Russia invades Ukraine

[1D54]

Wow, i didn't realise this had happened but i suppose it's obvious really. Are Aeroflot flying to Belgrade and Istanbul (state carriers are certainly flying to Moscow from these two) because if they are using stolen aircraft then they could be seized. Both want entry to the EU.

 

[DanNCL]

Wow, i didn't realise this had happened but i suppose it's obvious really. Are Aeroflot flying to Belgrade and Istanbul (state carriers are certainly flying to Moscow from these two) because if they are using stolen aircraft then they could be seized. Both want entry to the EU.

Russian carriers still fly to Turkey. Aeroflot, S7 Airlines and possibly a few other Russian carriers have made settlements with the Western lessors for some of the stolen aircraft which legitimately transfer ownership either to the Russian carrier itself or to a Russian lessor. Only those aircraft where a settlement has been made or aircraft that weren’t leased from Western lessors to begin with are used on flights to Turkey.

Russian carriers cannot reach Belgrade as it’s impossible to get there without overflying airspace that they’re banned from, only Air Serbia fly to Russia from Serbia.

 

[EverythingGoes]

I have been wondering for a while whether Trump has made too many business deals with Russian crooks over the years…and we know who the biggest Russian crook of all is. He is now threatening to start calling in the loans or else: I suspect that Trump would rather sell out another country, or even his own, rather than be publicly ruined or humiliated.

I do additionally wonder if part of Trump’s unpredictability on Ukraine is because he is being fed and led by Vance, who appears to be even more hardline. He can manage a coherent line, even if nasty, which is something that Trump seems to be having problems with nowadays. I find the prospect of President Vance to be, in many ways, even more worrying.

Trump may well have been cultivated as an asset for the KGB over 40 years ago. This information has resurfaced again recently, but the it was first published before the war in Ukraine and before Trumps second presidency.


Article from January 2021.

‘The perfect target’: Russia cultivated Trump as asset for 40 years – ex-KGB spy

The KGB ‘played the game as if they were immensely impressed by his personality’, Yuri Shvets, a key source for a new book, tells the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

 

[Gloster]

Trump may well have been cultivated as an asset for the KGB over 40 years ago. This information has resurfaced again recently, but the it was first published before the war in Ukraine and before Trumps second presidency.


Article from January 2021.

‘The perfect target’: Russia cultivated Trump as asset for 40 years – ex-KGB spy

The KGB ‘played the game as if they were immensely impressed by his personality’, Yuri Shvets, a key source for a new book, tells the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

My feeling with that is that they weren’t really expecting him to spy for them or get to a position of influence, but it was worth investing time and effort into getting potential points of leverage which could be used in various ways. They must have done this to quite a number of targets, but this one has really paid off.

 

[EverythingGoes]

My feeling with that is that they weren’t really expecting him to spy for them or get to a position of influence, but it was worth investing time and effort into getting potential points of leverage which could be used in various ways. They must have done this to quite a number of targets, but this one has really paid off.

Yes they definitely hit the jackpot with this one. Putin was of course in the KGB so I'm sure he would have been well aware of a big name like Trump being a target.

 

[Cloud Strife]

According to reports and video on Twitter / X, Ukraine have just hit the Ufa oil refinery, over 1300km from the front line. It's burning, it's potentially yet another wrecked refinery in Russia, and it's one of the biggest that they have.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1896330776045924488

Ukrainian attack drones successfully conducted one of the deepest strikes of the war tonight, hitting Russia’s Ufa Oil Refinery, over 1300 km behind the frontline. The Russian refinery is burning.

There aren't any reliable news reports yet with information, but Anton Gerashchenko, one of the most reliable sources of information about this sort of thing, has also reported it:

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1896329609001812253

Russian Telegram channels report an attack on Ufimskiy oil refinery in Ufa, Bashkortostan region of Russia. The refinery is one of the largest in Russia and produces fuel for the Russian army.

Just *how* does a drone fly so far through Russian territory without being shot down? Are the Russian air defences really so poor, or did they just end up moving everything into Crimea at the expense of everywhere else?

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Ukraine just hit the Ufa oil refinery, over 1300km from the front line. It's burning, it's potentially yet another wrecked refinery in Russia, and it's one of the biggest that they have.

Just *how* does a drone fly so far through Russian territory without being shot down? Are the Russian air defences really so poor, or did they just end up moving everything into Crimea at the expense of everywhere else?

Given how much Ukraine has developed its drone expertise perhaps they have worked out how to fly them cruise missile style, ie low enough to evade radar and through empty territory to avoid visual sighting.

 

[edwin_m]

Keir Starmer announces £1.6bn missile deal for Ukraine

The PM announced "a number" of allies had signed up to his plan following the Lancaster House summit.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK to finance £1.6bn worth of missiles for Ukraine. This sounds like a treble win - support for Ukraine, building up the defence base without (I assume) US reliance and stimulating the UK economy.

The deal will also create 200 jobs in Northern Ireland and directly support a further 700 jobs in the UK, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) said, through the manufacture of more than 5,000 lightweight-multirole missiles (LMM), which will treble production at Thales factory in Belfast.

Perun on YouTube has posted an analysis of European defence capability without the US. The conclusion is that broadly the numbers are there but the US not being on side would leave significant gaps in the capability, which Europe has the economic power to plug but it would take time and willingness. He also makes the point that it's much easier to achieve with Ukraine part of the force, adding a large and combat-experienced army ideally located to repel aggression. The opposite applies if Ukraine is neutralised or worse still on the other side.

 

[najaB]

Perun on YouTube has posted an analysis of European defence capability without the US. The conclusion is that broadly the strength would be there but the US not being on side would leave significant gaps in the capability, which Europe has the economic power to plug but it would take time and willingness.

I presume they were talking of conventional forces only? While both the UK and France have our own warheads, we don't have nearly as many as the USA and, in the case of the UK, we don't have an independent delivery system.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Given how much Ukraine has developed its drone expertise perhaps they have worked out how to fly them cruise missile style, ie low enough to evade radar and through empty territory to avoid visual sighting.

Yes, I suppose one thing that I didn't take into account is just how empty large parts of Russia are. But even so, it surely had to have flown for quite a long time in Russian airspace without being shot down.

The other possibility is that they've sent it the long way round: Odesa, over the Black Sea, then over the high mountains between Georgia and Russia, then potentially close to the Kazakh border where there really is nothing.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Mar 2025 ==

I presume they were talking of conventional forces only? While both the UK and France have our own warheads, we don't have nearly as many as the USA and, in the case of the UK, we don't have an independent delivery system.

I think this is exactly why it makes sense for Germany, perhaps in a joint project with Poland, to develop their own nuclear defence system. The sheer amount of hatred from the MAGA side of things towards Europe means we really need a second independent delivery system, because we need to prepare for the worst case scenario. There are a lot of voices calling for America to leave NATO, so it really wouldn't hurt to have more nuclear defence options on the table.

I'd personally be in favour of a pan-European nuclear weapons project with several of the large countries being able to launch them at will: UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland would all be sensible partners.

 

[Annetts key]

Just *how* does a drone fly so far through Russian territory without being shot down? Are the Russian air defences really so poor, or did they just end up moving everything into Crimea at the expense of everywhere else?

1) Ukraine has been eliminating as many as possible over the last couple of years.
2) Russia is a really big country and can't cover even the Eastern side let alone the populated areas.
3) Aren’t most of them located around Putin's residences?

UK to finance £1.6bn worth of missiles for Ukraine. This sounds like a treble win - support for Ukraine, building up the defence base without (I assume) US reliance and stimulating the UK economy.

Thales being a French company that has bought parts of the former U.K. defence industry in the past. But yes, a big win for Ukraine and Ireland.

 

[edwin_m]

I presume they were talking of conventional forces only? While both the UK and France have our own warheads, we don't have nearly as many as the USA and, in the case of the UK, we don't have an independent delivery system.

There's quite a bit of discussion on use of the UK and French nukes as a European deterrent. This includes the possibility of the French outbasing some of their more tactical weapons and the aircraft that carry them in Germany to counter use of same by Russia.

 

[Ghostbus]

Mainstream German politicians wouldn't even commit to nuclear power to secure their country in a changing world, so on what planet are they investing billions into a nuclear weapons program?

Also, new rule. If a far right party has even a single seat in your national parliament, let alone being the official opposition, you're not allowed nuclear weapons, period.

Sorry Germany, but, well.....

 

[Annetts key]

...

It is one of the political parties in the outgoing German government that was against nuclear power stations. When they made that decision, we lived in a different time. Do I agree with their decision, no. But it was their choice, their right to decide.

The fact is that nuclear power stations are not as “low carbon” as the industry and its political supporters like to trumpet. And nuclear power stations are not very good at ramping up output quickly so are not a good match for use alongside wind turbines.

Nuclear weapons are rather different to nuclear power stations. And just for the record, our (the worlds) current nuclear power stations and nuclear weapons are based on nuclear fission. There are other nuclear technologies.

Rather ironically, the argument could be made that nuclear weapons are safer (until deliberately fired) than nuclear power stations.

The new German government will not include any members of the far right party if the other political parties honour their word.

If we applied your principals to the U.K. and France, neither country should be allowed to retain nuclear weapons. In both countries there are members of far right political parties that have seats in the respective national parliaments.

And in the U.S.A. we have a far right political party in government!

 

[edwin_m]

And just for the record, our (the worlds) current nuclear power stations and nuclear weapons are based on nuclear fission.

A hydrogen bomb uses nuclear fusion.

If a far right party has even a single seat in your national parliament ... you're not allowed nuclear weapons, period.

We'd better now scrap ours then, now we have five Reform MPs.

 

[najaB]

A hydrogen bomb uses nuclear fusion.

Though, if one is getting pedantic, the fusion reaction is triggered by a fission primary.

 

[Giugiaro]

And if you want to be even more pedantic, the fusion reaction is triggered by the compression of fusionable material by the expansion of a fission reaction, which itself is triggered by the compression of fissile material by the expansion of a conventional bomb exploding.

So basically it's a boom-boom-boom bomb.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Also, new rule. If a far right party has even a single seat in your national parliament, let alone being the official opposition, you're not allowed nuclear weapons, period.

Just a point, but there is no such thing as an official opposition in Germany (or indeed much of Europe). It's something that only really exists in the Westminster-style systems.

Either way, remember that you can have nasty types on the left too. Fico's Smer is a textbook example of this, but the SPS of Milosevic was also a very good example. I wouldn't give either of them nuclear weapons!

 

[EverythingGoes]

Trump has suspended military aid to Ukraine as a punishment to Zelenskyy not bending the knee to him. More bully boy tactics.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine 'ready to come to negotiating table' - after US pauses military aid

The fallout from last week's argument in the Oval Office has ratcheted up significantly, with the US suspending arms exports to Kyiv for an as-yet unknown period.

news.sky.com

 

[Ivor]

Trump has suspended military aid to Ukraine as a punishment to Zelenskyy not bending the knee to him. More bully boy tactics.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine 'ready to come to negotiating table' - after US pauses military aid

The fallout from last week's argument in the Oval Office has ratcheted up significantly, with the US suspending arms exports to Kyiv for an as-yet unknown period.

news.sky.com

All part of the Trump game plan following last week’s staged meeting.

Unbelievable the way this has played out or maybe it’s not unbelievable?

 

[Cowley]

All part of the Trump game plan following last week’s staged meeting.

Unbelievable the way this has played out or maybe it’s not unbelievable?

Not unbelievable I would say.

It was their tactic to try and make Zelenskyy look ungrateful so that they had a reason to do this, which was their aim all along. I suppose the only thing that didn’t quite work for them was that he didn’t completely lose it on television in that meeting despite extreme provocation.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Not unbelievable I would say.

It was their tactic to try and make Zelenskyy look ungrateful so that they had a reason to do this, which was their aim all along. I suppose the only thing that didn’t quite work for them was that he didn’t completely lose it on television in that meeting despite extreme provocation.

Yeah it's fairly clear that's the plan now!

 

[DarloRich]

We all knew this "pause" in aid was coming. It is outrageous but unsurprising

It was their tactic to try and make Zelenskyy look ungrateful so that they had a reason to do this, which was their aim all along. I suppose the only thing that didn’t quite work for them was that he didn’t completely lose it on television in that meeting despite extreme provocation.

surely the long term aim is to get/force Zelenskyy out and have him replaced by an approved / pliable candidate who will agree to what Putin wants.

The stuff about him being a dictator was clearly pointing that way.

 

[Tetchytyke]

surely the long term aim is to get/force Zelenskyy out and have him replaced by an approved / pliable candidate who will agree to what Putin wants.

Given the US are rumoured to be about to drop sanctions on Russia, I think we know the answer to that.

At this stage the US are clearly not to be trusted. Starmer is a moron if he thinks he can appeal to Trump‘s better side because, quite frankly, he doesn’t have one. I’d have them evicted from Menwith Hill and Diego Garcia tomorrow.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2025 ==

Unbelievable the way this has played out or maybe it’s not unbelievable?

It’s unbelievable that we have a Republican President who is an actual bona fide KGB agent. That sound you can hear is Joseph McCarthy spinning in his grave.

 

[Killingworth]

The judgement of history may not be as we might wish.

I find Trump a most objectionable character on many levels. Vance isn't coming over well either.

However their position is clear. They want to cut all costs for everything funded by the US government. Military aid is a very big part of the spending.

Trump is, in our view, over beholden to Putin for reasons we may question. .There's no doubt he's got a mercurial temperament.

He can see something many may be missing. Zelensky, for totally understandable reasons, gives the impression that a ceasefire might not hold from the Ukrainian side. They want territory back.

Putin is in our eyes, the devil incarnate. That's not how he's perceived in most of Russia.and his forces are very slowly creeping forwards. The Express here has run headlines that Putin has been humiliated on an almost daily basis but he's still there.

Putin has made it very clear that he considers Ukraine is part of Russia, end of. He's written s book about it

Źelensky knows the Russian speaking minority was suffering some discrimination, not least because Russian is his first language.After 2014 efforts were made to ease that but Ukranian remains the official language. Who knows what difference it would have made if models used in countries like Switzerland and South Africa had been adopted. They weren't.

Since 2014 it has been very clear that Ukraine wants to recover everything - and Russia's appetite for more isn't sated. Hot heads on both sides are very likely to test the ceasefire.

To that extent Trump may, just conceivably, have a serious point. Zelensky showed he's not giving up. Very sadly he's going to have to - and can blame it on Trump.

Britain went to war in 1939 in support of Poland - against Germany. But Russia was a co-aggressor all along the Baltic In 1945 we acquiesced in the carve up of Eastern Europe by Russia. We had no other choice. We can hope that once the fighting stops reconciliation can begin, and in another 50 years the dust will have settled.

Where the Starmer peace force usefully and safely fits in this is hard to see. Time will tell but more hard ringing times are likely to be ahead.

 

[DarloRich]

At this stage the US are clearly not to be trusted. Starmer is a moron if he thinks he can appeal to Trump‘s better side because, quite frankly, he doesn’t have one.

I don't think it is trying to appeal to his better side because he doesn't have one. It is more about flattering his fragile ego and putting us in a slightly less damaged postion then other european nations!

I’d have them evicted from Menwith Hill and Diego Garcia tomorrow.

I am not sure it is quite that simple!

Since 2014 it has been very clear that Ukraine wants to recover everything

how much of Kent and Sussex would you give up if France invaded?

 

[Tetchytyke]

the Russian speaking minority was suffering some discrimination

The only “discrimination” they faced was that the Putin Puppet was thrown out of office after the Maidan Revolution in 2014. And how’s life for them in the Donbass these days, their kids being thrown into Putin’s meat grinder.

Putin’s immediate response was to invade the country and, in the process, deliberately murder 300 people on a civilian airliner. The West let him, so he came back for second dibs.

The “discrimination” was and is a Russian lie, exactly the same as it was and is in South Ossetia and in Transnistria.

 

[Killingworth]

how much of Kent and Sussex would you give up if France invaded?

Precisely. Another hypothetical, When Scotland invades do we give up Northumberland?

We haven't had to face these issues for centuries, or maybe we have, Ireland!

But thse are red herrings in the current situation, rabbit holes to be avoided.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don't think it is trying to appeal to his better side because he doesn't have one. It is more about flattering his fragile ego and putting us in a slightly less damaged postion then other european nations!

Trump is capricious and, ultimately, you’re for him or against him. He doesn’t do appeasement. Starmer’s going to have to pick a side.

I am not sure it is quite that simple!

No, of course it isn’t really. But at this stage we need to consider that the US is under the control of an enemy combatant and we need to treat the US military on our shores accordingly.

 

[DarloRich]

Precisely. Another hypothetical, When Scotland invades do we give up Northumberland?

We haven't had to face these issues for centuries, or maybe we have, Ireland!

But thse are red herrings in the current situation, rabbit holes to be avoided.

I note you dodge the question. Could you provide an answer?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2025 ==

No, of course it isn’t really. But at this stage we need to consider that the US is under the control of an enemy combatant and we need to treat the US military on our shores accordingly.

I am more concerned about intelligence sharing. I wonder how " 5 Eyes" is working! I would be very wary of sharing anything with the USA at present. Could you imagine how easily Trump would let slip critical secret data to his chum Putin?