Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

[Blockman]

In my neck of the woods, Northern have decided to terminate the Nottingham to Leeds and Lincoln to Leeds via Sheffield and Barnsley services at Sheffield "because of the forecasted severe weather", which is due this afternoon. However, the hourly Leeds and Huddersfield stopping services are apparently unaffected by the same severe weather. Northern have made many cancellations around Manchester too. Tough if you have to commute.

Yet in the forecast to be stormier West Midlands, the Snow Hill lines are running with slight delays only and few, if any cancellations. A difference in management attitude, perhaps?

 

[dosxuk]

Had an email from TfL regarding essential travel only.

Edit: beaten to it!

Me too. Which reminded me to unsubscribe from their emails.

You'd think with all the technology, especially around journey tracking, TfL have invested in, they could send advice like that to only the people who live in London / have used TfL services recently, not just a blanket one to everyone with an oyster account.

 

[Roast Veg]

Cautious about travel very early tomorrow between Leeds and London. The unit is coming straight off of depot, so barring units or crew failing to make it back in time fingers crossed.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

If someone choses to commute in the face of the weather warnings, that is their choice and their right - they just shouldn't be surprised later if it goes wrong

Many people don't choose to commute - plenty of jobs where one can't work from home. I happen to be one of those (many) people...

 

[bramling]

But its not the job of a TOC to dictate how someone should or should not live their life.

Not everyone is a commuter - there will be plenty of one way journeys, allowing people home before the weather hits.

If someone choses to commute in the face of the weather warnings, that is their choice and their right - they just shouldn't be surprised later if it goes wrong - and honestly, most customers will sympathise if the weather forecast turns out accurate.

Trains will run the way they've run for years and no doubt people will deal with it the way they've done for years. Run a service until you can't; resume when you can.

Whilst I agree in principle, nowadays there just aren’t the resources to cope with the level of disruption these events bring. Given the way many people simply do not make judicious decisions, I am resigned to the view that, to some extent, it’s the least worst option to make decisions for them, or at least strongly nudge in that direction.

If things go badly there simply aren’t going to be the resources to cope with thousands of stranded people.

 

[dosxuk]

Many people don't choose to commute - plenty of jobs where one can't work from home. I happen to be one of those (many) people...

You still have a choice. Your choice is between the weather service warnings, transport companies advice and the consequences of you not turning up to work. It may be an easy one for you to just put up with the weather and potential disruption, but it's still a choice at the end of the day.

 

[cambsy]

I have just looked at the Dawlish Beach Cam, and things look pretty good, no massive waves breaking, even though very windy, a lot better than I thought it would be, Hope everyone having to work out on a day like this is safe.

 

[96tommy]

I'm in W2 London and looking out my flat window the wind is definitely starting to pick up

 

[Howardh]

So far according to https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/daily-top-20/max the strongest wind has been at Mumbles @ 70mph, the lower end of the forcast warnings,

 

[bramling]

You still have a choice. Your choice is between the weather service warnings, transport companies advice and the consequences of you not turning up to work. It may be an easy one for you to just put up with the weather and potential disruption, but it's still a choice at the end of the day.

Th problem is that a lot of people will end up making choices against their better judgement, and might for example commence a journey, get stuck, and still not make it to work.

I’m due at work later, my expectation is that I won’t be setting out until things have subsided to a safe level. I’m no use to anyone on the A1 with a tree through my car roof.

 

[driverd]

In my neck of the woods, Northern have decided to terminate the Nottingham to Leeds and Lincoln to Leeds via Sheffield and Barnsley services at Sheffield "because of the forecasted severe weather", which is due this afternoon. However, the hourly Leeds and Huddersfield stopping services are apparently unaffected by the same severe weather. Northern have made many cancellations around Manchester too. Tough if you have to commute.

Yet in the forecast to be stormier West Midlands, the Snow Hill lines are running with slight delays only and few, if any cancellations. A difference in management attitude, perhaps?

In honesty, Northern have done a great job throughout all previous storms of running the full service as long as possible. Today is different, due to the weather forecast at the time of putting the timetable into play (yesterday afternoon). The primary reason for the service withdrawals is an expect blanket ESR - slower trains means longer journeys, that driver and guard who were going Leeds to Nottingham (usually a 4 hour round trip), will now be gone closer to 7/8 hours. This means the second part of the crew diagram will be uncovered, leaving units stranded in the wrong places and generally causing major disruption that can snowball quite quickly.

A strategic thinning of the timetable is a reasonably sensible and forward thinking approach, allowing service to continue with some resilience, rather than mass carnage that was entirely predictable (and no - not in terms of weather, in terms of the blanket ESR - although this approach does leave scope for service recovery when there is a line block etc).

Just to add - this is the approach taken by many other operators too - see Thameslink/Avanti, to name a few.

Many people don't choose to commute - plenty of jobs where one can't work from home. I happen to be one of those (many) people...

You probably haven't seen my messages in these storm threads previously - but I entirely sympathise with you; I'm whole heartedly in support of running as much service as is possible/sensible. I would, however, hope my point stands, that you would sympathise with disrupted services today?

 

[SCDR_WMR]

In my neck of the woods, Northern have decided to terminate the Nottingham to Leeds and Lincoln to Leeds via Sheffield and Barnsley services at Sheffield "because of the forecasted severe weather", which is due this afternoon. However, the hourly Leeds and Huddersfield stopping services are apparently unaffected by the same severe weather. Northern have made many cancellations around Manchester too. Tough if you have to commute.

Yet in the forecast to be stormier West Midlands, the Snow Hill lines are running with slight delays only and few, if any cancellations. A difference in management attitude, perhaps?

Snow Hill lines are quite sheltered really, and obviously are not electrified so a lot less likely to be damaged. Few spots prone to flooding but generally good lines for wind

 

[jfollows]

Lets hope they get collected before 11am.

Weather is very changeable in Cheshire, rainbows/gusts/heavy rain in the last 15 minutes

Agreed, we've had heavy rain in Wilmslow earlier, but it's currently very quiet, yesterday's forecast had strong winds from 7am but now it looks more like 11am.
Fortunately our bins have been collected this morning and I've retrieved the empty bins for me and my neighbours so one less thing to start flying.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I have just looked at the Dawlish Beach Cam, and things look pretty good, no massive waves breaking, even though very windy, a lot better than I thought it would be, Hope everyone having to work out on a day like this is safe.

The stretch of line through Dawlish is relatively sheltered from a south-westerly, and should be mostly off-shore.
Might be quite different at South Hams and east of Exmouth.

 

[Bald Rick]

But its not the job of a TOC to dictate how someone should or should not live their life.

well actually, in some circumstances, it is.

the TOCs have a duty of care to their passengers to keep them safe. When there is a weather forecast that predicts a risk to life from flying debris etc., then it is perfectly reasonable to say a) do Not travel and b) we won’t be running a service.

 

[brad465]

RED Warning now for London and the South East...

Shows how quickly things are changing, it's rare for that to happen, if not unprecedented at 4am!

This also means it's actually a storm now and matters, because as we know, if it doesn't affect London, it doesn't happen

Agree - very strange here now. Wind dropped, rain stopped and blue sky. Expect that not to last! ( things must be bad: the Marston Vale service and replacement buses are suspended :-0)

As an aside I happened to hear the shipping forecast this morning: Not sure you want to hear Storm10 or violent storm 11 at times very often! ( the scale only goes to 12 which is hurricane force)

PS - that was in the Thames shipping area not, say, Rockall or Biscay!

Maybe the centre of the low is passing over, which usually has lighter winds than the surrounding areas, in the same way that the eye of a hurricane is the calmest area, while the eyewall is the area with the strongest winds.

 

[cambsy]

just seen that London and South East, is in the Red Zone for later today, did not realise things were expected that bad in London etc, looks like it will be an horrendous afternoon in London, going to be a struggle running trains through those conditions, would not like to be working out in it today, all stay safe.

 

[Graham H]

That’s 115 kilometres/hour, which equals to about 70 miles/hour. I’ve screenshotted both figures for comparison to avoid confusion, both from Freshwater

no worries but thats definitely mph off the BBC site from last night. I just toggled to kmph and right now for Freshwater its showing 139 kmph (86mph) I wonder what the actual will be as thats usually the windiest place in the south and I just heard that 110mph gust has been recorded at the Needles

 

[DelayRepay]

From what I have seen, the storm's still on its way and expected to cause chaos, it's just a bit later than expected.

The wind's getting up here now.

Even if it passes without being too bad, I think the TOCs and Network Rail made the right call, based on the forecasts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’d say if anything the Met Office has held off on this one, in particular waiting until this morning to issue the red warning. A lot of people will have already headed to work, and that is going to cause a problem later even if this is at the lesser end of the predictions.

My alarm went off at 0615 to LBC, who announced it then, so it was at least in place by then. I doubt that many London commuters wouldn't have a smartphone which would have popped up a news alert...

 

[robert thomas]

That must be incorrect because weather related disruption is only in the UK and the European operators always carry on without incident...

Not in my experience. I once had to spend the night on a train at Munich because there were high winds around Hamburg and the Munich-Hamburg sleeper was not allowed to depart.

 

[Walter Whigham]

The red warning for London and the South East was issued at 4.00am.

 

[jfollows]

no worries but thats definitely mph off the BBC site. I just toggled to kmph and right now for Freshwater its showing 139 kmph (86mph) I wonder what the actual will be as thats usually the windiest place in the south

Guardian reports 92mph ("gusts of up to 92mph") at the Needles

 

[brad465]

Given that the Red Warning for the South East is valid from 10:00 just gone, I would expect they couldn't wait any longer than 04:00 to issue it, as confidence probably wasn't there yesterday evening, and waiting until this morning would be too late. Flood Warnings can be issued in the middle of night, but flood alerts are not permitted to be issued at such hours, for a similar reason.

 

[Horizon22]

Me too. Which reminded me to unsubscribe from their emails.

You'd think with all the technology, especially around journey tracking, TfL have invested in, they could send advice like that to only the people who live in London / have used TfL services recently, not just a blanket one to everyone with an oyster account.

Well I do so it was fair enough! Obviously there are plenty of people who live outside London (for instance the Home Counties) who might use TfL's services on a daily basis, or even one-off trips from further afield with the weekend coming up. Belt & braces really.

 

[Wivenswold]

Portland Bill lighthouse has already had a 75mph gust, so that's Hurricane-force. 20 miles north in Salisbury it's about half of that...at the moment. Coastal regions will be worst hit but there will be small pockets of high gusts inland, some will get lucky, others less so. It's impossible to forecast these localised events so the red warning covers the areas where such events are likely to occur.

 

[jkkne]

Isn't the weather warning system more impact led versus actual intensity of the weather?

i.e the forecasted winds in London are no higher than what the North experienced earlier this week and less than Storm Arwen but becuase of the infrastructure and density - London is more risky than a Leeds or a Newcastle

 

[Dave W]

In this case, all the upgrade to red did was confirm the likelihood - the amber warning was already in column 4 of the impact matrix. The upgrade just bumped it up to row 4 in terms of likelihood - the top right box is the only one that's red.

(EDIT: That's not to say there wasn't a conscious decision to upgrade it for other reasons - but outwardly at least, that's all that changed)

 

[SteelWeelApeal]

Do we know which lines are actually blocked yet?

 

[Peterthegreat]

Do we know which lines are actually blocked yet?

There appears to be a tree on the line north of Yeovil Pen Mill.