Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) - Latest plans & speculation

[YorkshireBear]

Dissapointing but not surprising.

On the subject of dynamic loop, it isn't long for freight trains but when you consider how many station stops there is I think the loop is long enough to be dynamic for passenger services?

 

[edwin_m]

Dissapointing but not surprising.

On the subject of dynamic loop, it isn't long for freight trains but when you consider how many station stops there is I think the loop is long enough to be dynamic for passenger services?

I answered this in #352.

 

[hwl]

Boris Johnson And Treasury 'Split' Over North's Biggest Rail Project

HMT and DfT both preferring the cheaper solution is "interesting".

 

[61653 HTAFC]

The existing curve at Heaton Lodge junction can give one a nasty jolt when heading towards Huddersfield - it likely needs quite a bit of regular maintenance to even maintain that state. A softening of the curve is a must for faster running.

There's a worse bit on the up fast just as you pass the seldom-used platform 2 at Mirfield, but the current up fast (in addition to hopefully being relaid and smoothed out anyway) will become the up slow under the current plans. Usually you're going slow enough at the Huddersfield turnout you mention, for it not to be too rough.
AIUI the fasts will be plain-lined at that curve, so the curve as the line bears left towards Huddersfield can be eased.

 

[snowball]

This link has been posted on Skyscrapercity this morning:

PM ‘absolutely committed’ to Northern Powerhouse Rail - Place North West

Boris Johnson has refuted reports that the Government plans to scrap the proposed east-west Northern rail link, saying it is a key plank of the levelling up agenda.

www.placenorthwest.co.uk

"Refute" is a word that meant "disprove" when I were a lad, but is now widely used to mean merely "deny". Perhaps we'll find out in due course whether its use here is appropriate.

Boris Johnson has refuted reports that the Government plans to scrap the proposed east-west Northern rail link, saying it is a key plank of the levelling up agenda.

A spokesman from Downing Street on Tuesday said: “We’re getting on top of our priorities of levelling up and investing in northern transport.

The Government is “absolutely committed” to delivering the project, the statement added.

The Department for Transport said: “The Integrated Rail Plan will soon outline exactly how major rail projects including HS2 phase 2b and Northern Powerhouse Rail will work together to deliver reliable train services that passengers need and deserve.”

The Integrated Rail Plan, due to be published later this year, is expected to set out the exact details of how Whitehall intends to fund future transport schemes across the UK.

The Sunday Express reported at the weekend that Treasury and DfT officials were meeting two days ago to discuss the future of rail funding. The newspaper cited “well-placed sources” as revealing that available funds have been swallowed up by the HS2 high speed rail project and that the officials intended to “effectively kill” the NPR plan.

Regional rail industry body Transport for the North has described NPR as “future defining”. The proposals include a new line between Manchester and Liverpool, include a cross-Pennine line linking Newcastle, Leeds, Hull and Sheffield with Manchester and Liverpool, upgrades and electrifications of existing services and other work to improve east-west connectivity.

TfN submitted its detailed proposals for the project to the Government earlier this year.

The organisation’s Rail North Committee is meeting this morning to discuss its priorities for the rest of the year. In papers published ahead of the meeting, it states that, among other objectives, it intends to “work closely with the DfT to develop a roadmap that delivers the required interventions and infrastructure to…increase capacity for a future delivery of Northern Powerhouse Rail”.

Interim chief executive Tim Wood said in a statement to Place North West on Monday that the NPR proposal “provides a step change in capacity and resilience for both passengers and freight and move us away from an ageing Victorian railway between Manchester and Leeds…

“We now await the publication of the Integrated Rail Plan by Government, due soon to transform connectivity across the North including great cities like Bradford which has been held back for far too long.”

 

[Roger B]

This link has been posted on Skyscrapercity this morning:

PM ‘absolutely committed’ to Northern Powerhouse Rail - Place North West

Boris Johnson has refuted reports that the Government plans to scrap the proposed east-west Northern rail link, saying it is a key plank of the levelling up agenda.

www.placenorthwest.co.uk

"Refute" is a word that meant "disprove" when I were a lad, but is now widely used to mean merely "deny". Perhaps we'll find out in due course whether its use here is appropriate.

So unfair, given Bojo's flawless honesty and integrity

 

[hwl]

This link has been posted on Skyscrapercity this morning:

PM ‘absolutely committed’ to Northern Powerhouse Rail - Place North West

Boris Johnson has refuted reports that the Government plans to scrap the proposed east-west Northern rail link, saying it is a key plank of the levelling up agenda.

www.placenorthwest.co.uk

"and move us away from an ageing Victorian railway between Manchester and Leeds…"

All the TRU proposal don't leave much Victorian left...

 

[squizzler]

So we can expect a rerun of the turn-of the millennium West Coast Mainline upgrade. An attempt to build a 21st Century Mainline on the victorian Alignment which will be massively disruptive and over budget and whose failure will simply lead to the need for a brand new railway a decade or so down the line anyway.

Betterby far to stick to the current plan of a modest Transpennine Route Upgrade envisioned to buy time for the proper NPR which makes it fit as a perfectly good mainline for secondary services thereafter.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

So we can expect a rerun of the turn-of the millennium West Coast Mainline upgrade. An attempt to build a 21st Century Mainline on the victorian Alignment which will be massively disruptive and over budget and whose failure will simply lead to the need for a brand new railway a decade or so down the line anyway.

Better by far to stick to the current plan of a modest Transpennine Route Upgrade envisioned to buy time for the proper NPR which makes it fit as a perfectly good mainline for secondary services thereafter.

My thoughts exactly though some money should definitely be spent on the Southern Transpennine route aka Hope Valley upgrade too while we await NPR

 

[hwl]

So we can expect a rerun of the turn-of the millennium West Coast Mainline upgrade. An attempt to build a 21st Century Mainline on the victorian Alignment which will be massively disruptive and over budget and whose failure will simply lead to the need for a brand new railway a decade or so down the line anyway.

Betterby far to stick to the current plan of a modest Transpennine Route Upgrade envisioned to buy time for the proper NPR which makes it fit as a perfectly good mainline for secondary services thereafter.

Comparing the journey times on the current route post upgrade and indicative NRP via Bradford, the 9 minute journey time reduction on Manchester - Leeds with NPR which is very hard to make make work in a business case.

 

[quantinghome]

Comparing the journey times on the current route post upgrade and indicative NRP via Bradford, the 9 minute journey time reduction on Manchester - Leeds with NPR which is very hard to make make work in a business case.

Once again, it's not just journey times; it's developing a full split between intercity and regional/commuter services. NPR opens up all sorts of options for the increase and reallocation of capacity on the existing transpennine route. A WCML style upgrade will create WCML problems with inevitable compromises between serving local and long distance journeys.

 

[kevin_roche]

New Civil Engineer reports that Northern Powerhouse Rail will be recommended to go ahead with a consultation on its Strategic Outline Case without waiting for the publication of the Integrated Rail Plan.

Apparently, the Integrated Rail Plan will not now be published before the Parliamentary Recess on 22nd July.

Delay to Integrated Rail Plan confirmed with Northern Powerhouse Rail left suffering | New Civil Engineer

Board agenda papers released ahead of next week’s Transport for the North (TfN) board meeting confirm that the IRP will not be published prior to

www.newcivilengineer.com

 

[Greybeard33]

A paper on NPR is included in the agenda reports pack for the 27 July TfN Board Meeting. This can be downloaded from

Agenda for Transport for the North Chief Executive Consultation Call (Board) on Tuesday, 27th July, 2021, 11.00 am

Scroll down to agenda item 10 for the link to just the NPR paper rather than the entire reports pack.

The paper states that the government's Integrated Rail Plan (IRP) will not now be published before September 2021 at the earliest, and may well be delayed until the spending review in December. TfN will then need at least a further 6 - 12 months to update the NPR Strategic Outline business Case (SOC), originally scheduled for publication in May 2021. Worst case (assuming the IRP does not cancel/pause NPR completely) would be 18 months from IRP publication, i.e SOC publication in May 2023.

The programme team has produced estimates of the impact of further delays to the IRP. These are dependent on both the timing and the content of the document – the former because that impacts upon the amount of time left in the financial year to act upon its direction, the latter because of the potential time it takes to review the document and agree a course of action based upon its recommendations. Clearly the further the IRP recommendations are from TfN’s proposed network, the more challenging it will be to quickly agree on a downstream work programme.

Once again, it's not just journey times; it's developing a full split between intercity and regional/commuter services. NPR opens up all sorts of options for the increase and reallocation of capacity on the existing transpennine route. A WCML style upgrade will create WCML problems with inevitable compromises between serving local and long distance journeys.

 

[Glenn1969]

No doubt this means Sunak has won the argument with Johnson and spending will be scaled back. Where that leaves TfN and the Manchester plans is anyone's guess but I suspect new build NPR is dead

 

[snowball]

Or does the delay suggest that the arguments are still going on?

 

[Glenn1969]

No it suggests Sunak has won and the IRP will be published after the Autumn spending review

 

[59CosG95]

No it suggests Sunak has won and the IRP will be published after the Autumn spending review

Is this pessimistic speculation, or insider knowledge?

 

[Glenn1969]

Is this pessimistic speculation, or insider knowledge?

I have no insider knowledge but it was reported in the press weeks ago (can't remember which paper though)

 

[snowball]

I have no insider knowledge but it was reported in the press weeks ago (can't remember which paper though)

It was in the papers, therefore it must be true!!???

The first item was in the Sunday Express (see post #318) but then there were other conflicting items in other media. They can't all be true. There was talk of mass demolition of houses in Huddersfield (purpose unclear) and of enlarging the TRU to £10billion.

Furthermore the Sunday Express item was talking about a meeting that had not yet happened. Articles like that are often one side trying to influence the outcome or fix in advance who will get the blame.

 

[Legolash2o]

Please correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't the IRP about how HS2 Phase 2b and the NPR TRU link? If that's true, couldn't they keep going with the middle section of the route (Manchester-Leeds) and improvements without waiting for that report?

 

[snowball]

Please correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't the IRP about how HS2 Phase 2b and the TRU link? If that's true, couldn't they keep going with the middle section of the route (Manchester-Leeds) and improvements without waiting for that report?

The Integrated Rail Plan is not primarily about TRU at all. It is mainly about HS2 and NPR. TRU is separate, unless the government decides to reduce NPR to TRU or to a somehow enhanced TRU.

The original terms of reference of the IRP are here:

Terms of reference for an integrated rail plan for the north and midlands

www.gov.uk

Guidance

Terms of reference for an integrated rail plan for the north and midlands​

Published 21 February 2020

An integrated rail plan for the Midlands and the north: High Speed North​

Purpose​

The government is fully committed to providing better rail connectivity between London, the Midlands and the north, ensuring all parts of the country benefit from opportunities for economic development and prosperity. As well as committing to deliver HS2, the government remains strongly committed to Northern Powerhouse Rail, improving connectivity between northern cities as well as between London, the Midlands and the north.

The Oakervee review concluded that for Phase 2b of HS2 (the route from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds) a Y-shaped network was the right strategic answer for the country. However, the review also concluded that Phase 2b needs to be considered as part of an Integrated Rail Plan for the north and Midlands which also includes Northern Powerhouse Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and other major Network Rail schemes to ensure these are scoped, designed, delivered, and can be operated as an integrated network. The Oakervee Review also identified the opportunity to challenge design and costs on Phase 2b, including standards, running speed, and responsibility for delivery.

The government agrees that, on current plans, Phase 2b of HS2 will deliver connectivity for the East Midlands and the North of England considerably later than the rest of HS2, and that there are questions about whether its design maximises the benefits from connectivity. The government wants to ensure that Phase 2b of HS2 and other planned rail investments in the Midlands and the north are scoped and delivered in an integrated way, including with the wider rail network, whilst driving down unnecessary costs and over-specification.

Scope of the Integrated Rail Plan​

The government, working with HS2 Ltd and local leaders, will therefore draw up an Integrated Rail Plan for the Midlands and the north which is framed by the government’s commitment to bring forward transformational rail improvements along the HS2 route as quickly as possible. This work will be informed by an assessment from the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) looking at the rail needs of the Midlands and the north, and the available evidence on Northern Powerhouse Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, HS2 Phase 2b and other proposed Network Rail projects.

The government will also proceed with the legislation to allow for the development of the Western Leg provided it does not prejudge any recommendations or decisions that will be taken in this plan, and noting that Phase 2b can be legislated for in two or more hybrid bills, which may run concurrently.

The plan will consider the following, based on the NIC’s assessment and taking into account value for money, levelling up, affordability and deliverability considerations:

1. How best to integrate HS2 Phase 2b and wider transport plans in the north and Midlands, delivering benefits from investments more quickly. This should include a recommended way forward on scoping, phasing and sequencing delivery of HS2 Phase 2b, Northern Powerhouse Rail, Midlands Rail Hub and other proposed rail investments. This should take into account: government commitments; the current state of development for different projects; the transformational and capacity benefits of these schemes; fiscal and supply chain capability constraints; network integration; consenting routes (including legislation); and, in line with the Oakervee Review conclusion, the appropriate mix of high speed line and upgrades of conventional network, and the sequencing of these, on any elements of the investments under consideration.
2. How best to reduce cost, including opportunities to reconsider HS2 Phase 2b scope and design standards to prevent over-specification, improve efficiency and reduce costs, drawing on the Phase One lessons learnt work to be led by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (see below).
3. The recommended approach to sponsorship and delivery, including governance and delivery models, and how to take account of the views of local leaders, consistent with delivering on the objectives of the scheme and value for money. This will include exploring options for new delivery vehicles with northern leaders for the relevant rail enhancements including new lines that may form part of the delivery of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail.
4. How best to deliver rail connectivity with Scotland, in conjunction with the Scottish Government.

TRU is not mentioned by name but is presumably covered by "other major Network Rail schemes" and "other proposed rail developments".

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

No doubt the rail enhancement pipeline will also suffer the same fate.

 

[mwmbwls]

No doubt the rail enhancement pipeline will also suffer the same fate.

Tis the season to be watchful. Traditionally at the end of this parliamentary term UK Government departments hold what the Americans describe as "Bringing out the Trash"day - Announcements that they know will meet an unfavourable response are released and get lost in the newscycle. The HS2 Eastern Leg and NPR fall into this category.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Tis the season to be watchful. Traditionally at the end of this parliamentary term UK Government departments hold what the Americans describe as "Bringing out the Trash"day - Announcements that they know will meet an unfavourable response are released and get lost in the newscycle. The HS2 Eastern Leg and NPR fall into this category.

In which case, we do not have long to wait...

 

[Legolash2o]

The Integrated Rail Plan is not primarily about TRU at all. It is mainly about HS2 and NPR. TRU is separate, unless the government decides to reduce NPR to TRU or to a somehow enhanced TRU.

Ah dang it, I meant NPR! It's because I read TRU in the previous post. Sorry!

 

[snowball]

So did the question at the end of #231 mean "why don't they get on with the Manchester-Leeds section of NPR?" or "why don't they get on with the Manchester-Leeds section of TRU?"?

To some extent they are getting on with at least bits of TRU. Piling is going on for the OLE between Manchester and Stalybridge, bridges between Victoria and Miles Platting are about to be rebuilt, a new bridge at Miles Platting is being built, the application for an order for Huddersfield-Westtown has been submitted and is likely to go to public inquiry at the end of the year.

 

[Glenn1969]

They mean the strategic Outline Case for NPR, not TRU. The fact that the TRU 4 tracking stops 10 miles from Leeds surely means NPR is still needed

 

[edwin_m]

They mean the strategic Outline Case for NPR, not TRU. The fact that the TRU 4 tracking stops 10 miles from Leeds surely means NPR is still needed

The extent of TRU four-tracking probably means a Huddersfield-Leeds local can sneak through the remaining 2-track section in between Manchester fasts that are about 15min apart. Same might apply to a Manchester-Huddersfield-Leeds local considering the lower top speeds west of Huddersfield, maybe with a bit of skip-stopping. So TRU can provide a pretty decent service, but NPR is really needed for a transformational change.

 

[snowball]

TfN are continuing to work on the case - see this document linked via #374 - but the IRP, when it eventually appears, is widely expected to rule out TfN's preferred route corridor via Bradford. This would presumably require major rewrites.

https://democracy.transportforthenorth.com/documents/s2922/Item%2010%20-%20Northern%20Powerhouse%20Rail.pdf

2.1 Transport for the North Board members are asked to:
 Note that the IRP will not be published prior to parliamentary
recess (starting 22 July) and will now be delayed until September
2021 at the earliest.
 Note that the Strategic Outline Case for NPR is now unlikely to be
completed within the FY21/22 and could take 6-12 months from
publication of the IRP.
 Note that we will continue to make progress on implementing the
agreed scope of work for FY21/22 and model development, but a
review of the future work programme may be likely.

 

[Glenn1969]

Sunak is widely believed to want an "expanded TRU" for £10bn, not the £39bn NPR that Boris said he would fund more than once during the 2019 election campaign

IMHO TRU is NOT NPR and never can be. The North needs a 4 tracked, wired line all the way from Liverpool to Leeds and York. I'm not convinced it will get it