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GEML franchise 2016

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dk1

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Eastern Daily Press showing incorrect information again.

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/four_tr...eat_yarmouth_cancelled_this_morning_1_4665940

There are no cancellations today, from the times it looks like there was a problem with the Class 68 last Saturday.

One of the 37s failed this morning resulting in cancellation of the 09:06 & 09:52 return Yarmouth holiday reliefs. The 10:25 was reinstated & its 11:13 return was well used with 120 passengers along with copious amounts off luggage/pushchairs.

The errant locomotive was repaired & is back in traffic.
 
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Simon11

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Backing up my post on the day of announcement of the award, that this franchise will fail, Rail Business has reported that Abellio will need 15% compound annual revenue growth every year!

For a regular TOC with no changes, getting 5% annual revenue growth is challenging enough. With brexit, who knows!
 

The Ham

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Backing up my post on the day of announcement of the award, that this franchise will fail, Rail Business has reported that Abellio will need 15% compound annual revenue growth every year!

For a regular TOC with no changes, getting 5% annual revenue growth is challenging enough. With brexit, who knows!

I wonder what assumptions were made to mean that 15% growth was required? I would suggest it would very much depend on what the new trains are costing, as if the lease and maintenance costs work out to be broadly the same as with the older (less reliable) stock then growth wouldn't need to be that high.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Backing up my post on the day of announcement of the award, that this franchise will fail, Rail Business has reported that Abellio will need 15% compound annual revenue growth every year!

For a regular TOC with no changes, getting 5% annual revenue growth is challenging enough. With brexit, who knows!

Future premiums from TOCs to DfT for this round of franchises are linked to GDP growth.
If GDP goes into reverse, the premiums will go down (or at least, not rise by as much).
But there's no "cap and collar" or revenue support.
 

deltic

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I wonder what assumptions were made to mean that 15% growth was required? I would suggest it would very much depend on what the new trains are costing, as if the lease and maintenance costs work out to be broadly the same as with the older (less reliable) stock then growth wouldn't need to be that high.

Charges for new rolling stock will be less than for present stock. Transfer of services to London Rail also complicates comparisons.
 

Simon11

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They would have built a huge revenue model, to forcast revenue growth which will come from things such as GDP, London employment, quicker journey times, new train services, new trains (things like these are modeled through PDFC), passenger initiatives, better revenue protection etc
 

TheEdge

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Backing up my post on the day of announcement of the award, that this franchise will fail, Rail Business has reported that Abellio will need 15% compound annual revenue growth every year!

For a regular TOC with no changes, getting 5% annual revenue growth is challenging enough. With brexit, who knows!

I suspect there has been a lot of assurances given by the DfT. This is a truly massive stock order and not only will it help East Anglia but it will go some way to helping the general diesel unit shortage nationally, twelve 170s and nine 156s plus the hundreds of EMUs. This order isn't only going to be funded by Abellio.
 

dk1

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I suspect there has been a lot of assurances given by the DfT. This is a truly massive stock order and not only will it help East Anglia but it will go some way to helping the general diesel unit shortage nationally, twelve 170s and nine 156s plus the hundreds of EMUs. This order isn't only going to be funded by Abellio.

EDP today talking about funding for the new station at Broadland Business Park & a half hourly Bittern service to North Walsham. Do you thing NCC/Aviva will fund the additional unit/crew?
 

Panupreset

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Some infrastructure investment is desperately needed too. New rolling stock is brilliant but if like today you get a heat related 20mph ESR on the UM near Stratford and 50mph Shenfield to Southend then it's same old same old delays from the passenger point of view.
 

Bald Rick

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Some infrastructure investment is desperately needed too. New rolling stock is brilliant but if like today you get a heat related 20mph ESR on the UM near Stratford and 50mph Shenfield to Southend then it's same old same old delays from the passenger point of view.

A heat related 20 ESR will be because of infrastructure investment. It will be new track (or rails) that has yet to be fully destressed, or not fully bedded in. The laws of physics unfortunately.
 

dk1

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Some infrastructure investment is desperately needed too. New rolling stock is brilliant but if like today you get a heat related 20mph ESR on the UM near Stratford and 50mph Shenfield to Southend then it's same old same old delays from the passenger point of view.

As said it was due to investment. Short section at Manor Park & only let themselves down by time taken to erect boards. Was only 4 late into the Street.
 

ginger

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The latest from abellio HQ received this morning..........the "72 new trains by Jan 2017 is interesting.......presumably 387s

I am pleased to be able to let you know that the Department for Transport has now confirmed Abellio as the operator of the new East Anglia rail franchise, after being announced as Preferred Bidder on the 10th August.



Firstly, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank you for your input during last year's bidding process. We are very grateful for the thoughts, suggestions and insights you provided. Your views not only strengthened the DfT's Invitation to Tender, they enabled our bid team to put together creative and bid-winning ideas, many of which have been incorporated into what we will deliver, which is well above and beyond the franchise specification to achieve a transformation of rail services for the whole of East Anglia.



We now have exciting plans to roll-out during a nine year franchise which allows us to build on the improvements we have made during two very short franchise periods since 2012. By the end of 2020, all Greater Anglia customers will be travelling on brand new trains. A new fleet of 1,043 new carriages being built by Bombardier in Derby and Stadler in Switzerland will feature many of the comforts and amenities stakeholders and customers told us they expected, such as WiFi and air conditioning and more capacity for a growing railway. At the same time, we will have completely rewritten the timetable for the entire network with faster journey times on many routes and improved connections between the important regional centres and beyond. . We also know how important a reliable service is to you and the new timetable will be just one of the initiatives which will help us to provide a higher-performing railway over the franchise.



We'll also be spending around £60 million on modernising and refurbishing stations, adding thousands more car and cycle parking spaces. We will upgrade the customer information available at every station on the network, and make the fares system work better for our customers - introducing flexible 'carnet' tickets and extending smart and mobile ticketing.



In the shorter term, we'll be introducing 72 new carriages in January 2017 to add much needed additional capacity, updating the existing rolling stock with WiFi, making better provision for people with disabilities, carrying out 'deep cleans' of all stations and investing in new traineeships and apprenticeships.

In the next few weeks, we'd like to tell you more about our plans for the new franchise and will organise a number of 'roadshows' around the Greater Anglia franchise area. We'll be back in touch with more details about these and to send you an invitation.
 

hwl

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The latest from abellio HQ received this morning..........the "72 new trains by Jan 2017 is interesting.......presumably 387s

QUOTE

In the shorter term, we'll be introducing 72 new carriages in January 2017 to add much needed additional capacity, updating the existing rolling stock with WiFi, making better provision for people with disabilities,

UNQUOTE

I'm not sure Bombardier would be able to supply anything before Jan 17 given they are already building 387s for GWR (45 Units) and C2C (6 units) with delivery dates in 2016 for both the C2C units and a reasonable number of GWR ones.

Does new mean "new" or just extra?

72 = 18x 4car units

13x 321s ex GN coming off lease by the end of this year.
12x 317 in slightly longer time scale

Or plenty of 319s...
 

jw

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RAIL reporting 12x317 and 6x321s.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk
 

swt_passenger

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about as "new" as I suspected!

In the later link that has just been posted they are referred to as 'additional' rather than new. I suggest 'temporary' might have been a good work to use as well.

So should we be critical, or supportive, of a short term increase in capacity while they get the brand new stock in place?

ISTM that when a TOC fails to take on temporary stock they get criticised, e.g. in the case of "why can't LO take on temporary EMUs for the newly electrified GOBLIN" suggested in these forums, and then when they do take on temporary EMUs (like in this case) they still get criticised... :roll:
 

hwl

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In the later link that has just been posted they are referred to as 'additional' rather than new. I suggest 'temporary' might have been a good work to use as well.

So should we be critical, or supportive, of a short term increase in capacity while they get the brand new stock in place?

ISTM that when a TOC fails to take on temporary stock they get criticised, e.g. in the case of "why can't LO take on temporary EMUs for the newly electrified GOBLIN" suggested in these forums, and then when they do take on temporary EMUs (like in this case) they still get criticised... :roll:

I'm not being critical and I don't think we should be (apart from their choice of words!) , but very supportive and in this case as they already operate the same classes of stock so should work from practical point of view with out too much modification. I just could believe they could be "new" given time scales and production line capacity.

The additional stock will also be in service for 3+years which is very different to GOBLIN with 6 months and weekend closures so only 5 day week and no similar stock available for LO... Hence I can see why LO didn't and it makes a lot of sense.

A pool of go anywhere EMU stock available for short term lease might help with capacity boosts with electrification schemes in general - 319 or 321 (longer term). e.g MML, Cardiff area (i'm assuming LM get 350s and 323s)
 

387star

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so they are going ahead with the 321 extensive refurbishment program in the meantime then?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
RAIL reporting 12x317 and 6x321s.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

will be interesting to see gn painted 317s adding yet further livery variation to the AGA network especially as it is identical bar the blue doors to the finalized AGA livery! although that will doubtless change

oddly no news on the AGA website about the new franchise
 

ainsworth74

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oddly no news on the AGA website about the new franchise

Don't think that that's particularly unusual. Mostly this sort of thing is dealt with on the corporate website. TPE's website didn't have much to say about the new franchise for example!
 
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Don't think that that's particularly unusual. Mostly this sort of thing is dealt with on the corporate website. TPE's website didn't have much to say about the new franchise for example!

The reality is that the majority of people visiting the actual website will be infrequent travelers looking to book tickets for whom the nitty gritty of a new franchise bears little interest.
 

HH

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The reality is that the website belongs to the old company. The new franchise will be run by a new company. :)
 

samuelmorris

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317 and 321 transfer from Great Northern I'm fairly pleased about - there's clearly still pressing need for additional rolling stock so it's good to see they've taken that opportunity. One does wonder why they aren't taking all of them - presumably there is only room for so many units in the existing stabling facilities, but 18 extra units is certainly welcome - I wonder whether, given considerably more 317s than 321s, if there will be an increase in the number of 317s used on the GE side as a result of this? I wasn't aware of the capacity crisis at WA being particularly severe.

Not sure how I feel about the Renatus project still going ahead - in theory yes great, days like today prove how much less unpleasant summer commuting would be if some of the 321s were air conditioned, but on the other hand, the project already seems heavily delayed, and there is questionable need for it beyond 2019 if the 379s and 360s are also going off-lease, having recently refurbished units sitting idle would be very wasteful indeed...
 

TheBigD

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Any plans to augment the DMU fleet in the short/medium term??? Or will one or both of the loco hauled sets remain until the Stradler Flirt 3 & 4 car bi-modes arrive in about 3-4 years time???
 

Wivenswold

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I guess that in the short term most of those extra units will be cover for 321's going off to Doncaster for refurb. Then hopefully to increase capacity from May 2017.

I'll be delighted if the Clacton branch gets 317s. As it's once of the few places under the wires in East Anglia that's not seen them in regular service and it will provide me with a bit more variety before we're a one stock line in 2020.
 

F Great Eastern

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Backing up my post on the day of announcement of the award, that this franchise will fail, Rail Business has reported that Abellio will need 15% compound annual revenue growth every year!

For a regular TOC with no changes, getting 5% annual revenue growth is challenging enough. With brexit, who knows!

Indeed and when they are replacing every single coach of rolling stock as well any delay or common issue with any of the new trains is going to heap further pressure on them, the whole thing is way too ambitious on many fronts and could cripple them.

I stated at the start pretty much the same as you, they've promised the sun the moon and the stars and honestly I can't see them delivering what they say they will, it's quite reckless in a way, complete lack of discipline to the bidding process are words that I have heard being used in relation to it.

As I said, I really hope that they surprise me and pull it off, but it seems that they've been far too ambitious whereas NXEA were far too reserved in their own bid, a middle ground approach would have suited better.

Maybe someone likes round numbers? The Temporary stock will take us up to exactly 100 321s! That's another 80 carriages to work out where they are going to be cascaded to.
 
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northwichcat

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That confirms the Stadler trains will be built in Switzerland, with people having suggested them being built in other countries earlier on in the thread.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
As I said, I really hope that they surprise me and pull it off, but it seems that they've been far too ambitious whereas NXEA were far too reserved in their own bid, a middle ground approach would have suited better.

For Scotrail Abellio originally won with a bid proposing to release all the 170s and securing HSTs alongside new EMUs as 170 replacement before Transport Scotland did some revisions. However, NX with a more ambitious plan including new loco-hauled stock lost out. It goes to show ambition is seen as more important for some franchises than others.
 

HH

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For Scotrail Abellio originally won with a bid proposing to release all the 170s and securing HSTs alongside new EMUs as 170 replacement before Transport Scotland did some revisions. However, NX with a more ambitious plan including new loco-hauled stock lost out. It goes to show ambition is seen as more important for some franchises than others.

No, it goes to show that TS got the bidder they wanted to win. :lol:
 
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