Russia invades Ukraine

[Bald Rick]

That was Grand Moff Tarkin (played by Peter Cushing)

My goodness you’re quite right. That didn’t end well - in rather shorter order!

(assuming you mean Peter Cushing the Actor, not the one building the Midland Metro)

 

[Welly]

Get the popcorn out:

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14homfg/reaction_from_the_frontline_to_the_news_from/

 

[43096]

This is unlikely to be a successful military coup in Russia.

It's not a coup... It's a "special military insurrection".

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

My goodness you’re quite right. That didn’t end well - in rather shorter order!

(assuming you mean Peter Cushing the Actor, not the one building the Midland Metro)

No one could roll his ’r’s in quite as menacing a manner as Cushing (the actor!)

 

[Parjon]

Rumours currently abound that Lushashenko has just fled Belarus on reports of similar events there. Not sure how much truth there is in it

Where could they flee to? They only places I can think of that would be marginally safe for them are Korea (North), and the PRC. Even if there are other corrupt countries out there willing to take them, they wouldn't be safe from extradition or "other".

I suppose he could always claim asylum here, if he can afford the dinghy fare.

 

[nlogax]

Where could they flee to? They only places I can think of that would be marginally safe for them are Korea (North), and the PRC. Even if there are other corrupt countries out there willing to take them, they wouldn't be safe from extradition or "other".

I suppose he could always claim asylum here, if he can afford the dinghy fare.

Allegedly Turkey or the UAE. Not sure if it's his family that fled or him as well.

 

[kristiang85]

Putin's plane (no idea who was on it) was tracked heading towards Kazakhstan then turned back at the border. Interesting.

 

[DustyBin]

Putin's plane (no idea who was on it) was tracked heading towards Kazakhstan then turned back at the border. Interesting.

Yes I saw that.

It may or may not be related, but apparently Putin has asked the CSTO to intervene but the Kazakhs have said it’s an “internal issue”. If he has actually asked for outside help he’s in real trouble.

Seemingly Wagner are now a couple of hours from Moscow.

I should add that the above is taken from various Twitter accounts so treat with caution.

 

[nw1]

Allegedly Turkey or the UAE. Not sure if it's his family that fled or him as well.

Ah, Erdogan, that well-known Putin tribute act. Might have guessed he would be receptive.

 

[Bluejays]

I hope the Ukrainians have a bloody good go at them over the next few days . Time to help Wagner and the Russians blow holes in their precious motherland ! I'd imagine the russian army units seen as most handy/loyal will be getting recalls to Russia to try and protect Putin. The ones left in Ukraine might be best advised to run away, before they turn into sunflower food.

 

[Ivor]

I hope the Ukrainians have a bloody good go at them over the next few days . Time to help Wagner and the Russians blow holes in their precious motherland ! I'd imagine the russian army units seen as most handy/loyal will be getting recalls to Russia to try and protect Putin. The ones left in Ukraine might be best advised to run away, before they turn into sunflower food.

Yes with Putin today with a different problem on his blood drenched hands here’s hoping Ukraine can not just give him a headache but a severe migraine.

Slava Ukraini

 

[Sm5]

Various Telegram channels showing footage of Wagner passing by Lipetsk on the M4.
Thats 600 miles from Rostov, and more than half way (c300 miles) to Moscow.

who would have thought we would be reading about the defence of Moscow in this war ?

Battlelines could be at the Oka River all the bridges closed blocked both directions.
very high bridges and a wide river.
Interesting to see if Russia would blow them, but seeing them captured puts Wagner into Moscow Oblast.

 

[kristiang85]

Various Telegram channels showing footage of Wagner passing by Lipetsk on the M4.
Thats 600 miles from Rostov, and more than half way (c300 miles) to Moscow.

who would have thought we would be reading about the defence of Moscow in this war ?

Apparently they should be there in 6 hours. Tonight should be very interesting. Some heavy fortifications going up on the road to Moscow.

 

[43096]

Meanwhile - and somewhat unsurprisngly - a Ukraine defence official has been quoted as saying "We are little-by-little running out of popcorn."

 

[Annetts key]

With the vast majority of the Russian army in Ukraine (said to be over 90%, maybe over 93%), that leaves only 10% across the rest of Russia. And Russia is a very large country.

If some of them are in the part of Russia to protect the homeland from the Ukraine border, plus many will be in the south and east of the country, that leaves a paper thin number available to try to defend against Wagner…

And how many of these actually have had suitable training, let alone experience? Plus, with the equipment losses Russia has been suffering, do they have much equipment and ammunition available?

If some of the army are recalled from Ukraine, or indeed from anywhere else, at the current rate that the Wagner forces are moving, they may well arrive too late. Possibly long after the party has finished!

The Russian air force should be able to respond quicker, but apart from some helicopters and one fixed wing aircraft (as far as I know at the time of writing this), they don’t appear to me making the news. So are a lot of them avoiding getting involved in this?

 

[172007]

Question is are there any friendly Brigades in the Russian Army Moscow district who will side with Wagner, are biding their time and awaiting to see which units seriously engage Wagner and pincer them whilst simutainously securing the Kremlin?

 

[Sm5]

I think wagners advantage is how unthinkable this is.
we in the west are surprised, imagine how your average Russian is ?

imagine a Scottish regiment marching on London, showing restraint, you’d go out and watch, let them past, view it with interest, meanwhile the leadership will be making statements supporting London.

But if Wagner walks into Red Square, find Putins not at home, and Prigozhin lights a fat one, sits in his chair with his feet on that massive table…

in some ways this reminds me of the protest at Capitol hill, just Russian style… all it needs its populist support to believe they can do it and get away with it... then if the soldiers dont have heart to shoot there own, then its game over.

it neednt be a war, i’m not even sure Russian armed forces have enough locally, fast enough to do it, without using air power.. which could go badly wrong for Putin very quickly if mass civilians get caught.

Meanwhile in Belarus…. If Moscow goes revolutionary, and everyone already knows lukaschenko left town.. theres never been much support for him, Russia or the war I’d imagine people going on the streets very soon too.

people just need to believe.. wagner in Moscow will probably do it, and he probably has more support there than other places, he justs needs to show up and prove It.

Putin would be better advised to welcome them, hear grievances and diffuse it… but thats western thinking, this is Russia… smack first and hard, wagners been spotted taking Grad MRLS with them, Russia bringing out an S400, so chances of fireworks is pretty good…

apparently so far 7 aircraft downed by Wagner today, they aren't walking with pitchforks to a protest.

I cant wait to see Steve Rosenbergs report on this.

 

[yorksrob]

The head of Wagner has admitted as much that the invasion of Ukraine was cooked up on a false pretence of NATO/Ukraine threatening Russia. I wonder if now would be a good time for Western countries reiterate our commitment to Russia's territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders.

 

[brad465]

imagine a Scottish regiment marching on London, showing restraint, you’d go out and watch, let them past, view it with interest, meanwhile the leadership will be making statements supporting London.

Something very similar to this happened during the Jacobite rebellion, the Jacobites marched a long way towards London, but false reports of a large army standing in their way convinced them to turn back.

 

[Annetts key]

Honest, there is absolutely no panic in Moscow. Quickly Ivan, hurry up digging that trench through the main road, we got another half a dozen to do before nightfall…

I wonder which bunker Putin and his MOD staff are hiding in?

 

[Sm5]

The head of Wagner has admitted as much that the invasion of Ukraine was cooked up on a false pretence of NATO/Ukraine threatening Russia. I wonder if now would be a good time for Western countries reiterate our commitment to Russia's territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders.

Imo No.

now is the time for popcorn.

Progozhin is a ruthless butcher. Theres plenty of others around him willing to give it a go too.
The west does not want to be dealing with Prigozhin, Surovikin, Kadyrov as a replacement leader of a Russia.
Let them fight themselves on this one.

In some senses retaining Putin, maybe better than any of the above, as it keeps Russians in check, failing that let the country fall apart and break up fighting amongst themselves, but as a replacement for all Russia, I think any of the above would be bad.

(Surovkin was the last general to run a coup in Moscow back in 1991).

 

[yorksrob]

Imo No.

now is the time for popcorn.

Progozhin is a ruthless butcher. Theres plenty of others around him willing to give it a go too.
The west does not want to be dealing with Prigozhin, Surovikin, Kadyrov as a replacement leader of a Russia.
Let them fight themselves on this one.

In some senses retaining Putin, maybe better than any of the above, as it keeps Russians in check, failing that let the country fall apart and break up fighting amongst themselves, but as a replacement for all Russia, I think any of the above would be bad.

(Surovkin was the last general to run a coup in Moscow back in 1991).

It's an interesting conundrum for the West. Putin may be the less frightening option, but he is actively pushing a narrative that the West (and Britain in particular) is trying to threaten Russia through Ukraine.

Given that whoever ends up in charge will end up in charge anyway, I wonder whether hammering home the point that the West has no intention of threatening Mother Russia itself has some value.

Maybe later on will be a better time to reiterate.

 

[Giugiaro]

Portuguese press have been warning that Putin's address to the nation after Wagner's betrayal imply that the use of nuclear weapons is in the table, as Wagner has been considered a "threat to the safety of the Russian state".

The same press also looks negatively to a Wagner victory, as such would mean that Yevgeny Prigozhin would then be in possession of the Russian nuclear arsenal.

 

[yorksrob]

Portuguese press have been warning that Putin's address to the nation after Wagner's betrayal imply that the use of nuclear weapons is in the table, as Wagner has been considered a "threat to the safety of the Russian state".

The same press also looks negatively to a Wagner victory, as such would mean that Yevgeny Prigozhin would then be in possession of the Russian nuclear arsenal.

Nuclear weapons on who. Putin faces the same retaliation if he uses nuclear weapons on NATO as he always has. At the moment, it is Putin (as usual) threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

There are a few dodgy dictators in charge of nuclear weapons. Would Prigozhin be any more likely to risk annihilation with a nuclear strike on the West than Putin.

 

[Chingy]

Portuguese press have been warning that Putin's address to the nation after Wagner's betrayal imply that the use of nuclear weapons is in the table, as Wagner has been considered a "threat to the safety of the Russian state".

The same press also looks negatively to a Wagner victory, as such would mean that Yevgeny Prigozhin would then be in possession of the Russian nuclear arsenal.

But considering the threat is internal, who would Russia nuke? Their own territory. It’s not like Wagner come from a specific country and that country can be accused as the aggressor.

 

[yorksrob]

Putin is "the devil we know" but we know him less and less as he becomes more and more unpredictable.

Anyhow. I'm certainly not proposing Western support of Prigozhin or any other internal force in Russia. Merely that the West should reiterate that it has no intentions towards Russia as recognised internationally at the same time that internal forces are confirming that reality.

 

[Giugiaro]

But considering the threat is internal, who would Russia nuke? Their own territory. It’s not like Wagner come from a specific country and that country can be accused as the aggressor.

We have already established on this thread that the Russian State's nuclear strategy also includes the use of tactical weapons on targets within Russia over any party that threats the safety of the State.

Wagner happens to be that exact threat at this very moment.

 

[Darandio]

Portuguese press have been warning that Putin's address to the nation after Wagner's betrayal imply that the use of nuclear weapons is in the table, as Wagner has been considered a "threat to the safety of the Russian state".

The same press also looks negatively to a Wagner victory, as such would mean that Yevgeny Prigozhin would then be in possession of the Russian nuclear arsenal.

Pretty certain their doctrine doesn't extend to using nuclear weapons on themselves.

 

[Pete_uk]

From 'Kyiv in three days' to the battle of Moscow.

The big worry is if the coup, sorry 'special military insurrection' works what kind of Government will take over?

Interesting times

 

[Sm5]

Something that just popped up on a channel…

⚡️ Message from the press service of the President of the Republic of Belarus.

This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed his Belarusian counterpart on the situation in southern Russia with the private military company Wagner. The heads of state agreed on joint actions.
As a follow-up to the agreements, the President of Belarus, having additionally specified the situation through his own channels, and in agreement with the President of Russia, held talks with the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Negotiations continued throughout the day. As a result, they came to agreements on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions.
At the moment, an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for solving the situation is on the table, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters.
As previously reported, also during today, the President of Belarus held two meetings with the power bloc of the country on this situation.

wagner moving to Belarus ?
if they stay where they are, they will get roasted by Russia, certainly wouldnt trust any deal with Putin.

from Prigozhin..

Coup is over…

“They wanted to disband the Wagner Group. We left on June 23 for the “March of Justice”. During the day we walked less than 200 kilometers to Moscow. During this time, we have not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters.

Now the moment has come when blood can be shed, therefore, understanding all the responsibility for Russian blood to be shed on one of the sides, we turn our columns and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan, ”said Yevgeny Prigozhin

(It skips the part about the attack on the wagner convoy, 7 russian aircraft shot down, trenches cut across roads and an oil refinery blown up).


Better stay away from tall buildings, aircraft, and be careful what he eats from now on.

He might have got a deal, but its with a devil.
Wagner perception in Russia is probably now transitioning from being Russias elite, to a bunch of pirates.
Putin.. well it looks like he paid out to save himself, he’s also got to look weaker, especially if others think they can now do the same.