I've mainly been following this from holiday in Spain and the mists seems to be clearing slightly now.
In Wycombe Carousel is taking over everything operated from Wycombe depot and returning largely to the structure existing before the Arriva changes last summer. We will have to 30 to Downley and 31 to Penn which look like they will interwork (as the Arriva 10 and 11 do now).
The 32 will replace the Arriva 2 and 12 but at the same frequency of every 20 minutes. Looks like they will run as now, as the Arriva 2/12 continue to interwork, but it will enable through journeys which are not possible at the moment. It also looks like they intend to work the 32 with 5 vehicles as against 6 now on the 2/12. I suspect resilience and the effect of delays will be worse as there is less flexibility to adjust and less layover time.
The 33 will replace the Arriva 3 and 13 and link to provide a through service as previously. The frequency to Totteridge will be increased from every 20 minutes to every 15 minutes. At present Arriva run 2 buses on each service (3 and 13), there will be 4 on the combined 33 with a frequency increase - again there will be less resilience.
It looks like the Bourne End services 36 & 37 will be as Arriva 6 & 7 at present with 2 buses an hour, a reduction from before the co-ordination on this corridor, which is a shame. The 800/850 look virtually unchanged. Since the latest timetable change both of these groups of services are more self contained. Little change here.
Aylesbury is more interesting. I agree that the base option for the 130 is for two journeys each hour to be diverted through Naphill to cover the Arriva X9. I took a 130 only a couple of weeks ago between Princes Risborough and Aylesbury and even that arrived early, I do think Arriva running time is very padded now. It takes about 10 minutes longer via Naphill so it would add at least one bus, assuming one bus goes via Naphill southbound and the next one goes via Naphill northbound, but departure times from Wycombe will then appear rather odd. I also suspect this would be insufficient at peak times, Redline only run every 20 minutes roughly at the moment with smaller vehicles and the loadings for both services are not bad plus some decent school traffic, I can see a further increase being justified / needed if Redline can resource it. Arriva's timetables again had more resilience built in, how will Redline manage when there are unusual traffic delays?
On the Oxford corridor, if the X20 is diverted via Haddenham that takes us to a half hourly service throughout which is what there used to be historically. That does not go via Wheatley but it looks like Oxford's 280 will cover this as far as Thame. I doubt if there is much demand from Wheatley to east of Thame. The 120 is only one journey a day so that doesn't come into it. Is anyone going to add any more here? I doubt it.
What will Arriva do with the buses released? I am sure most of these will be welcomed within the south east to help with the vehicle position. A lot of vehicles are getting to the end of their lives over the next few years and anything to reduce the pressure will be useful. The 12-plate Citaros are more interesting as they have some years left in them but are not so common within the group - there are just two at Tunbridge Wells and others at Tamworth where most of them started life. They do seem about the most reliable of the Wycombe fleet, but that's not saying much.
It seems bizarre that they have resuscitated 3580, an 09-plate E300 at Wycombe, totally non-standard - I saw this yesterday (tracking as 3013) but not sure where it is today. This can go back to Hertfordshire somewhere. Also 2982 has been off the road for 3 months, returned for one day then came out again this morning but seems to have been back in the depot by 7am. Meanwhile 4212 was still sitting in the yard when I last looked a couple of weeks ago.
I can't say where Go Ahead will get the buses it needs but it does seem to have some from its previous rescue operations on the south coast. These may be little more reliable than the Arriva ones they replace! Staff - to be seen but I guess many Arriva ones will move over. Depot capacity - I don't know either. I don't think the Carousel timetables will have the resilience needed for High Wycombe's unpredictable traffic, especially the 32 and 33, I hope they have spare buses and drivers on standby at the bus station in busy times.
I know you should be careful what you wish for but I see this as positive. Arriva have had the smell of death for so long. I think the Wycombe network recast last summer could and should have worked but they failed to provide the vehicle resources to enable it to do so and passengers have deserted it. But of course I don't have access to the financials - maybe it was just too much of a basket case. It would have been good to see what had happened if it had worked reliably.
In Wycombe Carousel is taking over everything operated from Wycombe depot and returning largely to the structure existing before the Arriva changes last summer. We will have to 30 to Downley and 31 to Penn which look like they will interwork (as the Arriva 10 and 11 do now).
The 32 will replace the Arriva 2 and 12 but at the same frequency of every 20 minutes. Looks like they will run as now, as the Arriva 2/12 continue to interwork, but it will enable through journeys which are not possible at the moment. It also looks like they intend to work the 32 with 5 vehicles as against 6 now on the 2/12. I suspect resilience and the effect of delays will be worse as there is less flexibility to adjust and less layover time.
The 33 will replace the Arriva 3 and 13 and link to provide a through service as previously. The frequency to Totteridge will be increased from every 20 minutes to every 15 minutes. At present Arriva run 2 buses on each service (3 and 13), there will be 4 on the combined 33 with a frequency increase - again there will be less resilience.
It looks like the Bourne End services 36 & 37 will be as Arriva 6 & 7 at present with 2 buses an hour, a reduction from before the co-ordination on this corridor, which is a shame. The 800/850 look virtually unchanged. Since the latest timetable change both of these groups of services are more self contained. Little change here.
Aylesbury is more interesting. I agree that the base option for the 130 is for two journeys each hour to be diverted through Naphill to cover the Arriva X9. I took a 130 only a couple of weeks ago between Princes Risborough and Aylesbury and even that arrived early, I do think Arriva running time is very padded now. It takes about 10 minutes longer via Naphill so it would add at least one bus, assuming one bus goes via Naphill southbound and the next one goes via Naphill northbound, but departure times from Wycombe will then appear rather odd. I also suspect this would be insufficient at peak times, Redline only run every 20 minutes roughly at the moment with smaller vehicles and the loadings for both services are not bad plus some decent school traffic, I can see a further increase being justified / needed if Redline can resource it. Arriva's timetables again had more resilience built in, how will Redline manage when there are unusual traffic delays?
On the Oxford corridor, if the X20 is diverted via Haddenham that takes us to a half hourly service throughout which is what there used to be historically. That does not go via Wheatley but it looks like Oxford's 280 will cover this as far as Thame. I doubt if there is much demand from Wheatley to east of Thame. The 120 is only one journey a day so that doesn't come into it. Is anyone going to add any more here? I doubt it.
What will Arriva do with the buses released? I am sure most of these will be welcomed within the south east to help with the vehicle position. A lot of vehicles are getting to the end of their lives over the next few years and anything to reduce the pressure will be useful. The 12-plate Citaros are more interesting as they have some years left in them but are not so common within the group - there are just two at Tunbridge Wells and others at Tamworth where most of them started life. They do seem about the most reliable of the Wycombe fleet, but that's not saying much.
It seems bizarre that they have resuscitated 3580, an 09-plate E300 at Wycombe, totally non-standard - I saw this yesterday (tracking as 3013) but not sure where it is today. This can go back to Hertfordshire somewhere. Also 2982 has been off the road for 3 months, returned for one day then came out again this morning but seems to have been back in the depot by 7am. Meanwhile 4212 was still sitting in the yard when I last looked a couple of weeks ago.
I can't say where Go Ahead will get the buses it needs but it does seem to have some from its previous rescue operations on the south coast. These may be little more reliable than the Arriva ones they replace! Staff - to be seen but I guess many Arriva ones will move over. Depot capacity - I don't know either. I don't think the Carousel timetables will have the resilience needed for High Wycombe's unpredictable traffic, especially the 32 and 33, I hope they have spare buses and drivers on standby at the bus station in busy times.
I know you should be careful what you wish for but I see this as positive. Arriva have had the smell of death for so long. I think the Wycombe network recast last summer could and should have worked but they failed to provide the vehicle resources to enable it to do so and passengers have deserted it. But of course I don't have access to the financials - maybe it was just too much of a basket case. It would have been good to see what had happened if it had worked reliably.