Scotrail HST alternatives?

[najaB]

How intensively are they used?

According to this FOI request, they currently use 15 sets on weekdays. So there is some slack in the fleet, though I believe the pre-Covid plan was for about 22 diagrams on weekdays, IIRC.

 

[jagardner1984]

According to this FOI request, they currently use 15 sets on weekdays. So there is some slack in the fleet, though I believe the pre-Covid plan was for about 22 diagrams on weekdays, IIRC.

And as per @hexagon789 updates - whilst I think it has improved of late - it was a regular occurrence for quite some time not to be able to get 15 in traffic. Sometimes by quite a margin …

Given that slack was picked up by DMUs - it doesn’t seem entirely impossible that 10-15 of something new to Scotland, and a handful of extra Sprinters, might do the job for a little while whilst more of a rolling stock plan is put in place.

 

[najaB]

And as per @hexagon789 updates - whilst I think it has improved of late - it was a regular occurrence for quite some time not to be able to get 15 in traffic. Sometimes by quite a margin

Wasn't that as much due to (lack of available, trained) drivers as it was due to mechanical issues?

 

[Bletchleyite]

And as per @hexagon789 updates - whilst I think it has improved of late - it was a regular occurrence for quite some time not to be able to get 15 in traffic. Sometimes by quite a margin …

Given that slack was picked up by DMUs - it doesn’t seem entirely impossible that 10-15 of something new to Scotland, and a handful of extra Sprinters, might do the job for a little while whilst more of a rolling stock plan is put in place.

And TPE appear to have 13 of something they don't really want...

 

[Killingworth]

And TPE appear to have 13 of something they don't really want...

Which says it all about the modern British Railway.

We've gone back to the pre 1923 grouping days with many companies operating many different types of rolling stock propelled by different forms of traction. In 1923 along came the big 4 to standardise with further national standardisation only 25 years later. But at least most of the rolling stock could be coupled together and most locomotives could be connected to it.

As every year goes by we seem to be acquiring yet more classes of stock that are not easily operable with others and are often totally incompatible.

That leaves us with multiple problems. If demand picks up there aren't enough carriager to reinforce trains because more of that class can't be built. If there are too many carriages which should be stored or scrapped? 10% of a specialised class of 60 isn't much use to another operator. So,we end up trying to prolong the life of larger classes of older trains. Like the HSTs and 15x fleets until we have to order yet more small fleets which will suffer small fleet syndrome to limit their lives.

Great British Railways needs to restore greater national standardisation. The 15x fleets have had their faults but can still be seen from the north of Scotland to Penzance. and HSTs too from Penzance to Inverness. Scotrail now seems likely to receive a collection of odd cast offs - unless they find a way of keeping HSTs running for another 5 years.

As many of the routes are massive loss makers the logical answer is to close the railway lines and buy and run new quality road coaches. It'll take a few months to get them, not 5 -10 years, and they can be replaced in 15 years. The bus/coach is more versatile and requires no expensive track to be maintained. It isn't as quick on some of the inter-city services nor as comfortable, but is it so bad?

As a life long rail enthusiast and rail user it pains me to economically appraise Scotrail's operations. CalMac's ferries are essential to connect islands and cross sea lochs but are all these railways still necessary? Scrap the HST's and scrap the most uneconomic lines recovering 156s and 158s to operate what's left!

 

[Clansman]

I think you mean to save cost rather than revenue. Whatever, any trains coming in to replace the HSTs before 2030 are going to be a big increase in cost: paying for two sets of trains for the same workings is not cheap.

If DMUs are pooled from within ScotRail to replace the HSTs then wouldn't the costs most likely be less due to the day-to-day running costs of HSTs, their reliability, and strenuous maintenance demands? Especially considering that if the HSTs were fully employed without the reliability issues, it would cost ScotRail an additional £15m.

When Levenmouth opens, will it require any DMUs displaced from Barrhead, or will those currently operating the Fife circle be enough?

Leven was always planned to initially use 170s/158s until new stock came in from 2027, which would be supported by recasting the Fife timetable - so no 156s necessary.

While unintential when the plans for Leven were initially drawn, the changes to off-peak Perth and Dundee to Edinburgh semi-fasts during covid by making them call additionally at Kinghorn, Aberdour, Burntisland, Dalgety Bay and South Gyle (which is being maintained indefinitely), supplements this pretty neatly since it frees up an additional few units that used to work the usual all-stopper between these.

As many of the routes are massive loss makers the logical answer is to close the railway lines and buy and run new quality road coaches. It'll take a few months to get them, not 5 -10 years, and they can be replaced in 15 years. The bus/coach is more versatile and requires no expensive track to be maintained. It isn't as quick on some of the inter-city services nor as comfortable, but is it so bad?

As a life long rail enthusiast and rail user it pains me to economically appraise Scotrail's operations. CalMac's ferries are essential to connect islands and cross sea lochs but are all these railways still necessary? Scrap the HST's and scrap the most uneconomic lines recovering 156s and 158s to operate what's left!

Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk High is the only service in Scotland that makes a profit. Which lines would you close and which would you leave open?

 

[takno]

As many of the routes are massive loss makers the logical answer is to close the railway lines and buy and run new quality road coaches. It'll take a few months to get them, not 5 -10 years, and they can be replaced in 15 years. The bus/coach is more versatile and requires no expensive track to be maintained. It isn't as quick on some of the inter-city services nor as comfortable, but is it so bad?

As a life long rail enthusiast and rail user it pains me to economically appraise Scotrail's operations. CalMac's ferries are essential to connect islands and cross sea lochs but are all these railways still necessary? Scrap the HST's and scrap the most uneconomic lines recovering 156s and 158s to operate what's left!

Since you declare yourself to be an enthusiast and are writing in a speculative thread on an enthusiast forum, maybe you should save yourself from the pain by forgoing whatever passes in your mind for an economic appraisal of somebody else's railway. If you really do want to pain yourself, perhaps concentrate on closing the rail network throughout the north of England instead. There is a much greater mess of incompatible units running on basketcase routes there, and the savings could easily fund some new trains for Scottish intercity routes.

 

[WAB]

Since you declare yourself to be an enthusiast and are writing in a speculative thread on an enthusiast forum, maybe you should save yourself from the pain by forgoing whatever passes in your mind for an economic appraisal of somebody else's railway. If you really do want to pain yourself, perhaps concentrate on closing the rail network throughout the north of England instead. There is a much greater mess of incompatible units running on basketcase routes there, and the savings could easily fund some new trains for Scottish intercity routes.

I look forward to hearing the SNP trying to justify returning control of ScotRail to London on the basis of more subsidies by the English taxpayer

 

[Killingworth]

Since you declare yourself to be an enthusiast and are writing in a speculative thread on an enthusiast forum, maybe you should save yourself from the pain by forgoing whatever passes in your mind for an economic appraisal of somebody else's railway. If you really do want to pain yourself, perhaps concentrate on closing the rail network throughout the north of England instead. There is a much greater mess of incompatible units running on basketcase routes there, and the savings could easily fund some new trains for Scottish intercity routes.
[/QUOTE

I'd prefer to see the HSTs retained until planned replacements are in place but that no longer seem to be an option. Muddling through for 10 more years isn't attractive. I'm impressed with the Greater Anglia fleet. Soneone has to agree to pay for a similar solution in Scotland.

If they don't there'll be many more threats to services and more major cuts may have to happen. And yes, there are a mass of incompatible units across the country - exactly my point.

 

[hexagon789]

Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk High is the only service in Scotland that makes a profit. Which lines would you close and which would you leave open?

Last I heard it was no longer making a profit.

 

[43096]

If DMUs are pooled from within ScotRail to replace the HSTs then wouldn't the costs most likely be less due to the day-to-day running costs of HSTs, their reliability, and strenuous maintenance demands? Especially considering that if the HSTs were fully employed without the reliability issues, it would cost ScotRail an additional £15m.

You'd still be paying lease costs on two lots of trains, though.

Perhaps the best way would be to strike a deal with Angel for the Class 175 fleet (which Angel owns), in return for an early exit/lower termination cost on the HST fleet (which Angel also own).

 

[Clansman]

Last I heard it was no longer making a profit.

Covid demand no doubt. Prior to which it was generating on average £2 per passenger.

If it weren't for the HSTs, Glasgow to Aberdeen would have also become economically self sustaining. Just goes to show how much the prospect of their early replacement could be a blessing in disguise for ScotRail.

 

[hexagon789]

Covid demand no doubt. Prior to which it was generating on average £2 per passenger.

If it weren't for the HSTs, Glasgow to Aberdeen would have also become economically self sustaining. Just goes to show how much their early replacement could be a blessing in disguise for ScotRail.

I knew it was making pretty reasonable money before COVID; last I heard, it was losing about 2p per passenger currently.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

How intensively are they used?

Poorly utilised I believe - 15 out of 25 sets.
Why did ScotRail make all this fuss about 4 and 5-car sets and a nicer journey experience when they're not being used enough?

 

[Chester1]

Since you declare yourself to be an enthusiast and are writing in a speculative thread on an enthusiast forum, maybe you should save yourself from the pain by forgoing whatever passes in your mind for an economic appraisal of somebody else's railway. If you really do want to pain yourself, perhaps concentrate on closing the rail network throughout the north of England instead. There is a much greater mess of incompatible units running on basketcase routes there, and the savings could easily fund some new trains for Scottish intercity routes.

@Killingworth is as entitled to give his views as much as any Scot is entitled to give their views on rail network in England!

 

[JonathanH]

I knew it was making pretty reasonable money before COVID; last I heard, it was losing about 2p per passenger currently.

If it were really losing 2p per passenger, wouldn't they just increase fares by 10p? That sounds a little insignificant.

 

[Trainbike46]

Covid demand no doubt. Prior to which it was generating on average £2 per passenger.

If it weren't for the HSTs, Glasgow to Aberdeen would have also become economically self sustaining. Just goes to show how much the prospect of their early replacement could be a blessing in disguise for ScotRail.

Early retirement (pre-2030) of the HST would only be a blessing in disguise if the Scottish government manages to get out of the lease, which is guaranteed by the Scottish government until 2030

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Aug 2023 ==

Doesn't make sense to me. Surely the only use ScotRail could have for them would be Inter7City and, with Scotland's electrification programme still moving (unlike the still-paused GWEP) surely any replacement for the Inter7City HSTs would need a pantograph or two.

Replying here as off-topic in original thread.

The suggestions for HST replacements in general are based on the fact that the unions (rightly) are rather unhappy about the safety of HSTs, as shown by the Carmont crash in particular. The HST replacement post-electrification is many years away, so suggestions have been made to replace them earlier, and the 222s are available soon, so have been floated as an option.

However, Alex Hynes stated on the railnatter podcast that the HSTs are currently being modified to improve their safety, and that they are planning their replacement for 2030/2035ish, so it sounds like the HSTs aren't, in fact, being replaced (source from 1:18:53:https://www.youtube.com/live/00sj14IF144?feature=share&t=4733 )

 

[John Bishop]

Early retirement (pre-2030) of the HST would only be a blessing in disguise if the Scottish government manages to get out of the lease, which is guaranteed by the Scottish government until 2030

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Aug 2023 ==


Replying here as off-topic in original thread.

The suggestions for HST replacements in general are based on the fact that the unions (rightly) are rather unhappy about the safety of HSTs, as shown by the Carmont crash in particular. The HST replacement post-electrification is many years away, so suggestions have been made to replace them earlier, and the 222s are available soon, so have been floated as an option.

However, Alex Hynes stated on the railnatter podcast that the HSTs are currently being modified to improve their safety, and that they are planning their replacement for 2030/2035ish, so it sounds like the HSTs aren't, in fact, being replaced (source from 1:18:53:https://www.youtube.com/live/00sj14IF144?feature=share&t=4733 )

HSTs in active service until 2030/35 is just pure fantasy, not a chance that will happen.

 

[Trainbike46]

HSTs in active service until 2030/35 is just pure fantasy, not a chance that will happen.

I'm just relaying what the managing director of Scotland's railway said in a public forum, the source is linked, and it certainly doesn't sound like they are intending to get 222s, or any other rolling stock anytime soon...

 

[chuff chuff]

Discussions are ongoing.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Yes HST still working in 2035 is definitely the sort of thing that only a very dreamy rose tinted spectacle wearing enthusiast might write and even then only one that's had a fairly good bump on the head, by 2035 even the 170 will be classed as elderly and given that they can barely get up some of the Highland gradients now are likely to not be able to do it at all should any of them still be coughing their way around the network.

Apologies if it's been done before and I'd be glad to be referred to a post explaining it but what are these modifications to make them safer?

 

[John Bishop]

Yes HST still working in 2035 is definitely the sort of thing that only a very dreamy rose tinted spectacle wearing enthusiast might write and even then only one that's had a fairly good bump on the head, by 2035 even the 170 will be classed as elderly and given that they can barely get up some of the Highland gradients now are likely to not be able to do it at all should any of them still be coughing their way around the network.

Apologies if it's been done before and I'd be glad to be referred to a post explaining it but what are these modifications to make them safer?

At the moment, it’s only the lifeguards that have been modified, albeit the change is not that noticeable. Nothing else has been modified with the fleet.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Move to another thread if necessary. My suggestions to smooth things over are (should HST's get withdrawn early)...

Extend the 09:27 & 11:27 Plymouth to Edinburgh on Mondays - Thursdays to Aberdeen (11:27 to Dundee like it use to before covid) to provide some capacity. A 5-car 262 (236 Standard & 26 First Class) seat Voyager isn't bad.

Replace the 05:30 Edinburgh to Aberdeen ScotRail HST by starting the present 06:42 Dundee to Aberdeen from Edinburgh, probably at 05:20-05:25.

Start the 08:06 Edinburgh to Plymouth service from Dundee at like 06:32. That's a double Voyager!

Extend the 06:03 XC Birmingham to Edinburgh up to Aberdeen - this was originally proposes for December 2017. That could temporarily replace the ScotRail 11:30 Edinburgh to Aberdeen HST for now. Start the 18:07 Edinburgh to Birmingham from Aberdeen at 15:20.

Bring out a few stored EMR 156's (if there's any) and put them on some Class 158 / 170 routes and put the 158's and 170's on the HST routes or bring in say 12 x 2-car ex-TfW 158's in.

That's say 15 diagrams with some spare.

 

[najaB]

Yes HST still working in 2035 is definitely the sort of thing that only a very dreamy rose tinted spectacle wearing enthusiast might write and even then only one that's had a fairly good bump on the head, by 2035 even the 170 will be classed as elderly and given that they can barely get up some of the Highland gradients now are likely to not be able to do it at all should any of them still be coughing their way around the network.

I agree that HSTs in 2035 would be unlikely, but it's worth remembering that the bits that make the train move are of considerably more recent vintage than the bodyshells. The oldest would be 30 years old at that point, which isn't out of family for the age of British trains at retirement.

 

[Wynd]

Poorly utilised I believe - 15 out of 25 sets.
Why did ScotRail make all this fuss about 4 and 5-car sets and a nicer journey experience when they're not being used enough?

A question that many a Scottish passenger has.

The 170's are horrific on a 2-3 hour jorney, the HST is a night and day expereince for passengers, and yet 5th coaches are lying idle.

Whatever the replacement is, it needs to be comperable in passenger expereince.

Id hate to know how much revenue Scotrail is losing everyday out of Aberdeen alone with folk waiting for the LNER services...

 

[Trainbike46]

A question that many a Scottish passenger has.

The 170's are horrific on a 2-3 hour jorney, the HST is a night and day expereince for passengers, and yet 5th coaches are lying idle.

Whatever the replacement is, it needs to be comperable in passenger expereince.

Id hate to know how much revenue Scotrail is losing everyday out of Aberdeen alone with folk waiting for the LNER services...

From the perspective of the railway as a whole, the problem isn't people waiting for the LNER services, the problem is people opting not to travel by rail at all, but instead driving/flying/coaching it

 

[Snow1964]

I agree that HSTs in 2035 would be unlikely, but it's worth remembering that the bits that make the train move are of considerably more recent vintage than the bodyshells. The oldest would be 30 years old at that point, which isn't out of family for the age of British trains at retirement.

That's where basic accounts and costs will dominate, if it has been re-engined and then scrap them early, where the cost of work was spread over expected lifespan (presumably to 2030) then will take a big financial hit as a write off of the book value.

So faced with choice of cost of few extra modifications or bigger cost of writing off the trains plus then spending out on an alternative becomes a no brainer.

As for the 2030-2035 period, a phase out depending on condition is most likely. A new replacement fleet will cost hundreds of millions, so if a few million of repairs is viable for couple of extra years, it would be stupid not to do so.

The 170's are horrific on a 2-3 hour jorney, the HST is a night and day expereince for passengers, and yet 5th coaches are lying idle.

This is similar problem to GWR has, except they have many 3+ hour routes operated by 31-35 year old DMUs, meanwhile they have many under 2 hour journeys operated by IETs. The passenger experience is very inconsistent.

But of course doesn't have to be a HST, something modern with ambience inside like being in a 444, suitable for 3+ hour journeys, the regional battery bi-mode is required in Scotland as much as other parts of the country. And in a rational world a few operators would pool their needs into one standard design and a big framework agreement to get good price. No point waiting for GBR to do it.

 

[cactustwirly]

Move to another thread if necessary. My suggestions to smooth things over are (should HST's get withdrawn early)...

Extend the 09:27 & 11:27 Plymouth to Edinburgh on Mondays - Thursdays to Aberdeen (11:27 to Dundee like it use to before covid) to provide some capacity. A 5-car 262 (236 Standard & 26 First Class) seat Voyager isn't bad.

Replace the 05:30 Edinburgh to Aberdeen ScotRail HST by starting the present 06:42 Dundee to Aberdeen from Edinburgh, probably at 05:20-05:25.

Start the 08:06 Edinburgh to Plymouth service from Dundee at like 06:32. That's a double Voyager!

Extend the 06:03 XC Birmingham to Edinburgh up to Aberdeen - this was originally proposes for December 2017. That could temporarily replace the ScotRail 11:30 Edinburgh to Aberdeen HST for now. Start the 18:07 Edinburgh to Birmingham from Aberdeen at 15:20.

Bring out a few stored EMR 156's (if there's any) and put them on some Class 158 / 170 routes and put the 158's and 170's on the HST routes or bring in say 12 x 2-car ex-TfW 158's in.

That's say 15 diagrams with some spare.

Are there enough traincrew and available stock to operate those extended services?

The EMR 156s are apparently in a state and need significant investment to bring them up to a workable standard.

It's a lot easier for Scotrail just to lease 222s

 

[Clansman]

It's a lot easier for Scotrail just to lease 222s

And it's even more easier for ScotRail to just use 156s displaced from their own fleet than to cascade up some 222s or theoretically subsidising XC to fill morning/evening capacity gaps (which would never happen anyway).

 

[cactustwirly]

And it's even more easier for ScotRail to just use 156s displaced from their own fleet than to cascade up some 222s or theoretically subsidising XC to fill morning/evening capacity gaps (which would never happen anyway).

The 156s are life expired and where are they coming from?