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Virgin Group explores the return of Virgin Trains as an Open Access operator

Philip

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The eastbound path through the Castlefield corridor appears to conflict with the path of the Northern CLC stopper from Castlefield Jn into Oxford Road, with risk of delay to the following EMR Liverpool to Norwich.

The westbound path through the corridor is sandwiched between the Northern Chat Moss stopper and the Northern Airport to Blackpool, both of which call at both Oxford Road and Deansgate. At Castlefield Jn it appears to conflict with the path of the TPE Liverpool to Cleethorpes, which crosses the junction between the two Northern services.

These paths, neither of which is an unused Northern or TPE path, would seem to undermine the work of the Manchester Task Force by increasing the quanta of services through Castlefield, thereby putting punctuality performance at risk.

One of the westbound Northern services you mention could be diverted to Victoria to allow more breathing space through Castlefield. The eastbound CLC stopper would inevitably be re-timed slightly to follow the Virgin service into Oxford Road.
 
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ayubdaud

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Would there be gaps across Slade Lane for the Manchester path to get through to Stockport? I would have thought that would be massively tight. Second thing that sticks out to me is that I thought xx.24 departing Manchester Victoria was the TPE departure slot to Liverpool, which is only slightly earlier at the moment as they call at both Newton-le-Willows and Lea Green, which presumably one would be dropped when they go back to 2tph.

Only a couple times a day, though, if they did need to be flexed permamently to give the OA space.
 

Greybeard33

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Would there be gaps across Slade Lane for the Manchester path to get through to Stockport? I would have thought that would be massively tight. Second thing that sticks out to me is that I thought xx.24 departing Manchester Victoria was the TPE departure slot to Liverpool, which is only slightly earlier at the moment as they call at both Newton-le-Willows and Lea Green, which presumably one would be dropped when they go back to 2tph.

Only a couple times a day, though, if they did need to be flexed permamently to give the OA space.
The xx39 departure from Piccadilly P13 appears to conflict at Slade Lane with the xx46 arrival from Buxton, which is routed through the junction from the Down Slow to the Down Fast at xx42 and is closely followed by the xx50 arrival from Stoke (xx45 Slade Lane). On the other hand, crossing from P13 to the Up Fast in Piccadilly throat would conflict with the xx40 arrival from Crewe via Stockport, which is routed from the Down Fast into P8 and is followed by the xx44 Avanti from Euston into p6.

Virgin's application states it is based on the June 2023 timetable, in which TPE had 2tph between Victoria and Liverpool. That timetable did indeed have TPE Newcastle to Liverpool departures from P3 at 0824 and 1624, the exact times at which Virgin proposes to use the platform.

The statement in the Virgin application that...
The timetables to support the four service groups above have/are being developed and validated based on the June 2023 timetable using industry recognised timetable development and validation tool ATTUne to demonstrate their credibility.
...seems to be "economical with the truth".
 

Howardh

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I'm biased of course, living near Bolton, but I would imagine there would be more pax/income from Chorley/Horwich/Bolton > London than from Rochdale, although a change at Victoria could be argued to be easier than Piccadilly with it's narrow platforms, overcrowded escalator and no lift down to platform 6 (?) where Avanti's trains sometimes depart from.
 

pokemonsuper9

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I'm biased of course, living near Bolton, but I would imagine there would be more pax/income from Chorley/Horwich/Bolton > London than from Rochdale, although a change at Victoria could be argued to be easier than Piccadilly with it's narrow platforms, overcrowded escalator and no lift down to platform 6 (?) where Avanti's trains sometimes depart from.
Either way they only plan to run 2 trains per day to/from Rochdale but 5 to/from Preston/Bolton.

Maybe combining in the Glasgow services (which have Preston and Golborne stops) Bolton might receive a pretty good service if allowing for a connection (or 2).
 

havaska

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Just a thought; where are the class 222 going when they leave EMR? Couldn’t Virgin take use of those trains from 2025?
 

Energy

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Just a thought; where are the class 222 going when they leave EMR? Couldn’t Virgin take use of those trains from 2025?
Yes, but they can't tilt so would be subject to the same timings as the 805/807s.
 

Mgameing123

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Surely there's no paths through Manchester that could be used by an open access operator? The dreaded Castlefield corridor is so busy, if there's any regular space in it's schedule, I would be shocked.

Come to think of it, given this service would use Ordsall Ln Jnc (either to head towards Liverpool or Preston, depending on how the service(s) are arranged), that's the second open access request to the ORR for that chunk of track in such a short amount of time :lol:
You probably have to go the Victoria way.
 

stan claire

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I wonder how these Virgin services will get on in terms of passenger loadings…
If they run a service around 8am from Preston then they’ll have all the Manchester commuters cramming into their trains. If they ran a service around this time would they use other measures to avoid crowded services?
Also, if they are taking feedback on the proposal, it’d be nice for a call at Buckshaw on these services, as I know there’d be quite a few people as well as myself who would enjoy a direct London service. Horwich Parkway also doesn’t make much sense to me, as Blackrod is closer to the town centre and I doubt many would want to trek all the way to Middlebrook to get the train (or get fined for parking their car overnight). I’d also quite like a 10 car commute over a 3 that skips stations because of overcrowding :lol:
 

Meerkat

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I wonder how these Virgin services will get on in terms of passenger loadings…
If they run a service around 8am from Preston then they’ll have all the Manchester commuters cramming into their trains. If they ran a service around this time would they use other measures to avoid crowded services?
Also, if they are taking feedback on the proposal, it’d be nice for a call at Buckshaw on these services, as I know there’d be quite a few people as well as myself who would enjoy a direct London service. Horwich Parkway also doesn’t make much sense to me, as Blackrod is closer to the town centre and I doubt many would want to trek all the way to Middlebrook to get the train (or get fined for parking their car overnight). I’d also quite like a 10 car commute over a 3 that skips stations because of overcrowding :lol:
Won’t it be reservation only so they can ensure long distance seats don’t get taken by short distance commuters?
 

Doomotron

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In the Telegraph today:
Ministers are seeking to thwart Sir Richard Branson’s attempt to launch private train services that would compete with Labour’s state-run railway.

In a letter published on Friday, the Department for Transport said it was opposed to Virgin Trains running services between London and Glasgow because it would siphon ticket revenues away from government-run trains.

It has also opposed seven other “open access” proposals put forward by private providers, including five put forward by London-listed FirstGroup, one by Arriva and another by Alliance Rail Limited.

“We have significant concerns over abstraction of revenue from contracted operators and the unreasonable burden that this in turn places upon taxpayers,” the letter to the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) stated.

“These concerns are particularly acute with regards to the applications from Virgin and FirstGroup, with Alliance Rail’s proposed Edinburgh-Cardiff services also posing significant risk.

“We expect that ORR will fully investigate and take into account the material impact to the Secretary of State’s funds and to taxpayers of each open access application and will pay close regard to this in its decision making.”

The objections, first reported by the Financial Times, come as Labour is seeking to bring the railways back into public ownership under the auspices of a new body, Great British Railways. Rather than revoking existing private operating contracts, ministers will allow deals to expire without renewal.

However, companies including Sir Richard’s Virgin Trains are attempting to maintain a presence through so-called open access rules. These allow private operators to offer services alongside the main operator of a rail line, so long as the route is under-served and there is sufficient capacity for more trains.

Examples of such services today include Lumo, which operates on the East Coast Mainline between London and Edinburgh, as well as the Heathrow Express on the Great Western Mainline and Hull Trains, in Yorkshire.

However, the Department for Transport warned that the various services would damage the performance of existing services and drain away fare revenue, rather than adding extra demand.

Virgin’s proposals to run trains between London, Preston, Liverpool Lime Street, Birmingham New Street and Glasgow Central would lead to £110.5m of revenues being “abstracted” from government services while generating £19.7m of new revenues, it claimed.

Virgin Trains have proposed to run private services between London, Preston, Liverpool Lime Street and other locations
This represented “a very high level of absolute abstraction and the Department is of the belief that this represents an unacceptable level of impact to taxpayers”, the Government warned the Office of Rail and Road.

“Further, given the greatly constrained overall position of rail finances, the loss of revenue on such a significant scale would materially impact the funds available to the Secretary of State to support and improve the railway,” the letter added.

Phil Whittingham, head of Virgin’s train business, insisted the company still planned to push ahead with its bid, telling the Financial Times the private service would probably cause ministers “a bit of a headache” but that competition would ultimately benefit both sides.

FirstGroup insisted its proposals “enjoy widespread stakeholder support” and would “coexist with other operators and create demand on these routes”.

On Friday, a government spokesman said: “Our number one priority for the railways is to provide passengers with the reliable, accessible and better quality services they deserve.

“We’re supportive of open access services which can encourage growth, improve connectivity and provide more choice for passengers but these benefits must outweigh the costs to the taxpayer and impacts to network performance.”

A final decision will be made by the regulator, the spokesman added.
I don't think this has any relevance to the final decision made by the ORR but it's the first update of any sort on Virgin's WCML application in a while.

It also noted an Edinburgh to Cardiff open access application that I hadn't heard of.
 

RealTrains07

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In the Telegraph today:

I don't think this has any relevance to the final decision made by the ORR but it's the first update of any sort on Virgin's WCML application in a while.

It also noted an Edinburgh to Cardiff open access application that I hadn't heard of.
Its an interesting development especially as it shows the potential issues nationalisation on this scale could have on the open access market.
 

The Ham

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Rail growth has been fairly high (OK from a low base) recently, even on the last rolling 12 month growth it was 10.5% the 10 years prior to COVID it averaged about 5% a year.

As such, it's not a surprise for business to think, were not far away from pre COVID passengers numbers (it could be as short as 3 years, assuming 8% a year growth) and yet there's still several trains a day on key routes which aren't being run.

As the government are being slow at delivering those services we'll put in a bid to do so. We may not make a profit in the first few years, but we weren't going to anyway, however we will over the next (say) 10 years. Especially as it'll take the regulator time to approve the routes.

It's the difference between proactive and reactive, the government tends to be the latter when it comes to rail.

They could have announced that they were going to pause the acceptance of all applications whilst they reviewed the likely timeline to restore the missing rail services from the timetables (i.e. back to pre COVID).

That could have given them the understanding that (say) a path from Euston was due to be used by Avanti in May 2027 and so couldn't be awarded to an OAO for use from April 2026. However Avanti wasn't sure to use it until after 2032, then it's reasonable to award it to an OAO.
 

irish_rail

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Rail growth has been fairly high (OK from a low base) recently, even on the last rolling 12 month growth it was 10.5% the 10 years prior to COVID it averaged about 5% a year.

As such, it's not a surprise for business to think, were not far away from pre COVID passengers numbers (it could be as short as 3 years, assuming 8% a year growth) and yet there's still several trains a day on key routes which aren't being run.

As the government are being slow at delivering those services we'll put in a bid to do so. We may not make a profit in the first few years, but we weren't going to anyway, however we will over the next (say) 10 years. Especially as it'll take the regulator time to approve the routes.

It's the difference between proactive and reactive, the government tends to be the latter when it comes to rail.

They could have announced that they were going to pause the acceptance of all applications whilst they reviewed the likely timeline to restore the missing rail services from the timetables (i.e. back to pre COVID).

That could have given them the understanding that (say) a path from Euston was due to be used by Avanti in May 2027 and so couldn't be awarded to an OAO for use from April 2026. However Avanti wasn't sure to use it until after 2032, then it's reasonable to award it to an OAO.
Agreed. It seems government are quite happy to sit back and rely on HS2 to provide the necessary growth that is likely to occur and is occurring. Meanwhile in the real world, away from the south WCML trains are packed and are getting busier, no wonder there are organisations looking to fill in the gaps. Government need to re focus on proper growth, in my view lengthening what train services we already have, ie XC Voyagers , and GWR 5 car IETs!
 

The Ham

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Agreed. It seems government are quite happy to sit back and rely on HS2 to provide the necessary growth that is likely to occur and is occurring. Meanwhile in the real world, away from the south WCML trains are packed and are getting busier, no wonder there are organisations looking to fill in the gaps. Government need to re focus on proper growth, in my view lengthening what train services we already have, ie XC Voyagers , and GWR 5 car IETs!

HS2 can not deliver growth on its own, it would need the government to have a plan to use the capacity on the existing network which would become available from it.

The plan could be as simple as to allow that capacity to be used by OAO's (at least that would mean that they didn't have to do that planning and there could be some expectations over new services which HS2 could facilitate).
 

irish_rail

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HS2 can not deliver growth on its own, it would need the government to have a plan to use the capacity on the existing network which would become available from it.

The plan could be as simple as to allow that capacity to be used by OAO's (at least that would mean that they didn't have to do that planning and there could be some expectations over new services which HS2 could facilitate).
I guess the question is what capacity does HS2 actually free up away from the south WCML? I know it's way too late to cancel now, but just imagine if we invested all the money spent (or which will be spent) on HS2 into other worthwhile capacity boosting projects throughout the UK. Would be a game changer and would leave the OAOs without a hope. Instead there seems to be an "eggs all in one basket" (HS2) approach from government.
 

The Planner

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I guess the question is what capacity does HS2 actually free up away from the south WCML? I know it's way too late to cancel now, but just imagine if we invested all the money spent (or which will be spent) on HS2 into other worthwhile capacity boosting projects throughout the UK. Would be a game changer and would leave the OAOs without a hope. Instead there seems to be an "eggs all in one basket" (HS2) approach from government.
You would still need to do something for the WCML regardless.
 
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In the Telegraph today:
I don't think this has any relevance to the final decision made by the ORR but it's the first update of any sort on Virgin's WCML application in a while.
It also noted an Edinburgh to Cardiff open access application that I hadn't heard of.
This is the the section of the letter dated 4 February 2025 from the Department for Transport to the Office of Rail and Road on Virgin's WCML application. The issue raised in the DfT's letter about the application seeking in large part to reallocate access rights from Avanti West Coast (AWC) as opposed to using spare capacity on the network has also been noted earlier in this discussion.
Virgin Trains, Section 17
The Department has significant concerns regarding both taxpayer and operational impacts of this application, which seeks a high number of paths to operate WCML services between London and Preston/Rochdale, Liverpool Lime Street, Birmingham New Street, and Glasgow Central. We do not believe that the quantum of paths sought is feasible or realistic and note that the WCML already operates at close to capacity, particularly into/out of London Euston.
Analysis undertaken by the Department suggests an NPA ratio of 0.21, with predicted abstraction of £110.5m per annum against just £19.7m of new revenue generated. This is significantly below the 0.3 NPA threshold set out in the ORR’s guidance and represents a very high level of absolute abstraction, and the Department is of the belief that this represents an unacceptable level of impact to taxpayers. Further, given the greatly constrained overall position of rail finances, the loss of revenue on such a significant scale would materially impact the funds available to the Secretary of State to support and improve the railway.
This application is also at odds with work already underway as part of the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) and Manchester-focused projects included as part of the Rail Network Enhancement Pipeline (RNEP). The business cases for these projects, which have been agreed to and announced by Ministers, are predicated on the efficient delivery of financial and passenger benefits by DfT-procured services.
In December 2022 as part of the work of Manchester Task Force, the rail industry implemented a timetable simplification to improve reliability which had been a very significant issue in 2018 (the timetable collapse) and 2019. The simplified timetable has delivered a 30% uplift in performance ahead of further infrastructure delivery at the end of the 2020s (the infrastructure is being designed or delivered). Ordsall and Manchester Victoria are bottlenecks where investment is delivered (Stalybridge electrification) or in delivery (works either side of Victoria). Even with planned improvements to infrastructure, capacity utilisation will be at its maximum allowance. TRU will also require significant capacity via Rochdale for diversions during construction, likely continuing until at least 2034.
We also note that this application seeks in large part to reallocate access rights from Avanti West Coast (AWC) as opposed to using spare capacity on the network. While these rights have not been fully used by AWC since the COVID-19 pandemic, AWC’s Train Service Requirement remains as specified prior to the pandemic. The operator started implementing the step up of Liverpool services to 2tph in June 2024 and December 2024, with a further service planned for May 2025. Therefore, we do not believe that the rights sought will be available for Virgin to use during the period specified.
The scale of Virgin’s proposals also raises questions regarding viability within the timeframes specified, particularly regarding the recruitment and training of sufficient drivers. Given route knowledge requirements, AWC drivers would be attractive targets for the Virgin business, and we have concern that any significant loss of AWC drivers would cause notable damage to AWC’s ability to deliver its own contracted train services. This risk would also apply to other contracted operators with driver depots in the Midlands and North-west.
Virgin’s proposals would also impact future HS2 services, using vital capacity that will be required in order to fully operate planned HS2 services in line with both Government and public expectations. Virgin’s proposed services would effectively consume WCML paths required by HS2 services of significant economic value, while simultaneously reducing broader capacity and performance benefits that should be realised where existing WCML services may be transferred to new HS2 infrastructure. This risks both impact to taxpayers where benefits from public investment are not realised as well as impact to passengers where performance is not improved.
More broadly we have concerns regarding impacts to capacity and performance particularly on the southern section of the WCML and at Euston, where there is already significant constraint and maintaining performance is a considerable challenge. These concerns would apply to any volume of new services in this area of the network, but the quantum of paths sought by Virgin is particularly high and would undoubtedly cause unacceptable levels of detrimental performance impacts if indeed such high volume of services could physically be accommodated.
Based upon the reasons set out above, the Department does not support this application and has significant concerns over its potential impacts to both taxpayers and to the efficient operation of the network.
This letter is listed as 'DfT response' in the list of documents relating to the Virgin Management Limited Section 17 application on the following page of the ORR website.
 
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Trainman40083

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In the Telegraph today:

I don't think this has any relevance to the final decision made by the ORR but it's the first update of any sort on Virgin's WCML application in a while.

It also noted an Edinburgh to Cardiff open access application that I hadn't heard of.
My understanding was that Edinburgh to Cardiff was to be someone like Grand Union.
 
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In the Telegraph today:
I don't think this has any relevance to the final decision made by the ORR but it's the first update of any sort on Virgin's WCML application in a while.
It also noted an Edinburgh to Cardiff open access application that I hadn't heard of.
My understanding was that Edinburgh to Cardiff was to be someone like Grand Union.
It refers to the Alliance Rail Limited Section 17 application for five services a day each way between Edinburgh and Cardiff on the following page of the ORR website.
 
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Simon11

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Have they even got any trains to use on it?
They have the agreements drafted, however they are waiting for the rolling stock to be released by the existing operator who in turn are waiting for their new rolling stock.

I can't see anything happening this year, once you consider they need to start driving training ect.
 
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Trainman40083

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They have the agreements drafted, however they are waiting for the rolling stock to be released by the existing operator who in turn are waiting for their new rolling stock.

I can't see anything happening this year, once you consider they need to start driving training ect.
I thought they were having the EMR 222s, but then wondered if ScotRail would have them.all as HST replacement.
 

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