Brexit matters

[radamfi]

The bit in bold gives you credibility that most people that I have met who have talked about emigrating lack. Its not realistic for working age people to move to the continent without speaking another European language. I don't have much sympathy for people complaining about losing an automatic right to move to a country where they would struggle to string a couple of sentances together!!! Its taking the mick if people haven't bothered to start 4 and half years after the referendum and with loss of FOM three weeks away. I am somewhere between A1 and A2 standard of German but I am realistic that I will never make the effort to become fluent and therefore will never live there (I wouldn't retire there). Its good to be able to know the basics as a tourist but a professional level is a world away from that. I assume there will be howls of outrage when Brits need to have basic language qualifications for visas in some EU countries. Brexit will probably be blamed. A reduction in the number of Brits living abroad that are unable to speak the local language should be welcomed, they are a national embarrassment (and they come from across the political spectrum).

Lots of immigrants get jobs without knowing the local language. In one of my recent jobs, we recruited a Dutch woman for a job in Madrid. I've got English friends who have worked in Rotterdam and Amsterdam. All these jobs involved working with a variety of nationalities so English is the language used in the office. Some people learn the local lingo when abroad, others come back to Britain when the job is over. Obviously low skilled jobs are typically done by immigrants in most developed countries, many of which have barely a grasp of the local language. My pizza in the Netherlands was once delivered by an American student who only knew English.

There are many courses available at European universities taught in English.

 

[najaB]

I am somewhere between A1 and A2 standard of German but I am realistic that I will never make the effort to become fluent and therefore will never live there

It's amazing how much living the language focuses the mind. I know several people who came to the UK with barely any English skills at all who, after six months, are able to have fluent conversations. One guy from Italy is at the point where he's seriously trying to break into standup comedy in English.

 

[Chester1]

Lots of immigrants get jobs without knowing the local language. In one of my recent jobs, we recruited a Dutch woman for a job in Madrid. I've got English friends who have worked in Rotterdam and Amsterdam. All these jobs involved working with a variety of nationalities so English is the language used in the office. Some people learn the local lingo when abroad, others come back to Britain when the job is over. Obviously low skilled jobs are typically done by immigrants in most developed countries, many of which have barely a grasp of the local language. My pizza in the Netherlands was once delivered by an American student who only knew English.

There are many courses available at European universities taught in English.

People who do jobs in English in the EU (outside of Ireland and tourism) have jobs that would normally qualify them for visas. They are professionals working in sectors like IT or finance. If they can't speak their host countries language to a basic level for day to day non work stuff then they are an embarassment to their home country. Most immigrants in most countries turn up with a basic grasp of their host countries langauge. The average Brit complaining about losing their rights doesn't even have that.

It's amazing how much living the language focuses the mind. I know several people who came to the UK with barely any English skills at all who, after six months, are able to have fluent conversations. One guy from Italy is at the point where he's seriously trying to break into standup comedy in English.

I bet "barely any English" means more of any non family language than the vast majority of Brits know. Something like an A1 using the Common European Languages framework, maybe A2. I know a couple of people who have moved to the EU after getting to that level and I really respect them for making the effort and putting their money were their mouth is. Even the spike in immigration since brexit puts people like them at a fraction of 1%. 99% are all talk (in English of course). We will see what happens with Ireland after Brexit but currently (excluding NI) there are more Irish Citizens in UK than there are Brits in Ireland. Thats a country that speaks English, has a strong economy and is a quick flight home.

I don't know you guys in real life, I don't know if you are proactive in taking control of your lives, but most people know who talk about emigrating because of brexit are the sort of people (or litterally are people) who hate their jobs, moan regularly and despite decent prospects choose to stay in them for several years. The people who are proactive and make decisions like emigrating are not the norm. I would be sympathetic to loss of FOM if the bar for third country nationals emigrating to the EU was high (relative to the resources and oportuntities available to the average Brit). People who have the attitude and skills to adapt and thrive in a foreign country will jump through the hoops they need to get there after brexit. Those that can't can still move to Ireland for six years, get Citizenship and move on. If they really hate Britain today and love the EU, 6 years in Ireland shouldn't be hardship.

Edit:


On a different note, the details of todays deal over Northern Ireland are starting to leak. Over 90% of goods from GB will be zero tariff in the event of a no deal brexit. The EU will have a non public facing presence in Northern Ireland to monitor movement of goods. It will be labelled as a sell out or climb down by people who strong views on either side but it does look like a genuine compromise that gives both sides most but not all what they wanted. I doubt the threat to break international law helped, rather the need to have a majority in the Northern Irish Assembly in 4 years time to renew the protocol.

 

[najaB]

I bet "barely any English" means more of any non family language than the vast majority of Brits know.

Maybe so, but again "the vast majority" isn't "all". We already know that most Brits are never going to leave, Brexit or not.

 

[yorksrob]

Personally, I think that both sides are now too entrenched for a deal.

Sad really, because something along the lines of a Canada style deal in goods would probably do a lot to smooth the bump for both sides.

It would also be nearer to what the country voted for in 1974 than either full EU membership or "no deal".

 

[DarloRich]

I still care, I still care a lot. I just don't have the energy for it anymore. Despite it seeming clear to me that Brexit remains the greatest act of national self-harm we have probably ever inflicted on ourselves it is equally clear that for a great many of my fellow citizens either they don't think that that is true or they just don't care as it's less important than some other intangible idea (perhaps around "sovereignty" and "taking back control" or maybe "controlling our borders" or some other thing that in reality we always had control over to a great degree). So what's the point?

The Tory party either by accident or design (or both) appears to have been taken over by the lunatics. The Brexit we are now getting is nothing like the Brexit Vote Leave told us we would get and yet we are assured that people knew what they were voting for and this hardest of Brexit's is therefore the will of the people. The Mail, the Express, et al will no doubt cheer us forward into oblivion whilst blaming those nasty people in Brussels for punishing us "plucky Brits" when it goes wrong. The price of Brexit is probably going to be the end of the country I live in as I'll be surprised if Scotland hasn't gone independent by the end of this decade and I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a unified Ireland either. And yet on we go.

So of course I still care. There just isn't any point in saying anything about it anymore as there's nothing to be done but feeling incredibly sad about it all and watch with continuing horror as our politicians, cheered on by a significant segment of society, continue with their project.

Spot on - close thread. Also: Blue Passports. ffs.

 

[Vespa]

Its what it is, No Deal Brexit is likely to happen, instead we will have to be pragmatic...

At present the EU is trying to keep the UK as close to the EU as if it never left, therefore negotiating from top downward trying to keep everything including fishing, the UK wants to negotiate from ground upward.

If this was a non EU state, ground upward would be how negotiation would have been done as there is nothing lost and everything to be gained.

The EU is also hampered by the demands of individual member states such as France demand maintaining access to an independent country's water as if nothings changed, no other country would accept that.

The end game is No Deal and to be honest, it's not the end of the world, in fact the way the world trades has advanced a great deal since the 70s, containerisation and electronic tracking are big game changers, the EU represented less than half of our trade and declining.....

A Canada style deal is a step in the right direction.....

 

[DarloRich]

Its what it is, No Deal Brexit is likely to happen, instead we will have to be pragmatic...

At present the EU is trying to keep the UK as close to the EU as if it never left, therefore negotiating from top downward trying to keep everything including fishing, the UK wants to negotiate from ground upward.

If this was a non EU state, ground upward would be how negotiation would have been done as there is nothing lost and everything to be gained.

The EU is also hampered by the demands of individual member states such as France demand maintaining access to an independent country's water as if nothings changed, no other country would accept that.

The end game is No Deal and to be honest, it's not the end of the world, in fact the way the world trades has advanced a great deal since the 70s, containerisation and electronic tracking are big game changers, the EU represented less than half of our trade and declining.....

A Canada style deal is a step in the right direction.....

oh dear - this is just such simplistic thinking. I cant see how we think we are negotiating ( whether bottom up or top down or sideways) from a position of any strength or have any mature sensible leadership and direction on how this plays out. Focusing on silly things like fish is just stupid and wastes time and effort but plays into some sort of brexit/sovereignty/controls of borders fantasy. It is maddening that we waste time on this rather than the wider economic interests of the country.

 

[Vespa]

What's so simple about it ? It's fact.

oh dear - this is just such simplistic thinking.

Whats simplistic about it ? We ARE heading toward a No Deal Brexit, staying stuck in 2016 is getting us nowhere.

The arguments have been going on with no ground given by either side, 4 years have been wasted in confusion and recriminations, we are still in a limbo, no business can make any long term plan because they don't know what is happening next and THAT'S more damaging than a Brexit, with a No Deal scenario at least they create a business plan to deal with it, all business wants certainty for long term planning.

 

[najaB]

At present the EU is trying to keep the UK as close to the EU as if it never left, therefore negotiating from top downward trying to keep everything including fishing, the UK wants to negotiate from ground upward.

If this was a non EU state, ground upward would be how negotiation would have been done as there is nothing lost and everything to be gained.

But that is exactly the point - the EU negotiation position has been the sensible one: the less that the UK and the EU diverge the better it is for everyone. And that used to be the UK's claimed position as well.

I'm old enough to remember being told that "Yes, of course the UK will still be in the customs union" (we would even be willing to pay for access!) and "It will be the simplest trade negotiations ever" because the UK wanted to retain access to the single market. Remember the talk of the Norway model?

 

[DarloRich]

The arguments have been going on with no ground given by either side, 4 years have been wasted in confusion and recriminations, we are still in a limbo, no business can make any long term plan because they don't know what is happening next and THAT'S more damaging than a Brexit, with a No Deal scenario at least they create a business plan to deal with it, all business wants certainty for long term planning.

I agree and I have thought since Johnson came to power no deal was the direction of travel damaging as i think that will be. Confusion reigns supreme and time has been wasted because of silliness and an unwillingness to set out what the reality of brexit actually is.

For many businesses their no deal business plan is quite simple: close or move.

 

[class ep-09]

What's so simple about it ? It's fact.



Whats simplistic about it ? We ARE heading toward a No Deal Brexit, staying stuck in 2016 is getting us nowhere.

The arguments have been going on with no ground given by either side, 4 years have been wasted in confusion and recriminations, we are still in a limbo, no business can make any long term plan because they don't know what is happening next and THAT'S more damaging than a Brexit, with a No Deal scenario at least they create a business plan to deal with it, all business wants certainty for long term planning.

No Deal scenario business plans are simple : pack and go .
Just look at the brexit supporting Mr Radcliffe - gone to Monaco , bought old Mercedes / Smart car plant in France and will be making Land Rover Defenders .
Bridgend in Wales - left high and dry .

 

[radamfi]

On Radio Ulster just now: Unionists are spitting blood and saying the DUP are finished in the north.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm old enough to remember being told that "Yes, of course the UK will still be in the customs union" (we would even be willing to pay for access!) and "It will be the simplest trade negotiations ever" because the UK wanted to retain access to the single market. Remember the talk of the Norway model?

I still think that if Theresa May hadn't have decided to give in to the Brexit Ultras in her own party (at least I assume that's what happened) and set her extreme red lines so early that there was probably scope to build a consensus in Parliament and, perhaps more importantly the country at large, around a deal based on the customs union as being something that respected the vote to leave but also recognised that it wasn't a barnstorming victory either. But pretty much as soon as she set her red lines we were always going to end up here with either no deal at all or a Brexit far harder than anything that was ever promised by Vote Leave and its mainstream proponents during the referendum campaign.

But we are where we are. The Brexit Ultras rule the roost and demand an ever harder Brexit, various sections of the media cheer them on and two Prime Ministers have either been unable to resist them or have felt it to be to their personal political advantage to toe the line.

 

[nlogax]

At present the EU is trying to keep the UK as close to the EU as if it never left, therefore negotiating from top downward trying to keep everything including fishing, the UK wants to negotiate from ground upward.

Yes. It's almost like the UK was a part of the EU and had a huge trading relationship which it wanted to maintain.

 

[Chester1]

I still think that if Theresa May hadn't have decided to give in to the Brexit Ultras in her own party (at least I assume that's what happened) and set her extreme red lines so early that there was probably scope to build a consensus in Parliament and, perhaps more importantly the country at large, around a deal based on the customs union as being something that respected the vote to leave but also recognised that it wasn't a barnstorming victory either. But pretty much as soon as she set her red lines we were always going to end up here with either no deal at all or a Brexit far harder than anything that was ever promised by Vote Leave and its mainstream proponents during the referendum campaign.

But we are where we are. The Brexit Ultras rule the roost and demand an ever harder Brexit, various sections of the media cheer them on and two Prime Ministers have either been unable to resist them or have felt it to be to their personal political advantage to toe the line.

Unfortunately leave and remain are tribes and trying to advocate for anything other than the purist position obtains the ire of both sides. They are more anti the other side than for anything. I argued for a customs union but it was pointless. It would have required brexiteers to accept they couldn't get everything they want and remainers to accept that brexit (and end of FOM) was happening.

 

[nlogax]

Unfortunately leave and remain are tribes and trying to advocate for anything other than the purist position obtains the ire of both sides. They are more anti the other side than for anything. I argued for a customs union but it was pointless. It would have required brexiteers to accept they couldn't get everything they want and remainers to accept that brexit (and end of FOM) was happening.

Not all remainers were so hellbent on reversing the result. Once the referendum was lost I put my faith the customs union option to take precedence, especially as it had been touted all over the news beforehand from the Leave camp.

And now here we are on the brink of absolutely nothing at all. It's madness.

 

[ainsworth74]

Unfortunately leave and remain are tribes and trying to advocate for anything other than the purist position obtains the ire of both sides. They are more anti the other side than for anything. I argued for a customs union but it was pointless. It would have required brexiteers to accept they couldn't get everything they want and remainers to accept that brexit (and end of FOM) was happening.

Quite. Battle lines were drawn early, I would argue by the Brexiteers first and more strongly (see May's red lines), and from then on we've just been on our way to the hardest possible Brexit but before we ended up in, what has felt like, the Brexit forever war of the last few years there was probably scope for a consensus that was acceptable to the majority of both sides that might have had some scope for avoiding the worst of the damage, respecting the wishes of the vote and not fracturing the country even more than it already was. But we didn't have the politicians who were capable of such a thing.

 

[najaB]

Not all remainers were so hellbent on reversing the result. Once the referendum was lost I put my faith the customs union option to take precedence, especially as it had been touted all over the news beforehand from the Leave camp.

Same here. I disagree with the way the referendum was conducted but accepted that unless and until the question was put to the public again then the result would stand. Would I have been happy with a "soft Brexit"? No, not really. Would I prefer it over a "hard Brexit"? Yes, every day of the week and twice on Sundays!

 

[DarloRich]

Not all remainers were so hellbent on reversing the result. Once the referendum was lost I put my faith the customs union option to take precedence, especially as it had been touted all over the news beforehand from the Leave camp.

And now here we are on the brink of absolutely nothing at all. It's madness.

Agree - Personally I think we voted, very stupidly, to leave so that is what we should do. In saying that I would like the "deal" that was promised by the vote leave camp. They were telling the truth in all this. Weren't they?

 

[nlogax]

Same here. I disagree with the way the referendum was conducted but accepted that unless and until the question was put to the public again then the result would stand. Would I have been happy with a "soft Brexit"? No, not really. Would I prefer it over a "hard Brexit"? Yes, every day of the week and twice on Sundays!

Agree - Personally I think we voted, very stupidly, to leave so that is what we should do. In saying that I would like the "deal" that was promised by the vote leave camp. They were telling the truth in all this. Weren't they?

I can't help but think 'bait and switch' even though I know it's way more complex than that.

 

[yorksrob]

I personally don't think it's reasonable for the EU to hold the UK to a more onerous trading arrangement than that offered to other third party countries such as Canada etc.

I don't agree with the argument that "we're more integrated so will be able to take more advantage from such an arrangement" as surely the point of any set of trading rules is to come to the maximum extent of trade that can be facilitated within them, therefore even if the UK might start off in a better position than Canada, for example, surely the point is that Canada will one day catch up with that level of trade.

Things such as fishing etc, I agree there is an additional geographical element to consider, so we should perhaps compromise more on that side of things.

 

[edwin_m]

Same here. I disagree with the way the referendum was conducted but accepted that unless and until the question was put to the public again then the result would stand. Would I have been happy with a "soft Brexit"? No, not really. Would I prefer it over a "hard Brexit"? Yes, every day of the week and twice on Sundays!

Agree - Personally I think we voted, very stupidly, to leave so that is what we should do. In saying that I would like the "deal" that was promised by the vote leave camp. They were telling the truth in all this. Weren't they?

I believe the referendum result should have counted for very little because the details of the Leave option were so vague, and even then its supporters had to resort to outright lies to get it through by a small margin. But considering the damage that it will cause to our economy and international standing, rather than just accepting it the response should surely be to argue for a new referendum to endorse or reject an agreed deal. Instead, we were committed to this course of action a year ago and we still don't know what our position will be in a few weeks time.

 

[class ep-09]

I personally don't think it's reasonable for the EU to hold the UK to a more onerous trading arrangement than that offered to other third party countries such as Canada etc.

I don't agree with the argument that "we're more integrated so will be able to take more advantage from such an arrangement" as surely the point of any set of trading rules is to come to the maximum extent of trade that can be facilitated within them, therefore even if the UK might start off in a better position than Canada, for example, surely the point is that Canada will one day catch up with that level of trade.

Things such as fishing etc, I agree there is an additional geographical element to consider, so we should perhaps compromise more on that side of things.

The EU is reasonable and protects its members agains unfair competition .

If UK was still a member it would be protected in this same way as well.

Why EU should bend to the wishes of UK?

I get that there is a lot of trade between UK and EU ( money wise) but that is still approx 10% of the total trade EU does between all other member states .

For UK loosing 40-50% of its trade in no deal scenario. seems to be as stupid as it gets.

 

[yorksrob]

The EU is reasonable and protects its members agains unfair competition .

If UK was still a member it would be protected in this same way as well.

Why EU should bend to the wishes of UK?

I get that there is a lot of trade between UK and EU ( money wise) but that is still approx 10% of the total trade EU does between all other member states .

For UK loosing 40-50% of its trade in no deal scenario. seems to be as stupid as it gets.

That doesn't really address what I'm saying though.

I understand that the EU wants to protect its members against unfair competition, which is why I don't doubt that it is doing so in it's trade deals with other third party countries. Those mechanisms would work in the same way with this country as it will with them.

 

[birchesgreen]

Unfortunately leave and remain are tribes and trying to advocate for anything other than the purist position obtains the ire of both sides. They are more anti the other side than for anything. I argued for a customs union but it was pointless. It would have required brexiteers to accept they couldn't get everything they want and remainers to accept that brexit (and end of FOM) was happening.

Remainers were treated like they didn't exist for a long time, their concerns were completely ignored or derided (remember the "citizen of nowhere" rubbish?) so its a bit rich putting the blame on them now.

Anyway glad its going so well...

 

[najaB]

I personally don't think it's reasonable for the EU to hold the UK to a more onerous trading arrangement than that offered to other third party countries such as Canada etc.

And if that's what they were doing I'd agree. It's the UK that wants more favourable terms than the EU is offering to other countries without offering any more than those countries do.

"No deal" means trading with the EU on WTO terms which is the default offered to third-party countries and has been on the table since day one. Any deal that offers better than WTO terms is predicated on concessions on both sides, the issue is that the UK government has been unwilling to give as much as it gets.

 

[yorksrob]

And if that's what they were doing I'd agree. It's the UK that wants more favourable terms than the EU is offering to other countries without offering any more than those countries do.

"No deal" means trading with the EU on WTO terms which is the default offered to third-party countries, any deal that offers better than WTO terms is predicated on concessions on both sides.

Are we ? (genuine question)

I've read that we're aiming for a Canada style deal (not that I trust either side to report particularly accurately).

 

[najaB]

I've read that we're aiming for a Canada style deal (not that I trust either side to report particularly accurately).

There's no such thing as a "<insert country here> style" deal. Each deal is negotiated separately and depends on the goods/services traded between the countries involved. And in any case, if we got exactly the same deal as Canada has it wouldn't help us much as it doesn't cover much in the way of services, especially financial services which would still largely sink The City as a financial hub.

 

[yorksrob]

There's no such thing as a "<insert country here> style" deal. Each deal is negotiated separately and depends on the goods/services traded between the countries involved. And in any case, if we got exactly the same deal as Canada has it wouldn't help us much as it doesn't cover much in the way of services, especially financial services which would still largely sink The City as a financial hub.

I think it's more the mechanisms of how disputes are resolved etc. There will be a particular way of resolving them neutrally that operates with the arrangements agreed with Canada, Japan etc. If we're proposing to use the same types of mechanism, then I don't see how either side can be agrrieved.

BTW, when we say "Canada style" agreement, I believe it's in terms of one based on manufactured and agricultural goods. As far as I'm aware, we're not proposing to include services, which is already a concession to the EU, as that's an area of strenth for us, whereas manufacuring is a strong area for Europe.