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2020 US Presidential Election

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Domh245

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But the profligate use of plastics is increasingly coming under fire as the microfibres of clothing and cheap wrapping materials is increasingly being found in food chains, of which we are a dependant species.

That's an argument more for sensible use of plastics (or rather, not putting plastics into everything just because you can) than an argument against plastic at all.

It's a bit like Diesel engines, they're brilliant and have their place but that place is tractors and heavy machinery, not city cars. Plastic has it's places, but it isn't fast food packaging or clothes
 
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AM9

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That's an argument more for sensible use of plastics (or rather, not putting plastics into everything just because you can) than an argument against plastic at all.

It's a bit like Diesel engines, they're brilliant and have their place but that place is tractors and heavy machinery, not city cars. Plastic has it's places, but it isn't fast food packaging or clothes
It's an argument for not using them for a lot of things. That doesn't mean that the same amount of oil will be used to make more of of the less harmful products. There would likely be lower production levels once we stop looking for new things to do with the amount of oil that could be pumped.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Just saw a piece on the BBC saying that Texas is still for Trump by about four points anyway. So it may be that Biden is cementing his base in other states rather than taking a gamble on losing those votes elsewhere.

I don't think Texas is a particularly key state to a Biden victory. It was a solid Republican state that has shifted significantly and now looks like the Dems have an outside chance of taking it, but only if they do a little better than expected. If the polls are anything like accurate then Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all looking like very likely Democrat gains, and those by themselves will give Biden a comfortable victory. Florida and Ohio are currently looking too close to call, and if they flip too, Biden has a huge lead in the electoral college. Only if the swing is bigger than that are you looking at the likelihood of Texas flipping to the Democrats - but, by that point, Biden has already won very comfortably.

Where Texas may be more important is that there's a Senate seat up for election there, and if the Democrats can take that (I'd expect that's still a bit of an outside chance, but possible) it makes it much more likely that they'll get control of the Senate too.
 

nlogax

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I don't think Texas is a particularly key state to a Biden victory.

You're right, it isn't - his road to the White House doesn't require a Texas victory but it'd sure make any victory move into landslide territory. In reality there are bellweather counties in Florida and Pennsylvania which will be gaining much of the attention on election day. Everyone will be focusing on the true swing states.

Do we think the race is going to tighten up between now and Nov 3rd? Pundits appear to be split on the likelihood of this. Assuming that Biden continues his steady campaign and doesn't come out with a last minute gaffe, it's all down to Trump. Either he'll (again) say something completely ridiculous and confirm everyone's opinions of him - or he'll magic up a 2020 version of the Comey Letter with the support of AG Barr.

Either way, many people have already made up their minds. Early votes will soon approach 50% of 2016's entire turnout which is pretty hard to fathom.
 

najaB

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...or he'll magic up a 2020 version of the Comey Letter with the support of AG Barr
They tried. That's what the Hunter Biden laptop was supposed to be.

But somehow the idea that a man who lived in California took his laptop to a repair shop in Delaware, owned by a legally blind man who definitely knew that it was Hunter (but whose CCTV images of the day have been erased) and then forgot to collect it didn't really have quite the same impact.
 

Bayum

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I’m far too involved in all of this. If Trump wins, I’m going to be devastated. Literally devastated.
 

nlogax

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They tried. That's what the Hunter Biden laptop was supposed to be.

There's still time for something to come of it even though the entire thing is ridiculous. Trump's been pressuring Barr to start an official investigation into it. Comey's letter was published soon after the final presidential debate, eleven days before the 2016 election. We're now at nine days before the 2020 election - if an 'official' surprise is coming, it would need to be now in order to benefit Trump's campaign.
 
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37424

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Guardian says UK will wait for US election before deciding in EU trade deal
Senior figures in European governments believe Boris Johnson is waiting for the result of the US presidential election before finally deciding whether to risk plunging the UK into a no-deal Brexit, according to a former British ambassador to the EU.

According to an article above whether Johnson signs a trade deal with the EU is dependent on who win's the Presidential Election, which on the one hand I think is outrageous, but when I read it I wasn't surprised at all, as it panders to the dream of many right wing Brexiteers, I have been sort of thinking that myself for a while, trouble is I have this nagging doubt that Biden will win and Trump will somehow pull it off, I find the prospect of another 4 years of Trump very scary and the fact he doesn't have to worry about being re-elected again means he will probably be even worse, that's if he doesn't find some way of changing the constitution to serve 3 terms I wouldn't put anything past him.
 
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Typhoon

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Of course he did, she is a woman. And Trump likes women, he only just said so the other day.

It's from the same book of bull that he says women now like him because he improved their dishwashers.
I think Trump's comment lacks the word 'some' after 'likes'.

I acquired the book 'Fire and Fury' by Michael Wolff for free during the lockdown. Now, it does take a certain viewpoint throughout, but some of the quotes are, nevertheless, interesting:
"Women, according to Trump, were simply more loyal and trustworthy than men."

"Women, by their very nature, or Trump's version of their nature, were more likely to focus their purpose on a man. A man like Trump."

"He felt women understood him. Or, the kind of women he liked - positive outlook, can do, loyal women, who also looked good - understood him."

"He needed special - extra-special - handling. Women, he explained to one friend with something like self awareness, got this more precisely than me. In particular, women who self selected themselves as tolerant or oblivious to or amused by or steeled against his casual misogyny and constant sexual subtext - which was somehow, incongruously and often jarringly, matched with paternal regard - got this."

Now this view is not an outlier from those of others (and in some way reflects statements he has made about his own daughter). What has this got to do with the Presidential Election? I would rather officials be selected on ability personally and, given the fury that was directed towards Evangelist preachers who strayed, am surprised that more Americans don't look down at his selection of 'Stepford Wives' - and the dismissal of those that do not fit that bill.
 

najaB

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To those points (in reverse order):
that's if he doesn't find some way of changing the constitution to serve 3 terms I wouldn't put anything past him
That's not going to happen. I don't often say things are impossible but this is one time the word is appropriate. A constitutional amendment has to be approved by two thirds of State legislatures which, in a second Trump term, just isn't going to happen. Consider that something as apolitical as the Equal Rights Amendment (which, in a nutshell, says that women have the same rights as men) took from 1923 to 1971 to even be approved by Congress and is still (almost fifty years later) five states short of being ratified (five states previously ratified it and then withdrew their ratification). Getting an amendment through in just four years? Not going to happen.
I find the prospect of another 4 years of Trump very scary and the fact he doesn't have to worry about being re-elected again means he will probably be even worse...
He doesn't have to worry about it, but the GOP does. Many prominent Republicans are already starting to put daylight between themselves and Trump, and this is only likely to continue during a putative second term.
I have been sort of thinking that myself for a while, trouble is I have this nagging doubt that Biden will win and Trump will somehow pull it off
There's no way that Trump wins in a fair election. There are ways that the GOP could manage to arrange a Trump victory, but see above about wanting to remaining in power. If they blatantly steal the election in the "lame duck" session then they are booking a one-way ticket to the electoral wilderness, especially considering that the down-ticket races are increasingly favouring the Democrats.
 

brad465

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The petrochemical industry won't disappear even if the world stops burning oil, in fact that might even prolong its existence. Oil is used in the production of many materials that will still be needed, most obviously things like plastics and bitumen. Arguably a future world may criticise our era for "wasting" oil by burning it as fuel, rather than using it efficiently and retaining a resource for the future.
I've been thinking that for a while. Quite apart from the important environmental reasons we should stop burning so much of this stuff as fuel when we are either already or will soon be able to replace it with other more sustainable fuel sources when we may well need it for other uses for which we don't yet have alternatives!
Another reason for reducing oil dependency that doesn't get the coverage it needs is we stop depending on the cartel that is OPEC, including all its immoral authoritarian regimes and associates like Russia.


There's still time for something to come of it even though the entire thing is ridiculous. Trump's been pressuring Barr to start an official investigation into it. Comey's letter was published soon after the final presidential debate, eleven days before the 2016 election. We're now at nine days before the 2020 election - if an 'official' surprise is coming, it would need to be now in order to benefit Trump's campaign.
I know the US isn't us and this isn't the same sort of scandal/leak, but when the trade talk papers for a prospective US trade deal were leaked online and found by Corbyn, it hardly did anything to the opinion polling that was relatively accurate in getting the result last year, despite the fact Johnson and co. then going to say we have to find the culprit in this leak meant they technically conceded to the papers being legitimate.
 

GRALISTAIR

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That's an argument more for sensible use of plastics (or rather, not putting plastics into everything just because you can) than an argument against plastic at all.

It's a bit like Diesel engines, they're brilliant and have their place but that place is tractors and heavy machinery, not city cars. Plastic has it's places, but it isn't fast food packaging or clothes
Indeed. I am almost tempted to start this in its own thread. I have already seen some trend in the USA but not sure it is tied to this election cycle. Wooden sticks are replacing plastic for stirring drinks in many places. In fact I thought Trump had made a disparaging remark about them.

But please don’t ban plastics/polymers they are just way too useful.
 

Domh245

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Indeed. I am almost tempted to start this in its own thread. I have already seen some trend in the USA but not sure it is tied to this election cycle. Wooden sticks are replacing plastic for stirring drinks in many places. In fact I thought Trump had made a disparaging remark about them.

A new thread is probably a good idea as it's a very interesting topic with plenty of scope for discussion!
 

GRALISTAIR

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I've been thinking that for a while. Quite apart from the important environmental reasons we should stop burning so much of this stuff as fuel when we are either already or will soon be able to replace it with other more sustainable fuel sources when we may well need it for other uses for which we don't yet have alternatives!
It is fairly easily replaceable in cars and trains and even ships so save it for planes and producing other useful chemicals/polymers in the interim.
 

nlogax

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We all need to remember where national tracking polls were nine days before the 2016 election. The NY Times index was what I was glued to.

NY Times 2016 Election Predictor - Oct 27th 2016 - Clinton 92% likelihood of becoming president, Trump at 8%

Pollsters have changed their models to take into account what happened then, but until Biden physically has his hands on an inauguration bible I refuse to take anything for granted. Anyone doing otherwise is foolish.
 

najaB

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...but until Biden physically has his hands on an inauguration bible I refuse to take anything for granted. Anyone doing otherwise is foolish.
The thing is, the pollsters were just about spot on as far as the actual popular vote was concerned. What polls couldn't predict was exactly how the vote would break down on a per-precinct basis. I think I read/saw somewhere recently that the Electoral College was swayed by 0.09% of the total number of votes cast, just unfortunately they were in the right (for Trump) voting districts.

So yes, don't count your chickens until their hatched, but the fact that over 40 million votes have already been cast means that any late-breaking news is going to have much less of an effect than the Comey announcement did.
 

Domh245

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What polls couldn't predict was exactly how the vote would break down on a per-precinct basis.

Sites like 538 and others attempt to control for that though and come up with likelihoods of wins for each. Even on polling day they estimated a 70%+ chance of Hillary winning. They reckoned near 80% chances of her winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all states that (closely) went Trump last time around. For context, 538 currently reckons an 87% chance of Biden winning

Besides, aren't most states simply majority in the state wins the EC votes? Breaking results down to a precinct level doesn't really matter?
 

najaB

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Besides, aren't most states simply majority in the state wins the EC votes? Breaking results down to a precinct level doesn't really matter?
Yes, but if the polls had probed more deeply - which a precinct-by-precinct level poll would have necessitated - then it would have been a lot clearer how close the election really was. There were areas that were just assumed to be voting Democrat where the numbers just didn't come out.
 

nlogax

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Sites like 538 and others attempt to control for that though and come up with likelihoods of wins for each.

Fivethirtyeight is my daily go-to for polling news. They seem to focus a lot of time in their podcasts helping people understand how their methodology has been tweaked since last time. Even then.. nope, I take it with several pinches of salt. Let's see what the cold light of day on November 4th brings.
 

birchesgreen

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We all need to remember where national tracking polls were nine days before the 2016 election. The NY Times index was what I was glued to.

View attachment 85052

Pollsters have changed their models to take into account what happened then, but until Biden physically has his hands on an inauguration bible I refuse to take anything for granted. Anyone doing otherwise is foolish.

Sorry, what does this show?
 

nlogax

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SouthEastBuses

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A couple of nights ago, I watched part of the first US presidential debate, and I was quite surprised to hear that as a consequence of BLM protests, that Biden and the Democrats want to remove the police in the USA!
 

SouthEastBuses

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I can see why you would be considering that that isn't a policy of theirs...

True point there. And now I'm watching the Climate change part - and Trump claims that the USA is very carbon neutral despite the fact he has REFUSED to sign the Paris agreement! What an idiot that guy
 

najaB

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I can see why you would be considering that that isn't a policy of theirs...
Indeed. Some on the Left (not including Biden) want to defund the police which, despite the scary sounding name, simply means taking much of the money that currently goes to the police departments and reallocating it to other services. As an example, New York spends more on Policing than it does on education, skills training, mental health services and drug rehab combined. The idea behind defunding the police is that spending more money on crime prevention means that they save a lot more money that's currently spent on crime fighting.
 

SouthEastBuses

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And Trump is in favour of electric cars etc. - so if he is in favour of sustainable transport then why did he not sign the Paris agreement in the first place?
 

SouthEastBuses

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Indeed. Some on the Left (not including Biden) want to defund the police which, despite the scary sounding name, simply means taking much of the money that currently goes to the police departments and reallocating it to other services. As an example, New York spends more on Policing than it does on education, skills training, mental health services and drug rehab combined. The idea behind defunding the police is that spending more money on crime prevention means that they save a lot more money that's currently spent on crime fighting.

Yep, and that would be an utterly stupid idea. Especially considering from a country that suffers from a very high crime rate thanks to how easy it is to buy a gun there.
 
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