Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

[jon0844]

You do realize some people might have no choice but to travel. People still have to get to work etc or they won't get paid. I know I'd love to work for a company that'd tell me not to come in in bad weather and still pay me but it's never going to happen. Have a think about that before you just blatantly accuse people of "ignoring" things.

Surely everyone has a choice? What about for their own personal safety (their personal responsibility)? If Friday is half as bad as predicted, would you venture out and hope for the best because you work for someone that is going to dock your pay if you don't come in?

I'm not going to say go and find a new job as I appreciate that isn't easy to do at the best of times, but I'd certainly be at least contemplating the idea of seeking a new job if the opportunity arises.

If you get stranded in a near hurricane for 3 hours, do you still get paid because at least you tried to get in? Does your boss mind you sleeping in the office/shop/warehouse if you got to work and can't get home?

Do you eventually get in to find out that, guess what, your boss decided to work from home?

Bad weather is NOT something people can or should ignore. Don't fight mother nature, or else be prepared for the consequences - bringing warm clothing, a bottle of water and some food, and being prepared to still not get to where you need to get to.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely everyone has a choice? What about for their own personal safety (their personal responsibility)? If Friday is half as bad as predicted, would you venture out and hope for the best because you work for someone that is going to dock your pay if you don't come in?

I don't know about docking pay, but there are employers who would sack someone who didn't come in deliberately (yes, I know, employment rights, meanwhile in the real world...) Would I take the risk and venture out because otherwise there's a fair chance I couldn't put food on the table? Absolutely I would.

That's why I would like the Government to act on this, with a policy along the lines of a lockdown (but not banning leaving home) which would protect people from this. Essentially an extra super-public holiday (like Christmas Day, where only truly essential business takes place) for a red or amber warning. Why not? Then nobody can be pressured.

It's not about restricting peoples' personal choices, it is about protecting them from others - essentially the whole basis of workplace health and safety, which exists not to protect individuals from being stupid (though it does that as a side-effect), it exists primarily to protect employees from unscrupulous employers who would gain competitive advantage by paying scant attention to safety and saving money as a result.

Your post seems to describe a middle class position where employers would typically be tolerant, but even if they weren't and insisted on a day's annual leave being used, or even docked a day's pay, you could absorb that. I could, too. But there are lots of people - millions probably - in very precarious positions who cannot. Something does need to be done for them.

FWIW I think Avanti have been quite sensible on this - they have put forward a VERY unattractive (but very resilient) split-up timetable. This means that, subject to it being possible to continue running, people can get somewhere if they absolutely must (but would be well advised to start as early as possible if doing so), but nobody would choose the faff of a London-Glasgow journey with three changes which no doubt involve sitting around for over an hour at each change if they had the choice to stay in instead.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

What about front-line hospital workers? They don't have a choice to stay at home because of bad weather. Their first duty of care is to their patients. Some lower paid workers might be docked pay or told to take annual leave even if they attempted a journey to work

 

[jon0844]

I don't know about docking pay, but there are employers who would sack someone who didn't come in deliberately (yes, I know, employment rights, meanwhile in the real world...) Would I take the risk and venture out because otherwise there's a fair chance I couldn't put food on the table? Absolutely I would.

That's why I would like the Government to act on this, with a policy along the lines of a lockdown (but not banning leaving home) which would protect people from this. Essentially an extra super-public holiday (like Christmas Day, where only truly essential business takes place) for a red or amber warning. Why not? Then nobody can be pressured.

I fully get that people can't afford to lose pay, just as people were going to work with Covid because they couldn't be off for 10 days.

You are right; there should be a more official 'stay home' advisory so people can't be forced to take risks just to keep a dodgy employer happy.

The problem is that if TOCs get slated for being over cautious, can you imagine the reaction to Boris telling people to stay indoors?

Edit: Of course there are key workers who are in a different situation, but also needs options - like during lockdown when keyworkers were staying in local hotels to continue working when they couldn't/shouldn't travel. I have to say that I don't know just how bad the weather is supposed to be tomorrow, but if were were ever due a massive hurricane of 1987 proportions, it would be something I'd expect the Government to give advice on and prepare how emergency workers will function. As it is, many people may find it hard to get to their surgeries or hospitals if local roads are littered with debris.

For the trains, some drivers or other rail staff will also struggle to get to work and some services may be affected due to things happening away from the line.

 

[A0]

So 3 changes to get from London to Liverpool . Wtf?!

I guess Avanti have looked to run 'blocks' of services in a way that means if there is a problem down the line, other services will still run.

So looking at what they are doing:

• London Euston - Birmingham New Street
• London Euston - Rugby
• Manchester Piccadilly - Rugby
• Liverpool Lime Street - Crewe
• Rugby - Preston via Birmingham New Street
• Preston - Rugby
• Glasgow Central - Preston

If there's a problem between Rugby and Euston it means that there will still be services running up the Trent Valley and onto Manchester, up the Trent Valley to Crewe and so on.

Seems like fairly sensible planning - whilst I agree it does mean a slower, longer journey if you're doing London - Liverpool for example, it does mean that for many people it is mitigating the risk of disruption.

 

[Tester]

I don't know about docking pay, but there are employers who would sack someone who didn't come in deliberately (yes, I know, employment rights, meanwhile in the real world...) Would I take the risk and venture out because otherwise there's a fair chance I couldn't put food on the table? Absolutely I would.

That's why I would like the Government to act on this, with a policy along the lines of a lockdown (but not banning leaving home) which would protect people from this. Essentially an extra super-public holiday (like Christmas Day, where only truly essential business takes place) for a red or amber warning. Why not? Then nobody can be pressured.

It's not about restricting peoples' personal choices, it is about protecting them from others - essentially the whole basis of workplace health and safety, which exists not to protect individuals from being stupid (though it does that as a side-effect), it exists primarily to protect employees from unscrupulous employers who would gain competitive advantage by paying scant attention to safety and saving money as a result.

Your post seems to describe a middle class position where employers would typically be tolerant, but even if they weren't and insisted on a day's annual leave being used, or even docked a day's pay, you could absorb that. I could, too. But there are lots of people - millions probably - in very precarious positions who cannot. Something does need to be done for them.

FWIW I think Avanti have been quite sensible on this - they have put forward a VERY unattractive (but very resilient) split-up timetable. This means that, subject to it being possible to continue running, people can get somewhere if they absolutely must (but would be well advised to start as early as possible if doing so), but nobody would choose the faff of a London-Glasgow journey with three changes which no doubt involve sitting around for over an hour at each change if they had the choice to stay in instead.

This could be done if the political will existed (yes I know )

Hong Kong has a very clearly defined set of rules as to what happens during weather related warning periods, covering not only work attendance/payment but also contractual delay penalties etc..

I suspect that it doesn't happen often enough here to be considered worth the effort, but it is most definitely doable.

 

[Class 466]

GTR have posted their service plan for tomorrow now, TL Core shut with lots of service groups taken out or reduced to shuttles - wise given how disrupted things were last night.
SE have cancelled all the peak time mainline services into Cannon St. - both have a 50mph speed restriction in place for most of tomorrow.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I guess Avanti have looked to run 'blocks' of services in a way that means if there is a problem down the line, other services will still run.

I think it's twofold.

One is to split it up with self contained diagrams so if one bit is messed up the rest won't be.

The other bit is that it will get people where they need to go (assuming trees and trampolines don't), but is very unattractive so will considerably reduce discretionary travel and thus reduce the number stranded.

I think it's very sensible indeed.

 

[bramling]

I guess Avanti have looked to run 'blocks' of services in a way that means if there is a problem down the line, other services will still run.

So looking at what they are doing:

• London Euston - Birmingham New Street
• London Euston - Rugby
• Manchester Piccadilly - Rugby
• Liverpool Lime Street - Crewe
• Rugby - Preston via Birmingham New Street
• Preston - Rugby
• Glasgow Central - Preston

If there's a problem between Rugby and Euston it means that there will still be services running up the Trent Valley and onto Manchester, up the Trent Valley to Crewe and so on.

Seems like fairly sensible planning - whilst I agree it does mean a slower, longer journey if you're doing London - Liverpool for example, it does mean that for many people it is mitigating the risk of disruption.

Those services will almost certainly be informed by the location of crew depots. Crew gets on a train and they do a simple out and back. Keeps everything much simpler.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Feb 2022 ==

I think it's twofold.

One is to split it up with self contained diagrams so if one bit is messed up the rest won't be.

The other bit is that it will get people where they need to go (assuming trees and trampolines don't), but is very unattractive so will considerably reduce discretionary travel and thus reduce the number stranded.

I think it's very sensible indeed.

Yes pretty standard practice, and very sensible. Each crew simply do “X and back”.

It also means, in most cases, crews won’t be too far from their Home Depot, which is useful if at some point the decision is made to shut up shop (or events force that, as unfortunately sounds like will be the case).

 

[yorkie]

Just another reminder:

Can I just remind everyone that this thread is to specifically discuss the effects on the railway of storms Dudley and Eunice.

I know its tempting to bring up the related topic of climate change but this is not the thread or the forum section for it - we have a General Discussion section for that.

thanks

If anyone wishes to discuss anything else, you are very welcome to create a new thread (if there isn't one already) in the appropraite forum section and you may link to it from here.

For example a speculative proposal for a train company to change service provision or a method of working would belong in Speculative Discussion, whereas a discussion on workplace practices, employment issues etc. would belong in General Discussion.

Thanks

 

[Skymonster]

I don't know about docking pay, but there are employers who would sack someone who didn't come in deliberately (yes, I know, employment rights, meanwhile in the real world...) Would I take the risk and venture out because otherwise there's a fair chance I couldn't put food on the table? Absolutely I would.

Quite understandable. I suspect there’d be some work in the railways who’d have a different attitude to maintaining services during inclement weather if they were told “services aren’t running tomorrow, so we don’t need you to work, so you won’t get paid” which is the choice quite a few workers face.

 

[bramling]

Quite understandable. I suspect there’d be some work in the railways who’d have a different attitude to maintaining services during inclement weather if they were told “services aren’t running tomorrow, so we don’t need you to work, so you won’t get paid” which is the choice quite a few workers face.

Being completely honest, given what some weather forums are saying about tomorrow, I’d be completely happy to lose a day’s pay if it meant not having to travel to work.

I’m due to be travelling to work at around 1200 tomorrow, which seems to be the time this is forecast to be at its worst in this neck of the woods. I suspect it’s going to be a case of “trains not running and no way I’m risking taking the car out”.

 

[MikeWM]

I think it's twofold.

One is to split it up with self contained diagrams so if one bit is messed up the rest won't be.

The other bit is that it will get people where they need to go (assuming trees and trampolines don't), but is very unattractive so will considerably reduce discretionary travel and thus reduce the number stranded.

I think it's very sensible indeed.

I agree - though I'm not sure Rugby station would be top of my list of places to change train during a storm, it is rather exposed (and elevated!) Perhaps that is part of the point.

On the wider point, less than 24 hours out, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the path of this storm - could still be worst on the south coast, or (more likely) much further inland. BBC Weather (not entirely reliable of course!) now has max 81mph winds in Ely tomorrow and 6+ hours of 70mph+ (ugh).

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree - though I'm not sure Rugby station would be top of my list of places to change train during a storm, it is rather exposed (and elevated!) Perhaps that is part of the point.

It has indoor waiting rooms. The choice of Rugby will just relate to where the staff changeovers would normally be - it's clearly been designed so the service is self-contained so knock-on delays and cancellations won't occur.

On the wider point, less than 24 hours out, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the path of this storm - could still be worst on the south coast, or (more likely) much further inland. BBC Weather (not entirely reliable of course!) now has max 81mph winds in Ely tomorrow and 6+ hours of 70mph+ (ugh).

MK seems to be showing numbers in the 50s on the BBC forecast at the moment, which is about as inland as it gets. Suspect we will lose a tree or two!

 

[bramling]

I agree - though I'm not sure Rugby station would be top of my list of places to change train during a storm, it is rather exposed (and elevated!) Perhaps that is part of the point.

On the wider point, less than 24 hours out, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the path of this storm - could still be worst on the south coast, or (more likely) much further inland. BBC Weather (not entirely reliable of course!) now has max 81mph winds in Ely tomorrow and 6+ hours of 70mph+ (ugh).

The general consensus on weather forums (*) is certainly that this is going to be quite severe, and there has been tentative mention of a potential sting jet.

(* some of these weather forums are rather irritating as some folk seem to will these things on - not sure how sensible that is when there is likelihood of some degree of loss of life).

I suspect that if a red warning comes out, as seems likely for at least some areas, we may well see the decision to suspend services altogether. To be honest, much as that should really be the last resort, I think that would likely be most sensible. There are going to be a lot of problems tomorrow if the models turn out to be even half accurate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

(* some of these weather forums are rather irritating as some folk seem to will these things on - not sure how sensible that is when there is likelihood of some degree of loss of life).

Give or take tornado hunters who want it bad for a different reason (and are nutters, but then cave divers are a thing), there is a tendency for people to seem to enjoy making worst-case predictions. It's all over Twitter with regard to a certain well-known viral lurgy.

 

[bramling]

Give or take tornado hunters who want it bad for a different reason (and are nutters, but then cave divers are a thing), there is a tendency for people to seem to enjoy making worst-case predictions. It's all over Twitter with regard to a certain well-known viral lurgy.

Well, yes, and there’s even a newspaper (Daily Express!) which specialises in it.

The problem is that we end up with a cry wolf scenario.

Delving in deeper on this one, the models do seem to speak for themselves. There are going to be some pretty nasty winds tomorrow.

 

[MidlandsChap]

It has indoor waiting rooms. The choice of Rugby will just relate to where the staff changeovers would normally be - it's clearly been designed so the service is self-contained so knock-on delays and cancellations won't occur.



MK seems to be showing numbers in the 50s on the BBC forecast at the moment, which is about as inland as it gets. Suspect we will lose a tree or two!

In my experience best not to rely too heavily on the BBC numbers. Met office showing gusts in the mid to high 60s for that area.

 

[Ex-controller]

I think it's twofold.

One is to split it up with self contained diagrams so if one bit is messed up the rest won't be.

The other bit is that it will get people where they need to go (assuming trees and trampolines don't), but is very unattractive so will considerably reduce discretionary travel and thus reduce the number stranded.

I think it's very sensible indeed.

Agreed. This is excellent. Scotrail did something similar during a recent storm (Arwen?) by having a self contained shuttle between Aberdeen and Dundee, running under speed restriction, whilst terminating all services from the south at Dundee.

Avanti’s plan is far more extensive of course.

 

[Furrball]

Red warning issued for parts of South west England and South Wales

UK weather warnings

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

 

[Walter Whigham]

Red weather warning now issued for S Wales and the West of England.

 

[MarkWi72]

The 2000 one really sticks out because of Hatfield. I remember going into London on a 365 after it had subsided, necessarily via Hertford, and at something like 40 mph all the way due to the gauge corner cracking mitigations. I think it was in that storm that a Piccadilly Line train had a nasty encounter with a tree at Osterley.

Can’t remember what I was doing during St Jude’s, but I remember the build up to it. I do recall it was quite well forecasted.

The 2000 one flooded the A3 . It took me 2 hours to travel from New Malden to Roehampton

 

[liamf656]

There is now a RED warning for the south west, covering Cornwall and parts of south Wales, for Friday

 

[MikeWM]

The general consensus on weather forums (*) is certainly that this is going to be quite severe, and there has been tentative mention of a potential sting jet.

And if a sting jet does happen, the most likely place for it on the current models seems to be pretty much directly over my house So I rather hope that doesn't happen.

(* some of these weather forums are rather irritating as some folk seem to will these things on - not sure how sensible that is when there is likelihood of some degree of loss of life).

Yes, they do like the extremes. I suppose that makes sense to some degree, but I agree it can be irritating.

I suspect that if a red warning comes out, as seems likely for at least some areas, we may well see the decision to suspend services altogether. To be honest, much as that should really be the last resort, I think that would likely be most sensible. There are going to be a lot of problems tomorrow if the models turn out to be even half accurate.

Personally, I'd have made the call to suspend everything south of say Liverpool-Hull by yesterday afternoon and given people time to plan. It was clear by then this was highly likely to be a once-in-a-decade or worse event.

 

[londonbridge]

Yes, the upgrade to RED warning has just come up on the BBC News app.

 

[bramling]

And if a sting jet does happen, the most likely place for it on the current models seems to be pretty much directly over my house So I rather hope that doesn't happen.



Yes, they do like the extremes. I suppose that makes sense to some degree, but I agree it can be irritating.



Personally, I'd have made the call to suspend everything south of say Liverpool-Hull by yesterday afternoon and given people time to plan. It was clear by then this was highly likely to be a once-in-a-decade or worse event.

Still quite surprising how little media focus this is receiving. Naturally we all hope this has been over-predicted, but given multiple weather models are all pointing to something potentially severe, it’s certainly prudent to plan for the worst on this.

And with the timings, we’re going to have a situation where quite simply a lot of railway staff are going to have trouble getting in for late-turn shifts tomorrow. That in itself is a potential problem, as if people are able to start journeys in the early morning, we could end up with a lot of people stranded later on - in potentially dangerous conditions.

 

[MidlandsChap]

Still quite surprising how little media focus this is receiving. Naturally we all hope this has been over-predicted, but given multiple weather models are all pointing to something potentially severe, it’s certainly prudent to plan for the worst on this.

And with the timings, we’re going to have a situation where quite simply a lot of railway staff are going to have trouble getting in for late-turn shifts tomorrow. That in itself is a potential problem, as if people are able to start journeys in the early morning, we could end up with a lot of people stranded later on - in potentially dangerous conditions.

I see where you are coming from but I do not think lack of media attention is the problem.

Type storm Eunice into google and you will see many of the big names in the media with articles about the potential for a catastrophic event. IMO the real issue here is that they seem to do this all to frequently throughout the autumn and winter. By the time something genuinely dangerous is on the cards the general public are far too desensitized to it. Nobody I have spoken to seems all that concerned about this despite knowing it will be stormy. Perhaps if the media stopped hyping everything up to get clicks people might have a better chance of knowing when to take action.

 

[86246]

Greater Anglia have announced their planned service for tomorrow.

All routes severe weather warning for Friday 18 February | Greater Anglia

www.greateranglia.co.uk

Greater Anglia all routes severe weather warning Friday 18 February

Essential travel only warning issued for East Anglia

Due to storm Eunice hitting the Anglia region on Friday 18 February. We will be reducing the time table. Trains will be running at a reduced speed imposed by Network Rail, due to high winds.

Route Changes

Half hourly service

Southend Victoria to London Liverpool Street
Stansted Airport to London

Hourly service

Norwich to London Liverpool Street Intercity service
Cambridge, Bishop’s Stortford to London Liverpool Street
Ipswich, Colchester, Chelmsford to London Liverpool Street
Meridian Water to Stratford
Southminster – Wickford
Harwich – Manningtree
Walton-on-the-Naze - Thorpe-le-Soken
Clacton-on-Sea – Colchester
Hertford East – Broxbourne
Marks Tey to Sudbury
Norwich to Cambridge,
Norwich to Great Yarmouth
Norwich to Lowestoft

Two hourly (once every two hours)

Norwich to Sheringham
Ipswich to Cambridge
Ipswich to Lowestoft
Ipswich to Felixstowe
Ipswich to Peterborough

Customers who have booked tickets for travel on Friday 18 February will be able to travel on Saturday 19 February.

 

[172007]

Any blanket speed restrictions yet for today and tomorrow?

 

[ungreat]

Any blanket speed restrictions yet for today and tomorrow?

50mph for ECML (GTR) we were told