R G NOW.
Member
If tightening what would be the outcome? or be subjected to then.
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Coronavirus.
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Could be lots of things. I suspect the most likely given peoples' behaviour so far is the removal of the exercise option, i.e. you are only allowed out to purchase food or for medical reasons. It would also be possible to close down more businesses, potentially only leaving pharmacies and supermarkets.
R G NOW.
Member
I would be hoping for a lessor one as I could do with my chip shop open as my landlord can't fix the cooker as the builders yards are also shut. So if some shops could reopen would be a help to everyone I believe.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That sounds like an excuse on his part because some DIY type stores are open and parts can still be ordered online. I'd push him more personally.
everyone understands the concept of a virus that kills people, and it’s probably killing more of the poor
Chances of a four day full lockdown for Bank Holiday??
Neen Sollars
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I strongly believe C19 was active in the UK in December and January 2020, long before officially known. My family and neighbours and friends experienced illnesses similar to C19 symptoms during this period and I attended two funerals in first two months of this year, someone I spoke to had attended four. Do you share a similar experience at the start of this year? Majority of deaths have victims who were/are elderly and those with "underlying health issues". If I am correct, official selective antibody testing should undertaken nationwide to establish the facts. Has herd immunity already occurred? Then let the rest of the public purchase their own antibody tests, let them feed in the results data online, build in a margin of 30/40% of error. Those in the vulnerable category have to remain isolated, supported by neighbours and family. The rest take their chance, if you have immunity get on with your life, if you don`t and are healthy, your choice is take a chance of getting C19 and surviving or perhaps not surviving. We have to hope for a vaccine by the end of 2020.
The world economy is being trashed, is heading for a depression, and yes lockdown must end soon to prevent not only civil disorder but an economic meltdown which will very quickly lead to it in any event
The world economy is being trashed, is heading for a depression, and yes lockdown must end soon to prevent not only civil disorder but an economic meltdown which will very quickly lead to it in any event
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The short answer is, nobody knows.
R G NOW.
Member
I seem to have similar symptoms back in early February and thought of it as a usual chill. I had some Lemsips and it went after about three days.
Neen Sollars
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Yes, and I think that will be shown to be a policy flaw after the event. Lets get official antibody testing out there now.
lets very much not do that until we have the peak under NHS control.
Give everyone antibody tests before contact tracing is set up and lockdown will collapse causing a catastrophe for the NHS.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
It would not entirely surprise me. It would be easy to do because it coincides with a likely peak, and is likely to be the time of most issues with people being out places.
It's not so bad on working days as enough people are still working in various forms e.g. from home. Indeed, I suspect that's one reason why the Government is leaving many businesses going - even if you're not socially isolating properly at work, you're only having contact with a small number of people compared with a chock-full London park.
Let's put it this way, if Bojo has another one of his 8pm "serious sessions"[1] arranged for Thursday evening, I'm going to be in no doubt of what it's going to say.
FWIW shops already close Easter Sunday anyway (one of only two days a year, the other being Christmas day). It wouldn't be an entirely massive step to close all businesses for all four days - food shops and pharmacies too, only hospitals open for those needing emergency treatment and literally nothing else. A full lockdown for those four days - everyone at home unless you're a doctor or nurse, basically, with special transport arrangements for them and no general public transport at all, would be quite easy to do with limited damage to business and might have quite an effect.
[1] The press conference has lost its purpose and many people are drifting away from it now it isn't announcing anything new. I reckon it could and should be reduced to one a week plus formal addresses for any change in the rules.
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I think they’ll keep current restrictions on:
1) deaths have yet to plateau let alone drop, other nations kept on lockdown until then at least.
2) they still need to build capacity to deal with the cases.
3) not yet able to do widescale (millions) of tests to start “clearing” those that have been exposed already.
Once those 3 conditions are met or about to be, they will start easing it.
I don’t expect a tightening as they have cut 90% of infectious activity out already and getting the last bit would literally mean keeping people in at gunpoint and centrally organised food delivery for all. Neither of which is possible.
it is possible the rules on exercise and enforcement will get tighter - but I think that is more about trying to stop the majority following the minority in breaking the current direction, and the usual over-reaction when enforcement gets going.
i think it’ll be 3-4 more weeks, perhaps 6, and that fits with statements that the peak is about then.
A lifting would be allowing those who cant work from home to go to work (many many jobs) with reopening of businesses - whilst encouraging those who can to stay there. Continued bans on large planned gatherings (sports etc) likely for months.
For vulnerable people, staying on lockdown for months is likely but with support now targeted at specifically them.
1) deaths have yet to plateau let alone drop, other nations kept on lockdown until then at least.
2) they still need to build capacity to deal with the cases.
3) not yet able to do widescale (millions) of tests to start “clearing” those that have been exposed already.
Once those 3 conditions are met or about to be, they will start easing it.
I don’t expect a tightening as they have cut 90% of infectious activity out already and getting the last bit would literally mean keeping people in at gunpoint and centrally organised food delivery for all. Neither of which is possible.
it is possible the rules on exercise and enforcement will get tighter - but I think that is more about trying to stop the majority following the minority in breaking the current direction, and the usual over-reaction when enforcement gets going.
i think it’ll be 3-4 more weeks, perhaps 6, and that fits with statements that the peak is about then.
A lifting would be allowing those who cant work from home to go to work (many many jobs) with reopening of businesses - whilst encouraging those who can to stay there. Continued bans on large planned gatherings (sports etc) likely for months.
For vulnerable people, staying on lockdown for months is likely but with support now targeted at specifically them.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That's already the case.
Neen Sollars
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I would just like to praise all those in the medical sector working through this pandemic. I signed an online petition calling for them to be properly supplied with personal protective equipment (PPE - I know Yorkie is about) and I want to say something else. They are being overworked. They signed up in whatever capacity to heal the sick and combat disease, illness and injury. They did not sign up to die. They are not military personnel for whom death is a known risk when you sign up. The frontline medical staff are the victims here too. They are being worked too hard and for too long they are becoming exhausted and weakened, constant exposure to the infection will lead to some dying of it. I think this is unaccepatable, the NHS should bring in a rigorous shift system of say two weeks on one week off to protect staff well being.
My understanding is that people who can't work from home are already allowed to travel to work.
Any relaxation will have to include some provision for those who don't drive to use public transport, otherwise it's a relaxation in name only.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
The "rules" on the use of public transport are the same as driving, other than that if you've got a car it's considerate to use it.
Currently they are.
When it gets to the point that we're allowed to fraternize with people again, they should take account that some people live away from their friends and family, so public transport will be required.
Interesting (and fairly easy reading) review article from the Lancet about the challenges of producing accurate CoV2 antibody tests.
There also seems to be the potential for long lasting immunity to CoV2 if the researchers they’ve talked to are correct and people who recovered from SARS 15 years ago are still producing antibodies capable of neutralizing (killing) lab cultured SARS virus today.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30788-1/fulltext
There also seems to be the potential for long lasting immunity to CoV2 if the researchers they’ve talked to are correct and people who recovered from SARS 15 years ago are still producing antibodies capable of neutralizing (killing) lab cultured SARS virus today.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30788-1/fulltext
You would have to balance that up against it being a source of panic buying in shops and greater numbers going there over the course of this week. If supermarkets were to be closed for four days at this stage, a lot of fresh produce might go to waste or people on shifts might find it difficult to get supplies before the weekend.
I'm on board with the idea of a full lockdown but I think it a little impractical to announce on Thursday night.
This is so true. More needs to be made of this. I know that they keep saying that going out causes people to die but it needs to be made clear that it is healthcare professionals, not elderly or vulnerable people who we are first and foremost trying to protect.
I guess you don't want water, electricity, gas, telecoms, their respective on-call engineers, fuel deliveries, food and supply deliveries (and all those in that supply chain) during the 4 day "full lockdown" then. Shutting food and pharmacy shops for 4 days will create a massive supply problem leading up to the lockdown as well as create more health and wellbeing issues as many more people will go out a shop.
Given that there is usually weeks from contracting the virus until a death, and that there can be long delays before deaths are reported and appear in the figures, I believe we must already be well past the peak of cases. Once the hospitals show they have spare capacity again the lockdown has to be lifted, at least for under 70s with no health issues. I would hope this is by May. People seem to enjoy spouting worst case scenarios with 6 months of lockdown etc. The lockdown is just to flatten the curve, not stop the spread completely.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
I disagree. It is the only tool for holding the government to account. It has got better this week with more questions and "come back". It also allows us to hear from experts who actually know what they are talking about
Especially since Parliament isn't sitting.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Absolutely.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I suppose it could be announced sooner, but I do think the long weekend which already has one day on which almost everything is normally shut anyway provides a fairly unique opportunity.
I think far too early to identify when ‘lockdown’ will end, but I can envisage a tightening of controls.
I think the government need to view data from the current lockdown to see if previous three weeks has had any impact. I don’t see this happening before BJ’s review of the lockdown. It will be extended regardless - either stronger with police enforcing persistently and consistently or taking away the option of exercising outside of your own house.
I don’t envisage schools being back until Summer 2 - 9 weeks for schools in North Yorkshire, and I only envisage this happening so that we have the six week holiday five weeks after to continue social distancing and enabling us to either avert a second round, or enable us to identify, contact trace and isolate.
I think the government need to view data from the current lockdown to see if previous three weeks has had any impact. I don’t see this happening before BJ’s review of the lockdown. It will be extended regardless - either stronger with police enforcing persistently and consistently or taking away the option of exercising outside of your own house.
I don’t envisage schools being back until Summer 2 - 9 weeks for schools in North Yorkshire, and I only envisage this happening so that we have the six week holiday five weeks after to continue social distancing and enabling us to either avert a second round, or enable us to identify, contact trace and isolate.
I don't think closing essential shops for the four day holiday weekend is the answer in as much as closing parks any time is. We need as much space as possible whether to exercise or to shop to allow us to keep our 2m distance from others. I would argue that essential shops should actually be allowed to open on Easter Sunday to help facilitate this. Closing shops for four days will only lead to overcrowding and queues either side of the four day holiday period.
Arglwydd Golau
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Do they? it's impossible to read any article at the moment without a quote from an 'expert', and they very often disagree about the interpretation of statistics etc. and a particular course of action. I don't like the manner in which the word is used today.
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