Are we expecting all train companies to revert to the full March 2020 timetable by December?

[Jamesrob637]

In the week ending 14 May (the latest week for which he DfT has published the data), car traffic on roads was at about 88% of pre-COVID levels, compared to National Rail passengers being at about 40% and the Tube being at 36%. Obviously this doesn’t split out commuting from leisure travel and there will be local variations, but it does suggest overall car travel is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

It'll be interesting to see what this previous week was like. That week you mention was the final week of what I call "semi-normality", with the week just gone being around "three-quarters normality".

 

[HST274]

I do a daily commute along the m5. In normal times the m42 junction is bursting going onto the m42 and there is a lot of traffic coming onto the m5 whe I join in but for ages now the roads have been almost empty, thought its been picking up lately.

 

[asw22]

A few main issues here;
Quite a lot of people are either on furlough (11m) or unemployed (1 in 20 of working age population).

Cumulative jobs on furlough UK 2021 | Statista

As of November 21, 2021, approximately 11.7 million jobs, from 1.3 million different employers were furloughed in the United Kingdom as part of the government's job retention scheme.

www.statista.com

Unemployment: Who are the millions of Britons not working?

The unemployment rate is close to its lowest point since the 1970s, but millions aren't working.

www.bbc.co.uk

Add in sectors moving some of their operations out of London

Brexit’s tab as banks leave for Europe: $1.2 trillion and counting

At least 440 banks and financial services firms are partly relocating from London to European cities.

qz.com

Public transport fears have caused people to invest thousands in a new car so would these switch to train?

The potential range of new variants could mean further lockdowns - in July 2020 would we have thought that another lockdown would be in place 6 months later?

So it may be unlikely for Dec 2019 timetables to come back in Dec 2021. However if the effects of the variants are not too bad and vaccination reaches over 90% of the UK population, then May 2022 may see more frequent timetables hopefully.

 

[philosopher]

Judging by the numbers of people who claim they "intend" to work from home on Fridays and Mondays, I think there's going to be some rude awakenings, likewise for those who seem to think being on the roads on the way to their newly extended weekend break will count as working from home!

Some may choose to work at the office on Fridays so they can go for Friday night drinks with colleagues. Plus working at the office on Mondays and Fridays for some may help separate the weekend from the working week.

 

[name_required]

Quite a lot of people are either on furlough (11m) or unemployed (1 in 20 of working age population).

While 11 million jobs have been furloughed at some point since the scheme started last year, the number on furlough now will be much lower. The latest published furlough data are for 31 March and show 4 million jobs furloughed, but that was before non-essential retail or any hospitality re-opened, so it will have fallen much further since then. For example there were 820,000 retail jobs on furlough on 31 March because many shops were closed, but almost all those shops are now open.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...us-job-retention-scheme-statistics-6-may-2021

 

[jon0844]

As businesses downside and people hot desk more, I expect staff will be rostered so that you can't just have Monday and Friday off. Offices will need to be used in a smarter way going forward.

While there will always be some people working from home that make themselves virtually disappear, many more will be more productive and potentially work longer hours (without overtime) at home, so businesses may find productivity goes down if they come back to work!

 

[Bald Rick]

As businesses downside and people hot desk more, I expect staff will be rostered so that you can't just have Monday and Friday off. Offices will need to be used in a smarter way going forward.

Yep our office is going to move to rostering teams in on different days of the week. I confidently predict that system will be abandoned before the year is out.

In any event I’ll be going in Fridays and probably Mondays too.

 

[Jamesrob637]

While 11 million jobs have been furloughed at some point since the scheme started last year, the number on furlough now will be much lower. The latest published furlough data are for 31 March and show 4 million jobs furloughed, but that was before non-essential retail or any hospitality re-opened, so it will have fallen much further since then. For example there were 820,000 retail jobs on furlough on 31 March because many shops were closed, but almost all those shops are now open.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...us-job-retention-scheme-statistics-6-may-2021

The reopening of hospitality put 2-3 million back in active work over last month and this. It was almost the equivalent of every person in the West Midlands or Greater Manchester going back to active work.

 

[jon0844]

Yep our office is going to move to rostering teams in on different days of the week. I confidently predict that system will be abandoned before the year is out.

In any event I’ll be going in Fridays and probably Mondays too.

I guess there's no one-size-fits-all approach and different businesses will work out what's best for them, and their staff.

I can see some businesses allowing staff to work from home as much as possible, but requiring them come in for meetings/brain storming and to socialise (any business that doesn't do this risks staff becoming isolated and detached, and perhaps leaving as a result - plus productivity going down. Another factor is how people will eventually become separated from their colleagues, especially when people change jobs and you've potentially never met someone you 'work with').

Meetings are much better in person than on Zoom. We've said for years that fast Internet would make everyone work from home; well, now we've been able to try it. It works for a lot of things, but it's not the same when you can't meet up and chat before and after a meeting, or even have quiet chats during a meeting!

Perhaps those against HS2 because we didn't need a new railway line as we'd all work from home is now proven to be needed after all. Not everyone wants to work from home or spend hours on video conferences!

What will make sense is to allow staff to be more flexible on working hours, which might mean the traditional peak periods never return.. but a lot of businesses may not want to do that as some jobs need people to work set hours, so coming in at 6am to go at midday (or whatever) won't really suit the business.

 

[Failed Unit]

Be interesting to see how things go. On my local patch of Great Northern numbers are low but growing.

many trains taken out for the peak timetable- but they would have gone anyway with kings cross work. (No idea how the line would have coped without COVID)

i hope to see the old timetable before Christmas but they may not but in all the peaks. (London - Welwyn GC, Baldock may not return or be merged)

 

[bramling]

Be interesting to see how things go. On my local patch of Great Northern numbers are low but growing.

many trains taken out for the peak timetable- but they would have gone anyway with kings cross work. (No idea how the line would have coped without COVID)

i hope to see the old timetable before Christmas but they may not but in all the peaks. (London - Welwyn GC, Baldock may not return or be merged)

I seem to remember there is some kind of plan for some degree of uplift on GN in September. I wouldn't expect this to be the Welwyn-KX services, but presumably we may see something more akin to last December - a bit of 12-car working, plus perhaps some more peak Peterborough and some Baldock services. Won't be much though, it takes the 387 requirement to something like 35, though I can't remember if this is fleet size or daily diagrams. No doubt there's an element of fluidity to this.

Of course, what we really want is mass return to the office ASAP so they have to bring the 365s back.

 

[TravelDream]

Roads are definitely a lot busier around here compared to a month or two ago, but they aren't yet as busy as pre-Covid. Trains are still running on a 50% schedule which is a bit annoying.

Judging by the numbers of people who claim they "intend" to work from home on Fridays and Mondays, I think there's going to be some rude awakenings, likewise for those who seem to think being on the roads on the way to their newly extended weekend break will count as working from home!

I think things are quite fluid with that. Last summer with my company, the feeling was that some would work from home permanently whilst others would be back in the office part-time. Now things are turning towards being in the office more and more. Most of my team are back in at least part-time now, though I am still home-working.
We were actually discussing Mondays and Fridays the other day. The feeling is senior management is going to make Mondays a work from the office day for exactly those reasons. To be fair, some people have been taking the proverbial with it.

 

[asw22]

While 11 million jobs have been furloughed at some point since the scheme started last year, the number on furlough now will be much lower. The latest published furlough data are for 31 March and show 4 million jobs furloughed, but that was before non-essential retail or any hospitality re-opened, so it will have fallen much further since then. For example there were 820,000 retail jobs on furlough on 31 March because many shops were closed, but almost all those shops are now open.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...us-job-retention-scheme-statistics-6-may-2021

Thank you, this data source is what I was looking for but couldn't find - it will be interesting to see what the data looks like when
"The next release will be published on 3 June 2021."

 

[Bikeman78]

The increase in traffic round my way has been very conspicuous ... however many places which would previously have been jammed at times like 1700 still aren’t even close to it.

A lot of the traffic we’re seeing is clearly leisure related, which is quite curious seeing as there shouldn’t now be *that* many people off work completely, even if many are still not back to the office.

I do tend to agree that there is going to be a bit more of a return to the office than some are predicting. “I want to continue working from home” doesn’t mean it will happen in many cases.

Stratford is getting rather cosy again in the evening peak. Even the 321s are filling up again. It won't be long before they have to make some of them 12 car again, assuming they have any units left to do that. If RTT is to be believed then the service will ramp up again in September.

 

[Robertj21a]

In this part of Hertfordshire traffic is back to normal. Same queues at the same times in the same places.

Yesterday on the strategic road Network was horrendous. M1 was jammed for most of the way from Luton to Northampton from around midday, M25 was solid from the A1 to the A3 anti-clockwise and almost the same clockwise from around 1500. Clearly being the first Friday where you are officially allowed to go away and stay has been a big part of that.

I also know a fair few people take time off this week and/or next to go away, as they now can. So I’m not surprised the traffic is as it is.

Surely, the M1 is very busy anyway at present from north of Luton to Northampton because the major road works along the whole stretch, causing 50mph limits?

 

[bramling]

Surely, the M1 is very busy anyway at present from north of Luton to Northampton because the major road works along the whole stretch, causing 50mph limits?

The more interesting question is what these roads are currently like in the traditional peak hours. If it's anything like my recent experiences, quite a bit emptier than normal still.

Everything seems to be about leisure at the moment.

 

[ChrisC]

The more interesting question is what these roads are currently like in the traditional peak hours. If it's anything like my recent experiences, quite a bit emptier than normal still.

Everything seems to be about leisure at the moment.

Here in Nottinghamshire the traditional peak hours are getting busier but nothing like normal. I haven’t been into the City of Nottingham but certainly in the county it seems to be all about leisure. If there is a busier time now it seems to be from around 10.30am when everyone is going to the retail parks and large garden centres. Also, despite the weather, country parks, forestry commission car parks and other popular walking locations become very busy from mid morning with cars parked in every available space. Schools staggering their opening hours seems to have resulted in many locations being very busy for a large part of the afternoon. I’ve found the busiest time of all, when I have been stuck in queues of traffic have been Sunday lunchtimes.

Public transport still seems very quiet and most buses I have seen only seem to have a handful of passengers on them. The Nottingham Tram is reporting passenger figures as still only being around 30% of normal. The few trains I have used on the Robin Hood Line have been very quiet, although EMR have resumed a full timetable from this week. The usually overflowing large Park and Ride car park for tram and train at Hucknall station was less than a quarter full when I used it mid morning last week. Pre Covid there were no spaces to be found after about 8.30am.

 

[Bald Rick]

Surely, the M1 is very busy anyway at present from north of Luton to Northampton because the major road works along the whole stretch, causing 50mph limits?

Oh it’s busy, but not like last night. Took my Mrs an extra hour to do that stretch compared to normal.

 

[Urban-Savage]

Am rather hoping the Liverpool Wigan NW Stopper increases its frequency - once an hour for a major city and suburbs is rather woeful for the stations that are not served by the Blackpool Fast. Services getting very busy again

 

[dk1]

WFH on Mondays and Fridays was becoming popular even pre-COVID!

So very true. I always checked Manningtree station car park. Many on spaces Mondays, full or almost full Tuesday to Thursday, then plenty of spaces on Fridays. I’d say it’s been like that for the last 5-7 years if not longer.

 

[323235]

Fair enough. Just a bit surprising, as I've been off work for three weeks and have done precisely nothing, mainly thanks to the current run of dire weather. I suppose I sometimes forget that not everyone is as outdoor-oriented as we are.

I've been on a few cycle rides in the rain in the last few weeks, doesn't put me off and I quite enjoy a bit of rain - singing along and dancing to music.

 

[bramling]

I've been on a few cycle rides in the rain in the last few weeks, doesn't put me off and I quite enjoy a bit of rain - singing along and dancing to music.

The thing which puts me off is that I like to have the camera with me when going places, and rain isn’t really conducive to that.

We’ve done some local walks essentially for exercise purposes in the rain, but doing the same walks so many times over the last 15 months I am bursting to do different stuff. But I’m reluctant to drive somewhere if I won’t be able to enjoy the location properly.

 

[HowardGWR]

In the week ending 14 May (the latest week for which he DfT has published the data), car traffic on roads was at about 88% of pre-COVID levels, compared to National Rail passengers being at about 40% and the Tube being at 36%. Obviously this doesn’t split out commuting from leisure travel and there will be local variations, but it does suggest overall car travel is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

If people are working at home, they won't be travelling as commuters either, whether by car or bus or train, so it is not surprising that car traffic is reduced somewhat.

 

[Andyh82]

Some may choose to work at the office on Fridays so they can go for Friday night drinks with colleagues. Plus working at the office on Mondays and Fridays for some may help separate the weekend from the working week.

Where I work, the business, not the member of staff, is deciding what days are going to be in the office and which days will continue to be WFH

The reasoning being it’s worse and harder to have meetings having half the team in the office and half at home, than it is to be entirely at home.

 

[Eloise]

So very true. I always checked Manningtree station car park. Many on spaces Mondays, full or almost full Tuesday to Thursday, then plenty of spaces on Fridays. I’d say it’s been like that for the last 5-7 years if not longer.

At my local station the car park was usually 80% full with space for maybe 300 all in. During the pandemic I have been the first car there at 07:00 and the last car at 16:30. The last time I parked it was super-busy, six cars.

Mr Eloise and me have been discussing what to do. We did car share but he is working from home and is happy, and highly likely, to be doing do it after which kills our (cheaper) car sharing pass. On asking about car park season tickets at the station there was a three year waiting list for a space pre-COVID. Now it's "how many do you want?".

 

[Need2]

I just find it amazing how reasonably busy the trains I drive were this weekend and lately, out of peak hours.
Appears to me that a lot of people find it totally safe to ‘do’ leisure but too damned lazy to go to work.
I feel a rude awakening for quite a few, very soon!

 

[bramling]

I just find it amazing how reasonably busy the trains I drive were this weekend and lately, out of peak hours.
Appears to me that a lot of people find it totally safe to ‘do’ leisure but too damned lazy to go to work.
I feel a rude awakening for quite a few, very soon!

This is exactly my feeling. I’m sick of people willing this to continue simply so they can continue their current lifestyle.

 

[Bow Fell]

Am rather hoping the Liverpool Wigan NW Stopper increases its frequency - once an hour for a major city and suburbs is rather woeful for the stations that are not served by the Blackpool Fast. Services getting very busy again

Agreed;

Lime Street losing 2tph towards Huyton, and 1tph on the St Helens Central and Rainhill sections, will have a major impact eventually.

The Warrington Bank Quay removal is no major loss, except to intermediate stations

But I think the loss of one of the stoppers to Wigan NW will have a big impact as numbers start to increase.

On another note, of some of the trains I saw at the weekend, you’d be forgiven for thinking anything had happened over the last 15 months, I’d say there were a few services at ‘normal loading’ if not 80-90%

 

[Hadders]

Surely, the M1 is very busy anyway at present from north of Luton to Northampton because the major road works along the whole stretch, causing 50mph limits?

The delay on this stretch is pretty minimal as 3 lanes are maintained throughout and the speed limit is now 60mph.

Oh it’s busy, but not like last night. Took my Mrs an extra hour to do that stretch compared to normal.

I got caught in this on Friday both ways, it was not good. Northbound on Friday lunchtime on my way to DIRFT there was a 90 minute delay. On the way home late afternoon it was stop start and then to add insult to injury the A602 between Hitchin and Stevenage was at a complete standstill.

 

[snookertam]

I expect there will be a clamour for ScotRail daytime frequencies to be restored by around August. I would imagine they will be working to such a plan. Regular driver refresher training is taking place I believe.