Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

[Djgr]

Lucky you, blowing well on the South Coast, 100mph+ on the Isle of Wight ! Storm Dudley didnt affect us at all so as with all these things some get it, some miss it. Storm Alex in Oct 2020 hit the south but on that day we were holding a wedding ceremony on a sunny beach in Scotland. For a relatively tiny island we do get a lot of different weather. By the way I'd be quite happy to shift Eunice up your way if you feel left out !

Yes. It does have a "Don't forget to stock up on toilet rolls" feel to it at the moment.

 

[deltic]

I've just had a quick look at Flightradar and BA583 Venice-Heathrow was sat circling over south London but has now started to head north - presumably being diverted? (wrong mode of transport, I know...)

Diverted to Newcastle!

 

[driverd]

well actually, in some circumstances, it is.

the TOCs have a duty of care to their passengers to keep them safe. When there is a weather forecast that predicts a risk to life from flying debris etc., then it is perfectly reasonable to say a) do Not travel and b) we won’t be running a service.

So that comes under the banner of being possible to run a service, it's not a TOC controlling people's decisions - but again and as has been pointed out repeatedly before - the wider social implications need to be considered. Stop the trains and people turn to other forms of transport.

Take myself, I book on at 1500 today, I'm done at about 0030. I can't take the train to work as my finish time is well past the last train home. Despite the warnings, I also can't work from home, and I have no intentions of enduring the furore of a driver manager or losing a daily leave for not turning in.

Personally, given the choice, I'd much rather be on a train. When I'm at work, I'll feel far safer driving the train than driving my car to work. I think thats also a sensible risk assessment. Trains are generally a great deal more substantial than cars, and I'd rather have a good couple of hundred tons against a tree than my cars 1.5. It's also fair to say a tree falling on my car will likely kill me, whilst a tree falling on the train will likely be far less life threatening.

Thus, the point I'm making:

TOCs are responsible for running a safe service, but their definition of "safe" needs to bare some resemblance to that of their customers, otherwise greater risk is created, taking a holistic view point (obviously canning services is bad for your business too).

Whilst there's much noise made about prioritising safety by not running trains, train crew are still expected to turn in at work, along with all those (as the poster below) who can't work from home. By canning services carte blanche, more risk is created all round.

Risk is a part of life and sometimes we have to accept that there's no perfect, 100% risk free, solution.

Of course I would. I have planned for massive disruption and this is why I drove to work today.

But I was replying to the OP about having a choice to commute to work. I work on the front line in a busy London hospital and patients rely on me turning up to work. I can't choose to do my job at home.

Completely agree, it's just a good job we don't live in Scotland as there'd likely be no service (or chance of getting to work) at all!

 

[al78]

But its not the job of a TOC to dictate how someone should or should not live their life.

Not everyone is a commuter - there will be plenty of one way journeys, allowing people home before the weather hits.

If someone choses to commute in the face of the weather warnings, that is their choice and their right - they just shouldn't be surprised later if it goes wrong - and honestly, most customers will sympathise if the weather forecast turns out accurate.

Trains will run the way they've run for years and no doubt people will deal with it the way they've done for years. Run a service until you can't; resume when you can.

Advising people not to travel is not dictating, and suspending services because they are concerned about the safety of their staff given the forecasts is perfectly reasonable. It is not reasonable for anyone to insist a service is carried out for their benefit in dangerous weather conditions externalising risk onto others because they can't be bothered to make alternative plans and wait it out for a few hours.

 

[800001]

Diverted to Newcastle!

Yes off topic, Heathrow I believe has had about 25 aborted landings so far. Several circling London now that have aborted.
Watching some landings on Speedbird TV on Facebook which is streaming live of all landings.

Sorry for going off topic, but that’s shows the extremely strong windows over west London.

 

[Bikeman78]

Well,where i am in South Wales so far at least,i reckon it was worse on Wednesday when nothing was cancelled.
Still time to get worse of course.
But in addition to the trains Stagecoach and Newport Transport are not running buses until at least one,if at all,and Phil Anslow says they may not run at all day.
For those who have to get to work( i can see a big hospital out of the window) this morning will not be easy.

I am not downplaying the situation but i’m sure this didn’t use to happen!

Still doesn't seem too bad now. My greenhouse door has come off but that's not unusual. Cardiff Bus not running at the moment but I'll be driving to work. What are people supposed to do if they have to work but don't drive? Walk? That's hardly safer than being in a bus.

 

[driverd]

Advising people not to travel is not dictating, and suspending services because they are concerned about the safety of their staff given the forecasts is perfectly reasonable. It is not reasonable for anyone to insist a service is carried out for their benefit in dangerous weather conditions externalising risk onto others because they can't be bothered to make alternative plans and wait it out for a few hours.

I entirely agree - advising people not to travel isn't dictating - cancelling all services, however, is.

Re: cancellations, please see my post above. Despite it being my personal risk thats mitigated by cancelling the train, I'm still expected at work, on time, thus taking the very risk were supposed to be mitigating against.

I appreciate your concern, but I'm quite happy to go out and drive a train, just as I'm quite happy to turn up at work.

 

[al78]

This also means it's actually a storm now and matters, because as we know, if it doesn't affect London, it doesn't happen

Yet red weather warnings have been in place for SW England and S Wales for the last two days, so nothing to do with London. But yes, a given destructive wind in London is more significant than in a lightly populated area because the structural damage, insured/economic loss, disruption and death potental is so much higher.

 

[D6130]

Since my last update from Hebden Bridge, just over an hour ago, I can now report that we have heavy rain and a light-to-moderate breeze. Calder Valley still running a full service, with most trains now running to time.

 

[Peterthegreat]

The strongest winds are south of the storm centre, so over England and Wales. The main issue in Scotland is heavy snow as the front and rain wrapping around the low comes up against cold air. It is the temperature gradient across the UK's latitudes which is providing the energy for this storm.


Surely the industry can only act on the forecasts given, they have no way of knowing in advance if they are going to be accurate, so can't see why they would be to blame. It would be worse to ignore the warnings on the basis they got it wrong once only to end up with many casualties, that would be recklessness.

As i said upthread I agree. However it will not stop criticism of the industry.

 

[al78]

Isn't the weather warning system more impact led versus actual intensity of the weather?

i.e the forecasted winds in London are no higher than what the North experienced earlier this week and less than Storm Arwen but becuase of the infrastructure and density - London is more risky than a Leeds or a Newcastle

I think it is to do with intensity relative to climatology, which is correlated with impact potential. A given wind speed might trigger amber warnings in the southern counties which would only trigger yellow warnings in Scotland, because damage and casualty potential goes up with population density. Similarly in the summer, the thresholds for heatwave warnings are higher in the south than in the north, because southern summers are warmer on average.

 

[EAD]

Plenty of go arounds and some diverts at Heathrow. Appreciate this is a rail forum, but flow rate was already cut at Heathrow to deal with expected issues and provide more spacing, with sustained winds jut shy of 40 mph and gusts of 56 mph at present at heading 220, so cross wind component to deal with given runway orientation is 270. Am in SW London and wind has started to pick up since about 11am.

 

[Irascible]

Wierdly calm ( definitely windy! the sea is quite flat though ) in places on the SE Devon coast - shouldn't be any problems at Dawlish atm, the wind is blowing straight off the shore. Newquay airport is reporting 50kt winds gusting to 70kts though - fortunately the tide is going out on most of the atlantic coast.

Someone mentioned BA Chicago-Gatwick diverting to Geneva(!).

 

[MrB]

Someone mentioned BA Chicago-Gatwick diverting to Geneva(!).

Geneva!? Seems rather drastic.

 

[EAD]

Yes BA296 into Heathrow - was their chosen filed divert I understand which they chose after 2 attempts. Probably chosen to allow for delays and the storm moving into the near continent.

 

[al78]

Portland Bill lighthouse has already had a 75mph gust, so that's Hurricane-force. 20 miles north in Salisbury it's about half of that...at the moment. Coastal regions will be worst hit but there will be small pockets of high gusts inland, some will get lucky, others less so. It's impossible to forecast these localised events so the red warning covers the areas where such events are likely to occur.

That is not hurricane force. The Beaufort scale refers to 10-minute mean winds, not peak gusts. Mean winds will likely be in the force 8-10 range.

Needles recorded a 122 mph gust, mean wind speed near 90 mph, but that is a very exposed station and not representitive of the southern counties in general. Widespread 80-90+ mph, even over 100 mph gusts along the south coast, some of these may be underestimates because some weather stations are starting to lose power or suffer damage to equipment.

 

[endicomark69@g]

SW London too here and if it's any help I can estimate gusts above 15mph - and over as our neighbour's fence has just gone over into our garden. Again.

Being fair this happens if you stand on our decking and breath out in their general direction on a calm day anyway.

B&Q will be selling some more plywood battens tomorrow.

 

[Dave W]

Yep - it's coming over Crouch Hill and straight down Crouch End Broadway now - lamppost outside my window does not look happy about it! Thames Water have, however, appeared to re-build the roadwork barriers and - shock of all shocks - actually get on with the bloody work they're there for!

For what it's worth - the buses, and general traffic, are as copious as normal.

 

[muz379]

Since my last update from Hebden Bridge, just over an hour ago, I can now report that we have heavy rain and a light-to-moderate breeze. Calder Valley still running a full service, with most trains now running to time.

Unless it's changed since yesterday the blanket speed restriction up north doesn't start till 12:00

 

[SteelWeelApeal]

This is definitely the windiest I have seen it just west of Reading in 20 years of living here

 

[D6130]

Unless it's changed since yesterday the blanket speed restriction up north doesn't start till 12:00

Thanks....I hadn't realised that.

 

[EAD]

Back on track, SWR have just tweeted a complete service suspension until further notice.

 

[BayPaul]

For all those wondering where the wind is, I can confirm that in Torbay the wind is howling... I would say just past its peak and starting to reduce. Strong enough to suck the water out of the toilet u-bend, and to send a lot of fence panels and branches flying, even on a road that is relatively sheltered from westerlies, and in an area outside the Red warning. As others have said, the wind is offshore here, so Dawlish should be OK, but even so, fairly large waves are forming in the bay. Looks like the forecasters have done a superb job at predicting this - it looks like it is bang on their prediction

 

[800001]

Roof on the line at Ashchurch.
1Z43 Bristol to Derby divert to Gloucester to await the like reopening.

 

[MrB]

Southeastern looking to close ALL mainline routes asap

https://twitter.com/Se_Railway/status/1494638816820346882

 

[bramling]

I entirely agree - advising people not to travel isn't dictating - cancelling all services, however, is.

Re: cancellations, please see my post above. Despite it being my personal risk thats mitigated by cancelling the train, I'm still expected at work, on time, thus taking the very risk were supposed to be mitigating against.

I appreciate your concern, but I'm quite happy to go out and drive a train, just as I'm quite happy to turn up at work.

It’s all very well being happy to be on a train, but if something happens others will have to come out and perform some kind of rescue, highly likely by road or even foot.

I completely agree in principle that we should be attempting to run, and not to push people into more dangerous modes like cars. The way to do that is to run either side of things, but suspend for the worst part. I’m surprised the London operators are running at this time, to be honest, they should IMO have been advertising a shutdown from around 9. That gets the more critical workers in, which is really the only thing which matters.

 

[Suraggu]

All lines blocked at Banbury after reports that a roof has been blown off a Network Rail building and onto the line.

Fallen tree blocking the line south of High Wycombe and between Great Missenden and Amersham.

Chiltern Railways has stopped all services as of 1157.

 

[MikeWM]

Back on track, SWR have just tweeted a complete service suspension until further notice.

That's SWR who said they weren't planning on reducing their service *at all* late on Wednesday afternoon (post #71). As I said then 'good luck with that'.

 

[kristiang85]

Yes BA296 into Heathrow - was their chosen filed divert I understand which they chose after 2 attempts. Probably chosen to allow for delays and the storm moving into the near continent.

This is fun to follow

 

[800001]

Both up lines Stevenage blocked due to debris on line.