EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Aictos · 25 Oct 2019

I’ve got a question for those who are against Brexit, apart from obviously staying in the EU (remember the public only got a vote on membership for the common market as it was AFTER being dragged in) what deal would they be happy with?

I’ve heard plenty of leaving and staying in the EU but interested to see if those against actually have any alternatives to remaining in the EU?

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Bletchleyite · 25 Oct 2019

Howardh said:
So how is someone on a private and state pension gonna benefit financially from Brexit? I need to know as I'm trying to plan the next ten years and will have savings to turn into an annuity for starters. If the answer is "don't know" then that's not good enough, I'd rather stay with the devil we know - low inflation, low-ish but stable interest rates. No good if inflation kicks off unless I accept a lower annuity but it's index linked.

There are basically no benefits to a law-abiding, taxpaying citizen of Brexit.

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
There are basically no benefits to a law-abiding, taxpaying citizen of Brexit.

Surely a loyal Brexiter can direct me to a half-decent tax haven??

DaleCooper · 25 Oct 2019

Howardh said:
So how is someone on a private and state pension gonna benefit financially from Brexit? I need to know as I'm trying to plan the next ten years and will have savings to turn into an annuity for starters. If the answer is "don't know" then that's not good enough, I'd rather stay with the devil we know - low inflation, low-ish but stable interest rates. No good if inflation kicks off unless I accept a lower annuity but it's index linked.

As a pensioner that is my main worry about Brexit, half my income is state pension which is index linked (at present) but the other half is fixed. I decided on the fixed pension 8 years ago when things seemed a lot more stable.

Peter Kelford · 25 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
There are basically no benefits to a law-abiding, taxpaying citizen of Brexit.

Not to the average man on the street, no.

Howardh said:
Surely a loyal Brexiter can direct me to a half-decent tax haven??

The future UK, if we crash out.

furnessvale said:
All have been rehearsed many times within the 21000 posts in this thread and more in others.

You disagree with them which is your right but I have no intention of getting back on the roundabout.

What Brexit means to one person differs from what it means to the next man. Being so personal, perhaps we can hear your opinion? I would be refreshing to hear an open and articulate Brexiteer who isn't a politician.

DaleCooper · 25 Oct 2019

Peter Kelford said:
What Brexit means to one person differs from what it means to the next man. Being so personal, perhaps we can hear your opinion? I would be refreshing to hear an open and articulate Brexiteer who isn't a politician.

It's obvious he's not going to answer, I wonder why?

Mvann · 25 Oct 2019

So presumably the fact that we export only 46% of our total exports to the EU now compared 55% in 2006 and had been as high as 64% in the 1980s is not the answer you want to here. Presumably also the fact that the Eurozone interest rate is 0% and they can't induce an inflation rate anywhere near its 2% goal for toffee is not the answer you are looking for. Also the fact that the ECB is going to have to either bend or change their own rules to be able to keep purchasing debt isn't the answer you are looking for.

SteveP29 · 25 Oct 2019

DerekC said:
And the Brexiteers will blame the inevitable downturn on Parliament, delays to Brexit and lack of a "clean break"

The EU will inevitibly be blamed before Parliament if we're ever in a situation where we're actually out.
They'll be telling us that the EU wants to stifle our every move in trying to get a trade deal with them, if and as is almost certain, the deal is on the 27's terms and not ours.

edwin_m · 25 Oct 2019

Enthusiast said:
Not as daft as you'd have us believe. Mrs May's "Withdrawal" Agreement (aka an alternative to the Lisbon Treaty) contained some passages which consigned the UK to aspects of an alternative membership from which it could not resign without the EU's consent. The EU was perfectly happy with those conditions (as well they might be).

The EU is solely interested in protecting the interests of its own members, specifically Ireland in this case. If an external state wants to achieve this by following certain EU rules and both sides agreed that this is workable then the EU will be happy. The fact it irks certain people in the external state is a matter for that state's government and the EU is certainly not going to interfere.

furnessvale said:
All have been rehearsed many times within the 21000 posts in this thread and more in others.

You disagree with them which is your right but I have no intention of getting back on the roundabout.

We haven't been shown anything to disagree with. In six months on this thread I've not seen a single justification to leave the EU that stands up to a simple challenge, so I have to conclude that there are none.

For the avoidance of doubt, the fact the people voted for it in 2016 is not a justification because any reasons to leave put forward at that time have since been discredited, so 2016 can't be seen as an informed choice. There has also been some discussion about immigration but demonstrated that free movement was not a cause of the UK's problems, and could if necessary have been restricted without leaving the EU.

So if you have anything else to offer, please put up.

edwin_m · 25 Oct 2019

Mvann said:
So presumably the fact that we export only 46% of our total exports to the EU now compared 55% in 2006 and had been as high as 64% in the 1980s is not the answer you want to here. Presumably also the fact that the Eurozone interest rate is 0% and they can't induce an inflation rate anywhere near its 2% goal for toffee is not the answer you are looking for. Also the fact that the ECB is going to have to either bend or change their own rules to be able to keep purchasing debt isn't the answer you are looking for.

Thereby demonstrating that we can quite happily trade externally as an EU member. These benefits claimed from trading with far-flung former colonies (but only the white ones) are basically piffle. We also have an opt-out from the Eurozone and its problems.

Mvann · 25 Oct 2019

edwin_m said:
Thereby demonstrating that we can quite happily trade externally as an EU member. These benefits claimed from trading with far-flung former colonies (but only the white ones) are basically piffle. We also have an opt-out from the Eurozone and its problems.

And also proving that over time, with the General downward trend of exports going to the EU, the less need for us to be in the EU. We have the opt ou from the Eurozone, but that doesn't actually mean we wouldn't suffer any effects of their problems

edwin_m · 25 Oct 2019

Mvann said:
And also proving that over time, with the General downward trend of exports going to the EU, the less need for us to be in the EU. We have the opt ou from the Eurozone, but that doesn't actually mean we wouldn't suffer any effects of their problems

That trend would certainly accelerate if we leave without single market and customs union membership, and I see no evidence it would be counteracted by any significant increase in exports to other countries. Cutting off links with one of our main markets because of possible future problems isn't a sensible course of action.

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

edwin_m said:
Thereby demonstrating that we can quite happily trade externally as an EU member. These benefits claimed from trading with far-flung former colonies (but only the white ones) are basically piffle. We also have an opt-out from the Eurozone and its problems.

Indeed, 54% of our exports are mainly, if not wholly, due to EU deals with third countries, so 54% of our trade will have to be renegotiated with that 46%. How many years will that take, during which both sides are likely to be trapped into tariffs?

Peter Kelford · 25 Oct 2019

DaleCooper said:
It's obvious he's not going to answer, I wonder why?

Hmm... I wonder...

DynamicSpirit · 25 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
There are basically no benefits to a law-abiding, taxpaying citizen of Brexit.

I'm pretty sure that's not correct. As a strong remainer, I would say that the benefits of remaining in the EU far, far, outweigh any benefits of Brexit. But it's not true that there are no benefits. A couple that come to mind are:

Fall in value of the £ will help exporters, and bring in more tourists and more overseas students (though offset by a potential fall in EU students due to losing free movement).
Fall in immigration will mean slightly less pressure on housing and house prices. It also means population in areas that have had high immigration may stabilise more, making it easier to plan local infrastructure.
Fall in EU immigration will mean less pressure on the Government to keep such tight controls on non-EU immigration. And we'll get a more level playing field for migrants from EU vs non-EU countries.

I emphasize that I don't see those benefits as remotely competing with all the disadvantages of leaving, but I don't think we should deny that they exist.

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
I'm pretty sure that's not correct. As a strong remainer, I would say that the benefits of remaining in the EU far, far, outweigh any benefits of Brexit. But it's not true that there are no benefits. A couple that come to mind are:

Fall in value of the £ will help exporters, and bring in more tourists and more overseas students (though offset by a potential fall in EU students due to losing free movement).

Fall in immigration will mean slightly less pressure on housing and house prices. It also means population in areas that have had high immigration may stabilise more, making it easier to plan local infrastructure.

Fall in EU immigration will mean less pressure on the Government to keep such tight controls on non-EU immigration. And we'll get a more level playing field for migrants from EU vs non-EU countries.

I emphasize that I don't see those benefits as remotely competing with all the disadvantages of leaving, but I don't think we should deny that they exist.

Immigration - won't there be more pressure on immigration officers as now all the EU's will have to be processed more thoroughly (ie they will need passports not ID cards, and will probably be asked the length of stay and can they support themselves) which will take a lot longer than the usual swipe-and-walk e-gates?
Basically, it will take us, returning home, as long as it takes now (which could be an hour or more judging by the inbound queues @ Manchester Airport sometimes) but EU's a lot longer, holding things up?
Whereas if we joined Schengen there would be no immigration queues at all as EU/UK flights would be "domestic"!

Bletchleyite · 25 Oct 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
Fall in immigration will mean slightly less pressure on housing and house prices. It also means population in areas that have had high immigration may stabilise more, making it easier to plan local infrastructure.

You assume there will be a fall in immigration. As British people are not having enough kids, immigration is the only way to maintain the pyramid scheme that is the entire social care and pensions system. The whole thing only works if the ratio of working vs non-working people doesn't change negatively.

I very much doubt those who want less immigration will be willing to address that in different ways, e.g. paying more for it themselves. Which is why the Government keeps on with immigration.

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
You assume there will be a fall in immigration. As British people are not having enough kids, immigration is the only way to maintain the pyramid scheme that is the entire social care and pensions system. The whole thing only works if the ratio of working vs non-working people doesn't change negatively.

I very much doubt those who want less immigration will be willing to address that in different ways, e.g. paying more for it themselves. Which is why the Government keeps on with immigration.

We'll probably have to accept more immigration if trade deals with other countries force that. keep hearing "control" of immigration. Put it this way, I have exactly ten pints of lager every day, so I'm controlling what I drink. The mere fact that it's way too much is irrelevant, it's under "control"! Note, I don't have 10 pints of lager a day - it's hypothetical.

I need 20 these days....

bramling · 25 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
You assume there will be a fall in immigration. As British people are not having enough kids, immigration is the only way to maintain the pyramid scheme that is the entire social care and pensions system. The whole thing only works if the ratio of working vs non-working people doesn't change negatively.

I very much doubt those who want less immigration will be willing to address that in different ways, e.g. paying more for it themselves. Which is why the Government keeps on with immigration.

It’s all very well advocating a pyramid system until space runs out. Parts of the country are already reaching the point where it is proving difficult to increase population density without negative implications.

I’ve saved for my retirement, so I have no vested interest in the pyramid.

Puffing Devil · 25 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
All have been rehearsed many times within the 21000 posts in this thread and more in others.

You disagree with them which is your right but I have no intention of getting back on the roundabout.

New deal, new benefits. We now have something concrete to discuss. If I didn't know better I would think that you have nothing and are all bluster. Now, who could that also remind me of....

Bletchleyite · 25 Oct 2019

bramling said:
It’s all very well advocating a pyramid system until space runs out. Parts of the country are already reaching the point where it is proving difficult to increase population density without negative implications.

I’ve saved for my retirement, so I have no vested interest in the pyramid.

The UK is about 95% undeveloped land. The problem is the concentration of jobs on the South East, not that as such.

Puffing Devil · 25 Oct 2019

bramling said:
It’s all very well advocating a pyramid system until space runs out. Parts of the country are already reaching the point where it is proving difficult to increase population density without negative implications.

Is that the fault of immigration, or the fault of a government not planning and building infrastructure in addition to encouraging moves away from honeypots?

bramling said:
I’ve saved for my retirement, so I have no vested interest in the pyramid.

Says the true Brexiteer and Conservative with a few £££ - I'm OK so **** the rest of you.

Bantamzen · 25 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
All have been rehearsed many times within the 21000 posts in this thread and more in others.

You disagree with them which is your right but I have no intention of getting back on the roundabout.

In order to find oneself "getting back on the roundabout", one first has to get on the roundabout. And for the 703 pages (and counting) on this thread, I have yet to see any real argument as to why Brexit is good for ordinary plebs like me (well, maybe not ordinary

). There's plenty of potential minus points, just not a whole lot of positives that will actually improve our lives. But to be fair, in nearly four years of shouting and posturing, the leave campaign & it's supporters have also failed to articulate the positives.

So colour me cynical, but I suspect you have nothing to offer on this?

Bletchleyite said:
There are basically no benefits to a law-abiding, taxpaying citizen of Brexit.

Is the correct answer. Do you wish to take your winnings, or go for Double or Nothing.....??

Enthusiast · 25 Oct 2019

Howardh said:
I'd rather stay with the devil we know...

The "Devil that you know" is the EU only as it stands today. It is no more likely to be that same Devil in ten years' time than the UK (as a non-member) is. You only have to look at the evolution of the EU (and its predecessors) to see that. The EU and many of its members have enormous problems (most of the major ones being of the EU's own making) and major changes will have to be made which may not suit the UK (especially being outside the euro and Schengen. if it were to remain and retain those opt-outs). Compared to today you will not recognise the EU of 2030 any more than you will the UK - whenever and however we leave.

Enthusiast · 25 Oct 2019

Bantamzen said:
But to be fair, in nearly four years of shouting and posturing, the leave campaign & it's supporters have also failed to articulate the positives.

And to be fair, neither has the Remain campaign. It only says how bad and awkward leaving will be. Hardly a ringing endorsement for remaining. I suppose the acid test might be if the UK was not (and had never been) a member, would it be clamouring to join?

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

Enthusiast said:
The "Devil that you know" is the EU only as it stands today. It is no more likely to be that same Devil in ten years' time than the UK (as a non-member) is. You only have to look at the evolution of the EU (and its predecessors) to see that. The EU and many of its members have enormous problems (most of the major ones being of the EU's own making) and major changes will have to be made which may not suit the UK (especially being outside the euro and Schengen. if it were to remain and retain those opt-outs). Compared to today you will not recognise the EU of 2030 any more than you will the UK - whenever and however we leave.

Well we won't be having any say in the direction of the EU. It's not beyond the bounds that the EU could extend itself way beyond Europe at some point in the future, maybe even having the US and Canada as full members! Then where would that leave tiny little England and Wales??!!

But, hey, let's sit on the outside and let others determine our future. Sounds like a plan. A Baldrick plan!

edwin_m · 25 Oct 2019

Enthusiast said:
The "Devil that you know" is the EU only as it stands today. It is no more likely to be that same Devil in ten years' time than the UK (as a non-member) is. You only have to look at the evolution of the EU (and its predecessors) to see that. The EU and many of its members have enormous problems (most of the major ones being of the EU's own making) and major changes will have to be made which may not suit the UK (especially being outside the euro and Schengen. if it were to remain and retain those opt-outs). Compared to today you will not recognise the EU of 2030 any more than you will the UK - whenever and however we leave.

If we stay in we have some chance to influence it and some parts are still subject to the veto. Even to move towards a two-speed Europe where those who want to integrate (and for example meet the rigorous entry criterial for the Eurozone) can do so and the rest can be more on the margins. By leaving, all of that is out of our control and we just watch as the giant market on our doorstep re-defines itself as something we don't like.

And in any case, it's ridiculous to leave the EU now because of what it might become in the future. If in some way it's become unacceptable to the UK in 2020, then there is the option to leave in 2020.

Enthusiast said:
And to be fair, neither has the Remain campaign. It only says how bad and awkward leaving will be. Hardly a ringing endorsement for remaining. I suppose the acid test might be if the UK was not (and had never been) a member, would it be clamouring to join?

The Remain campaign wasn't well run but had the more difficult job of arguing for a continuation of the current situation (your wild ravings above about the future of the EU notwithstanding). It's human nature to see things in the current situation that could be improved, while failing to see what is right at present and might be lost by changing things. And in any case we lose the opportunity to improve the EU by leaving it.

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

edwin_m said:
The Remain campaign wasn't well run but had the more difficult job of arguing for a continuation of the current situation

Especially when you are promised the earth by a bunch of skivs who simply want to line their own pockets. But I do have some sympathy for those with nothing who had nothing to lose - those are the ones the remain campaign deserted; and of course after Brexit they will still be with nothing and deserted.

Peter Kelford · 25 Oct 2019

Howardh said:
maybe even having the US and Canada as full members!

We could look east to China as well, if we consider the US

bramling · 25 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
The UK is about 95% undeveloped land. The problem is the concentration of jobs on the South East, not that as such.

It's all well and good saying that, but rebalancing towards elsewhere hasn't happened, and is showing no sign of happening. There's little benefit in housing people in places where they don't want to be and/or can't find work. Meanwhile good luck developing the many mountainous parts of Wales, Scotland or even England.

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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