson cares not a jot about the UK...

You could have ended your post there from everything I've seen to date...

 

[37424]

Considering so much emphasis has been put on the fishing industry, it would be a shame for this to happen.

I think it depends who you believe and it looks like there are some gains and some loses supposidly at the request of Scottish ministers which may well not please some Fisherman, and apparently they cannot swap catches with EU boats now.

Some price had to be paid to get Tariff free access with the EU and Fish was it

 

[najaB]

Some price had to be paid to get Tariff free access with the EU and Fish was

"Retain", not "get".

 

[Journeyman]

"Retain", not "get".

This is a very important distinction. We've retained some things, got precious little, and lost a hell of a lot.

 

[SS4]

This is a very important distinction. We've retained some things, got precious little, and lost a hell of a lot.

And few, if any, of those gains are tangible.

It's nearly always easier to sell a dream than to maintain the status quo.

 

[Spamcan81]

I think it depends who you believe and it looks like there are some gains and some loses supposidly at the request of Scottish ministers which may well not please some Fisherman, and apparently they cannot swap catches with EU boats now.

Some price had to be paid to get Tariff free access with the EU and Fish was it

We already had tariff free, barrier free trade with the EU. We now have barriers so how on earth this deal can be seen as a good thing is beyond me.

 

[37424]

We already had tariff free, barrier free trade with the EU. We now have barriers so how on earth this deal can be seen as a good thing is beyond me.

But at the risk of sounding like a Leave voter we did vote to leave. Yes there were a lot of lies told by vote Leave but Remain wasn't exactly lie free either.

A few weeks ago I was downbeat at the prospect of No Deal, now I am reasonably optimistic about this deal, time for the MP's to vote for it and move on.

 

[najaB]

A few weeks ago I was downbeat at the prospect of No Deal, now I am reasonably optimistic about this deal, time for the MP's to vote for it and move on.

I'm also confident that this deal will pass, but it really isn't a great deal compared to what we had - and more importantly, what we could have achieved.

By analogy, I might be satisfied that my team got a draw in an important match, but I'm not going to be happy given that they were up five goals to nil at half time.

 

[Spamcan81]

But at the risk of sounding like a Leave voter we did vote to leave. Yes there were a lot of lies told by vote Leave but Remain wasn't exactly lie free either.

A few weeks ago I was downbeat at the prospect of No Deal, now I am reasonably optimistic about this deal, time for the MP's to vote for it and move on.

Yes we did vote to leave and we could have had a Norway style deal - as touted initially by Farage and others - which would have kept us in the Single Market and thus tariff and barrier free. This deal is better than no deal but in the opinion of many, it is not a good deal. According to business leaders it will herald the biggest imposition of red tape for 50 years. I'm waiting for someone to explain how this will be good for business.

I'm also confident that this deal will pass, but it really isn't a great deal compared to what we had - and more importantly, what we could have achieved.

By analogy, I might be satisfied that my team got a draw in an important match, but I'm not going to be happy given that they were up five goals to nil at half time.

But Johnson says it's a "terrific" deal so it must be true if he says so.

 

[37424]

Yes we did vote to leave and we could have had a Norway style deal - as touted initially by Farage and others - which would have kept us in the Single Market and thus tariff and barrier free. This deal is better than no deal but in the opinion of many, it is not a good deal. According to business leaders it will herald the biggest imposition of red tape for 50 years. I'm waiting for someone to explain how this will be good for business.



But Johnson says it's a "terrific" deal so it must be true if he says so.

Indeed we could have had a Norway style deal, but given the general hardening of position by the Brexiteers over the last 4 years, and the Hard Brexiteer Government we now have, that was never going to happen, I think the deal we have is really the best that could be achieved with this Government, and if you want people to blame for this position, Then I would pick Labour for electing Corbyn as Leader and their nonsense position on Brexit at the last election, along with a Teresa May Government which didn't have the numbers to do anything especially with a collection of Brexiteers that wanted a Hard Brexit and Remainers that didn't want to leave at all, along with many Remainers in the other parties that didn't accept leave at all.

In some respects you have to admire Boris because he has got done what he said on the Tin, even if that Tin is not to your liking