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Brexit matters

najaB

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The time for arguing whether Brexit is a good or bad idea, or for what purpose, has long since gone. It has happened and now we must make the best of it.
And part of "making the best of it" is recognising that the current arrangement is not workable in the long term and altering it. Again, Brexit is not a point in time, but a long process.
I thought it pretty obvious at the time of the referendum that the act of Brexit was going to be fairly traumatic and unpleasant, no matter what the long term prospects might be.
Thanks for admitting that the pro-Brexit side lied to the the electorate. It's rare to see such honesty.
 
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jon0844

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The messaging really has changed over the years...

Haha!

Yes, now all you seem to see online is people proudly boasting that we haven't all died yet and getting excited when an MP announces some continuity agreement as if it's a great new benefit: 'Great news; you know you could drive in Europe with your UK driving licence? Well you still can!!'.

Where are all the new things we couldn't do before? We surely didn't leave just to have most things the same and a bunch of additional paperwork to keep those lazy small businesses busy during lockdown?

I honestly think we left just to stick it to the remainers and EU. 'Ha, you lost! Get over it' seems to be the only 'win'.

Not if the Johnson is to be believed with his "f**k business" comment. His hedge fund and disaster capitalist mates are no doubt f rubbing their hands at the moment though.

I think an awful lot of people didn't have a clue what shorting was until it became big news in the USA (and look how the regulators came to the aid of those hedge funds literally making companies go bust to profit) and can't see how Brexit was very much the same principle.

Disaster capitalism is something a lot of people don't seem to appreciate, and how it can be incredibly lucrative - not just for short term profits on currency speculation, but swooping in to acquire the firms you helped go bust.

Ironically, once all of this is done then it would likely be the same people who will want more stability and security (so being more open to better trading terms with the EU or perhaps even rejoining) so they can benefit from a recovery.
 
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RT4038

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Why will they suffer? When you have products people want, people will still buy them but simply have to pay more and jump through more hoops. Do you think people will stop buying BMW cars or drink French wine?
If BMWs are more expensive then they will probably sell fewer of them. Maybe that is not suffering? There has been a domestic car manufacturing industry before, and this could happen again, in time. Sixty years ago very little wine of any origin was drunk in this country - habits change, particularly if motivated by economics.

Strange that so many decry the de-industrialisation of this country, complaining that the Government of the day did so little to prevent it, (co-incident on our joining of the EEC) but it is completely impossible for us now to do any of this manufacturing now. Maybe there is some opportunity, unencumbered by historic assets, infrastructure and working practices?
 

Typhoon

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I don't think they would want England back in the fold,
The French, at least, might insist on something like 'The_Burghers_of_Calais' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Burghers_of_Calais.
They would probably have one or two in mind: Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Farage.
It is in the interests of the EU to enforce every regulation to the nth degree to harm the UK, and not only economically.
Precisely, and predictably. Pour encourager les autres. (Or, to be more precise, pour decourager les autres, to discourage the others *)
But I'm sure things would be made as easy as possible for both Scotland and the Six Counties as part of a 32-county Republic of Ireland.
Exactly. Red carpet, tick; honours for Sturgeon, tick; opportunities for Scottish fishermen, tick; etc. She's played her hand well (so far).

The supermarket featured in this report specialised in providing British products to British people living abroad, and it was alarming to see all the empty shelves.
Just saw a similar story on Sky News, and there's a fourth option - they buy from Irish suppliers (almost the same) and bypass the land bridge entirely by shipping through Rosslare.
I would think that this is the best solution for them. Increase costs but at least they would have the goods. These people have set up small businesses in Europe that serve a niche market (in the same way that 'Continental Food Store' and others do here). In the Costas it might be worthwhile setting up some distribution centres but in somewhere like Belgium there is unlikely to be the demand, most of the Eurocrats have come home. (Have we given them jobs?) Not only were these shops provide a service for ex-pats but it 'flew the flag' as far as locals were concerned.

* - just trying to establish some links with La Belle France. In case anyone was thinking of complaining about their actions, there is a precedent, post 1948 we didn't exactly make independence for Commonwealth countries easy.
 

jon0844

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If BMWs are more expensive then they will probably sell fewer of them. Maybe that is not suffering? There has been a domestic car manufacturing industry before, and this could happen again, in time. Sixty years ago very little wine of any origin was drunk in this country - habits change, particularly if motivated by economics.

Strange that so many decry the de-industrialisation of this country, complaining that the Government of the day did so little to prevent it, (co-incident on our joining of the EEC) but it is completely impossible for us now to do any of this manufacturing now. Maybe there is some opportunity, unencumbered by historic assets, infrastructure and working practices?

Yes they might sell less. Or the might not because BMW, Mercedes, Audi etc are desirable brands and many cars sell to more affluent people who might actually like the thought of more exclusivity. Many people got rather upset when the BMW 3 series became more common than a Ford Mondeo, so they switched to Audi.. but I digress!

The pandemic will hide the reality for a bit though as many people aren't driving and adding mileage to their existing cars, some may be working from home from now on, and a load of other factors. All car sales are down right now.

Of course we could make cars here and we could stop drinking wine... but I don't remember Brexit being about us giving things up. We were getting the best deal in history and would become stronger and richer.
 

najaB

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If BMWs are more expensive then they will probably sell fewer of them. Maybe that is not suffering?
The UK represents about 9% of BWM group sales. If they lost all their UK sales, it would hurt their bottom line, but I doubt it would affect their long-term viability.
There has been a domestic car manufacturing industry before, and this could happen again, in time
I really get the feeling that a lot of Brexit-supporting people think that leaving the EU is going to turn the clocks back to the 1950s. It won't.
Strange that so many decry the de-industrialisation of this country, complaining that the Government of the day did so little to prevent it, (co-incident on our joining of the EEC) but it is completely impossible for us now to do any of this manufacturing now. Maybe there is some opportunity, unencumbered by historic assets, infrastructure and working practices?
Blimey, maybe it was the 1850s given the rolling back of worker's rights!
 

davetheguard

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The time for arguing whether Brexit is a good or bad idea, or for what purpose, has long since gone. (Bit like the interminable arguments over the Beeching Plan elsewhere on this forum).

No it hasn't, and those responsible won't be forgiven either. If you don't look back at history and learn from it, you carry on making the same mistakes.
 

RT4038

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And part of "making the best of it" is recognising that the current arrangement is not workable in the long term and altering it. Again, Brexit is not a point in time, but a long process.

Thanks for admitting that the pro-Brexit side lied to the the electorate. It's rare to see such honesty.
Fully agree that Brexit is not a point in time, but a long process. As of course joining the EEC and its subsequent morphing to the EU was, evolving over 40 years.

I think the pro-Brexit side presented the most favourable (not necessarily the most likely) possible outcome of Brexit. That is the sort of thing that politicians of all hues do. Who is going to vote for anything where there are major downsides to the fore?
However, as in all things, what politicians say has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

No it hasn't, and those responsible won't be forgiven either. If you don't look back at history and learn from it, you carry on making the same mistakes.

As there are those who haven't forgiven those responsible for the UK joining the EEC or its subsequent change to the EU. However, in 45 years time your view of Brexit might be different too.
 

jon0844

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Brexit IS good for some people, just not those who are now being affected. Farage works in finance, but he secured the votes by producing posters of brown people 'invading' the UK and suggesting we were at breaking point. Others, who likely seek to undermine the NHS*, promised £350m a week. We had lots of pictures of the union flag and talk of the 'good old days'.

Trump wanted to do the same things; but he's gone and the country can recover. Brexit will be around even after our politicians go and move to whatever country they have dual-nationality with.

* I am fearful that post pandemic, the struggles of the NHS won't see the Government seek to invest more in our healthcare, but rather point out that the troubles we had is exactly why we need to attract outside 'investment' and - bam - there begins the breakup of the NHS.
 

RT4038

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Brexit IS good for some people, just not those who are now being affected. Farage works in finance, but he secured the votes by producing posters of brown people 'invading' the UK and suggesting we were at breaking point. Others, who likely seek to undermine the NHS*, promised £350m a week. We had lots of pictures of the union flag and talk of the 'good old days'.
Of course Brexit IS good for some people. But they weren't going to get sufficient people to vote for them for that reason. So they tap into other unresolved issues/grievances which have a resonance amongst a proportion of the population. Pretty text book stuff really.
 

edwin_m

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And other, viable, businesses will start up.
There has been a domestic car manufacturing industry before, and this could happen again, in time.
Far fewer viable businesses than there would have been if we'd stayed in the EU. Businesses that have a choice between locating in the UK or the EU will almost all go for the bigger market, and with a smaller economy there will be less opportunity in the UK domestic market.
Why will they suffer? When you have products people want, people will still buy them but simply have to pay more and jump through more hoops. Do you think people will stop buying BMW cars or drink French wine?
Some in the UK may not be able to afford such things, or at least buy them less frequently.
Strange that so many decry the de-industrialisation of this country, complaining that the Government of the day did so little to prevent it, (co-incident on our joining of the EEC) but it is completely impossible for us now to do any of this manufacturing now. Maybe there is some opportunity, unencumbered by historic assets, infrastructure and working practices?
The de-industrialisation of this country goes back at least as far as when we lost an Empire that we could force to buy our products. And de-industrialisation owes far more to the policies of Westminster governments than to anything related to the EU - after all Germany seems to have done all right...
Fully agree that Brexit is not a point in time, but a long process. As of course joining the EEC and its subsequent morphing to the EU was, evolving over 40 years.

I think the pro-Brexit side presented the most favourable (not necessarily the most likely) possible outcome of Brexit. That is the sort of thing that politicians of all hues do. Who is going to vote for anything where there are major downsides to the fore?
However, as in all things, what politicians say has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
They were able to do that because the choice was between a clearly-defined Remain option and a Leave option that could be spun to include rainbows and unicorns. That's one reason why a specific deal should have been worked out and put to a referendum (either the original one or a second one).

If there are major downsides to something then they need to be discussed during the campaign - you can't just ignore them as you seem to suggest. But the Leave option was so vague that it was impossible to pin down what it meant and therefore what was wrong with it.
Of course Brexit IS good for some people. But they weren't going to get sufficient people to vote for them for that reason. So they tap into other unresolved issues/grievances which have a resonance amongst a proportion of the population. Pretty text book stuff really.
Furthermore they used blatant lies (not just promises they couldn't keep, things that were demonstrably proveable to be false at the time they were said) to skew the campaign. Democracy relies on a certain level of truthfulness on the part of politicians. If they can't convince people of their case without lying then how do they believe in that case themselves, unless they have some sort of hidden agenda?
 

RT4038

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The de-industrialisation of this country goes back at least as far as when we lost an Empire that we could force to buy our products. And de-industrialisation owes far more to the policies of Westminster governments than to anything related to the EU - after all Germany seems to have done all right...
A contributing factor of Germany doing all right is because their industries had been destroyed during the Second World War and they were assisted to re-equip with modern technology, rendering us uncompetitive. We spent our reconstruction funds on something else, because our factories were still functioning and there were other political priorities. In hindsight we made mistakes, but that was a different place and time. There is maybe an opportunity for us now.
They were able to do that because the choice was between a clearly-defined Remain option and a Leave option that could be spun to include rainbows and unicorns. That's one reason why a specific deal should have been worked out and put to a referendum (either the original one or a second one).
That was just not a practical option. Negotiating a deal that the other side [who wants a reject vote] knows was going to be put to a referendum is not going to get you the best deal, plus the Brexiteers could not possibly risk another referendum - this was their one off opportunity to get Brexit. It would likely never happen again (in their lifetimes at least)
Furthermore they used blatant lies (not just promises they couldn't keep, things that were demonstrably proveable to be false at the time they were said) to skew the campaign. Democracy relies on a certain level of truthfulness on the part of politicians. If they can't convince people of their case without lying then how do they believe in that case themselves, unless they have some sort of hidden agenda?
What would you have done if you were a Brexiteer? There was no way of not getting a 'punishment' deal from the EU (and being free of the strictures of the CU/SM) . Why would they; they want to discourage leavers?. Of course there is some sort of hidden agenda!
 

ainsworth74

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And de-industrialisation owes far more to the policies of Westminster governments than to anything related to the EU - after all Germany seems to have done all right...

It's the thing that keeps striking me about this whole farce. I think the majority (if not all) the complaints and issues that mean that Brexit was 'required' actually end up being failings of the Westminster government. Choices made by Westminster, which they weren't forced into by the EU, often seem to end up seeming to be a driving force. I can only imagine (or should that be worry) what will happen when many people's lot are not improved in the ways that they believed they would be by removing the EU from the equation.
 

nlogax

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It's the thing that keeps striking me about this whole farce. I think the majority (if not all) the complaints and issues that mean that Brexit was 'required' actually end up being failings of the Westminster government. Choices made by Westminster, which they weren't forced into by the EU, often seem to end up seeming to be a driving force. I can only imagine (or should that be worry) what will happen when many people's lot are not improved in the ways that they believed they would be by removing the EU from the equation.
I fear that sort of mass realisation is an entire generation away from occurring when the UK looks at its EU neighbours and asks itself 'why are we doing so badly compared to those across the channel?'
 

jon0844

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I fear that sort of mass realisation is an entire generation away from occurring when the UK looks at its EU neighbours and asks itself 'why are we doing so badly compared to those across the channel?'

We'll blame the EU until the end of time, even though the whole idea was we'd be stronger out and free to do what we want. If the EU has no control over us anymore, how can they be to blame? They need us more than we need them and all that...
 

edwin_m

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What would you have done if you were a Brexiteer? There was no way of not getting a 'punishment' deal from the EU (and being free of the strictures of the CU/SM) . Why would they; they want to discourage leavers?. Of course there is some sort of hidden agenda!
So you're agreeing that it could only be done by deceiving the voters. Perhaps you could shed some light on what the "end" is that justifies those "means"? Because I can't see any worthwhile benefit whatever, despite spending five years looking.
 

jon0844

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Saw a nice joke today...

Give a man a fish and he’ll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he’ll spend decades building up an export business only for it to be ruined by the Tories.
 

RT4038

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So you're agreeing that it could only be done by deceiving the voters. Perhaps you could shed some light on what the "end" is that justifies those "means"? Because I can't see any worthwhile benefit whatever, despite spending five years looking.
Well, we are both men of the world?
Take a look at virtually any secession in world history - Brexit, Scottish Independence, Catalonia, Colonial, break up of Yugoslavia, Katanga from the Congo etc. you will find any number of unresolved local grievances/unfair treatment etc as the catalyst for the secession. But do you think that these popular issues really galvanise politicians into action? They are merely the front to get a majority of the general population behind the idea. So you must look deep, sometimes very deep, for the real reasons and I can guarantee that you will usually find (a) individuals or groups who see a new financial advantage and/or power for themselves, and/or (b) individuals or groups wishing to preserve their own existing wealth creation arrangements and existing wealth and power.
The interests of the general population, thee and me, are way in the background.
Sorry to be so cynical, and I will leave you to do some digging.
 

DerekC

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A contributing factor of Germany doing all right is because their industries had been destroyed during the Second World War and they were assisted to re-equip with modern technology, rendering us uncompetitive. We spent our reconstruction funds on something else, because our factories were still functioning and there were other political priorities. In hindsight we made mistakes, but that was a different place and time. There is maybe an opportunity for us now.
That probably had some validity in the early post-war period, but much more important in the long term is the difference in cultures and attitudes to manufacturing between Germany and the UK. In Germany engineering and manufacturing are seen as positive things to do which add value to the country in the long term. Engineers have status equivalent to lawyers, doctors and so on. Companies stay German (and often family) owned. Money is invested in product improvement. In the UK manufacturing was not seen that way. The upper echelons of society thought it was a second class occupation and only worth getting interested in if there was a lot of money to be made, preferably by buying and selling companies rather than getting your hands dirty by actually designing and making something. Good ideas were there to be exploited in the short term, sold on and if a foreign buyer offered more, so be it. The Thatcher revolution made the whole thing worse by focusing the country's talent on money making rather than adding value, but it was very consistent with British long term attitudes. I hope things are changing, but I am not convinced yet.
 

najaB

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A contributing factor of Germany doing all right is because their industries had been destroyed during the Second World War and they were assisted to re-equip with modern technology, rendering us uncompetitive.
Contributing, but not determinative. Much more important is the fact that German society puts much more value on jobs where you get your hands dirty than we do.
 

RT4038

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That probably had some validity in the early post-war period, but much more important in the long term is the difference in cultures and attitudes to manufacturing between Germany and the UK. In Germany engineering and manufacturing are seen as positive things to do which add value to the country in the long term. Engineers have status equivalent to lawyers, doctors and so on. Companies stay German (and often family) owned. Money is invested in product improvement. In the UK manufacturing was not seen that way. The upper echelons of society thought it was a second class occupation and only worth getting interested in if there was a lot of money to be made, preferably by buying and selling companies rather than getting your hands dirty by actually designing and making something. Good ideas were there to be exploited in the short term, sold on and if a foreign buyer offered more, so be it. The Thatcher revolution made the whole thing worse by focusing the country's talent on money making rather than adding value, but it was very consistent with British long term attitudes. I hope things are changing, but I am not convinced yet.
Contributing, but not determinative. Much more important is the fact that German society puts much more value on jobs where you get your hands dirty than we do.
Unfortunately we are who we are, and will have to play to our strengths, or positively deal with our weaknesses. However, we are also a pretty resourceful bunch, often resulting in success in spite of ourselves.
 

matacaster

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So you're agreeing that it could only be done by deceiving the voters. Perhaps you could shed some light on what the "end" is that justifies those "means"? Because I can't see any worthwhile benefit whatever, despite spending five years looking.
Heath taking us into the EU was a deception on a monumental scale. People voted for a trading allian e, like a glorified efta, not an EU superstate.
 

RT4038

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Heath taking us into the EU was a deception on a monumental scale. People voted for a trading allian e, like a glorified efta, not an EU superstate.
I don't think that is quite true. Heath took us into the EEC trading alliance, and a referendum was held on that subject in 1975. The EEC morphing into the EU nascent superstate was the 1992 Maastricht treaty on the watch of Major, and then consolidated by the Lisbon Treaty in 2007 on the watch of Blair. No referendums were held for these Treaties; our elected representatives took the decisions for us.
Seems unlikely that the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties were on the horizon when Heath took us into the EEC, so it seems unfair to accuse him of deception on this issue.
 

class ep-09

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Heath taking us into the EU was a deception on a monumental scale. People voted for a trading allian e, like a glorified efta, not an EU superstate.

Wrong.

EU did not exist then.

What existed then was, what brexiters call “free trading area” or “common market “, which they claim , they were happy to stay in before brexit.

What they do not admit, is that by leaving SM and CU , we left what they wanted to stay inside of .

That is just idiotic.
 

GusB

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The interests of the general population, thee and me, are way in the background.
The interests of thee and me were very much in the foreground.

The biggest problem was that the likes of Farage managed to dupe a load of, let's face it, stupid people into believing that their woes were a result of being in the EU when it clearly wasn't the case.
 

madjack

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I don't think that is quite true. Heath took us into the EEC trading alliance, and a referendum was held on that subject in 1975. The EEC morphing into the EU nascent superstate was the 1992 Maastricht treaty on the watch of Major, and then consolidated by the Lisbon Treaty in 2007 on the watch of Blair. No referendums were held for these Treaties; our elected representatives took the decisions for us.
Seems unlikely that the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties were on the horizon when Heath took us into the EEC, so it seems unfair to accuse him of deception on this issue.
I don't remember - did UK public opinion (polling etc) support Maastricht at the time?
 

nlogax

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The biggest problem was that the likes of Farage managed to dupe a load of, let's face it, stupid people into believing that their woes were a result of being in the EU when it clearly wasn't the case.

I won't go that far and call Brexiteers as stupid. They all made a stupid decision. We've all made stupid decisions in our lifetimes but rarely have such decisions resulted in condemning an entire country to life in the economic and cultural slow lane.
 

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