Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) - Latest plans & speculation

[507020]

Sunak is widely believed to want an "expanded TRU" for £10bn, not the £39bn NPR that Boris said he would fund more than once during the 2019 election campaign

IMHO TRU is NOT NPR and never can be. The North needs a 4 tracked, wired line all the way from Liverpool to Leeds and York. I'm not convinced it will get it

Well they can start by demolishing the first few feet of the M62 so it starts south of Broad Green without encroaching on the trackbed. Surely that can be done for less than £10 billion.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

So did the question at the end of #231 mean "why don't they get on with the Manchester-Leeds section of NPR?" or "why don't they get on with the Manchester-Leeds section of TRU?"?

To some extent they are getting on with at least bits of TRU. Piling is going on for the OLE between Manchester and Stalybridge, bridges between Victoria and Miles Platting are about to be rebuilt, a new bridge at Miles Platting is being built, the application for an order for Huddersfield-Westtown has been submitted and is likely to go to public inquiry at the end of the year.

The bridge in Collyhurst that takes Rochdale Road over the running lines was rebuilt in the last few years. Was that part of the project or done for a different reason?

 

[Bald Rick]

This would presumably require major rewrites.

Rewrites of what?

 

[ABB125]

Rewrites of what?

I'm guessing the glossy brochure that would have been published by TfN?

 

[snowball]

Rewrites of what?

Rewrites of the business case for NPR, which the government asked TfN to delay publication of until after the now-again-delayed IRP, and which is what Glenn1969 said was what Legolash2o was referring to when he said "why don't they just get on with the Manchester-Leeds section?".

 

[Bald Rick]

Rewrites of the business case for NPR, which the government asked TfN to delay publication of until after the now-again-delayed IRP, and which is what Glenn1969 said was what Legolash2o was referring to when he said "why don't they just get on with the Manchester-Leeds section?".

Ah. The business cases have got the various alternatives in them for consideration. So not much rewriting required.

 

[snowball]

The bridge in Collyhurst that takes Rochdale Road over the running lines was rebuilt in the last few years. Was that part of the project or done for a different reason?

According to posts in the Transpennine thread at the time it was for electrification Victoria-Stalybridge.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This in the FT today

They said the Treasury was alarmed by the rising costs on parts of the HS2 northerly route where planning is at its most advanced, including the section from Crewe to Manchester. The Department for Transport insisted no final decisions have been taken on the eastern leg of HS2. Ministers are looking at ways in which other rail improvements can mitigate an expected prolonged delay in its construction. “The Integrated Rail Plan will soon outline exactly how major rail projects, including HS2 phase 2b and other transformational projects such as Northern Powerhouse Rail, will work together to deliver the reliable train services that passengers across the north and Midlands need and deserve,” the DfT said.

Ministers are studying long-delayed plans to improve rail connections across the Pennines between Leeds and Manchester. Another option being considered is to build a much shorter HS2 easterly extension to the East Midlands and to improve existing lines. Last December, the National Infrastructure Commission, a government advisory body, recommended delaying the eastern leg in favour of improved regional rail links, which it said would be quicker to build and would increase economic growth by 20 per cent more than long-distance rail services.

The Treasury, which has been forced to bail out the rail industry during the Covid pandemic, believes the “working from home” revolution has further weakened the case for expensive new rail projects.

Would give rise to the view that Trans Pennine Upgrade will be pushed forward probably at the the expense of other projects given its escalating costs but that an electrifying rest of MML gives the politicians enough to cover the red wall areas on that side of England.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Well they can start by demolishing the first few feet of the M62 so it starts south of Broad Green without encroaching on the trackbed. Surely that can be done for less than £10 billion.

But the electrification masts and signalling kit for Wavertree-Broad Green sit in the old fast lines trackbed.
So not cheap at all.

 

[Starmill]

As has been suggested before, it would be quite acceptable, sensible even, for the presumed incoming government in 2024 to bring forward a Birmingham - Toton hybrid bill and await Royal Assent of this in perhaps 2027 before committing to the funding for the final section of the Eastern leg, especially given how short the existing route will be from Toton to Sheffield. This would of course assume that the current government can achieve Royal Assent for a Crewe - Manchester bill before the next election.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

As has been suggested before, it would be quite acceptable, sensible even, for the presumed incoming government in 2024 to bring forward a Birmingham - Toton hybrid bill and await Royal Assent of this in perhaps 2027 before committing to the funding for the final section of the Eastern leg, especially given how short the existing route will be from Toton to Sheffield. This would of course assume that the current government can achieve Royal Assent for a Crewe - Manchester bill before the next election.

If one were to hazard a guess of the priorities of the winner of the next General Election, would transport-related matters be high on the list of the new Government or would the NHS, Education, etc, be much further up their financially-targetted areas.

 

[Starmill]

If one were to hazard a guess of the priorities of the winner of the next General Election, would transport-related matters be high on the list of the new Government or would the NHS, Education, etc, be much further up their financially-targetted areas.

I guess it's really not something we can forsee, but the current government can't particularly plan a legislative timetable beyond 2024 is what I was getting at. It is of course a possibility that we may have another election sooner, e.g. 2023.

 

[HSTEd]

I honestly expect the entire thing to get kicked into the long grass.

No IRP before September 2021 at the earliest - I very much doubt we will see it this year.

The Treasury is not going to agree to any spending.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I honestly expect the entire thing to get kicked into the long grass.
No IRP before September 2021 at the earliest - I very much doubt we will see it this year.
The Treasury is not going to agree to any spending.

Agreed - the sop will be - Transpennine upgrade in full and MML (in almost full).

 

[Purple Orange]

Agreed - the sop will be - Transpennine upgrade in full and MML (in almost full).

Would that be a bad thing? Full TRU would result in 4 fast in less than 40 mins between Leeds & Manchester plus 2 semi-fast, 2 stoppers and full electrification

 

[Glenn1969]

Yes. Because the rest of Yorkshire and other routes get no benefit

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Would that be a bad thing? Full TRU would result in 4 fast in less than 40 mins between Leeds & Manchester plus 2 semi-fast, 2 stoppers and full electrification

Not to get too far OT - but not it would not be a bad thing - and yes I would be happy with NPR "deferred/delayed/kicked into the long grass" and electrification of existing assets.

 

[Glenn1969]

Not to get too far OT - but not it would not be a bad thing - and yes I would be happy with NPR "deferred/delayed/kicked into the long grass" and electrification of existing assets.

Most of West Yorkshire's 2040 plan is dependant on HS2 and NPR being delivered in full so scrapping it for us would be an unmitigated disaster and possibly set development back decades

 

[Purple Orange]

Not to get too far OT - but not it would not be a bad thing - and yes I would be happy with NPR "deferred/delayed/kicked into the long grass" and electrification of existing assets.

Why would you oppose a new electrified railway line?

 

[Gareth]

But the electrification masts and signalling kit for Wavertree-Broad Green sit in the old fast lines trackbed.
So not cheap at all.

Still, needs doing, one way or the other. The plan, way back when, was that the local services would be sent into a tunnel at Broad Green and become part of Merseyrail. Thus, it was presumed a near certainty that four overground tracks would be never needed again.

As well as equipment on the trackbed, the supports of the Queen's Drive flyover currently leave no space for four-tracking. However, there are plans to demolish this flyover, so there will be an opportunity to remove this constraint. The other issue is Wavertree Station, which pretty much would need rebuilding.

These complications may mean revisiting the tunnel option but if the locals go underground, Wavertree will need the long distance services to call at it. It currently has 4tph and I don't think you could get away with dramatically reducing that. Otherwise, you'd have to consider a new underground station to replace the existing one, or put the long distance services in a tunnel instead.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Why would you oppose a new electrified railway line?

Oh heck no - dont get me wrong, I want it all. HS2 in full, NPR in full and electrification of almost everything and Crossrail 2 incidentally as well as SaTH and WRAtH.

BUT - in order of priority electrification of Transpennine and MML in full are higher priorities.

 

[Purple Orange]

Oh heck no - dont get me wrong, I want it all. HS2 in full, NPR in full and electrification of almost everything and Crossrail 2 incidentally as well as SaTH and WRAtH.

BUT - in order of priority electrification of Transpennine and MML in full are higher priorities.

Oh I see, yes I’d prioritise TRU and MML electrification. In fact I expect NPR will have to take on board elements of both. Full NPR is for the birds on my view.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Sunak is widely believed to want an "expanded TRU" for £10bn, not the £39bn NPR that Boris said he would fund more than once during the 2019 election campaign

If Mr Sunak was a website member and had opened this thread, would he have put it in the "Speculative Ideas" forum, instead of the forum it currently is placed in?

 

[Starmill]

Would that be a bad thing? Full TRU would result in 4 fast in less than 40 mins between Leeds & Manchester plus 2 semi-fast, 2 stoppers and full electrification

Maybe for 2030. What about in 2045?

 

[Bald Rick]

No IRP before September 2021 at the earliest

Sept 2021 is next week...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Sept 2021 is next week...

FT article suggested Autumn is target by which time spending review will have been concluded in the background so ministers can coordinate a series of announcements to make the govt look good.

 

[LittleAH]

I honestly expect the entire thing to get kicked into the long grass.

No IRP before September 2021 at the earliest - I very much doubt we will see it this year.

The Treasury is not going to agree to any spending.

I'd bank on a TRU announcement in early Autumn ahead of the IRP/Spending review. Politically it shows commitment to the North, but avoids the difficult questions on NPR/HS2. Then NPR as Transport for the North want it is kicked into the long grass, with TRU via Huddersfield getting further upgrades (a watered down NPR so to speak) as per the rumours last November and the documents of new options being put forward as TRU.

Edit: There's still likely to be new infrastructure for a watered down NPR via Huddersfield as west of Huddersfield there can be no line speed enhancements that mean it becomes a glorified electrification project.

Politically, the Tories are going to be for a kicking. The North remembers...

Most of West Yorkshire's 2040 plan is dependant on HS2 and NPR being delivered in full so scrapping it for us would be an unmitigated disaster and possibly set development back decades

Not necessarily it wouldn't, certainly not NPR. You can still do light rail without NPR - HS2 and creating a new transport hub in Leeds in a different matter.

 

[Purple Orange]

Maybe for 2030. What about in 2045?

Depends what would be ideal? 4 x fast Leeds-Huddersfield-Manchester; 4 x semi-fast Leeds-Dewsbury-Huddersfield-Stalybridge-Manchester; 4 x stopping services.

I'd bank on a TRU announcement in early Autumn ahead of the IRP/Spending review. Politically it shows commitment to the North, but avoids the difficult questions on NPR/HS2. Then NPR as Transport for the North want it is kicked into the long grass, with TRU via Huddersfield getting further upgrades (a watered down NPR so to speak) as per the rumours last November and the documents of new options being put forward as TRU.

Edit: There's still likely to be new infrastructure for a watered down NPR via Huddersfield as west of Huddersfield there can be no line speed enhancements that mean it becomes a glorified electrification project.

Politically, the Tories are going to be for a kicking. The North remembers...

Not necessarily it wouldn't, certainly not NPR. You can still do light rail without NPR - HS2 and creating a new transport hub in Leeds in a different matter.

What sort of announcement could be made? With TRU, the glaring hole is Huddersfield-Stalybridge and Stalybridge-Piccadilly, so could NPR be what fills this gap?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Maybe for 2030. What about in 2045?

You are indeed very forward thinking, asking about matters 24 years into the future.

On a personal note, in that year you mention, I hope to be still around to receive that particular message from whosoever will be the ruling monarch congratulating me on reaching my 100 years not out!!!

 

[Starmill]

You are indeed very forward

A typical appraisal period might be 60 years of forecasting.