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Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

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irish_rail

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One wonders if the engineering work between Plymouth and Exeter this weekend could be cancelled, as anyone wishing to avoid travelling Friday, will be ushered onto coaches from Plymouth to Tiverton on Saturday. Surely NR could cancel the engineering and let GWR run some trains on Saturday at least?!
 
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MarkWi72

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West Midlands to be hit badly? It's gusty outside now and was worse earlier. There's a lot of tree debris in the roads near Knowle, Balsall Common, Solihull and Lapworth. If friday is bad there'll be trees down I guess. Maybe the Marylebone/Chiltern Line and Brum-Cov will be impacted.
 

MikeWM

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Is anyone with specialist weather expertise able to offer an opinion as to how this will compare with other storms over the last decade or so?

The various models certainly don’t look good, but it’s hard to get a feel for how this will turn out on the ground.

I'm not a specialist, but I know a bit about how this works and how to read the models.

IMHO, at this point, Friday looks very likely to be going to be the nastiest storm for southern England since 1990. Not going to be as bad as the infamous storm of 1987, but that was an almost unique set of circumstances.

There's still time for this to be downgraded, but it is looking increasingly unlikely. The likely worst impacted areas may be starting to shift a little bit further north, however.
 

ScotGG

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A surface air pressure of 970mb doesn’t mean much by itself, it’s very much one of those situations where context is key. One factor that is contributing to the ferocity of these storms is the presence of a reasonably high pressure region over the south of Europe. It is the gradient in the pressure that is most important: that is to say the amount it varies between two different regions a given distance apart; what we relate to in meteorology as the pressure gradient force.

An excellent weather website/app I would recommend is windy.com, which gives access to a number of reputable weather forecast models. If you like plenty of data it’s certainly worth a look.
Sorry should have been more specific. General apple weather, BBC etc weather apps are often very poor. Specialised ones with access to models, data are better.
 

Dspatula

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Update on the Styal line (might even spell it right this time) tree on the line near Slade Lane junction.
 

bramling

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I'm not a specialist, but I know a bit about how this works and how to read the models.

IMHO, at this point, Friday looks very likely to be going to be the nastiest storm for southern England since 1990. Not going to be as bad as the infamous storm of 1987, but that was an almost unique set of circumstances.

There's still time for this to be downgraded, but it is looking increasingly unlikely. The likely worst impacted areas may be starting to shift a little bit further north, however.

I remember there was a significant storm in, I think, 2000. The date sticks out as it was just after the Hatfield derailment. There was also one in the early 2010s as I recall. Both these affected the London area heavily.

Anyone able to offer a comparison with these?
 

MikeWM

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I remember there was a significant storm in, I think, 2000. The date sticks out as it was just after the Hatfield derailment. There was also one in the early 2010s as I recall. Both these affected the London area heavily.

Anyone able to offer a comparison with these?

The former is probably 'Cyclone Oratia' in October 2000, indeed just days after Hatfield. I honestly don't remember a thing about that one :-/ , I just looked it up now, and there doesn't seem to be as much about it on the internet as you'd expect.

The other one will be the 'St. Jude's day' storm in 2013, which was indeed nasty; it seems inland gusts didn't go above 75mph though, and at this point Friday looks like it be worse than that in many places.
 

Jimini

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AWC's plan is now on the disruption page on the NRE website:

Check before you travel:
The following alterations are not currently shown in the National Rail Enquiries real-time Journey Planner. Avanti West Coast expect these changes to be showing in the online journey planner in the early hours of Friday 18 February.

Avanti West Coast plan to run 1 train every 2 hours on the following routes:

  • London Euston - Birmingham New Street
  • London Euston - Rugby
  • Manchester Piccadilly - Rugby
  • Liverpool Lime Street - Crewe
  • Rugby - Preston via Birmingham New Street
  • Preston - Rugby
  • Glasgow Central - Preston


There will be one morning service and one evening service between Holyhead and Crewe.
 

bramling

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The former is probably 'Cyclone Oratia' in October 2000, indeed just days after Hatfield. I honestly don't remember a thing about that one :-/ , I just looked it up now, and there doesn't seem to be as much about it on the internet as you'd expect.

The other one will be the 'St. Jude's day' storm in 2013, which was indeed nasty; it seems inland gusts didn't go above 75mph though, and at this point Friday looks like it be worse than that in many places.

The 2000 one really sticks out because of Hatfield. I remember going into London on a 365 after it had subsided, necessarily via Hertford, and at something like 40 mph all the way due to the gauge corner cracking mitigations. I think it was in that storm that a Piccadilly Line train had a nasty encounter with a tree at Osterley.

Can’t remember what I was doing during St Jude’s, but I remember the build up to it. I do recall it was quite well forecasted.
 

brad465

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Can’t remember what I was doing during St Jude’s, but I remember the build up to it. I do recall it was quite well forecasted.
Yes I remember train services on the Monday morning after (certainly in Kent at least) were cancelled by Sunday at the latest, before any impacts even happened, with the expectation that Network Rail needed to assess the lines before anything could run. What helped in a way was it was half-term week, so no school kids were travelling and more working parents were likely to be off work and not travelling either. Storms Dudley and Eugenie have also turned up in half-term week, and with the added factor of widespread working from home still featuring (although not as much as this time last year), so I expect these factors to limit travel losses as well.
 

D1537

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Storms Dudley and Eugenie have also turned up in half-term week, and with the added factor of widespread working from home still featuring (although not as much as this time last year), so I expect these factors to limit travel losses as well.
It isn't half-term until next week in most counties. London is this week, but (for example) Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool and Manchester are next week.
 

Jimini

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So 3 changes to get from London to Liverpool . Wtf?!

Indeed. It's the central line strategy from what I can see from my experience -- keep sections self-contained. Out east it's Liv St > Leytonstone, then Leytonstone > Loughton, then Loughton > Epping (and the same in reverse of course). Looks like AWC are doing something similar, albeit over a somewhat longer route!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It isn't half-term until next week in most counties. London is this week, but (for example) Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool and Manchester are next week.

Aye, it's half term down here at the moment (South Woodford).
 

BJames

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Photo showing the aforementioned tree at St Albans
Thanks for this, that's intense. So so glad I came back up to Nottingham Monday - originally I was considering travelling today...

We should be thankful that this didn’t occur with a diesel powered train on approach.

Anyone wondering why such caution is taken with regards to stopping services during high winds, see above.
Quite.
 

800001

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One wonders if the engineering work between Plymouth and Exeter this weekend could be cancelled, as anyone wishing to avoid travelling Friday, will be ushered onto coaches from Plymouth to Tiverton on Saturday. Surely NR could cancel the engineering and let GWR run some trains on Saturday at least?!
But isn’t engineering work planned many many months, even up to years in advance. With plant equipment and staff all booked to work this weekend, it might be many months again before they could be rebooked due to other commitments?
 

MP393

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In additional to the tree at Slade Lane yesterday evening blocking the Manchester Airport line, there is further damage to the OHL at Styal, so the 2A/2Fxx Crewe - Liverpool’s (and anything else booked via Styal) are diverting via Stockport to & from Wilmslow this morning. Trains can now run fine between Piccadilly & Airport however.

Ticket acceptance still in place with Metrolink for the scenic route via Wythenshawe
 

Bantamzen

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If there is one predictable thing about storms in the UK, it is that they will always trigger a debate about cutting down trees close to railway lines. However, whilst on the face of it this might seem like an easy solution, there are a whole raft of issues with such a policy.

For a start, how far back do you chop trees down? Some trees in the UK can grow more than 50 metres high, meaning that you would have to create a tree-free corridor of at least 100 metres plus the width of the track bed. And what about valleys or cuttings where landslides could bring trees down from further away? Do we opt for even wider "safe" zones? Then once all the trees are down, what do we do with the now exposed soil? We have a lot more heavy rain events than wind events, so more exposed soil around the railways seems to invite much more risk of landslides / collapses than trees coming down. And of course it's not just trees that can cause issues, all manner of human made items can find themselves causing issues for the railways. Do we also clear trackside of anything not screwed down for a couple of hundred metres either side?

Also tree-lined railways also act as corridors for wildlife to move about. Are we suggesting that we stuff them too in the name of preventing what for most of the time is no more than an inconvenience. Surely a more prudent, and more cost effective method is simply to enact measures such as slower line speeds during storms, and where very high winds are being experienced line closures, as happens today. It won't stop all accidents and incidents, but it seems a far more sensible approach than just ripping huge scars in the land and probably causing more problems than they would solve.
 

Moonshot

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If there is one predictable thing about storms in the UK, it is that they will always trigger a debate about cutting down trees close to railway lines. However, whilst on the face of it this might seem like an easy solution, there are a whole raft of issues with such a policy.

For a start, how far back do you chop trees down? Some trees in the UK can grow more than 50 metres high, meaning that you would have to create a tree-free corridor of at least 100 metres plus the width of the track bed. And what about valleys or cuttings where landslides could bring trees down from further away? Do we opt for even wider "safe" zones? Then once all the trees are down, what do we do with the now exposed soil? We have a lot more heavy rain events than wind events, so more exposed soil around the railways seems to invite much more risk of landslides / collapses than trees coming down. And of course it's not just trees that can cause issues, all manner of human made items can find themselves causing issues for the railways. Do we also clear trackside of anything not screwed down for a couple of hundred metres either side?

Also tree-lined railways also act as corridors for wildlife to move about. Are we suggesting that we stuff them too in the name of preventing what for most of the time is no more than an inconvenience. Surely a more prudent, and more cost effective method is simply to enact measures such as slower line speeds during storms, and where very high winds are being experienced line closures, as happens today. It won't stop all accidents and incidents, but it seems a far more sensible approach than just ripping huge scars in the land and probably causing more problems than they would solve.
But the reality is that trees do get cut down, and rightly so. Network Rail in my neck of the woods have been very proactive in recent years in doing this.
 

John Bishop

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But the reality is that trees do get cut down, and rightly so. Network Rail in my neck of the woods have been very proactive in recent years in doing this.
Lucky you! Send them north when they’re finished in your neck of the woods, as they’ve got their work cut out up here!!
 

skyhigh

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Why is it that whenever there is a gust of wind the Railway in this country completely collapses? Not just a disgrace, but a national embarrassment.
Not this storm, but the last time there was 'just a gust of wind'.

But yes by all means we should just crack on, Jacob says it's a national embarrassment.
 

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ld0595

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Looks like the damaged gantry near Kilwinning has already been repaired. Fantastic achievement by the NR team in what must've been very challenging conditions.
 

skyhigh

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There would be very little (if any) damage to the train. It should be able to proceed over the trampoline until the whole train has cleared it and then Network Rail can retrieve it.
Did you see the picture in the thread? No way on earth that train should just have been able to proceed :rolleyes:
 

Ken H

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One factor which may affect what damage occurs is wind direction. We had a storm earlier this year and the wind came from the north east, not the usual south west. Loads of trees went. Previoys SW gales had weeded out trees that were vulnerable to wind from that direction. But there had not been a NE gale for years so it found new weakness.
 

Mag_seven

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Can I just remind everyone that this thread is to specifically discuss the effects on the railway of storms Dudley and Eunice.

I know its tempting to bring up the related topic of climate change but this is not the thread or the forum section for it - we have a General Discussion section for that.


thanks
 

InOban

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Looks like the damaged gantry near Kilwinning has already been repaired. Fantastic achievement by the NR team in what must've been very challenging conditions.
And of course, because Scotrail had proactively shut down, there were no trains obstructing access by RRVs. They've posted a video on twitter.
 
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