Russia invades Ukraine

[adc82140]

BBC live feed

Interesting latest post on the BBC live feed. I mean you must have to be just as mad to get a programme on their state TV.

Are they not over estimating their own ability here?

Kiselyov has been spouting this line for quite some time. It's nothing new from him and is for domestic consumption. If they wanted us to hear it, RT would report it, and they are not.

 

[Strathclyder]

Today's best thing on Twitter in response to all this goes to this exchange:

https://twitter.com/Dictionarycom/status/1498033493561032710

View attachment 110794

The kind of nonsensical tweet the far-right imbeciles over in the GOP and the repulsive talking heads at Fox 'News' (Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham* etc) would blindly lap up.

*: Why I'm drawing more attention to it I don't know, but she's made some particularly infuriating/disgusting comments in regards to President Zelenskyy's televised speeches in Russian, calling them pathetic etc. I shouldn't be surprised considering the depths to which Fox News has stooped in the past, but even so...

 

[DarloRich]

Putin has just put Russia's strategic nuclear force on "special alert"

There were a lot of words in the statement to say very little and the words used are designed to be unsettling and to try and weaken the response to his outrageous invasion of an independent country that hasn't gone to his plan.

Why not just say: due to the crisis I have order our strategic rocket forces to status 2 ( or what ever). Why use such a convoluted phrases as set out below:

“Senior officials of the leading Nato countries also allow aggressive statements against our country, therefore I order the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff [of the Russian Armed Forces] to transfer the deterrence forces of the Russian army to a special mode of combat duty,”

it is meaningless rhetoric designed to scare, deflect, try to break apart the western response and scare Ukraine. I expected such a response as soon as the sanctions were imposed just like I expect cyber attacks very soon.

I think these talks will end up with Putin making outrageous demands, Ukraine will say no way, and Putin will frame it as them being obstructive to peace.

He's too far in now to withdraw, I feel. His presidency will probably be over if he does that.

Of course - that's the whole point. However, Ukraine cant give the Russians the opportunity to say they rejected peace talks. Also if he can kill/capture a few high ranking Ukrainians then so much the better!

Whether or not he's bluffing, it's still an extremely scary and frankly dangerous move. Right now, even the sheer thought of it makes me feel sick.

Of course it is a worry and a concern but step back from it: What does Putin want out of this war and this announcement? How would a nuclear war achieve those goals? Would a leader (even a lunatic - which I don't think Putin is) be willing to trade Moscow, St Petersberg, Omsk, Volgograd and more AND all the people in them for those goals? I don't think so.

Somewhere out at sea, every day, is a Vangaurd class submarine ready to launch the UK nuclear detergent and to do so at very short notice. Putin knows this. He also knows that nuclear forces are always at high alert to respond to any attack. There isn't much point having them if they aren't ready to fire relatively quickly. He knows that those submarine carried missiles are almost invulnerable and will come flying back at him if he does anything silly. Do you think an even semi rational person would risk that? ( of course that is only the UK deterrent - USA and France have their own forces to chuck into the equation - that's the point of deterrence and NATO)

Then look at the wording of the statement. I would be interested to know what his words actually mean and which forces are actually covered by this instruction. I note the statement says "Russian army". It doesn't say "Russian" and so we can assume that this does not include any submarine carried missiles. It also doesn't say Strategic Rocket forces ( aka ICBM missiles) or Russian Airforce which might let us assume that air carried missiles/bombs are not covered and that ICBM are not being stepped up in readiness. Therefore we might be able to assume this relates only to smaller tactical weapons or shorter range missiles. That reduces the worry a bit. Short range or tactical weapons wont be able to reach us. We are talking weapons with a 300-400 miles range.

They could be used in Ukraine but for what purpose? They are really designed to overcome a tactical problem or stalemate on the battle field. ( The Russian ones are/were designed to punch a hole in cold war NATO lines after their advance had been checked by NATO forces in Germany and let their armoured forces pour through into Western Europe. The NATO ones are/were designed to stop that) While Ukraine are putting up a fight and making the Russians pay for their actions they are not creating a stalemate. Russian forces are advancing in many parts of the country and the capital is in danger of being surrounded. They are moving slower than I think they expected but they are moving. That isn't really the conditions required for tactical nuclear weapons.

Finally I note the UK and US governments, while condemning the move, seem relatively calm about the statement made. Their condemnation seems quite restrained and the comments seem quite sensible, quiet and not designed to escalate the situation.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

But the Daily Express will still lead with "Putin announces he WILL nuke us NEXT WEEK - Purely for the sake of it"

 

[Master Cutler]

The Russia Ukraine hatred has been simmering for decades. I recall an incident back in the 1990s at the Llangollen International Eisteddfod when the Russian women refused to share a sales tent with the Ukrainian women because they were, in their opinion, inferior. Russia won't allow Ukraine to get their country back under control as it will be a great humiliation to the racist war criminal Putin.
Russia will get their way even if they have to flatten Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

Russia will get their way even if they have to flatten Ukraine.

This is almost entirely Putin's war, not Russia's. It's not widely supported.

(That's not to say that nobody supports it, but it's not wildly popular.)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This is almost entirely Putin's war, not Russia's. It's not widely supported.

(That's not too say that nobody supports it, but it's not wildly popular).

Best outcome here now is Russian people take things into there own hands otherwise all the gains they have made will be gone. No access to Western goods along with there own economy blowing up in a matter of weeks setting them back to teh days of Stalin. All countries now need to to whatever they do below teh surface to support this outcome.

 

[DarloRich]

Being the age of 76, I shall never forget my early years at Manchester University during the October 1962 nuclear stand-off between the Russian and American sides caused by Russian ships approaching Cuba with certain cigar-shaped missile objects when the ultimate disaster could have fallen onto mankind.

But we aren't quite in the same situation surely. That was a cold war direct confrontation between the USA & USSR. This situation is a proxy war at best ( and I dont think it is even that)

Being the age of 72 (and also a Man University graduate), I too remember the Cuban Missile crisis. Kruschev (eventually) backed off - which is exactly what Zelensky and NATO should be doing right now. All Putin wants is NOT to have NATO on his direct border - just like the USA didn't want nuclear weapons on their border back in 1962.

Kruschev backed off when he and Kennedy did a deal via back channels. There was a trade of US missiles in Turkey ( later and under the table ) for Soviet missiles in Cuba. It allowed both sides a way out while saving face.

BTW I am unsure how Putin missed his border with that well known NATO member Norway ( which was there since 1947) and more recently his border with the Baltic countries. Perhaps he should get himself off to Specsavers or perhaps that is just an excuse for invading.

Any meeting to resolve this should take place in Poland, Turkey or Belgium.

Or Switzerland which is the usual neutral venue for such talks.

When the Wall came down in 1989 (thanks to Gorbachev), he was promised (as part of the deal to reunify East & West Germany) that there would be no further NATO expansion eastwards. You can check this out here: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-...on-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early This is the TRUTH!!!

Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner Slavic Studies Panel Addresses “Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?”

Since then NATO has expanded into 12 countries further eastwards. The Soviet Union (then) and Russia (now) was lied to, duped and "conned"by the USA (who basically run NATO) in to believing that it could trust the West. I am no supporter of Putin but I can sure understand why he is so pissed off!

This is not correct. No guarantees were given. Gorbachev neither asked for nor was given any formal guarantees that there would be no further expansion of NATO beyond the territory of a united Germany. There is an article from Chatham House here that might help: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/0...03-russia-was-promised-nato-would-not-enlarge

 

[philosopher]

They could be used in Ukraine but for what purpose? They are really designed to overcome a tactical problem or stalemate on the battle field. ( The Russian ones are/were designed to punch a hole in cold war NATO lines after their advance had been checked by NATO forces in Germany and let their armoured forces pour through into Western Europe. The NATO ones are/were designed to stop that) While Ukraine are putting up a fight and making the Russians pay for their actions they are not creating a stalemate. Russian forces are advancing in many parts of the country and the capital is in danger of being surrounded. They are moving slower than I think they expected but they are moving. That isn't really the conditions required for tactical nuclear weapons.

I very much expect this war to end in a pyrrhic victory for Putin, in that he will conquer Ukraine, but will suffer heavy loses during the invasion and the subsequent aftermath. Plus Russia will face diplomatic isolation and a near certain economic recession.

While there are no good outcomes from this conflict, such an outcome, would be one of the least worst outcomes. Putin would not escalate the conflict using tactical nuclear or other unconventional weapons, as Putin would not need to militarily and such a move would leave Putin’s Russia even more isolated. Second Russia would be so weakened from the conflict, that Putin would unable to wage any aggressive wars for the foreseeable future. Third, for Ukraine, the resistance movement would be very well placed to form a new government when Putin goes, which in such an outcome would be sooner rather than later.

 

[JamesT]

Somewhere out at sea, every day, is a Vangaurd class submarine ready to launch the UK nuclear detergent and to do so at very short notice. Putin knows this. He also knows that nuclear forces are always at high alert to respond to any attack. There isn't much point having them if they aren't ready to fire relatively quickly. He knows that those submarine carried missiles are almost invulnerable and will come flying back at him if he does anything silly. Do you think an even semi rational person would risk that? ( of course that is only the UK deterrent - USA and France have their own forces to chuck into the equation - that's the point of deterrence and NATO)

I know they talk about the London Laundromat, but launching detergent?

From https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7353/CBP-7353.pdf

Each boat carries eight missiles and a total of 40 warheads. Unlike the hair-trigger alert system of the Cold War, the missiles are “detargeted”, meaning that no target coordinates are pre-programmed into the system. Normally, the readiness to fire is measured in days, rather than minutes, although that is considered more of a political gesture than an operational constraint and the time could be shortened again if required during a crisis period.

So it’s not clear how rapidly we could respond. Though possibly threats like the one Putin has made might lead to orders to target the missiles just in case?

 

[Gloster]

Just how far have we got with the ‘most punishing sanctions’ on Russian interests? It seems that so far only a handful of companies and individuals have been named; most of them were probably well prepared. Meanwhile, London’s finest lawyers and accountants are probably beavering away (at £000s a day) preparing challenges and shifting money around. And will Lubov Chernukhin be on the list?

 

[HSTEd]

So it’s not clear how rapidly we could respond. Though possibly threats like the one Putin has made might lead to orders to target the missiles just in case?

The nice thing about nuclear submarines is that they are in no rush.

And armageddon coming to Russia a day later doesn't really change much does it?

 

[Scotrail314209]

Struggling to settle again tonight. I really am trying to not get emotional while keeping myself informed, but Putin’s ‘threat’ has really made me scared for what this week will entail.

I really hope tomorrow’s talks invoke some form of peace treaty to end this nasty conflict.

 

[nanstallon]

Struggling to settle again tonight. I really am trying to not get emotional while keeping myself informed, but Putin’s ‘threat’ has really made me scared for what this week will entail.

I really hope tomorrow’s talks invoke some form of peace treaty to end this nasty conflict.

Let's hope that the talks are productive. I remember Krushchev saying that after a nuclear war, the survivors would envy the dead. I'm no fan of the USSR, with all its domestic repression and rule over most of Eastern Europe, but generally I felt its leaders tended to be more responsible than US Presidents. Even Brezhnev's invasion of Afghanistan was not altogether bad - if we'd left the USSR to deal with Afghanistan instead of funding religious nutcases, who later turned on the West, wouldn't the world now be a happier place? And Gorbachev deserves credit for ending the Cold War. Sadly, we are now going back to those days.

 

[hst43102]

Somewhere out at sea, every day, is a Vangaurd class submarine ready to launch the UK nuclear detergent and to do so at very short notice.

Nuclear detergent. Always ready to tackle some extra strong stains!

 

[Trackman]

The nice thing about nuclear submarines is that they are in no rush.

It's funny, when Radio 4 LW went off the air due a technical fault the subs they had to contact base to check that all was well (yes, a quaint British tradition- they monitor R4 LW). So if R4 LW goes off for about 24 hours head for the cellar., or for me outside Charing Cross station!

Struggling to settle again tonight. I really am trying to not get emotional while keeping myself informed, but Putin’s ‘threat’ has really made me scared for what this week will entail.

I really hope tomorrow’s talks invoke some form of peace treaty to end this nasty conflict.

He's not 'threatening' anything really- it's all bluster. The nuclear command would have been high alert from day one of the invasion anyway.
Try to remember with any large nation the first rule is self-preservation.
Imagine being the person who started an all-out nuclear war, with MAD in mind- What would that look like in the history books? (if there any left!).
Try reading a good book or put a comedy film on or something rather than worrying. I'm more worried about my fuel bill hike and some dodgy tiles on my roof (which I need to sort out).

 

[HSTEd]

I have been rather depressed watching Ukrainian troops and militia fight valiantly against almost inevitable defeat.

Indeed it has only got harder over the last couple of days because the seeds of hope are sprouting - even though the balance of materiel is still hugely in Russia's favour.

 

[TheEdge]

Although I've been shaken a bit by Vlad's threat today I was chatting to my dad who was pretty nonplussed by the whole situation. He seems to feel the MAD situation of the 1980s was worse than this.

Interestingly my friend asked her dad the same and his experience of the 1980s on the other side of the Iron Curtain was similar, these sort of threats and actions being "business as usual"

 

[adc82140]

A bit of context. Russia has four nuclear readiness states. Putin yesterday ordered an increase from the bottom one to the second from bottom. The US is at Defcon 3 and has been for a while. It was raised without a fuss. Putin just loves the theatre that goes with this.

As with Covid, there are always "experts" in the media who like to sow a bit of panic.

 

[Scotrail314209]

A bit of context. Russia has four nuclear readiness states. Putin yesterday ordered an increase from the bottom one to the second from bottom. The US is at Defcon 3 and has been for a while. It was raised without a fuss. Putin just loves the theatre that goes with this.

As with Covid, there are always "experts" in the media who like to sow a bit of panic.

Part of me was mulling it over this morning that it might’ve just been a stunt for theatre purposes. “Ooh look at me I’m Putin and I have nukes.”

 

[dgl]

Seems to be that some sanctions seem to be having some effect, with companies being ordered to sell 80% of the foreign currency reserves and it's key interest rate pushed up to 20%.

 

[squizzler]

Just how far have we got with the ‘most punishing sanctions’ on Russian interests? It seems that so far only a handful of companies and individuals have been named; most of them were probably well prepared. Meanwhile, London’s finest lawyers and accountants are probably beavering away (at £000s a day) preparing challenges and shifting money around. And will Lubov Chernukhin be on the list?

I still think we need to be nabbing any oligarchs connected with the Putin regime - and their assets - and putting them into internment. For their own protection of course, otherwise they might be torn to pieces on the street by the angry mob!

The contrast between "due process" and kid gloves when dealing with the well-known associates of Putin over here and the arbitrary fate for those in the way of Putin's military adventures is explained very nicely by Marina Hyde of the Guardian:

It’s Putin’s tale of two cities – London for his oligarchs, Kyiv for his bombs​

Our capital pulls its punches when it comes to penalising Russia’s richest, but Putin shows no such mercy to Ukraine

If I look out of the window as I’m writing this, I can see the grand, stuccoed Russian embassy in London, which some years ago mounted a large screen on the wall outside, on which it likes to broadcast its frequently obnoxious Twitter feed to passersby. If I look at the television screen in the room in which I’m sitting, I can see a despairing Ukrainian woman throwing her broken windows from her apartment building in the aftermath of a shelling. So yes: it was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

Meanwhile in Barcelona, the city is rediscovering some of its Republican spirit from the equally bloody civil war of 1930s:

Could sanctions leave oligarchs’ super yachts high and dry in Spain?​

Among the many gleaming white boats lining Barcelona’s historic port, the super yachts of the super-rich stand out.

If there are fewer of them than usual at the moment it’s because most are still wintering in the Caribbean. However, overshadowing the small fry (super yachts are roughly defined as starting from 25 metres in length) are a number of palatial vessels, including yachts owned by the King of Bahrain, Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie, and media mogul Barry Diller.


Among them are three vessels belonging to some of Russia’s wealthiest men. They have a combined value of hundreds of millions of dollars. Their owners could be forgiven for feeling a little nervous as western governments ponder who to target next in a threatened barrage of sanctions against Russia in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

[AlterEgo]

Part of me was mulling it over this morning that it might’ve just been a stunt for theatre purposes. “Ooh look at me I’m Putin and I have nukes.”

He’s distracting the home front from a very costly day of invasion.

 

[Giugiaro]

Yesterday I witnessed the demonstrations being held in Lisbon in front of the Russian Embassy.

I found it beautiful that all hatred was pointed towards Putin. No one was wishing malice towards the Russian.

What I found interesting was the fact that Ukrainians found it unacceptable for "Grândola, Vila Morena" to be sang.
I believe it's due to its strong connection to the Communist movement in Portugal?

Which, BTW, the Portuguese Communist Party was clearly absent from these demonstrations. Goes to show that Russia, even after the Soviet colapse, still has power projected outside of its borders!

 

[tommy2215]

Given the likelihood of Russian cyber attacks soon, its a very good idea to protect as many online accounts as you can to the absolute max. And protect your computer as well.

 

[Typhoon]

He’s distracting the home front from a very costly day of invasion.

He will need to distract the home front:

Russia has more than doubled its key interest rate after the rouble slumped by 30% against the US dollar.

Bank of Russia said it raised the rate to 20% from 9.5% to help cushion the impact on prices of the rouble's slide.

...

On Sunday, Russia's central bank appealed for calm amid fears that there could be a run on the country's banks.

Will Walker-Arnott, senior investment manager at Charles Stanley, told the BBC's Today programme that "it looks like Russia is increasingly becoming an economic pariah, increasingly isolated from the global financial system".

I'm personally sorry for the impact it will have on ordinary Russians, particularly those who have protested against the war. Hopefully short term pain for long term gain.

Maybe Putin will realise that modern warfare is not just fought with missiles and bullets. Hopefully gentlemen would appear to collect medals in the same way that I used to collect stamps and who wear ridiculously tall peaked caps will pay him a visit and tell him its time to retire to a dacha somewhere close to Vladivostok.

source https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60550992

 

[Scotrail314209]

Given the likelihood of Russian cyber attacks soon, its a very good idea to protect as many online accounts as you can to the absolute max. And protect your computer as well.

I wonder if Putin's nuclear warning is in retaliation to NATO stating that cyberattacks could warrant an activation of Article 5.

 

[AM9]

On a slightly different tack, Ukraine has the same track gauge as Russia and most of the other part of the the former USSR. Poland like most of the EU has standard gauge. Are there change of gauge facilities at border stations or were there no through trains at frontier locations like Przemyśl? Assuming Ukraine doesn't become ruled by a Russian puppet as are Belarus, the links into the standard gauge nations of Europe will have a new significance.

 

[DanNCL]

On a slightly different tack, Ukraine has the same track gauge as Russia and most of the other part of the the former USSR. Poland like most of the EU has standard gauge. Are there change of gauge facilities at border stations or were there no through trains at frontier locations like Przemyśl? Assuming Ukraine doesn't become ruled by a Russian puppet as are Belarus, the links into the standard gauge nations of Europe will have a new significance.

1520mm tracks continue through to Przemysl Glowny in Poland. There are change of gauge facilities there but it’s quicker to take everyone off the Ukrainian train there and transfer them to an EU train.

Standard gauge tracks from both Hungary and Slovakia continue to Chop in Ukraine, so standard gauge trains can evacuate civilians from Ukraine direct into Hungary and Slovakia. There are change of gauge facilities that allow through trains from the rest of Ukraine to the EU (and was used right up until Wednesday last week by a through Kyiv-Wien train), but as with the Polish example it’s quicker to make everyone change trains.

 

[87015]

There have been emergency passenger trains with UZ stock running on the broad gauge freight line well into Poland, which is I believe basically unheard of.