New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[kristiang85]

Be prepared for some brutal looking death numbers today, which the media will no doubt whip up into a frenzy - there will be a lot of lag deaths today from the long weeekend, and Scotland hasn't reported since the 31st December.

Overall the trend should still be quite flat though.

 

[yorksrob]

They're on borrowed time.

People will give them the benefit of the doubt for a few weeks while the elderly are vaccinated, but it won't last.

 

[jkkne]

I've got two degrees covering ethics, statistics, computer modelling and optimisation. I'm by no means an expert in the field, but I suspect there are a lot of people in SAGE or supporting SAGE who aren't any better qualified or specialised. I understand that Neil Ferguson is a physicist by training for example.

Either way, like many people on this thread and forum, I've got enough background to understand what's being put in front of me without having to blindly trust it. I've also been around academics and doctors long enough to not automatically trust everything they say just because they have a fancy title. A huge amount of what is happening at the moment is having the label "science" attached, but isn't really backed by anything more than blind panic, gut instinct, and some very very large egos and god complexes.

It's not necessary for you believe us when we talk on here - we aren't government advisers and nobody is going to do a single thing based on what we say. Please don't assume we are idiots or pointlessly try to bait us though.

At what point did I bait you? I simply asked on what basis you pontificate and you've given me said basis.

 

[Cdd89]

As a question of politics, this is something that the government will get more trouble for than the short run harms of lockdown.

On this we certainly agree. If I were a politician on balance I’d be locking down too. Though do remember that Trump got a significant amount of the vote share with his unmitigated nonsense about the virus; it may not be as clear cut as we both think.

I do think the current government have no sense of self preservation though since the choices are either acting early to lock down or fighting the lockdown narrative; locking down when it’s absolutely inevitable makes them look slow and dithering.

 

[Watershed]

I am afraid it is you who are incorrect.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6/2020-03-26 lists the reasonable excuses for leaving home between 26 March and 2 April (though materially equivalent restrictions were in place until at least mid-May), and posting a letter or parcel isn’t on the list.

I would have to agree with others on this point. Going to the Post Office wasn't a specifically enumerated reasonable excuse at the time, but POs were specifically named as a business that could remain open to the public.

This clearly indicated that the intention was for the public to be able to use their services and indeed this oversight in the hasty drafting of the Regulations was later rectified.

I doubt that there have been, or will be any, prosecutions brought before the Courts for the supposed crime of going to post a letter. Possibly a few FPNs issued by (charitably) "out of touch" coppers but they are a law unto themselves in any case.

 

[island]

Keep trying. As a very simple example, it was perfectly reasonable to send money via a letter to someone who needed it or provisions to them via a parcel and you could use a Post Office to do this.

Judging from this and your previous posts, it is clear you are of a fixed opinion on this and I will focus my limited time elsewhere than trying to convince you otherwise.

 

[Crossover]

Does anyone know if the restrictions force closure of car washes (either wholesale, or of a 'type') to close? They were all shut at the last lockdown, but within a week of my commute in these months, which I will be continuing to undertake, my car can go from pristine to caked due to all the salt/grit on the roads.

Yes, I can do it myself if push comes to shove, but of course I would rather not with the weather as it is!

 

[Mojo]

Does anyone know if the restrictions force closure of car washes (either wholesale, or of a 'type') to close? They were all shut at the last lockdown, but within a week of my commute in these months, which I will be continuing to undertake, my car can go from pristine to caked due to all the salt/grit on the roads.

Yes, I can do it myself if push comes to shove, but of course I would rather not with the weather as it is!

One near me has remained open but they have covered the fence around the site with opaque sheets and have put a sign on the gate advising that it is appointment only and to call a number when they arrive. No idea if legit or not! Also saw two enterprising chaps stood next to the do it yourself wash at Asda’s petrol station.

 

[Class 33]

Be prepared for some brutal looking death numbers today, which the media will no doubt whip up into a frenzy - there will be a lot of lag deaths today from the long weeekend, and Scotland hasn't reported since the 31st December.

Overall the trend should still be quite flat though.

Unfortunately yes. And I expect The Mirror will publish some headline such as "xxx Coronavirus deaths today, in highest Tuesday rise since April" as per usual.

Just wish the effects of all the vaccinations which started last month would hurry up and start kicking in now and the hospitalisations/numbers in hospital/deaths stats starts falling week on week. It just can't come soon enough.

 

[bb21]

Be prepared for some brutal looking death numbers today, which the media will no doubt whip up into a frenzy - there will be a lot of lag deaths today from the long weeekend, and Scotland hasn't reported since the 31st December.

Overall the trend should still be quite flat though.

If that were the case then surely the 7-day moving average will take care of it?

 

[kristiang85]

If that were the case then surely the 7-day moving average will take care of it?

Yes, most of us know that, but the media don't use that in their headlines.

 

[island]

No sign yet of the SI with the new regulations announced last night, although there has been an SI published allowing Network Rail to close 7 level crossings in Suffolk.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Unfortunately yes. And I expect The Mirror will publish some headline such as "xxx Coronavirus deaths today, in highest Tuesday rise since April" as per usual.

Just wish the effects of all the vaccinations which started last month would hurry up and start kicking in now and the hospitalisations/numbers in hospital/deaths stats starts falling week on week. It just can't come soon enough.

I expect the figure will be over 1,000, which is not a figure we ever reached in the first wave (and is into four figures which makes it look massive).

The long weekend effect will really drive the number up.

 

[Darandio]

I expect the figure will be over 1,000, which is not a figure we ever reached in the first wave (and is into four figures which makes it look massive).

The long weekend effect will really drive the number up.

The data I am looking at suggests 999 deaths reported on 7 April followed by 1,072 on 8 April?

 

[NorthOxonian]

The data I am looking at suggests 999 deaths reported on 7 April followed by 1,072 on 8 April?

I'll trust your figures over mine on this. I don't remember us going over 1,000, but I think I've got mixed up between date of death and date of reporting.

 

[_toommm_]

Does anyone know if the restrictions force closure of car washes (either wholesale, or of a 'type') to close? They were all shut at the last lockdown, but within a week of my commute in these months, which I will be continuing to undertake, my car can go from pristine to caked due to all the salt/grit on the roads.

Yes, I can do it myself if push comes to shove, but of course I would rather not with the weather as it is!

Manual car washes have to, but automatic can stay open.

 

[Darandio]

I'll trust your figures over mine on this. I don't remember us going over 1,000, but I think I've got mixed up between date of death and date of reporting.

You are welcome to look at the same as me in case i'm interpreting it incorrectly, that's entirely possible! https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

 

[DustyBin]

I'll trust your figures over mine on this. I don't remember us going over 1,000, but I think I've got mixed up between date of death and date of reporting.

Likewise, I’m not 100% certain but I don’t think we ever reported over 1k deaths in a 24hr period. I remember saying at the time how the newspapers would be disappointed they never go to publish their pre-written ‘1k deaths’ headlines....

 

[Domh245]

The reason we didn't hit the 1k deaths/day back in April (at least, reported) was because back then there was a different reporting method (this being before the "any death following a positive test" that was in place from "april" to August) The dashboards have been subsequently revised to the "death within 28 days of first positive test" metric, hence the 1K+ days appearing now that nobody could remember before.

 

[Crossover]

Yes, most of us know that, but the media don't use that in their headlines.

Yes - I ad to point out the same to a handful of people who were getting "excited" (scared) by the very high numbers

The data I am looking at suggests 999 deaths reported on 7 April followed by 1,072 on 8 April?

That is my reading too. By reporting date, we had 1,224 in mid-April, but by date we never reached such a high

Manual car washes have to, but automatic can stay open.

Thanks

 

[Dent]

The reason we didn't hit the 1k deaths/day back in April (at least, reported) was because back then there was a different reporting method (this being before the "any death following a positive test" that was in place from "april" to August) The dashboards have been subsequently revised to the "death within 28 days of first positive test" metric, hence the 1K+ days appearing now that nobody could remember before.

The numbers shown now can be no higher than reported at the time, since deaths within 28 days after a positive test are by definition a subset of deaths any time after a positive test.

 

[roversfan2001]

They never announced a headline figure of 1,000+. Was it not hospital deaths only at the start? Then once they've added on care homes and other settings it's pushed it over 3 figures.

 

[Domh245]

The numbers shown now can be no higher than reported at the time, since deaths within 28 days after a positive test are by definition a subset of deaths any time after a positive test.

True, but the "any time after a positive test" only came in after the peak. I think that @roversfan2001 is correct in that during the early days of the reporting it was pretty much just hospital deaths reported

A bit of digging has turned up this document on PHE's methodology - the "all settings any positive test" was introduced 29/4/20 by which point numbers were comfortably on a downward trajectory avoiding any 1000+ days

 

[takno]

True, but the "any time after a positive test" only came in after the peak. I think that @roversfan2001 is correct in that during the early days of the reporting it was pretty much just hospital deaths reported

A bit of digging has turned up this document on PHE's methodology - the "all settings any positive test" was introduced 29/4/20 by which point numbers were comfortably on a downward trajectory avoiding any 1000+ days

As predicted, absolutely no context, just the big scary figure https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55550906

 

[Yew]

I see that the PM is on again, no doubt providing lots of scary numbers and fanciful graphs to make sure MP's vote for the measures tomorrow.

 

[kez19]

I see that the PM is on again, no doubt providing lots of scary numbers and fanciful graphs to make sure MP's vote for the measures tomorrow.

Next slide, next slide...cha cha slide lol

 

[Class 33]

Here are we again then, with another Downing Street press conference. Notice the "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" slogan is back on the podium again, for the first time since May. Whitty will be on in a minute with all his charts and graphs and doom mongering...

 

[6862]

Apparently 2 % of the population currently have the virus. At this rate, we should have another 10 % or so immune within a couple of weeks. I wonder if this might speed the decline in case numbers? I realise such thinking is not approved of in our free and democratic society, but it's worth considering.

 

[brick60000]

Chris seems refreshingly positive today from what I've seen - very keen to stress that zero risk isn't achievable, and that a political decision will have to be taken to accept risk at some point.

Not particularly keen on his throwaway comment about restrictions potentially being needed again next winter, though!

 

[Yew]

Here are we again then, with another Downing Street press conference. Notice the "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" slogan is back on the podium again, for the first time since May. Whitty will be on in a minute with all his charts and graphs and doom mongering...

So despite all the scare mongering about hospitals, there were no graphs showing hospital occupancy...