Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
That would be another deviation from the vaccination mission which was at the outset to reduce to mortality rates and relieve pressure on the NHS by administering 1st dose to cohorts 1-4. They've achieved that although its difficult to tell still whether that's down to NPI or the vaccine. The problem is the only outcome they mentioned from this campaign was it would reduce deaths by 88% in that group at what point wasn't stated conveniently and the data certainly isn't underpinning it yet.I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the measures that is a marker for when a certain group of restrictions is eased is the number of people immunised (first dose and/or second dose). Herd immunity, and therefore protection for the most vulnerable who are unable to have a vaccine, will rely on high levels of vaccine uptake. That is happening now, but could potentially wane as the programme moves to the younger, less vulnerable sections of society. He could, for example, say that hospitality won’t be allowed to open until (say) 30 million people have had both doses. “Jabs for Pubs” for example.
Anyhow all i want next week is a restatement of what there goal is here ie is it zero covid or some level of tolerance that is deemed to be containable by the NHS. Each level of relaxation needs to set out what impact it brings on R number, case levels etc and what the associated thresholds that need to be satisfied and for how long before we can move to the next level ie cases below x for x days et al.
Im not interested in dates on Monday not even speculation for what might be I want it managed dynamically on a daily basis not some fixed interval period. People will say business can't operate like that well they will just have to on this occasion this is a one off situation and as long we are headed to better times then then they will have the certainty to plan for that.