Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[najaB]

Trump seems happy to let Russia keep the stolen bits of Ukraine.
I wonder if he would have the same attitude if Russia decided it wanted to repossess Alaska ?

Depends on whether there was a Trump golf course in the bit they took...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Trump seems happy to let Russia keep the stolen bits of Ukraine.
I wonder if he would have the same attitude if Russia decided it wanted to repossess Alaska ?

Remember he was going to sort it on day 1 well day 100 is up next week so not a good look hence it doesn't matter what the cost is to Ukraine now just as long as he can say I stopped the war.

Journo: You said you would stop the war on day 1
Trump: Did i say that. Next question.

 

[jon0844]

Trump is regularly denying he's said something and I wonder if he's just doing it because he thinks his base will believe it (and they do, even thinking it must have been AI or something when they supposedly watched him say something) OR because he's genuinely forgetting what he said.. either due to creating so many lies, or actually showing signs of dementia.

Depends on whether there was a Trump golf course in the bit they took...

Yeah, Trump would probably sell it in an instant.. and ask Russia to make the cheque out to him.

 

[nlogax]

Trump is regularly denying he's said something and I wonder if he's just doing it because he thinks his base will believe it (and they do, even thinking it must have been AI or something when they supposedly watched him say something) OR because he's genuinely forgetting what he said.. either due to creating so many lies, or actually showing signs of dementia.

Little from column a, little from column b. He barely remembers most of what he's previously uttered. If there's one thing that's been proven to him there've been little to no consequences for denying his own previous statements so he just doesn't care and nor does his hardened cult base.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Elon is hoping he can bow out gracefully and go back to Tesla pretending nothing ever happened. News of Elon stepping back has helped Tesla stock a little, and I guess he'll be promising wonderful new things in the coming months to pump the stock again - but I doubt sales are coming back. Elon needed to leave Tesla, not return. Like Trump, the damage is done.

One thing that I hadn't considered until your post: what actually happens if Elon returns to Tesla and doesn't get the job done?

He's still got SpaceX, but how much patience do the institutional investors have if sales won't recover and Tesla as a brand is finished? Tesla sales are collapsing, and at this point, the remarkable longevity of Tesla can only hurt them as their cars become decent second hand purchases. I don't remember who it was on here that bought a Tesla, but it's pretty clear now that most Teslas will last for a long time. Even the batteries are turning out to be much better than predicted.

Could it be that Elon is somehow stuck in the White House, despite what he's saying now?

 

[jon0844]

Elon is still talking nonsense, and now talking about how the cameras are capable of so much more and can almost match or even beat LiDAR. Then, in other speeches he admits they may not be able to operate robotaxis in bad weather. He's then bragging about successfully moving some cars in an extremely controlled environment (something Waymo has done for years) and basically showing how far behind Tesla is - and how robotaxis are not going to be a thing anytime soon.

But the thing with Tesla is that everyone must know it's a grift, but if they've invested money they have an incentive to help keep the value pumped or at least recover enough so they can cash out. Some people have had the guts to call Tesla out, but many are just playing along as they work out their options.

Tesla is finished. Take away all the subsidies and the company is making a loss, and sales aren't going to grow without building some all-new cars (including smaller, more affordable, models) because the competition have overtaken. Tesla got complacent and arrogant and went the way of many successful 1980s mobile phone manufacturers that rested on their laurels and fell behind when the market took off (e.g. Nokia).

(And to get back to Trump and the Trump presidency; I don't think Elon can stay on forever without having to be given an official position or something? Maybe he has to be elected in some way.. I don't recall the details; but it seems he is bowing out because he'd have to).

 

[najaB]

He's still got SpaceX, but how much patience do the institutional investors have if sales won't recover and Tesla as a brand is finished? Tesla sales are collapsing, and at this point, the remarkable longevity of Tesla can only hurt them as their cars become decent second hand purchases. I don't remember who it was on here that bought a Tesla, but it's pretty clear now that most Teslas will last for a long time. Even the batteries are turning out to be much better than predicted.

Yes or no. The replacement cycle for Teslas is quite long, but there are a lot of ICE vehicles that will be up for replacement - in the UK, EVs are still less than 10% of the total number of cars.

 

[The Ham]

Yes or no. The replacement cycle for Teslas is quite long, but there are a lot of ICE vehicles that will be up for replacement - in the UK, EVs are still less than 10% of the total number of cars.

True, but then an EV didn't have to be a Tesla - even if Teslas are currently better than the competition that might not be the case forever and some may not need the "better" features if they comes at a too high a price.

Also, if EV's last longer then in time, whilst the total number of cars may not change, the average age might, which would mean fewer new cars.

Someone like VW or Ford can afford for their stock prices to take a hit for a few years, if that's needed as they transition to EV's or some other "crisis". Tesla takes a prolonged hit and the loans which the stock is guaranteeing might cause issues.

 

[dgl]

Tesla's aren't better than the competition now, Hyundai/Kia have been the better option both in range and charge time for a while. Plus they have vastly better build quality.

 

[brad465]

Congratulations to Donald Trump on making this election result possible:

Canada's Liberals secure comeback victory made possible by Trump

Mark Carney's party pull off an election win that once looked near-impossible, until the US president targeted Canada.

www.bbc.co.uk

Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have claimed a remarkable victory in the Canadian election – and it appears to have come with a big assist from Donald Trump.
The US president's constant badgering of America's northern neighbour and taunts about making it the 51st US state since his return to office in January coincided with a dramatic reversal in fortune for the centre-left party.
Carney has been almost singularly focused on his neighbour, and this was reflected in his victory speech. After warning that the US wanted Canada's land and resources, Carney declared: "President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never ever happen."
Until Trump's return to power, Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party had held what looked like high and insurmountable ground in voter preference polls amidst general dissatisfaction with the state of the Canadian economy and 10 years of Liberal government under then leader Justin Trudeau.
The past year has been devastating for incumbent governments around the world, with parties all along the political spectrum losing ground or outright control – with the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and India among the most prominent examples.
This Canadian general election broke that trend, as the Liberals forced Trudeau to resign and picked a political outsider, former Bank of England chief Carney, as their leader.
He ran hard against what the party continuously characterised as the real threat Trump posed not just to their economy but also to Canada's very sovereignty.
Although Trump doesn't appear to have the same distaste for Carney that he clearly held for Trudeau, his political and policy interests and those of Canada now appear destined to continue to diverge.
Already there are indications that Canada is looking more toward Europe as a reliable partner, rather than Trump's America – a move that is sure to irk the American leader.
Carney has pledged to quickly begin new trade negotiations with Trump in an attempt to stave off US tariffs on Canadian auto exports set to kick in on 3 May.
The Canadian economy, which heavily depends on exports to the US, is at considerable risk if a full trade war erupts, and Carney – an economist by training and a veteran central banker - has promised voters that he will do everything in his power to keep Canada from tumbling into a recession.
Meanwhile, Trump belly-flopped into Canadian politics one more time on Monday, while voters were casting their ballots, again calling the US-Canadian border "artificially drawn" and saying the nation would be better off as a "cherished" American state.
Carney ascended to political power quite suddenly, at a time when his country is facing a generational challenge from its superpower neighbour. Many world leaders are still working out how to deal with Donald Trump in his second term, but few will face this kind of test.

This weekend is the Australian Federal election, and current polling suggests the Australian Labor party have also seen a revival in recent weeks, so will be another case to watch.

 

[Yew]

My worry is that these parties aren't going to address the core issues, as they have centre-right economic policies, and lead to a bigger backlash at the next elections.

 

[DelW]

I do wonder whether there may be some serious social disorder in the USA in the next few months?

So far most people have been insulated from the consequences of Trump's tariffs. In January and February most businesses didn't really believe he'd be reckless enough to impose punitive tariffs, and continued placing normal orders with Asian suppliers. Those goods have now mostly arrived in US warehouses or stores.

When Trump did impose his tariffs, many businesses didn't consider they'd be able to raise retail prices enough to cover the taxes, and cancelled their Asian orders instead. The result is that incoming container shipments through west coast ports are now around 30% down on normal, with 40% down forecast for May.

Other transportation will follow. Trucking companies, which until recently were short of drivers, are now contemplating layoffs, and the class 1 railroads, notably UP and BNSF with their 2-3 mile long double-stack intermodal box trains, are likely to follow.

Consumer goods shortages will be the result. In some industries (e.g. cars) domestic production will alleviate the situation, though prices will rise due to tariffs on Canadian and Mexican parts. But in goods like toys, clothing, footwear, and electronics, the domestic capacity either doesn't exist or is at the very expensive end of the market. Empty store shelves and unhappy customers will be the outcome.

This situation is surely baked-in already, by the hiatus in incoming shipments now. Even if Trump backtracked today (which he obviously won't), it would take a while for businesses to believe that this wasn't just another temporary flip-flop, and commit to new orders. Those orders would take time to fulfil and ship. By late June and early July, there are likely to be serious and highly unpopular shortages of many goods, and without a change of policy, they will only get worse.

Trump, of course, will blame everyone but himself, and many MAGA believers will still accept everything he says. But his ratings on the economy and employment are already well negative (more disapproving than approving). Where will he go next? The Republican infighting could become vicious.

Interesting times. The turbulence will be worldwide, but I'm glad I don't live in the USA. It might get very nasty.

Source: there is much coverage from US media available on YouTube. This is one brief and apparently reliable description of the status quo:

Craig Fuller, FreightWaves CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss what's going on with freight activity.

 

[brad465]

Remember Bezos sucking up to Trump in The Washington Post and appearing at his inauguration? Well now Amazon are planning to show the impact of tariffs in the cost of their products, and the White House is livid:

White House blasts 'hostile' Amazon over tariffs while marking Trump’s 100 days - live updates

The president's press secretary calls a reported decision to display the cost of Trump's tariffs on individual products a "political move".

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump team blast reports suggesting Amazon will display tariff costs for consumers
​

A question now about reports Amazon will soon display how much the Trump tariffs are adding to the cost of each product.

Leavitt steps in, saying she just got off the phone with the president, who was talking about this.

"This is a hostile and political act by Amazon," she says.

She holds up what appears to be a print out of a news article with a large picture of Amazon owner Jeff Bezos, and she claims it shows Amazon is partnered with a "Chinese propaganda arm".

We'll bring you more on this row as we get it.

With that, the White House briefing ends and Leavitt says Trump will hold a political rally tonight in Michigan. Before the rally, he will meet Michigan's Governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, she adds.

 

[jon0844]

Remember Bezos sucking up to Trump in The Washington Post and appearing at his inauguration? Well now Amazon are planning to show the impact of tariffs in the cost of their products, and the White House is livid:

White House blasts 'hostile' Amazon over tariffs while marking Trump’s 100 days - live updates

The president's press secretary calls a reported decision to display the cost of Trump's tariffs on individual products a "political move".

www.bbc.co.uk

Everyone who gave in to Trump's demands (or donated money, like $1m in the case of Jeff Bezos) soon found it wasn't enough. In fact, the lawyer's that caved are being asked for more and more.

The right thing to do was stand up to Trump from the outset. You won't suddenly become his friend just by making donations.

 

[SuspectUsual]

The fact that telling a simple truth is seen as “hostile and political” shows how low Trump has gone. His press secretary is miles out of her depth and just parrots his li(n)es. But she’s young, blonde and attractive. I wonder why Trump gave her the job?

 

[ainsworth74]

Everyone who gave in to Trump's demands (or donated money, like $1m in the case of Jeff Bezos) soon found it wasn't enough. In fact, the lawyer's that caved are being asked for more and more.

The right thing to do was stand up to Trump from the outset. You won't suddenly become his friend just by making donations.

And yet still companies and various individuals and organisations don't seem to be able to grasp this. He's a bully. This is how he's always done business and always will do business. If you cave in to his demands he'll just come back with more until there's nothing left and you're just totally under his thumb. If you reply in kind and/or tell him to get knotted then he'll back down.

 

[DelW]

Trump is now backtracking on car tariffs, exempting them from steel and aluminium tariffs, and offering "rebates" up to 3.75% depending on how much of their production is in the US. It's not clear what will fund these.

BBC news' summary here:

Trump tariffs: US president eases car import taxes after firms raised concerns

The president said the move would give companies relief while they adjust their supply chains.

www.bbc.co.uk

Officials also moved to shield car firms from facing mounting tariffs on the same items.
They said businesses that have to pay tariffs on cars and parts would not be charged other duties the administration has imposed on steel, aluminium and goods from Canada and Mexico.

Under the modified plan, carmakers will be able to claim an "offset" for what they pay in tariffs on car parts, worth up to 3.75% of the suggested retail price of all the cars they assemble in the US.

That share would fall to 2.5% in the second year.

How manufacturers are supposed to keep abreast of the constant changes, and calculate each tariff rate, I have no idea. I looked at the box of a small Lego set (one of this year's F1 cars), which has components from "Denmark, Mexico, Hungary, China, Vietnam, and Czech Republic". How will tariffs on that be calculated? And Lego makes thousands of such kits, and there are hundreds of companies with similarly diverse supply chains. Who is ever going to have time to calculate, or check, all these products?

 

[jon0844]

The fact that telling a simple truth is seen as “hostile and political” shows how low Trump has gone. His press secretary is miles out of her depth and just parrots his li(n)es. But she’s young, blonde and attractive. I wonder why Trump gave her the job?

Surely all firms need to clearly breakdown charges in their invoices or receipts?

Other companies are showing tariffs on receipts I saw posted online before Amazon, and I'm amazed Trump thinks they should somehow hide them, or perhaps make up another term.

Would 'Biden Tax' be better?

 

[SuspectUsual]

Surely all firms need to clearly breakdown charges in their invoices or receipts?

Other companies are showing tariffs on receipts I saw posted online before Amazon, and I'm amazed Trump thinks they should somehow hide them, or perhaps make up another term.

Would 'Biden Tax' be better?

I think the only charges that need to be shown on receipts are state and federal sales taxes, a bit like our VAT.

But it’s pathetic to criticise someone for pointing out the impact of his policies, but this is Trumpworld after all

 

[Harpo]

The fact that telling a simple truth is seen as “hostile and political” shows how low Trump has gone.

Perhaps Trump is annoyed that Amazon is showing that the ‘millions of dollars pouring in from tariffs’ are coming from Americans?

 

[jon0844]

Perhaps Trump is annoyed that Amazon is showing that the ‘millions of dollars pouring in from tariffs’ are coming from Americans?

That's exactly it. They have got upset every time someone has said it's essentially a tax being it's paid by Americans.

 

[YorkshireBear]

And Amazon have backed down, or never planned to do it, not sure which...

Trump calls Bezos as Amazon says no plan to show tariff price rises

Donald Trump called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to complain about the plan, which the company said had been rejected.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump has called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos after it was reported that the retail giant planned to detail the cost of trade tariffs to its customers.

Amazon said it had looked into itemising the impact for shoppers using Amazon Haul, a low-cost site it launched in the US last year to compete with Shein and Temu.

But it said it had decided not to move forward and the idea had never been under consideration for its main platform....

 

[brad465]

And Amazon have backed down, or never planned to do it, not sure which...

The irony is that this row has drawn more unwanted* attention to the issue than if Amazon had planned it but the White House made no public comment on the matter.

*from the point of view of the Trump administration.

 

[sor]

Dolly firmly ejected from the pram now.

Trump ‘makes trade deal with UK second-order priority’ in blow to ministers

US officials have split negotiations with countries into three phases, sources say, with South Korea taking priority

www.theguardian.com

A trade deal with the US would be the biggest prize for British negotiators, who made major strides toward separate agreements with the EU and India on Tuesday.

But UK officials fear that a deal with the EU, which they hope to agree at a summit on 19 May, could make it more difficult to negotiate with a Trump administration that repeatedly criticises European trade policies.

One person with knowledge of the US talks said: “The US has now decided to negotiate its trade deals in three phases. The government has been told it will not be in phase one – though that leaves the door open to be in either phase two or three.”

Not sure why the Guardian insists on calling it a "blow" - seems like wonderful news to me. The global realignment should continue. The UK should continue to repair relations with its actual largest trading partner. We have managed without a US trade deal so far.

I assume Canada's election result (with Carney stating closer relations with the UK and EU being a major part of his response to Trump's nonsense), along with the rumoured UK/EU reset, is causing Dear Leader to have a hissy over this.

 

[najaB]

Something that hasn't received much press:

Strengthening and Unleashing America’s Law Enforcement to Pursue Criminals and Protect Innocent Citizens

...Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Attorney General and the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security and the heads of agencies as appropriate, shall increase the provision of excess military and national security assets in local jurisdictions to assist State and local law enforcement.

(b) Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Attorney General, shall determine how military and national security assets, training, non-lethal capabilities, and personnel can most effectively be utilized to prevent crime....

In summary, the Executive Order is the first step towards martial law. It sets out that the DOJ and DoD have ninety days to determine how they can use military assets and personnel to supplement law enforcement in enforcing immigration law.

 

[jon0844]

With mounting protests against Trump, it's quite likely they'll seek powers to stop them. Gotta start somewhere so it isn't so obvious.

Also, did Trump really think the MS13 text in the photo he showed was actually tattooed on Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia's hand? Oh dear, seems he did...

(Video showing Trump's apparent confusion about icons and text on the hand of a person deported by mistake to El Salvador prison.)

 

[YorkshireBear]

I hope it's okay to not quote all the page as I can't possibly quote all the pages of live feed. But some highlights quoted below.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c3wx0797d37t

Reading this is just unbelievable. It's like some sort of dystopian comedy.

100 days: Trump's cabinet takes a victory lap
published at 18:27 30 April

As the president opens the floor to questions from from reporters, here's a recap of what the key players had to say during an almost two-hour Cabinet meeting we have been monitoring:

President Donald Trump: briefly summarised achievements of his administration, including deportations and border crossings. He blamed the previous president for the GDP shrinking in the US this quarter. On China, he hopes they will make a deal over the tariffs.

Vice-President JD Vance: called past presidents "placeholders" instead of being "men of action", then turned his attention to the media, blasting them for focusing on "BS" instead of stories on the administration's achievements.

State Secretary Marco Rubio: told the room he is focusing on foreign policy that is good for America, not the world. It is now guided by what is making America stronger, safer and richer.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: avoided mentioning the news today that the US economy has shrunk for the first time since 2022. Instead, he said economic security "has never been better".

Elon Musk: the head of the Department of Government Efficiency drew some laughs when he wore two baseball caps. He used his time to tell the room that "this could be the greatest administration from the dawn of the country".

National Intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard: revealed they have been investigating people for leaking classified information to the media. She's already referred some for criminal prosecution. They're also investigating election integrity.

US does not need most of the things that China produces - Trump
published at 18:46 30 April

Trump is asked about when he will speak to the Chinese president Xi Jinping.

He says "it'll happen".

Trump segues into tariffs and says China is having "tremendous difficulty because their factories are not doing business".

"Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally," he says.

The US does not need most of the things that China is producing and exporting, he adds.

China is the leading candidate for the "chief ripper offer", he says, to laughs in the room.

 

[ainsworth74]

I hope it's okay to not quote as I can't possibly quote all the pages of live feed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c3wx0797d37t

Reading this is just unbelievable. It's like some sort of dystopian comedy.

Someone on social media commented that even Kim Jong Un would consider some of the sycophancy from his Cabinet to be a bit over the top...

 

[YorkshireBear]

Someone on social media commented that even Kim Jong Un would consider some of the sycophancy from his Cabinet to be a bit over the top...

They would. They are lapping it up though, it's just absurd.

 

[brad465]

Something I've learnt this week, Trump's White House Press Secretary has the nickname "Propaganda Barbie."