Siemens made the assumption that the Thameslink order would be the template for the next decade of rolling stock. They didn't expect the goalposts to get moved or DfT to notice the limitations in Desiro City (some unexpected) and step up the requirements again so quickly. Siemens will acknowledge that they dropped the ball and got new product thinking wrong (several years of potential M&A distractions too). (also see Verve)Its almost as if the DfT are scorning Siemens. They’re the only manufacturer without any UK surface orders aren’t they? And yet Hitachi and Bombardier have 3 year lead times. Seems suspect to me.
The 2012 WCML saga caused some reassessments in DfT and they became much more on the ball on rolling stock requirements. In this case they realised you needed to the get standing densities safely on moving trains not just in a stationary interior mock ups...
DfT also learned from IET roll out hence the stricter requirements for MML bimodes, it isn't just Siemens seeing the goal posts moved.
Hitachi have very little work in 2020 and beyond.
It looks like DfT realised that lots of potentially short lifespan rolling stock (10-15 years) was being procured, hence they raised the bar to ensure full useful forking life specified from the new. E.g. 701s have the performance to match potential CR2 stock but 707s not. The Aventra platform is also a bit lighter and with better energy efficiency leading to less requirement for power supply upgrades.
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