It’s interesting isn’t it that it was perfectly acceptable for the UK to threaten to break international law but the EU makes a silly mistake by threatening to enact a legal border stoppage, and Brexiteers jump all over it as reason for breaking the agreement that BoJo signed up to. BoJo clearly has no intention of actually enacting the NI protocol fully even though he agreed to it. With BoJo it bluff and double bluff until someone else finally calls his bluffs. I can imagine other countries are looking at the UK and thinking we really need to tread carefully in anything we agree with the UK going forward as the UK Govt can simply no be trusted. Probably why hardly any trade deals have been agreed except tagging onto deals the EU had already made.
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Brexit matters
- Thread starter Xenophon PCDGS
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Such as the Trans Pacific Free Trade Agreement we are in the process of joining whos member countries have mostly signed agreements with us already in any case?
We don't need an FTA with the US. We will get one anyway once Biden reverses Trumps policy not to join, however much Coveney goes over to Washington wailing and whining.
The ECJ has no practical way of enforcing its rulings short of erecting an inner Irish border which will be popcorn time. We have little to lose by revoking the Irish protocol altogether, as the attitude of the EU in things like not granting financial equivalence means there is little to gain from continuing the charade.
The whole remainer argument is a gigantic appeal to authority hoping that the all powerful EU beat the recalcitrant UK into line like they did Greece. We are not Greece, and the EU is not all powerful, so they will have a long wait now that the most effective method of bringing Britain to heel, fifth columnists in its government and civil service, has failed.
That is not how I see it. I've looked back at past posts. I assume #1986 and #1991 are sarcastic, #2003 is pretty blistering anti-Brexiteer.
I reckon that the first part of the quote above is so far tongue-in-cheek that it is danger of bursting through the skin, I may be wrong but the use of excreta tends to point that way.
#2035 pours doubt on the post made by another contributor given below
It is this claim, made in post #2020, which both #2034 and #2037 discredit.
If the EU pulls out of the trade agreement signed before Christmas just watch the pound fall like a stone. The UK needs friends from around the world very very quickly. Begging to join the CPTPP which means sacrificing sovereignty which Brexiteers claimed was so so important. Having to follow rules of a club the UK had no say in creating. And this mad ERG notion of creating a freedom of movement pact with economies thousands and thousands of miles away. You carry on reading your Brexit propaganda won’t you!
I agree we don't need a free-trade agreement with the USA, we don't need one with anyone. But it would go a long way to undoing the economic damage of leaving the world's largest free trade area.
Different sources give different figures, but they all agree that we do around £110B worth of trade with the TPP-11 countries at the moment (e.g. https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/UK-to-apply-for-TPP-membership-Monday-for-bridge-to-Asia), as compared with around £640B with the EU. That's an awful big shortfall to make up, and what do we make/sell that they can get cheaper from us than they can from each other?
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
No they dont my claim was that all the large EU states except Germany were in a worse situation, which the data backs, unless you treat places like Holland as large states
Only in a scenario where all or most of that 640 billion vanish which is highly unlikely.
When CPTPP decide to have a parliament, court, flag, legal personality then I will call you back.
You were right!
REVUpminster
Member
I love the way remoaners are saying the UK is begging to join this or that trade agreement. For years the UK begged the EU to reform and nothing happened.
YorkshireBear
Established Member
- Joined
- 23 Jul 2010
- Messages
- 9,103
I thought we'd given up on the use of remoaners.... And the same goes for anyone using brexidiots.
It's rude and disrespectful.
This all started with BoJo refusing to give the EU ambassador full diplomatic status and the tit for tat has just continued on and on. I think it’s safe to say that UK relations with Europe are very very bad right now and will probably continue to be difficult for the foreseeable future. The Telegraph and Express are both briefing against the EU on a daily basis stoking up hatred. I don’t actually believe that some kind of conflict between the EU and UK is that far fetched right now.
birchesgreen
Established Member
AstraZenaca's vaccine does seem to have a side-effect of turning EU politicians crazy.
This isn't the EU. It is the individual countries. The EU body, the European Medicines Agency, is supportive of the AZ vaccine.
With the way things are going right now I think it’s highly likely that 640 billion of trade with the EU will be decimated. Already exports to the EU are down by a massive amount. The EU is exercising its full sovereign rights to impose full checks on goods from the UK, the UK keeps on putting full checks off and off. The CPTPP has a commission that decides on the rules of the trade bloc. We had no say in the creation of those rules. We are sacrificing sovereignty by asking to join. If the UK was such a big and powerful nation we would be setting up our own trading blocks from scratch where we decide the rules. Not quitting one club we had major influence in to then beg to join another club.
The refusal to grant full diplomatic status to the EU ambassador and the refusal to fully implement the NI protocol and delay it and delay it has not gone down well in the EU Parliament.
birchesgreen
Established Member
I like to think the architects of this mayhem will one day pay but we all know they won't.
Since the vaccine has been mentioned. It is important to remember that conflict is between the EU and AstraZeneca, not between the EU and the UK. Also, the pandemic is not a competition.
The EU has not ratified the agreement yet, and recently postponed the ratification.
VauxhallandI
Established Member
I’m afraid to our Brexit chums it’s all they have to hold on to as everything else is crock of lies
Worst estimates I have seen suggest around a 30% loss of EU trade, which is also at the lower end of estimates for a No Deal, so that's around 200 billion which yes its a lot to make up but not insurmountable over time.
I was a Remainer but frankly the way the EU have behaved since the new year I wouldn't be voting to Re-Join that's for sure, and clearly for at least the life of this government that's not going to happen, and I doubt that any other Government would consider going beyond perhaps a closer trade agreement with the EU in my lifetime.
As for CPTPP you don't get the EU Parliament, the Euro, a Central Bank, Common Agricultural Policy, a desire for closer integration etc, as for EU ambassador status well when I look on a Map it doesn't show the EU as country well not yet anyway.
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Yes but plenty of Brits seemed to think it’s the “British Vaccine” and in some twisted and insular way think the EU are trying to “get one up on us”.
There are some very big flaws in your argument.
Firstly unless the EU parliament ratifies the deal agreed before Christmas then the UK has no deal with the EU and we default back to WTO rules. So unless BoJo stops his belligerence over the NI protocol and the EU ambassador's diplomatic status then we probably will have no deal. So then the loss of trade would be a lot higher than 30%. But even £200bn is a massive amount to be made up for through trade deals with other countries. That needs to be recouped now, not over the next however many decades, now!
The relationship between the EU and the UK has been going sour ever since BoJo threatened to break international law. The UK and EU have been briefing against each other ever since. I see both sides as equally guilty of briefing against one another. I believe once the realities of Brexit start to kick in and the UK is shown not to be the powerhouse that Brexiteers believe it is, Britain will be forced into applying to rejoin the EU. Just in the same way as the UK needed to join the EEC originally. The UK currently stands alone as an unproductive mess of an economy that is heavily reliant on services, house prices, and debt. As one journalist put it recently, "every country and economy in the world will want to build back better post-Covid, but the UK is going to do so without any plan or way to accomplish it".
Begging to join the CPTPP is sacrificing the sovereignty that Brexiteers claimed was so important. We will be forced to obey rules we have no hand in making. Seems its perfectly fine for the UK to have to follow rules it didn't create just so long as it wasn't the EU that created them.
I don't believe you ever were a remainer really otherwise you have properly bought into the Telegraph and Express propoganda.
Jam tomorrow then.
REVUpminster
Member
Begging to join the CPTPP. Where does this come from?
Journeyman
Established Member
- Joined
- 16 Apr 2014
- Messages
- 6,295
Johnson's behaviour. He's absolutely desperate because he knows how much Brexit has trashed our exports and made an enemy of our nearest neighbours. It's called "sh*tting in your own back yard".
Funny how (a) we don't get a vote on joining CPTPP, and (b) we have absolutely no say on how it's run, or any of the rules. Still, better than that pesky undemocratic EU, eh?
I don't know if we're begging or not but it is a bit unusual that a country located between the Atlantic and the North Sea is seeking to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Especially as we are joining after it's up and running and so have no say in setting the rules.
I don't think Boris does long term planning. His focus is on rattling his sabre to the EU, to look good to a subset of floating voters in the elections in May. After that he can crumble and go back to a similar, but worse version of the earlier agreement.
If you think the UK will be re-joining the EU in the near future then I think you are deluded.
The EU did themselves no favours in threatening to invoke article 16 over Northern Ireland and seems to show a distinct lack of understanding over the Issues of Northern Ireland. Brexit and Northern Ireland with the UK out of the Single Market and Customs Union was always going to be a difficult problem and only the Brexiteer Hard Nuts would deny that, however both sides now need to dial down the situation and find solutions.
Well if you don't believe I was a Remainer that's fine, I was it has to be said a luke warm Remainer who didn't like many aspects of the EU but voted Remain on the basis of the economic damage it would do, and that ideally it could be reformed from the inside although from what I have seen of the EU of late I don't think there is much chance of that, so in that respect I am beginning to think that perhaps leaving the EU might well be a better long term option but yes there is certainly no certainty in that, and in terms of our industrial and agriculture sectors there are clearly going to be winners and losers.
Boris must know that the consequences of a No deal and WTO are significant for some sectors, otherwise he would have gone for No Deal, But its also very important to the EU as well so I think that when push comes to shove its unlikely it will not be approved by the EU Parliament.
I haven't read every detail of CPTPP but I get the impression that the conditions are not that much more difficult than you would get on most Trade Deals and certainly nothing like the EU that's for sure, I see no issue with looking for a trade deal with CPTPP and unlike the EU you can still do individual trade deals with CPTPP countries if you can not find a satisfactory CPTPP agreement.
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Indeed, it is nothing like the EU single market. Most of the members are also in the other side of the world and don't need anything from us.
Even the EU have a trade deal with some of CPTPP countries so even they clearly think there is some benefit to it.
Yes, they have deals with the countries, but they aren't seeking to join.